Global Warming's Terrifying New Math

Bubble plumes off Washington, Oregon suggest warmer ocean may be releasing frozen methane

― sleeve, Monday, October 19, 2015 7:14 PM (1 week ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

suddenly glad i have a lot of canned goods

a fun glimpse into the future

Climate Change Is Expected To Turn The Persian Gulf Into an Intolerable Kiln Where People Can't Go Outside

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/10/27/world/greenland-is-melting-away.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=photo-spot-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

read a sci-fi book recently where siberia was the big rich power in the world because it was the world's breadbasket. makes sense. might start seeing mass migration to greenland. when it's greener...

https://theconversation.com/its-been-australias-hottest-ever-october-and-thats-no-coincidence-49941

http://cdn1.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/aLsovV69NYR5fp3hspIgKeTy6ck=/1600x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/4213871/borneo_amo_2015292.jpg

On at least 38 days in September and October, Indonesia's fires were spewing more daily CO2 than the entire United States economy.

One of the worst eco-disasters on the planet is currently unfolding in Indonesia. Over the past two months, thousands of forest and peatland fires have been raging out of control, choking the entire region with thick, toxic haze.

The massive smoke columns can be seen from space. NASA snapped this satellite pic of Borneo peat fires on October 19:

The fires have been a public health nightmare, forcing widespread evacuations, killing at least 19, and triggering respiratory illnesses in more than half a million people. The haze has stretched as far as Malaysia and Singapore.

It's also a climate-change disaster. So far this year, Indonesia's fires have released more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than all the fossil fuels burned annually in Germany. On at least 38 days in September and October, Indonesia's fires were spewing more daily CO2 than the entire United States economy.

Follow-ups here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/31/world/asia/indonesia-forest-fires-wildlife.html
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/30/indonesia-fires-disaster-21st-century-world-media
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/nasa-warns-of-worst-ever-forest-fires-environmental-disaster-as-smoke-blankets-six-countries/story-e6frflp0-1227585225331

http://act.350.org/sign/exxon_DOJ/?akid=8314.808566.r1xGN2&rd=1&t=1

^petition for DOJ to investigate

just an isolated incident, folks. nothing to see here

http://www.emirates247.com/news/emirates/cyclone-chapala-live-3-killed-on-yemen-s-socotra-mukalla-set-for-hit-video-2015-11-02-1.608666

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/02/melting-ice-in-west-antarctica-could-raise-seas-by-3m-warns-study?CMP=ema_632

I thought I posted somewhere on this thread but maybe it was somewhere else about how it would be awesome if Obama waited until like his last month in office to kill the Keystone Pipeline with a "I'm outta here, suckers!" and oh guess what:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-will-decide-on-keystone-pipeline-before-he-leaves-office/2015/11/03/fb4904f4-7f10-11e5-b575-d8dcfedb4ea1_story.html

NYT: Exxon Mobil Investigated in New York Over Possible Lies on Climate

The New York attorney general has begun a sweeping investigation of Exxon Mobil to determine whether the company lied to the public about the risks of climate change or to investors about how those risks might hurt the oil business.

According to people with knowledge of the investigation, Attorney General Eric T. Schneiderman issued a subpoena Wednesday evening to Exxon Mobil, demanding extensive financial records, emails and other documents.

The focus includes the company’s activities dating to the late 1970s, including a period of at least a decade when Exxon Mobil funded groups that sought to undermine climate science. A major focus of the investigation is whether the company adequately warned investors about potential financial risks stemming from society’s need to limit fossil-fuel use.

..The people with knowledge of the New York case also said on Thursday that, in a separate inquiry, Peabody Energy, the nation’s largest coal producer, had been under investigation by the attorney general for two years over whether it properly disclosed financial risks related to climate change. That investigation has not been previously reported, and has not resulted in any charges or other legal action against Peabody.

and some more:

The opening of an investigation of Exxon Mobil by the New York attorney general’s office into the company’s record on climate change may well spur legal inquiries into other oil companies, according to legal and climate experts, although successful prosecutions are far from assured.

STORIES FROM OUR ADVERTISERS

Many oil companies have funded lobbying efforts and research on climate change, so prosecutors would most likely be able to search through vast amounts of material. The industry has also resisted pressure for years from environmental groups to warn investors of the risks that stricter limits on carbon emissions could have on their businesses, although that appears to be changing.

“Exxon Mobil is not alone,” said Stephen Zamora, a professor at the University of Houston Law Center. “This is not likely to be an isolated matter.”

