Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CRUccsNUYAATt4c.png

an unreliable amnesty international report about a middle east minority? no way.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/15/world/middleeast/russian-military-uses-syria-as-proving-ground-and-west-takes-notice.html

Russia’s fighter jets are, for now at least, conducting nearly as many strikes in a typical day against rebel troops opposing the government of President Bashar al-Assad as the American-led coalition targeting the Islamic State has been carrying out each month this year.

interesting read from the gentleman who tried to broker a deal between assad + israel before the war started:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/10/syria-civil-war-213242?o=0

http://www.pri.org/stories/2015-10-15/taliban-had-hit-list-working-women-when-they-took-over-kunduz

Wow. If the Afghan government could only get its act together and improve life for all, it would help further minimize the Taliban. But neither the Russians, the US or the current Afghan military and government have been able to stop the Taliban, and the Afghan government doesn't seem that much more proficient than the Iraqi one.

On paper Ghani is a more credible state builder than Karzai but he has his work cut out for him. Idk what percentage of Afghanistan is "governed" in any meaningful sense.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/16/with-putin-in-syria-allies-question-obamas-resolve/

Another article that doesn't even hint at what Obama could do in reaction to Russia's intervention other than Zbigniew Brzezinski's moronic assertion that the US should threaten the second biggest military power in the world with "retaliation" if it hits their "assets". Russia's action aligns with the government of Syria, the government of Iraq and the country with the most direct influence over foreign troops on the ground - Iran. It's hardly surprising that they have been able to 'shift the paradigm' or whatever in a way a country backing a fairly disorganised mosaic of rebels hasn't. The fact that the US actions are ostensibly illegal and the Russian ones, on paper, are not also negates much possibility of a non-aggressive route to checking Russia's move.

Beyond that, it's just speculation - Qatar and Saudi are still funneling money and arms to the rebels and have both restated, as has Turkey, that there is no role for Assad in the future. The Saudi visit to Moscow was to confirm that they have no objection to Russia attacking ISIS but the fact that, in the same week, KSA started supplying oil directly to Poland - cutting Russia out, didn't go unnoticed.

I'm not sure how useful it is to make out that allies in the region have stopped talking to the US or have only just started talking to Russia - nether is true.

I mean, the scenario the FP article outlines is the one that Russia is definitely aiming for - i just don't think there is enough evidence to suggest it's working yet.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/vladimir-putins-interventionism-in-the-middle-east-is-not-to-be-admired/2015/10/15/7c939834-7373-11e5-8d93-0af317ed58c9_story.html

Washington’s foreign policy elites have developed a mind-set that mistakes activity for achievement. They assume that every crisis in the world can and should be solved by a vigorous assertion of U.S. power, preferably military power. Failure to do so is passivity and produces weakness. By this logic, Russia and Iran are the new masters of the Middle East. Never mind that those countries are desperately trying to shore up a sinking ally. Their clients, the Alawites of Syria, are a minority regime — representing less than 15 percent of the country’s people — and face deadly insurgencies supported by vast portions of the population. Iran is bleeding resources in Syria. And if Russia and Iran win, somehow, against the odds, they get Syria — which is a cauldron, not a prize. The United States has been “in the driver’s seat” in Afghanistan for 14 years. Has that strengthened America?

Kevin Drumm thinks things are already not going well; he quotes the ISW, "Nonetheless, the Syrian regime and its allies have thus far failed to achieve significant gains... Confirmed reports indicate that pro-regime fighters have seized only six villages and towns... At the same time, regime forces suffered heavy losses in manpower and materiel in the face of heavy rebel resistance. Free Syrian Army (FSA)-affiliated rebels forces claimed to destroy at least twenty tanks and armored vehicles as well as a helicopter gunship in a “tank massacre” on the first day of the offensive....Operations against the Syrian opposition will likely prove harder and slower than anticipated by either Russia or Iran...The foreign allies of the Syrian regime may be forced to expend further financial and military resources in order to preserve their initial gains."

I'm not yet convinced that this is going to be a disaster for Putin. He's supporting the historical status quo government against a revolution which immediately makes it different from Afghanistan or Iraq where the US toppled the entire state infrastructure. If it does become a "quagmire" I'm sure the US will have plenty to do w/ making that happen.

https://twitter.com/erinmcunningham/status/655717060962578432

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/656002890792734720

kinda lol but mostly sad
"I'm glad he's associated with al-Qaeda rather than IS, but obviously I worry."

