From [TBC] To The Polar Lands - Rolling Russia / "Near Abroad" News Thread

84% with an 87% turnout!

If he can get the sanctions lifted and bring peace to Ukraine I see no reason he shouldn't be aiming for the full 100 next time.

My sister is leaving for Ukraine next week to work as an election observer (think she's working for OSCE this time). Expecting some good emails ahead....

Which part of the country?

Not sure yet.

Former Moldovan PM Vlad Filat, leader of the pro-EU Liberal Democratic party, was taken away from Parliament in handcuffs yesterday in relation to the ongoing $1bn fraud investigation.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/15/us-moldova-protests-filat-idUSKCN0S91BY20151015

Plenty of local colour in the UKrainian elections:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/21/ukraine-elections-dirty-tricks

“We need to create Mossad-style special operative groups to enter Russia and kidnap Yanukovych and his associates, and bring them back to face trial,” said Korban, a businessman, who is barely 5ft and speaks in whispers

Five policemen trying to handcuff Chewbacca:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQ6yF1N4JLY&feature=youtu.be

The ongoing process of decentralising the government means the local politicians will have more power than ever before, so the local elections are getting a) more important and b) dirtier, with the oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky leading on the latter.

Another oligarch, Rinat Akhmetov, is the key figure behind the cancellation of the vote in Mariupol, the second biggest city in Donetsk oblast. For some bizarre reason, the ballot papers were being printed at a company he owns (though having said that he may own most of the companies) and Poroshenko has cancelled the whole election on the belief that too many ballots were being printed to enable fraud.

The hawkish PM Yatseniuk, whose party got 22% in the general election last year, decided not to put up any candidates this time as they've slumped to about 2%.

http://tinyurl.com/pss24xz

Good update on the Ukrainian election, though votes still being counted:

http://www.politico.eu/article/petro-poroshenko-hobbles-on-ukraine-local-election-vote-rigging/

The short version is that everyone lost. None of the major parties put in a good showing and a lot of big cities, including Kharkiv, Odessa and Dniepropetrovsk (the second, third and fourth largest in the country) either went with ex-Yanukovich men or Kolomoisky's pick, if initial results are right. Klitchko, running for Poroshenko's bloc, seems to have taken Kyiv though.

Kramatorsk, which was on the front line of fighting, stuck with Yanukovich allies.

There is some brilliant stuff in the new Snyder book Black Earth about how in double occupied Soviet zones people became compliant in murder for both the Nazi/Soviet regimes, even triple collaborators in some cases. Also stuff about members of the Polish Home Army who fought partisan warfare against the Nazis and were either shot or shipped off to Lubyanka as "Facists" by the Soviets in the post war years. Ukranians that initially were shooting Jews into death pits in '42 being recruited to swap sides, revelatory to me type stuff anyway.

It looks interesting but seems to have been quite controversial - though I don't know much of that is a hangover from Snyder's recent foray into contemporary political commentary.

I trust him but admittedly am not the most nuanced judge of historians, but for better or worse he has changed the way I look at 20th century Eastern European history and the holocaust and I think he is a great writer.

This David Bell piece highlights some of the main concerns with his work - particularly the apparent effort to shift blame onto ex-Communists rather than non-Communist Poles and Ukrainians and the broader sense that the Holocaust was a reaction to the Soviet Union rather than something that sprang from German society and European anti-semitism. idk, i'm not an expert. I might pinch Black Earth from the office if i see it around.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/history%E2%80%99s-black-hole-the-holocaust-eastern-europe-13645

He's one of the worst commentators on contemporary CEU politics but has a better rep in his day job.

Jesus, a Kogalymavia plane with 200 tourists on board has reportedly crashed after taking off from Sharm el Sheikh on route to St Petersburg.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34687139

Hennady Korban, the five foot tall ' businessman' who was speculating about sending a Mossad style squad into Russia to get Yanukovich upthread has just been arrested, either for embezzlement or for running a private army (!). Nobody seems sure.

http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1446335891

He's obviously a crook but there is concern that the arrest is political. He is the leader of UKROP, Kolomoisky's party and a thorn in the side of Poroshenko. It is a tough position as these guys are a genuine threat to government security but any attepts to squash them are going to read as partisan politics.

