Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

Assad is highly unlikely to be able to crush all opposition. Even if the US stopped funding rebel groups Qatar and Saudi won't. The idea might be that Russia's intervention and some concerted effort from the US could potentially force the most mainstream groups to cut their losses and agree to power sharing.

Assad may well be too toxic to maintain a key role in the long term but i think from Russia's perspective, the most important thing is the continuity of the state, even in a modified form, rather than all-out loyalty to the individual.

Speaking to a lot of Libyans this week, they're not convinced there will be anything stable coming out of the chaos over the next five to ten years.

I feel like in the end Obama turned out to have the same naïve faith in the idea that democratic values are somehow essential to the human condition as Bush, as though you could just clear the weeds and it would bloom. Either that or Obama and/or Bush had a plan much more elaborate and/or cynical than I can comprehend.

that hope is p seductive when the alternatives are all so shitty

Pootypoot obviously harbors no such illusions

Yeah I don't know man alive. Some conservative kid in my office sent me this the other day: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-10/competing-gas-pipelines-are-fueling-syrian-war-migrant-crisis

I could only read the title, before I had to close out of the window to preserve my workplace sanity.

hmm, I'll definitely read that and consider it, although I always take Zero Hedge with a grain of salt.

http://waxpoetics.com/music/mixtape/jannis-of-jakarta-recordshabibi-funk-drops-another-mixtape-of-north-african-funk-and-disco/

Jannis of Jakarta Records has been dropping heat lately. After every trip to North Africa and the Middle East, he puts together a new mixtape—this time with funk covers (James Brown!) from Egypt and disco from Algeria and Morocco. There’s a killer Tunisian tune that’s a nice mix of modern soul and poppy reggae. There’s even a cover of Free’s “All Right Now.”

30 killed at a peace march in Ankara:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/10/turkey-suicide-bomb-killed-in-ankara

PKK seems to have called a ceasefire ahead of the bombing and is obviously unlikely to have hit a rally in favour of de-escalating the military campaign so could be the first major ISIS attack in central Turkey.

Death toll now over 80.

so horrible
if it's isis this seems like significant shift/ new variant in m.o., no?

HDP blaming the deep state.

The Suruc attack was also a suicide bomber w/ car bomb, as this seems to be. Xp

ah yes

HDP blaming the deep state.

!

Zaman Editor-in-Chief Keneş arrested for ’insulting’ Erdoğan: http://www.todayszaman.com/national_live-todays-zaman-editor-in-chief-kenes-arrested-for-insulting-erdogan_401086.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrSV3Z9gTmM

^fascinating
vicissitudes, folds, uncanny echoes of history

“If the media turn silent, Turkey would be plunged into darkness. Turkey will not turn away from democracy. Turkey will never get dark. Turkey will never turn into an authoritarian regime and it will go forward towards democracy,” Bilici said.

things seem v dark in turkey rn

so no one’s taken credit for bombing yet?
god is it really possible turkish (deep) state could be responsible, or is that conspiratorial fantasy?
i've referenced 1955 istanbul pogrom/kristallnacht itt before (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Istanbul_pogrom), which was instigated by false flag bombing by turkish (deep) state
not distant history, would not be surprising for erdogan to take after menderes in this regard
yet unthinkable, yet not; don't know what to think

echoes of history
echoes & ironies

The key thing about the deep state is that everyone thinks it's working against them, including Erdogan. Working on the assumption that it exists, the derin devlet is generally thought to be secular and elitist, so doesn't exactly fit with Erdogan's populism and soft Islamism. It went virtually unnoticed in the west but a few years ago Erdogan started to remove key military figures from the army and navy in what was thought by many to be an attempt to weaken the power of the deep state. They may be statist and nationalist but idk if I buy the idea that there is collaboration here. The murder of 100 people in your capital weeks before an election hardly looks like an obvious vote winner in itself. If there was another military intervention in domestic politics, I don't think Erdogan would be leading it.