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/23/world/middleeast/palestinians-israel-stabbings-shootings.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=mini-moth®ion=top-stories-below&WT.nav=top-stories-below&_r=0

Palestinian songs about recent incidents

gross as hell

p depressing

idk if this is true but:

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/10/26/435017/Lebanon-Saudi-prince-narcotics

http://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2014/jan/13/captagon-amphetamine-syria-war-middle-east

^makes perfect sense to me. the US military has also issued amphetamines to troops in the past and the sale of illicit drugs has been a big money maker for a lot of paramilitary organizations worldwide. when there's a war to win, you don't give a fuck about consequences. people are dying right and left, so the future shrinks to insignificance.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/27/world/middleeast/syria-russian-air-strike-refugees.html?_r=0

The intensity of the fighting, they say, is fueling increased desperation as a growing number of Syrians are fleeing to neighboring countries and, especially, to Europe. More than 9,000 migrants a day crossed into Greece last week, according to the International Organization for Migration, the most since the beginning of the year

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-shifting-anti-isis-strategy-gather-battlefield-momentum/story?id=34759980

The changes we’re pursuing can be described by what I call the 'three R’s': Raqqa, Ramadi, and Raids,” Carter said in testimony today before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Russians?

Yes...plus, their other old "R" was "retreat" for what their trained "rebels" did

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/is-militants-tie-captives-to-palmyra-columns-blow-them-up/2015/10/27/9e1f3954-7c88-11e5-bfb6-65300a5ff562_story.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/28/world/middleeast/freed-prisoners-of-isis-tell-of-beatings-and-torture.html

it is hard to imagine a "hell on earth" worse than these descriptions of areas ruled by ISIS

But the Iraqi government says do not worry

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iraq-we-didnt-ask-u-s-ground-operations-n452756

The Iraqi government said Wednesday it didn't ask for — and doesn't need — the "direct action on the ground" promised by the Pentagon.

The revelation came a day after Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said the U.S. may carry out more unilateral ground raids — like last week's rescue operation to free hostages — in Iraq to target ISIS militants.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's spokesman told NBC News that any military involvement in the country must be cleared through the Iraqi government just as U.S.-led airstrikes are.

"This is an Iraqi affair and the government did not ask the U.S. Department of Defense to be involved in direct operations," spokesman Sa'ad al-Hadithi told NBC News. "We have enough soldiers on the ground."

yesterday's frontline on life in assad's chunk of syria was pretty grim, as you'd imagine.

xp in the context of US soldiers having to leave because they refused to be subject to Iraqi law, sending them back without discussing it with the government is quite a big deal.

The new tactic of heavy air raids on oil fields in Syria is also an important shift. It looks like the US is trying to cut off the supply of funds to ISIS but it's not going to be easy to rebuild the infrastructure if a new coalition or FSA government comes in. They'd apparently been holding off until now for that reason.

Erdogan back with an outright majority. Not hugely unexpected.

might be good for cyprus at least

That's about it

so.... Russian airline shot down? I can't fathom why Egypt would shoot down a Russian plane.

afaik no one thinks sisi's govt shot down the plane

so what hit it?

good question

I think it broke up in the air? There was some damage done to it's tail back in 2001

i think everything that is known is here:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34697416

it sounds to me like a mechanical issue but i guess a bomb onboard or a SAM but i've read that it's definitely not MANPADS which don't have that kind of reach. i guess ppl believe that MANPADS are the best ground to air equipment that terrorists in the Sinai or wherever possess. it seems possible to me that they have gotten some better gear. idk it seems pretty premature to say it's anything. i don't think anyone believes Sisi's govt did this tho. if it was an attack, it was presumably an attack from non-State militants.

ISIS is claiming credit

I heard they posted a video of the attack and it turned out to be from 2004 or something?

It looks like Kogalymavia hasn't paid staff for two months so god knows what other corners they were cutting.

Will these various talks possibly succeed re Syria?....They still have to deal with Isis and with Assad

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34709167

Earlier on Tuesday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said that Moscow was aiming to host a round of talks between Syrian government officials and members of the country's opposition in Moscow next week.

Last week world powers - including key Assad ally Iran for the first time - met in Vienna and agreed to renew efforts to end the conflict.

The ministers agreed to ask the United Nations to start a process that could lead to a ceasefire and new elections. New talks are due in two weeks.

what do you mean "deal with" assad? russia wants to keep him

Today the Russians said:

When asked if saving the Syrian leader was a matter of principle for Russia, spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said: "Absolutely not, we never said that."

"We are not saying that Assad should leave or stay," she added.

Dictators don't like being shown the door though

well that seems new

there have been some indications in recent past that russians are amenable to an outcome in which
-there is an exit for assad of relatively dignified nature
-(much of) the regime/ state apparatus stays in place (in contrast e.g. to post-saddam iraq)

The UK and Ireland have suspended all flights to and from Sharm el Sheikh until further notice. There have been leaks that the UK and U.S. think the plane was probably broght down by a bomb but no word on what that is based on. Neither is part of any investigation afaict.

hard to imagine they'd cancel flights on /no/ evidence

i guess the only question now is was it a luggage bomb or similar to what richard reid & umar farouk abdulmutallab attempted

well not the *only* question but still