Hard not to feel sorry for Poroshenko in these situations.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/05/ukraine-visa-free-european-travel-anti-gay-law

The EU had effectively promised visa free travel to all Ukrainians, which would be an unbelievably huge deal for tourists and business, if the Rada passed legislation stopping workplace discrimination again gay people. 75% of MPs refused.

One apparently capped the day by bottling another MP, a 62 year old woman, inside the debating chamber. She's now in hospital with concussion.

I am considering spending a tenner on Anna Bikont's The Crime and The Silence, mainly on the strength of the first few paragraphs of the NYRB review (until I hit the paywall) and it seems to be getting a lot of good reviews elsewhere. It is an account the Jedwabne massacre that has only just now been translated into English 11 years after the Polish edition.

Looks like Russia might be suspended from the 2016 Olympics over doping.

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/14918/production/_86584248_86584195.jpg
"Pyotr Pavlensky set the door of the Lubyanka building alight and was pictured standing in front of the blaze holding a petrol can."
That is just taking the piss! I could imagine decades later it will be revealed that this was his first stunt after the FSB recruited him.

It's interesting as he's quite well regarded by the state-sponsored art sector. I went to an exhibition of his stuff at the Tretyakov gallery about two years ago, which might not happen again for a while.

Poland looks set to appoint as Minister of Defence a guy who thinks Russia deliberately caused the 2010 plane crash that killed the President along with lots of other senior Polish officials.

http://news.yahoo.com/polands-pm-waiting-taps-controversial-defence-minister-183353053.html

Even more fun, he also believes Donald Tusk, PM at the time and current EU President, is an undercover agent and was in on it.

http://carnegie.ru/2015/10/29/silence-of-cis-russia-s-neighbors-and-syria-crisis/ikmb

I'd take that with a pinch of salt. The US has very pointedly just congratulated Kazakhstan on its 550th anniversary after comments from Putin that were interpreted as implying that it didn't have a pre-Soviet history of statehood but relations between the countries seem relatively good on the whole, with the biggest problem being the ongoing economic crisis. There hasn't been any public division over Syria and a couple of the leaders, particularly Rahmon are fanatically opposed to ISIS to a degree that makes Putin look mild. Public cheerleading for the bombing in countries already leaking fighters to ISIS and Al-Nusra is probably nagl though.

Thoughts on http://www.interpretermag.com/moscow-seen-laying-groundwork-to-annex-belarus-open-second-front-against-ukraine-next-year/ ?

That's embarrassing. It's worth remembering that The Interpreter is a project run by Pavel Khodorkovsky and funded by his father. Most Russian journalists, even those who are actively anti-government, won't touch it.

Lukashenko appears to be normalising relations with Europe (political prisoners released, playing peacemaker in Ukraine, getting sanctions lifted) rather than moving in the other direction. There doesn't seem much appetite for deepening hostilities in Ukraine at the moment, let alone annexing other countries to make it easier.

Pavlensky is going admirably all-in with this and demanding that the charges against him be changed from vandalism to terrorism:

http://calvertjournal.com/news/show/4971/russian-art-activist-pyotr-pavlensky-asks-to-face-terrorism-charges

The objective seems to be highlighting the Sentsov case where a Ukrainian film director was convicted of terrorist offences in Crimea on the basis of very shaky evidence.

Dmytro Yarosh has resigned as leader of Pravii Sektor. The rationale is a little unclear but there's speculation that there are splits in the organisation and his authority had been fatally undermined. Some of the analysis following his resignation has suggested that he is too 'moderate' for the hardline wing of the party, which is worrying.

It turns out the new Polish Defence Minister doesn't believe that the Protocols of the Elders of Zion are real but he also doesn't *not* believe that they're real.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/10/polish-defence-minister-condemned-over-jewish-conspiracy-theory

What a difference a week can make.

