Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

If the US sent troops into Syria, what could they accomplish other than help to unite the factions that want us out of Syria?

accomplish giving haliburton another trillion dollars

xxxp: thanks!

Even if Russia has bombed a token ISIS site or two it's obvious that their main actions have been against non-ISIS rebels, including probably US-sponsored groups.

― Mordy, Thursday, October 1, 2015 8:39 PM (2 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

afaik, they haven't bombed any hospitals yet. Moral ground ceded and no mistake.

― Terry Micawber (Tom D.), Saturday, October 3, 2015 1:12 PM (3 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

high ground even

― Terry Micawber (Tom D.), Saturday, October 3, 2015 1:12 PM (3 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Yeah, they're only backing a dictator who barrel bombs his own civilians. Honestly focusing on "moral high ground" in this clusterfuck is almost absurd. It's Assad, ISIS or magically materialize a "moderate" rebel army strong enough to challenge both, or just stay out of it and let things shake out as they may. Good luck.

I don't see a good outcome from US intervention. I also don't see a good outcome from Assad winning or from ISIS winning and I have no clue how to select the least bad outcome of these. I guess staying out of it is the least bad for the US, in the short term, but hard to see how it's any better for Syrians than anything else.

"During [my] recent visit to Paris, French President Francois Hollande expressed an interesting idea, saying it is worth trying to unite the efforts of [Syrian President Bashar] Assad's army and the so-called Free Syrian Army,” Putin said during a meeting with Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu.

He said, however, that Russia does not know where exactly the FSA is or who heads it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bsRJDx5hM4

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/08/world/middleeast/yemen-airstrike-said-to-kill-23-at-a-wedding.html?&moduleDetail=section-news-4&action=click&contentCollection=Middle%20East®ion=Footer&module=MoreInSection&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&pgtype=article

Here's what the Saudis are up too

So is there really a third intifada starting?

Good question. Much like the Second Intifada the current spate of stabbings seem partially motivated by Jewish access to the Temple Mount/al-Ḥaram al-Šarīf and concerns over the status quo being changed there - currently it is illegal for Jews to pray on the Temple Mount (nb that there are certainly Israelis who want to change the status quo to allow Jewish visitation and prayer - but Bibi has repeatedly said that the status quo will not be changed)*. Unlike the Second Intifada, which gained a lot of steam from Arafat's encouragement (and releasing a ton of Hamas terrorists from PA jails), Abbas - despite some pretty terrible incitement imo - is trying to taper things down. The low body count so far and lack of suicide bombings also suggest that this isn't quite the Second Intifada (some ppl argue that it is due to the Security Wall and that the situation would currently be much worse without it). Obv the question of whether something is an Intifada or not is mostly in the eye of the beholder - but I just don't see it. This is nothing like the Second Intifada in means, execution, impact, etc. Things could continue to get worse though, and I could see it easily becoming a Third Intifada.

* Sorry if I'm spelling out the obvious, I know you know a lot about this issue.

Good summary in any case.

Four Russian cruise missiles fired at Syria from the Caspian Sea landed in Iran, unnamed US officials say.

also landis is normally reliable:
https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/652197235300528128

if true- crzy.

do you know what he means by "South" there?

southern front i assume

Four Russian cruise missiles fired at Syria from the Caspian Sea landed in Iran, unnamed US officials say.

Any of them land on a hospital?

Mr. Hypocrisy Nonsequitur everyone

did mr. hypocrisy nonsequitur bomb a hospital tho?

lol

"Did we bomb a hospital? Of course not. We bombed three."

http://www.newsweek.com/ngo-says-russian-airstrikes-hit-three-syrian-medical-facilities-two-days-380657

Iran and Russia have both denied it happened but idk if we will ever find out for sure.

Unlike certain other countries, Russia hasn't really been bombing other people for a long time and they're using new missiles that have never been tested in live environment before so it's not implausible some might have exploded in mid air, etc.

the choice content from that conference with the loathsome carter was the claim that involvement in the syrian civil war would lead to attacks in russia, which may or may not be true (dagestan and ingushetia are in a permanent low level war with the fsb anyway) yet would apply in the same measure to the usa

also worth noting:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/foreign-affairs-defense/syrias-second-front/in-recent-months-isis-targeted-hospitals-doctors-journalists/

Regardless, the US's hospital bombing in Afghanistan really has fuck-all to do with what strategies/outcomes/roles of foreign powers would be best in Syria, I mean it really is a non-sequitur.