An Exxon Mobil refinery in Los Angeles, Calif. The New York attorney general is investigating the oil and gas company.Exxon Mobil Investigated for Possible Climate Change Lies by New York Attorney GeneralNOV. 5, 2015
Energy experts said prosecutors may decide to investigate companies that chose to fund or join organizations that questioned climate science or policies designed to address the problem, such as the Global Climate Coalition and the American Legislative Exchange Council, to see if discrepancies exist between the companies’ public and private statements.

Obama Rejects Construction of Keystone XL Oil Pipeline

The rail indexes have yet to respond to the good news.

I said this on the American politics thread but would be interested in yr take re:

I know people were arguing that the oil was gonna get moved anyway, regardless of the pipeline, but that NYT article makes it sound like as long as oil stays below $65/barrell (it's currently at $50) then the oil will stay in the ground. How likely (and how long) oil is likely to stay below $65/barrell I have no idea...

Not long. All of the excess oil at the margin was shale and oil sands, and they presently break even between 60 and 85 or so. Free money from the Fed lead to a lot of searching for yield and credit thrown into oil & gas (I believe oil & gas accounted for over half of U.S. capex expenditure in 2013). That was no more sustainable than other bubbles, so now that drilling has come to a halt.

https://secure.attenbabler.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Weekly-Total-US-Oil-Rig-Count-vs-Crude-Oil-Price-Sept-30.png

and as the backlog of drilled but unfracked shale wells diminishes, U.S. production is also falling.

I think Chris Skrebowski's megaprojects database (last updated & presented in 2011) offered the best window into the oil situation. Annual incremental production from major projects increased through 2014-15, but after that there is a dearth of major projects in the development pipeline. Wise financiers all shorted in 2014, are getting flat now, and are awaiting confirmation of a trend before getting back onboard.

And that largely depends on the global economy, rather than technical issues in upstream oil. I have been a bit busy with personal developments to follow closely, but there were lots of indications that China is looking really bad right now.

The thickest and most prospective parts of the major U.S. shale oil plays (Bakken, Eagle Ford) has already been drilled. The speculation and drilling was moving into more marginal areas, which is normal for development of any basin, so I'd expect development to resume once oil hits $80 again.

The largest shale oil plays are the source rocks for the big oil fields in East Siberia. Ultimately, Russia may control the global oil price much as they control Europe's gas price. Depending on how long Russia plays monopolist, even the really expensive stuff, like deepwater 100 mi offshore Brazil, with breakevens above $120/bbl, will be developed.

thanks for that

I worried about Indonesian peat fires as a positive feedback upthread.

I'm not alone.

The fires in Indonesia are more than just a threat to endangered orangutans. They have shortened by up to two years the window to reduce carbon emissions and avoid runaway climate change, according to one of the CSIRO's leading climate scientists.

The head of the Global Carbon Project at the CSIRO, Pep Canadell, said the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may have exceeded 400 parts per million for the first time in 2 million years, because of the 1 billion tonnes of carbon released by the fires in a two-month period.

Dr Canadell said the daily emissions of the Indonesian fires had been equal to the daily emissions of the US, accelerating humanity's progress along the upward line of global emissions by about one to two years.

Oh, and this from January:

Peatland loss could emit 2,800 years’ worth of carbon in an evolutionary eyeblink

Of the 3,300 tons of carbon per hectare stored in Indonesia’s coastal peatland areas, up to half would be released into the atmosphere over the 100 years following conversion to oil palm plantations—the equivalent of 2,800 years worth of accumulated carbon

The study in question.

The European tactic of fueling their cars with palm oil to meet renewables targets may be the most misguided environmental policy, ever.

this fuckin guy (slightly googleproofed)

hxxp://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/30/bloombergs-alarming-graph-are-we-really-on-track-for-4c-global-warming-by-2100/

where do you even start?

why googleproof it? for years he's had one of the leading climate change denier websites (in some years the very highest, by traffic) and the internet is full of people going "ANTHONY WATTS IS A COMPLETE FUCKING IDIOT"

I knew you would have some insight, ty

so many great links come up

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Anthony_Watts

haha, i didn't copy and paste the link until now and just realized it was a guest post by Christopher Monckton

http://www.desmogblog.com/christopher-monckton
https://www.skepticalscience.com/Monckton_Myths.htm

joe romm (of ThinkProgress/ClimateProgress) and watts were archenemies for a long time (probably still are) but things really heated up in 2008-2011, when watts' blog was overtaking romm in terms of traffic. the comments section of climateprogress was full of watts people invading with complete nonsense on nearly every post, and then occasionally Watts and Romm themselves would trade barbs in epic comment section faceoffs. it was like a continual trainwreck for several years, and even though Romm was right on the merits, i think in engaging watts so frequently he ended up giving him more of a platform than he should have.