Putin seems to have acknowledged that the plane was bombed, Cameron and Putin have both suggested they work together to fight ISIS and the US and Russia are apparently "closer" on agreeing a plan of action for a political settlement in Syria. Putin and Obama had both said they wouldn't meet each other at the G20 summit but had a "productive" chat over coffee (as seen in this great gif):

http://gfycat.com/ReflectingLargeFurseal

Putin has also said that he'll offer Ukraine full debt restructuring which will enable them to avoid default and take the current round of IMF funding. Rather than paying $3bn before the end of this year, they will pay $1bn per year in 2016 - 2018.

what is going on there? that is my favorite recent gif

is that guy supposed to be getting a secret scoop about the coffee meeting?

That's what it looks like. I love his attempt to sidle backwards inconspicuously.

the bag helps add to the effect

The TurkStream gas pipeline has been suspended, for obvious reasons:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34995472

Suspect it's too big not to go forward after an appropriate delay though. Turkey needs gas and Russia probably needs to sell it to someone.

Ukraine is having great fun trying to stop Dmytro Firtash coming back. He's an oligarch who was arrested in Austria on a U.S. warrant that was dismissed by the Austrian courts as politically motivated. It was thought he'd fly back on a charter plane so Ukraine banned all charter planes from entering the country. He's not charged with anything domestically so the Interior Minister was reduced to stationing the neo-Nazi Azov militia on the tarmac at Borispol to dissuade him from taking a regular plane.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/02/ukrainian-billionaire-cancels-trip-home-after-threat-of-arrest

I'll be there tomorrow so I hope they have cleared off.

Biden's over here at the moment trying to gee up the Rada in the fight against corruption:

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/biden-warns-ukraine-backsliding-corruption-35640048

The message boils down to 'the international community has bent over backwards to help Ukraine so don't fuck it up again'.

Slightly awkward that Hunter Biden is on the board of a company run by a guy who stole $23m from the state and whose prosecution the current authorities have been aggressively stalling.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainians-see-conflict-in-bidens-anticorruption-message-1449523458

It's the crucial message to send, though whether it'll have any impact remains to be seen.

Khodorkovsky officially charged with two murders from 1998.

One side says it is because he has refused to stay out of politics following his release, another that he killed loads of people and deserves to pay for it. Both are probably correct.

The Ukrainian Parliament's war on its own dignity continues with gusto.

http://i.imgur.com/HO4eqg8.jpg?1

^^ highlight from this round of "mass brawl in the Rada". That's the PM getting manhandled.

Full fight on Youtube, of course:

http://www.youtube.com/embed/sCsnSuf5vaQ

These guys are all in the same coalition.

http://i.imgur.com/gUODdyP.jpg?1

Beautiful shot.

The guy trying to grapple Yatseniuk is Oleh Barna - a member of the President's party.

Interior Minister Avakov throws water in Saakashvili's face, apparently on the basis that he was 'hysterical' in accusing Yatseniuk + co of corruption and the only other option would have been to punch him.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/15/ukrainian-minister-throws-water-in-odessa-governors-face

MP Mustafa Nayyem wrote on his Facebook page: “This hell will keep going until Poroshenko states his position. A governor can’t accuse the prime minister of corruption and keep his post! Or if he does, it means either he is telling the truth, or people are scared of him, or they are using him.”

He added that in the case of Saakashvili, it appeared the president was using him, and the prime minister was scared of him.

Meanwhile if you want to sum up everything that is wrong with Russia in two news stories:

Alex Navalny reveals allegations that the country's top prosecutor is involved in a criminal conspiracy extending from high financial fraud to the massacre of a family in the sticks:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35044224

Alex Navalny reveals that his opposition bloc will be led at the next election by Mikhail Kasyanov:

http://www.rferl.mobi/a/russia-kasyanov-leading-opposition-elections/27422618.html

Kasyanov is universally known as "Misha 2%" thanks to his policy of taking a personal commission on every corrupt deal passing through government when he was Prime Minister. Idk why anyone would bother voting for any party.

sounds like they're in a strong position to resist russian challenges to ukrainian sovereignty.

