a clown car full of millionaires: the 2016 presidential primary thread

former Republicans not doing so well in Dem race for some reason

hrm:

“Since today is all about women’s leadership it reminds me of one of my favorite Greek plays; Lysistrata, a comedy from about 400 BCE by Aristophanes. In that play, a group of women, fed up with the war mongering of their husbands, agree to withhold their favors until peace returns. And it worked!”

I bet we'll get some good tweets from Curt Schilling out of this.

I'd like a candidate whose ideas all come from the plots of comedies--"It worked for Ernest!"

Jeb Bush orders across-the-board pay cuts for struggling campaign

if the general really does turn out to be donald trump vs hillary clinton, can we get spy magazine back? i mean, we already got bloom county again

'90s revival has gone too far even if new Twin Peaks doesn't suck

Trump down in Iowa... is Carson gonna pull a Santorum?

show us his santorum

All of this round's republican candidates project Santorum imo.

can kinda foresee Carson winning in Iowa, Trump winning New Hampshire, and then both flailing from there on out as the super tuesday primaries get split between Rubio and Chuckles or others

Carson winning Iowa seems perfectly possible. Carson winning much after that? Not so much.

Jeb! seems pretty doomed! though

like what state is he gonna carry

We're all doomed.

except hillary

The only silver lining I see is that my two girls don't know Hillary Clinton has a lifetime of history and bad blood, and will only see her as the first female president, which would be far more valuable than anything she actually brings the office.

other than the expensive jewelry of her lady lovers

'90s revival has gone too far even if new Twin Peaks doesn't suck

Bootleg shirts for sale at the state fair this year: Trump for President; Straight Outta Compton

Just glad Perry Farrell didn't die in 1992 so there's no Doors movie about him.

who is the Oliver Stone of today to make that masterpiece?

prediction markets breaking for rubio

rubio would certainly fit the conventional wisdom, but the 'establishment' republicans are so damn weak this time around that one of the radical right renegades might just consolidate the angry white votes, and push their way past the CW and into the nomination. we live in interesting times.

I don't think Trump, Fiorina or Carson actually have the required endurance and organizational skills to court all the delegates they would need - the question is which one of the establishment guys can credibly collect enough of the "outrage" votes and Rubio appears to maybe be that guy at the moment. Jeb! has too much baggage and is just a shitty campaigner, Christie too corrupt/compromised, Cruz too unctuous, Kasich too much "the guy the other party likes" ... Huckabee's appeal seems restricted to southern evangelicals, I don't think that's enough (money guys won't get behind him).

if it's Rubio vs. Clinton we can look forward to some concerned grandma-scolding from the latter

imo, the angry whites won't care that cruz is unctuous. if anyone who has won real elections can inherit the trump/carson/fiorina bloc of votes when they falter, it is cruz. i think the huckabee bloc would also find cruz acceptable. that guy seems to excite the red meat radicals, however distasteful he seems to those of us outside that tribe. he also seems to recognize that the best position atm is to conserve cash and poll just well enough to stay in the race.

the party - it's elected officials, it's operators and infrastructure etc. - hate cruz, he'll never get the nom

like I would not really consider Cruz an "establishment" candidate - he has too many enemies (and powerful ones at that) within the party

seems like a possible scenario is a 3rd party run by either Trump or Carson that ends up with at least 10% of the vote (mostly taken from the establishment GOP candidate: Rubio or Bush)

once actual voting starts the establishment is going to do a lot better

^^^^^^

of course

if cruz pops up to the top in the actual vote-getting phase, the party establishment have a hard time freezing him out.

rubio does seem like the best establishment hope and the establishment has the good sense to consolidate early around their guy. jeb! has only got a short time left to prove up or they'll dump him like a hot potato and jump over to rubio. rubio at least is a pleasantly bland cipher who can be dressed up in whatever image the consultants think will win.

a 3rd party run by either Trump or Carson

honestly I can't imagine Trump wanting to waste that much of his own money, and Carson wouldn't be able to raise enough I expect

cruz pops up to the top in the actual vote-getting phase

what state do you think he could carry, South Carolina?

is he well loved enough in Texas?

what state do you think he could carry

every red state has its share of angry whites. the strategic difficulty is consolidating them around one candidate.

cruz's best chance is very heavy attrition early on among the whole field of candidates and to be the last man standing who is palatable to the angry white protest bloc. If the field whittles down fast and cruz can become the default choice for the fed-up voters who want to see blood in the gutters of DC, he might squeak into the nom.

The establishment's best chance (which is much more likely to happen) is that the protest bloc keeps milling around, not making up its mind who to consolidate around until its mid-April and they've lost all chance to have a real impact, while the establishment choice keeps gathering plurality winner-take-all victories and cruises to the nomination, as happened in 2012.

i've said this already but like 30% of registered republicans are not gonna vote for a guy with a meskin name cuz SECRET AGENDAS
you can maybe lose the evangelical vote before you lose flyover country angry wites so i have written off cruz and rubio as actual nominees more or less from jump

meskin name?

oh. had to say it out loud

the republican establishment doesn't always get its way. neither goldwater nor reagan were the establishment choices in 64 or 80. but the establishment learns from its losses and adapts.

given the current mania about OUR BORDERS THE WALL WHO WILL SAVE THE CHILDREN (fanned by Trump, hm, is it a plot?) it's hard for me to imagine the rank and file falling in behind anyone whose name evokes the potential to have to learn how to properly pronounce a tilde

hillary won't really pick bernie to be VP when she becomes president, will she? i think she'll pick some young go-getter.

cruz buddied up with trump, and his background is cuban, so he's an honorary white.

xpost One of the Castro brothers probably

Raul?

no. he's right of Bernie

Cruz, I see, has replaced Walker as the second tier candidate whom liberals love to fear.

Clinton/Booker '16

who are the first tier republican candidates?

Rubio
Bush
a ham sandwich Boehner accidentally sat on