I'm struggling to imagine a secular elitist suicide bomber, but if they've sending arms to ISIS on the sly - http://www.globalresearch.ca/turkey-arrests-soldiers-over-interception-of-syria-bound-weapons-to-terrorists/5450969 - they might be able to ship a willing suicide bomber to ankara

if they've been sending

thanks for insight sharivari
was not acquainted with term "deep state" until tom d.'s reference yesterday; v interesting

The murder of 100 people in your capital weeks before an election hardly looks like an obvious vote winner in itself

true, tho to be devil’s advocate-- just devil's advocate-- such events can be used (politically, rhetorically) to promote need for unification under strong leader; & most of those killed were kurds
but your intuition here re erdogan seems otm
if deep state were responsible, wonder what its motive/ agenda wd be

or if it's non-existent phantasmatic projection that all the different political actors in turkey imagine/ use to their own ends ("The key thing about the deep state is that everyone thinks it's working against them, including Erdogan")
amazing

from ogmor's link

The Turkish authorities have sought to link the affair to US-based preacher Fethullah Gulen who President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accuses of running a parallel state through supporters in the judiciary and police with the aim of usurping him.

Supporters of Gulen, who have been hit by a wave of arrests in the past months, reject the allegations.

The controversy erupted on 19 January 2014, when Turkish forces stopped trucks bound for Syria suspected to have been loaded with weapons. But they found MIT personnel on board.

Foreign rights groups have expressed concern in recent months over the broad judicial campaign against groups in Turkish society deemed to be Gulen supporters.

Weapons intercepted

The government imposed a full-blown media blackout, including on social networks, and the investigation is being carried out in the utmost secrecy.

It is very easy to get lost down an Ergenekon wiki rabbit hole. There is virtually no doubt that senior Turkish military officers have an ongoing agreement to take power in the event of a national crisis (or strongly Islamist party being elected) but the idea that a single shadowy cabal controls the PKK, ISIS, the Revolutionary People's Front, etc, has a long history in Turkey and has always been short on evidence.

The idea that ISIS wants to derail the ceasefire that threatens to strengthen the Kurdish rebels in Syria seems a cleaner explanation.

Gulenism is another odd one, and one of the reasons Zaman should always be taken with a pinch of salt.

it's so weird that no one has claimed credit for this attack. what's the pt of a huge terror attack if you don't want it associated with either your political ideology or at the very least your opponent's?

If the objective was to get the Kurds / Turks blaming each other, it might not be so weird. ISIS also waited 24 hours to claim Suruc so they might still own up to this one.

84% with an 87% turnout!

If he can get the sanctions lifted and bring peace to Ukraine I see no reason he shouldn't be aiming for the full 100 next time.

Wrong thread ^

The reason I had both tabs open is that the FSB claims to have foiled a bomb plot in Moscow possibly linked to involvement in Syria.

http://news.sky.com/story/1567708/russia-foils-terrorist-attack-in-moscow

The UK Justice Secretary (Michael Gove) has apparently asked the Foreign Office and Prime Minister to withdraw a bid for offering training and advice to the Saudi prison system on human rights grounds.

The Foreign Secretary (Philip Hammond) is apparently refusing on the basis that it would diminish the UK's reputation as a reliable trade partner.

Unfortunate bit of timing for Mr. Hammond and HM's Government. Not sure if we are specifically offering advice on how to beat and brutalise old men though tbf.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/irans-parliament-approves-nuclear-deal-with-world-powers/2015/10/13/38bc0e9c-7176-11e5-ba14-318f8e87a2fc_story.html?tid=sm_tw

A preliminary parliamentary vote Sunday saw 139 lawmakers out of the 253 present support the outline of the bill. But despite getting more support Tuesday, hard-liners still tried to disrupt the parliament’s session, shouting that Khamenei himself did not support the bill while trying to raise numerous proposals on its details.

“This decision has no link to the leader!” shouted Mahdi Kouchakzadeh, a hard-line lawmaker who rushed toward the front of parliament to yell at speaker Ali Larijani. “It is a decision by Larijani and we oppose it!”

The semi-official Fars news agency reported that Ali Aghar Zarei, another hard-line lawmaker, broke down weeping after the vote. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who led Iran’s nuclear negotiation team, left the session when it grew tense, the state-run IRNA news agency said.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CRUccsNUYAATt4c.png

an unreliable amnesty international report about a middle east minority? no way.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/15/world/middleeast/russian-military-uses-syria-as-proving-ground-and-west-takes-notice.html

Russia’s fighter jets are, for now at least, conducting nearly as many strikes in a typical day against rebel troops opposing the government of President Bashar al-Assad as the American-led coalition targeting the Islamic State has been carrying out each month this year.

interesting read from the gentleman who tried to broker a deal between assad + israel before the war started:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/10/syria-civil-war-213242?o=0

http://www.pri.org/stories/2015-10-15/taliban-had-hit-list-working-women-when-they-took-over-kunduz

Wow. If the Afghan government could only get its act together and improve life for all, it would help further minimize the Taliban. But neither the Russians, the US or the current Afghan military and government have been able to stop the Taliban, and the Afghan government doesn't seem that much more proficient than the Iraqi one.

