a clown car full of millionaires: the 2016 presidential primary thread

If Jeb! were not a Bush and not running for president, I'm sure I would find his palpable awkwardness endearing.

Please stay interested and hang around.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpbQJW3ye6w

he's talking about Kasich, not Huckabee, right? the title of that vid confused me

haha Trump: nastiness gets him to the moral highground top, where he can safely accuse the people under him of being nasty to get ahead. What a dick.

That's how you win Josh. He's a winner.

Boorish swagger and a small million dollar loan is all it takes for the rancid cream to rise to the top.

new thread title

I know we hate all of these people, but if we had to pick one that was the most palateable based on this debate, who would it be? Kasich for me, followed by Rubio or Christie.

I was intrigued about the truth behind the Rubio tax plan since that exchange got pretty testy. Predictably, conservative outlets are claiming Rubio was right, Harwood had to change his claim (and Harwood did tweet a correction about lowest income earners, which is what Rubio started talking about) but Harwood wasn't asking about lowest income earners, the question was explicitly about middle income earners.

Also Jeb is just getting creepy now, with is "warm kiss" and Supergirl is hot. Yeesh, dad.

they were all fucking crazy and had no appeal

I know we hate all of these people, but if we had to pick one that was the most palateable based on this debate, who would it be?

None of them. The entire building should have been bombed into dust - the removal from Earth of multiple political journalists would have been a welcome bonus.

I would love to see Trump offer each of the candidates $1 million cash to drop out of the race. Then as the race progresses he can keep upping the amount. "Kasich ... I'm prepared to offer you $5 million in cash to drop out, no strings attached. You can donate it, spend it, burn it, whatever, I don't care. Now, America needs to know: what is your decision? You can stay in the race if you want, but I'll tell you, you're going to get nothing. You're going to lose, and I'm going to stay $5 million richer than you. But if you take the money ...I don't think there's a person in America who would turn down that kind of cash. I mean, what kind of person says no to $5 million? There are people out there struggling to get by with $500. I mean, you'd have to be cruel to turn down that kind of money ..."

@ benbbag - i've been waffling on this, with all the "bush is doomed!" hype and I'm sort of inclined to agree with you. we'll see what happens coming out of this debate but part of me thinks perry and walker were genuine flukes, and that nobody else here actually sees a genuine advantage in dropping out. a long time ago i made a joke comparison to the survivor challenges where everybody stands on poles in the ocean and waits for everyone else to give up but i think that might actually be a sort of viable model here.

so in the short term, bush is hoping that if he waits it out, some of the even lower-tier people will pack it in, and he'll get at least a portion of their little percentages and stay in the running, vs. cruz and rubio, as the "politician" in the room. maybe right now it looks like all of it would go to rubio but maybe rubio will say something really dumb soon and people will forget his good lines from last night. meantime, all three of those guys have spent the entire race waiting for trump - and now carson - to deflate, because he's just been so big that nobody seriously knows what the race would look like if he weren't there. it seems safe to say his votes would not be going to bush, but the landscape would be different. in cruz's mind, trump support is tea party support and those people are all fundamentally cruz voters, if only trump hadn't showed up in the first place. in rubio's mind, trump support is people who like a winner, and if he can look and feel like WINNER, he's golden. in the medium term bush has to be desperately repeating to himself that the race could turn around again, the trump bubble could burst, and that a few much-ballyhooed bad nights against rubio aren't the kiss of death. in particular he's probably repeating the "this is still the early part of the race and most people aren't paying attention" line, which is, well, kinda true, though if his narrative gets worse coming out of this phase, it's going to taint him with people as they do start paying attention. anyway, he may be wrong, but he's hardly going to drop out tomorrow. jeff probst is not standing on the beach with sponsored brands of beer and pepperoni pizza. it's not like it'll be a more dignified defeat going back to poppy and barbara with his head hanging low now than it will be later.

meanwhile, the waiting game spreads: the little dinky candidates have been figuring that if fiorina got a shot, maybe they could be next, and make it stick - certainly christie has to be thinking that he nailed it last night, and that maybe this is the start of his redemption arc (until the next indictment comes in). none of them are playing with their own money anyway, so hey! huckabee and lolsantorum have to be seething with rage that their core constituencies overlap so much with trump's (and again, now carson's) - but this means that they do have something to gain if those two guys crash and burn finally. so if they've got PAC money to keep them in, why quit now? spend judiciously but mostly just keep waiting, and showing up to things. you never know. in their minds bush might quit, and while he's doing way worse than anyone expected he would after fifteen years of the country hearing that dubya had this killer-app brother waiting in the wings, jeb's numbers still clobber those of paul, kasich, christie, and the nobody team. they're thinking he will bail (hardly looks like rubio or cruz is about to), and they can step up into his spot. that spot is unacceptable to jeb himself, whose only acceptable prize is the nomination... but a perfect spot if you're john kasich and what you want is to be taken seriously enough that someone picks you for VP and/or you come out of the race looking like the candidate the party should have nominated.

my feeling is that nothing else is gonna happen until something really happens. again, gary fucking bauer was flipping pancakes at campaign stops with GWB in january of 2000. i could see jindal dropping out, or jim gilmore finally remembering to send in the form that says he's not really running and it was all an administrative mixup, but i think that's kinda about it.