Pretty much the only thing that they can do in a divided nation is try to convince people who didn't buy in to the overthrow of the previous government that they are competent technocrats who will improve quality of life and, as you can see, they're absolutely nailing that right now. Perversely, Saakashvili, who is a corrupt, stupid megalomaniac, in addition to not being Ukrainian, appears to be the most respected politician in a lot of national polls. He at least gives the impression that he wants reform and isn't beholden to the same oligarchs who have been running the country behind the scenes since independence.

Do you have any opinions on Anna Bikont, SV? Only asking because I just bought her well received book about the Jedwabne pogrom and thought you might have some take on it.

Haven't read any of her stuff yet but I've heard a lot of good things from people I trust. There's no doubt in my mind that the central idea of her book is correct.

Thanks. I'm glad I spent the money then.

https://www.rt.com/news/327907-poroshenko-economist-putin-photoshop/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35581708

"The bill would make it illegal to say that Poland "took part, organised or was co-responsible for the crimes of the Third Reich"

Fair enough as long as long as that doesn't also apply to the numerous Polish led massacres that occurred without any Nazi presence or coercion.

The omens don't look good:

http://www.haaretz.com/jewish/news/1.703568

They are looking at stripping Jan Gross of his Order of Merit for his Jedwabne book to send a message that he is "an enemy of Poland".

Poroshenko has finally lost patience with PM Yatseniuk and the Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin and told both to resign, threatening to dissolve the Rada if they don't.

They've both been almost universally loathed for a long time but the trigger is the resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius, who had been brought in from Lithuania as a clean pair of hands to be Minister of Economy and Trade, and the Deputy Prosecutor General Vitaliy Kasko this week. Both had said there is no point trying to work for reform as corruption is too entrenched and senior figures within the government were blocking any attempts at normalising the economy.

In the grand scheme of things Poroshenko is probably also one of those senior figures blocking meaningful reform but depending on who he replaces them with, getting rid of them could be a very positive step.

Yatseniuk has survived a vote of no confidence so remains as PM. 2 members voted in favour of him, 194 voted against, but they didn't get the 226 they required to boot him out. This is partly because the Opposition Bloc (broadly pro-Russian) all abstained. Yatseniuk is wildly anti-Russian but he's so widely disliked that having him there makes everyone else in government look bad by association.

On the subject of Poland's growing right wing

https://twitter.com/gullivercragg/status/700017077323767808

and a useful long read from The Guardian:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/16/conspiracy-theorists-who-have-taken-over-poland

Many find the Law and Justice phenomenon utterly bemusing. Although still a relatively poor nation by western European standards, by any objective measure Poland’s recent history is one of triumph. It has the most successful and dynamic economy of any former communist country. After centuries of occupation and partition, Poland is now an independent state anchored in western political, economic and security institutions such as the EU and Nato. Poles have never been as prosperous and secure in more than 1,000 years of existence, and they now enjoy individual and collective rights their ancestors could only dream of.

And yet a significant minority of Poles believe that Poland and Polishness remain subject to foreign control and malign internal forces.

This is true to some extent but ignores the huge rise in the cost of living that is driving a lot of the disaffection with mainstream parties.

The madness continues. This is why PiS have been keen to stuff the institute of national remembrance with their own ppl.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-19/rewriting-history-in-warsaw-turns-walesa-legend-into-a-spy-story

Ramzan is stepping down!

http://uatoday.tv/politics/leader-of-chechnya-kadyrov-unexpectedly-says-time-has-come-to-step-down-600103.html

Nobody really knows what is going on with him so it could be anything from Putin pushing him out as a liability (timed with the anniversary of the Nemtsov assassination) or bringing him in closer to take a major role in Moscow. Alternatively, he might just want more time to play in the autumn leaves, cradle ducklings or dress up as a medieval knight.

Yatsenyuk is still clinging on to his role as PM but it's being strongly rumoured he will be gone this week and replaced by either Natalie Jaresko, the Finance Minister (who is American but has been resident in Ukraine for 10+ years) or, amazingly, Leszek Balcerowicz, the former deputy PM of Poland who has no obvious link to Ukraine at all. Balcerowicz was responsible for Poland's 'shock therapy' reforms in the 90s.