On paper Ghani is a more credible state builder than Karzai but he has his work cut out for him. Idk what percentage of Afghanistan is "governed" in any meaningful sense.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/16/with-putin-in-syria-allies-question-obamas-resolve/

Another article that doesn't even hint at what Obama could do in reaction to Russia's intervention other than Zbigniew Brzezinski's moronic assertion that the US should threaten the second biggest military power in the world with "retaliation" if it hits their "assets". Russia's action aligns with the government of Syria, the government of Iraq and the country with the most direct influence over foreign troops on the ground - Iran. It's hardly surprising that they have been able to 'shift the paradigm' or whatever in a way a country backing a fairly disorganised mosaic of rebels hasn't. The fact that the US actions are ostensibly illegal and the Russian ones, on paper, are not also negates much possibility of a non-aggressive route to checking Russia's move.

Beyond that, it's just speculation - Qatar and Saudi are still funneling money and arms to the rebels and have both restated, as has Turkey, that there is no role for Assad in the future. The Saudi visit to Moscow was to confirm that they have no objection to Russia attacking ISIS but the fact that, in the same week, KSA started supplying oil directly to Poland - cutting Russia out, didn't go unnoticed.

I'm not sure how useful it is to make out that allies in the region have stopped talking to the US or have only just started talking to Russia - nether is true.

I mean, the scenario the FP article outlines is the one that Russia is definitely aiming for - i just don't think there is enough evidence to suggest it's working yet.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/vladimir-putins-interventionism-in-the-middle-east-is-not-to-be-admired/2015/10/15/7c939834-7373-11e5-8d93-0af317ed58c9_story.html

Washington’s foreign policy elites have developed a mind-set that mistakes activity for achievement. They assume that every crisis in the world can and should be solved by a vigorous assertion of U.S. power, preferably military power. Failure to do so is passivity and produces weakness. By this logic, Russia and Iran are the new masters of the Middle East. Never mind that those countries are desperately trying to shore up a sinking ally. Their clients, the Alawites of Syria, are a minority regime — representing less than 15 percent of the country’s people — and face deadly insurgencies supported by vast portions of the population. Iran is bleeding resources in Syria. And if Russia and Iran win, somehow, against the odds, they get Syria — which is a cauldron, not a prize. The United States has been “in the driver’s seat” in Afghanistan for 14 years. Has that strengthened America?

Kevin Drumm thinks things are already not going well; he quotes the ISW, "Nonetheless, the Syrian regime and its allies have thus far failed to achieve significant gains... Confirmed reports indicate that pro-regime fighters have seized only six villages and towns... At the same time, regime forces suffered heavy losses in manpower and materiel in the face of heavy rebel resistance. Free Syrian Army (FSA)-affiliated rebels forces claimed to destroy at least twenty tanks and armored vehicles as well as a helicopter gunship in a “tank massacre” on the first day of the offensive....Operations against the Syrian opposition will likely prove harder and slower than anticipated by either Russia or Iran...The foreign allies of the Syrian regime may be forced to expend further financial and military resources in order to preserve their initial gains."

I'm not yet convinced that this is going to be a disaster for Putin. He's supporting the historical status quo government against a revolution which immediately makes it different from Afghanistan or Iraq where the US toppled the entire state infrastructure. If it does become a "quagmire" I'm sure the US will have plenty to do w/ making that happen.

https://twitter.com/erinmcunningham/status/655717060962578432

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/656002890792734720

kinda lol but mostly sad
"I'm glad he's associated with al-Qaeda rather than IS, but obviously I worry."

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/23/world/middleeast/palestinians-israel-stabbings-shootings.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=mini-moth®ion=top-stories-below&WT.nav=top-stories-below&_r=0

Palestinian songs about recent incidents