Jeb and several of the others are playing a long game, each waiting for the others' faults to become more apparent than they already are. Rubio still looks quite green to me, certainly less wooden than Bush, but not much less canned, and he has yet to prove himself able to obtain more than about 15% in an old-leaning party that devotes a lot of energy to hating hispanics. That could change very quickly, but Bush, however weak in presentation or even theory of the case, has a whole lot of powder to keep dry and is still arguably the #1 candidate on paper.

he has the stench of a loser on him and has been completely emasculated by the process. betting markets currently give that #1 candidate on paper 1 in 10 odds of winning the election.

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016repnomination
Marco Rubio 41 %
Donald Trump 20 %
Jeb Bush 10 %
Ben Carson 10 %
Ted Cruz 8 %
Chris Christie 5 %
Carly Fiorina 4 %
Mike Huckabee 1 %
John Kasich 1 %

haha lol xxpost, trump personally offering the candidates money to leave the stage is way better than jeff probst with a peanut butter sandwich. but he should weave it in to his established points about everybody else being bought and sold by super PACs. "i'm making you a better offer than your million dollar donors, because their money gets spent on campaign ads and you don't get any of it. this is YOURS TO KEEP. a coooool million dollars! (fans bills back and forth in his hands) hey, folks in the audience, what should he do? should he stay in the race? or take the money? (pauses to listen) i can't hear you!" etc etc.

I didn't see anyone mention this, but I was thoroughly grossed out by the clip I saw of Cruz avoiding a question altogether so that he could grandstand against the media and then, when the moderators confirmed that he never even tried to respond and that his time was up, started balking at their disinterest in his last minute 'attempt' to answer the question. I wish someone had gone onstage and roundhoused him in the neck. Such an utter turd.

I think if they just paused the campaigns, both dems and republicans, and resumed in the summer, no one would care or miss anything important. Like one of those TV shows that goes on 6 month hiatus then airs the second half its season later.

Second half of its season.

I would love to see Trump offer each of the candidates $1 million cash to drop out of the race. Then as the race progresses he can keep upping the amount. "Kasich ... I'm prepared to offer you $5 million in cash to drop out, no strings attached. You can donate it, spend it, burn it, whatever, I don't care. Now, America needs to know: what is your decision? You can stay in the race if you want, but I'll tell you, you're going to get nothing. You're going to lose, and I'm going to stay $5 million richer than you. But if you take the money ...I don't think there's a person in America who would turn down that kind of cash. I mean, what kind of person says no to $5 million? There are people out there struggling to get by with $500. I mean, you'd have to be cruel to turn down that kind of money ..."

― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, October 29, 2015 10:00 AM (9 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Yes, that would be a nice way to torpedo Trump's candidacy. Also possibly illegal under various state laws.

"Oooh, why was Bernie pulling that gun out of the trunk outside Denny's?"

xp

hilarious that Rubio decried the home of Jim Cramer as part of the liberal media

maybe right now it looks like all of it would go to rubio but maybe rubio will say something really dumb soon and people will forget his good lines from last night

the problem here is that the modern republican party is basically gaffe-proof, 90% of things said in any of the debates should constitute a gaffe, 100% of things ben carson has ever said should be gaffes - republican primary voters don't care. mainstream media conspiracy. they fact checked a donald trump statement about zuckerberg live on air, yes of course he was lying on stage, it wasn't a gotcha moment though because the moderators were part of an evil democratic party plot.

all rubio has to do is not say 'I love hillary clinton'

"betting markets currently give that #1 candidate on paper 1 in 10 odds of winning the election."

Betting markets, like most others, are filled with crowd-following morons.

crowd-following otherwise known as 'election-following'

Yeah. The comments that would have disqualified a candidate before Palin are what play best for the base, therefore there's nothing a candidate can do to get eliminated other than support amnesty for brown skinned people and hug Obama.

crowd-following otherwise known as 'election-following'

― iatee, Thursday, October 29, 2015 10:13 AM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

'election-following' otherwise known as 'shiny-object-following'.

Past Frontrunners ‏@pastfrontrunner 1h1 hour ago
At this point in --
2004: Dean +1
2008 (D): H. Clinton +26.4
(R): Giuliani +11.2
2012: Cain +0.7
http://j.mp/1Nu8icP

Blustery incoherence is the new flag pin.

"I can't help but notice that my colleague at the next podium isn't directly contradicting objective reality. Is this really who you want leading the country?"

All three of those guys have spent the entire race waiting for trump - and now carson - to deflate, because he's just been so big that nobody seriously knows what the race would look like if he weren't there. it seems safe to say his votes would not be going to bush, but the landscape would be different.