Similarly with respect to whether Russia has accidentally or intentionally struck targets in Iran. This isn't about a moral scoreboard.

Don't tell me, tell my government and your government.

prof i took Foreign Policy in the Middle East with posted this on facebook today

Syria really isn't so complicated. ISIS is fighting unbelievers (by mainly killing Muslims), the Turks are bombing ISIS (but really bombing Kurds), the Russians are attacking ISIS (but actually attacking the anti-ISIS opposition), Hizbullah is confronting Israel (by killing Syrians), the Saudis are fighting extremism (by backing extremists), and the Syrian regime is bombing terrorists (by slaughtering civilians with barrel bombs).

ha otm but he does not explain what usa is doing

the US is selling weapons to everyone

I said I didn't think it was a third Intifada, but Koplow who is very smart disagrees.

Saw something that the US is going to put a hold on arming "rebels" in Syria. That's a positive development IMO

I am now wondering if a deal is in the works between US/Russia/Iran where we let Assad fight the opposition and then manage an exit for him down the road? Seems tricky though - who takes over if we let Assad crush all opposition, and what's in it for Assad?

a cushy dacha on the volga?

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/10/12/the-new-world-disorder-comment-philip-gourevitch

I really hate to say it, but Putin OTM?

Assad is highly unlikely to be able to crush all opposition. Even if the US stopped funding rebel groups Qatar and Saudi won't. The idea might be that Russia's intervention and some concerted effort from the US could potentially force the most mainstream groups to cut their losses and agree to power sharing.

Assad may well be too toxic to maintain a key role in the long term but i think from Russia's perspective, the most important thing is the continuity of the state, even in a modified form, rather than all-out loyalty to the individual.

Speaking to a lot of Libyans this week, they're not convinced there will be anything stable coming out of the chaos over the next five to ten years.

I feel like in the end Obama turned out to have the same naïve faith in the idea that democratic values are somehow essential to the human condition as Bush, as though you could just clear the weeds and it would bloom. Either that or Obama and/or Bush had a plan much more elaborate and/or cynical than I can comprehend.

that hope is p seductive when the alternatives are all so shitty

Pootypoot obviously harbors no such illusions

Yeah I don't know man alive. Some conservative kid in my office sent me this the other day: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-10/competing-gas-pipelines-are-fueling-syrian-war-migrant-crisis

I could only read the title, before I had to close out of the window to preserve my workplace sanity.

hmm, I'll definitely read that and consider it, although I always take Zero Hedge with a grain of salt.

http://waxpoetics.com/music/mixtape/jannis-of-jakarta-recordshabibi-funk-drops-another-mixtape-of-north-african-funk-and-disco/

Jannis of Jakarta Records has been dropping heat lately. After every trip to North Africa and the Middle East, he puts together a new mixtape—this time with funk covers (James Brown!) from Egypt and disco from Algeria and Morocco. There’s a killer Tunisian tune that’s a nice mix of modern soul and poppy reggae. There’s even a cover of Free’s “All Right Now.”

30 killed at a peace march in Ankara:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/10/turkey-suicide-bomb-killed-in-ankara

PKK seems to have called a ceasefire ahead of the bombing and is obviously unlikely to have hit a rally in favour of de-escalating the military campaign so could be the first major ISIS attack in central Turkey.

Death toll now over 80.

so horrible
if it's isis this seems like significant shift/ new variant in m.o., no?

HDP blaming the deep state.

The Suruc attack was also a suicide bomber w/ car bomb, as this seems to be. Xp

ah yes

HDP blaming the deep state.

!

Zaman Editor-in-Chief Keneş arrested for ’insulting’ Erdoğan: http://www.todayszaman.com/national_live-todays-zaman-editor-in-chief-kenes-arrested-for-insulting-erdogan_401086.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrSV3Z9gTmM

^fascinating
vicissitudes, folds, uncanny echoes of history