I know that to make remarks about his appearance is irrelevant to the issue, but Monckton is a pop-eyed fuckwit

2015 is possibly the hottest year since we invented agriculture

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/11/10/huge_el_nino_pushes_climate_toward_records.html

a 2 degree centigrade increase in average temperature spells disaster for civilization and we are already halfway there. go humans

http://www.engadget.com/2015/11/11/6-insane-plans-to-hack-the-planets-ecosystems/

Kinda digging the seawater idea (backed by Bill Gates).

I hate the title, as there's nothing insane about thinking through necessary measures. If economists would simply include the discounted current cost of maintaining habitability into their cost/benefit analyses, then immedicate decarbonization of the energy sector would be a no brainer.

If sulfur is added to jet fuel/balloons etc., then maybe 5 billion can live at carbon levels that would otherwise result in 4+ degree warming. If not, I think we're down below 2 billion. You can't feed populations where nighttime temperatures are too high for grain germination, or the aquifers are exhausted and rain no longer falls. Stratospheric sulfur aerosol seeding is cheap enough for greatly affected countries (like Bangladesh) to do unilaterally, so barring some epidemic that wipes out most of us, sulfur albedo geoengineering looks pretty inevitable.

As for planting redwoods where they might survive, that's perfectly sensible. IIRC, climate patterns (for a given elevation) in the American West will move around 600 miles north this century. Too fast for normal seed dispersal. We should be planting trees as far north as they can survive current winters, and continue doing so.

Stratospheric sulfur aerosol seeding is cheap enough for greatly affected countries (like Bangladesh) to do unilaterally, so barring some epidemic that wipes out most of us, sulfur albedo geoengineering looks pretty inevitable.

Sure will be fun living with whatever catastrophio unintended consequences unfold out of this

what will the decay of 4 billion corpses do to temperatures? just curious

Not much. Assuming complete combustion:

16 kg C * 4 billion = 64 Mt C = 85 Mt CH4 or 234 Mt CO2. Annual CO2 emissions are 10 Gt = 10000 Mt CO2.

i myself have vast quantities of methane sequestered

really putting the thread title to work now, nice

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CT8Z4CcUEAA99Up.jpg

Yikes. Has another year ever eclipsed 1997, even for a week?

Not til late February, I think:

https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/inline_all/public/weeklyNin34_compare_v3.jpg

I think Lamar Smith's hairpiece will outlast the polar icecaps and humanity.

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a39779/congress-climate-scientist-hearings/

https://i2.wp.com/4.bp.blogspot.com/-LeMQP7eH2Zc/VkqUFZD9Q3I/AAAAAAAADPc/lf71invhXy0/s1600/u96yg.gif

The magnitude of the anamolies in August-September-October . . .

*anomalies

Personally, I've been in a state of abject terror since May.

tear gas in Paris

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/french-police-fire-teargas-disperse-climate-protest-151129132752492.html

all that outsourced unrest finally knocking at the gates of the west

alberta carbon tax is very sweet and encouraging

are there any other oil-rich places with conservative governments who have fallen out of power since oil prices declined? would be extra encouraging if the alberta sequence happened in other places, too

a short summary of what is and isn't at stake at the paris talks: http://www.vox.com/2015/11/30/9818582/paris-cop21-climate-talks

and for those who find this kind of stuff dry, a pretty good summary of the past 25 years of international (in)action in comic form: http://www.nature.com/news/the-fragile-framework-1.18861

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/02/us/politics/as-obama-pushes-climate-deal-republicans-move-to-block-emissions-rules.html

in the inevitable authoritarian children of men-style society we will live in after the effects of climate change are more fully felt, these guys will probably all be put up against a wall and shot

in the meantime, despair.

Speaking of which, I recommend Star's Reach: A Novel Of The Deindustrial Future by John Michael Greer (of the Archdruid Report). The narrative, set 400 years into a post AGW, post-Limits to Growth collapse, jumps needlessly about in time (due to its origins as a blog serialized novel), but touches on ideas from Heaven's Gate-like cults to isostatic rebound, and ties it all into the Fermi paradox.

Transgressors against Mam Gaia (down to glassblowers tapping natural gas wells) are buried in Her belly, alive. Alas, our generation is beyond reach.