Bush is obviously hoping that Trump's voters just fuck off - Carson's voters (want someone reasonable and presidential-looking, have misplaced their glasses) are the bigger problem.

yes and the front runners today are carson and trump, neither of whom will win. nobody at the time thought dean or giuliani were sure things and cain was obviously a joke. bush's poll numbers were bad earlier and people thought he was the #1 candidate. bush's poll numbers are bad now and people don't, because his campaign has been a disaster, he projects the image of a loser and republican party elites have very clearly been distancing himself with him over the last few weeks. that is not 'the number one candidate on paper' anymore.

xp

"distancing himself with him " should be "distancing themselves from him"

"Markets actually perform most poorly relative to projections using polls in the early stages of the campaign. This is clear in Figure 6, which displays the average error of vote- share prices and vote projections over the timeline of the campaign. Early on, market prices respond to information that is—judging by the actual vote—often quite wrong. Only toward the end of the campaign do the markets catch up. That they do catch up makes considerable sense, because toward the campaign’s end market actors can efficiently absorb the wealth of poll information without being distracted by other possible electoral forces. As Election Day approaches, there is little new for the market to anticipate, correctly or incorrectly.

What do we learn about the vote-share market? Election markets have been touted as augurs because they are capable of taking into account information beyond the electorate’s preferences at the moment as reflected in the polls. In other words, they supposedly incorporate not only current sentiment but also future shifts in sentiment that can be anticipated by knowledgeable observers. We have learned, however, that prices in the IEM vote share market are no better, and in fact a bit worse, at predicting the vote than are projections based on the day’s most recent polls. Where the market holds to a view of the election at odds with the poll projections, it is somewhat more likely to be wrong than right.
...
In theory, market prices incorporate the signal of information about the future course of voter preferences beyond what we would predict from current polls. In practice, the market’s reading of the signal contains considerable noise. That much we know because market prices perform more poorly than our poll projections.
...
Where then do the markets go wrong? To begin with, consider the vote-share market. The histories of market prices show that traders tend to hold persistent beliefs about the vote division that contradict the polls and that these persistent beliefs are often wrong. Incorrect beliefs get corrected only in the last days before the election, when the polls are difficult to ignore."

http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/files/EriksonWlezien_Markets_AAPOR_for_POLLY(1).pdf

"he projects the image of a loser"

like, onto the side of a building or something?

i don't buy the "gaffe-proof" thing tbh. trump is gaffe-proof, because the people he appeals to don't care about what he says, but about how he says it. but an "oops" moment is still a real thing. yes, spouting nonviable and off-topic policy positions and failing to answer the debate questions, while alarming, has been standard protocol for eons, so while it's worrisome that those things don't constitute gaffes, that's not to say that nothing constitutes a gaffe. WHAT IF bush hadn't totally miffed his attempt to grill rubio on his no-show votes, AND rubio had sputtered back incoherently with a bad answer? he would look bad, and the narrative would be "rubio can't answer to tough grilling from a newly fired-up bush" etc. obviously that's what bush was hoping for, and maybe it's inherent to bush's character that he was unable to pull that off, but something like that's not outside the realm of possibility.

the bigger hope though is for a "47% of americans" or "macaca" moment --- for somebody to say or do something utterly boneheaded, offensive and career-ruining on camera not at the debates but at some random event, and for it to actually get picked up and go viral. this has of course been happening, but so far the only buzz-worthy clips (kasich and christie being condescending and rude as shit to female voters with issues questions) have only been offensive to people who weren't voting in this primary anyway.

Rubio had sputtered back incoherently with a bad answer?

He did!

Kerry and McCain had already been in the Senate 18 and 22 years, respectively, when they ran for president (McCain's second try, that is).

like, onto the side of a building or something?

do you honestly think this is a good zing?

anyway I don't think that data from Iowa Electronic Market data from presidential elections in 1988 is comparable to markets in 2015. the polls today have carson as the #1 candidate, betting markets have rubio. do you believe polls are more predictive in this particular case?

doesn't matter to this crowd because victimhood is easy

most polished victimhood quote, courtesy of Cruz:

“Let me be clear. The men and women on this stage have more ideas, more experience, more common sense, than every participant in the Democratic debate. That debate reflected a debate between the Bolsheviks and the Mensheviks.

Best part about that: Chuck Todd revealing on Twitter that he'd never heard of the Mensheviks. A real student of history, that guy.

WHAT IF bush hadn't totally miffed his attempt to grill rubio on his no-show votes, AND rubio had sputtered back incoherently with a bad answer? he would look bad, and the narrative would be "rubio can't answer to tough grilling from a newly fired-up bush" etc. obviously that's what bush was hoping for, and maybe it's inherent to bush's character that he was unable to pull that off, but something like that's not outside the realm of possibility.

I think they've all just learned to not show weakness, which is easier when the content of their responses to the grilling doesn't matter. those 'oops' moments are few and far between because you can say whatever the hell you want as long as you're confident and cocky and maybe drop a line about hillary clinton somewhere near the end.

nate silver says bush is probably toast

he likes to eat both for breakfast amirite

for real though he doesn't think bush can recover

from that lashing he just gave it w/ his tongue amirite

ok i'll stop

nate silver is skeptical that jeb bush will be the gop nominee

That silver tongued devil.