a clown car full of millionaires: the 2016 presidential primary thread

for the supposed "establishment candidate" bush seems shockingly media-inadept. i've scarcely seen an event where he didn't seem tongue-tied, awkward, and/or put his foot part way in his mouth. i'm inclined to think the essential contradiction of running in the crazy-centric republican primary as an "establishment" candidate creates a cognitive dissonance that nobody can overcome... not mitt, not jeb!.

some commenter on Lawyers Guns & Money pointed out that Jeb is the Abe Simpson of this race

I thought that was a quality observation except I think Abe Simpson seems more genuine in his incompetent grumbling

for the supposed "establishment candidate" bush seems shockingly media-inadept

― wizzz! (amateurist), Friday, October 2, 2015 11:29 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Florida is a fetid swamp full of rotting dingleberries with voting rights...

I don't feel smug at all about pointing out how shitty a candidate Bush was/is.

A coworker of mine was briefly excited about being part of Jeb's campaign. Like, in an advisory role, not the "hand out flyers and work phones" thing.
I'm just glad she didn't give money. Oh god, I hope she didn't give money.

There are still a lot of moderate, socially ...liberal (not progressive, i.e "obamacare seems bad! iran deal seems bad!", but not anti-choice, (I realize how qualified that is and that's why I phrased it that way) and pro-LGBTQ) Republicans who are still tribally identified as such, who believe that a loyal opposition is essential to good government, and who are struggling - badly - with the tribal ID aspect. They pulled the lever for Obama. They have begun to process how it is going to feel when they do it for the next Democratic nominee. They have not figured out how to reconcile their registration and identification with the GOP.

I like these people and I trust them. I am glad I don't have to be them.

yeah i know a few professors like that. they still sort-of identify as "republicans" even though they have voted for a lot of democratic senators, governors, and presidents in the past five years or so.

i heard the phrase "the Christie candidacy" on the radio last night and laughed aloud

Indiana Jones and the Christie Candidacy

The Christie Candidacy Prophecy

OUT
Christie candidacy

IN
Christie indictments

Not surprising, I suppose: Trump on Meet the Press this morning, clearing the way for his exit.

He's on ABC today, too.

Wait christie is out...?

links to any of this?

Chris Christie's face when Trump and Fiorina were shitting on Atlantic City was probably my favorite part of the second debate

Wait christie is out...?

― Οὖτις, Sunday, October 4, 2015 7:57 AM (42 mihnutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

nah I was just anticipating an entry in WaPo's In/Out list for this year

Christie is conserving his cash so he can wait it out for Jeb! to crash and burn, then step in to inherit Jeb!'s votes.

and likely vice versa

Christie would have a better chance if he invited all the other candidates to a weekend retreat at a big old creepy house far away in the woods and murdered them all one by one under mysterious circumstances. Or maybe he'd have his staff do it.

Or eat them.

it's funny because he's obese
and a horrible person

Just leave them to rot in traffic.

So I guess we pretty much have the TPP now?

It's kind of hilarious how easy we give up our freedoms.

easily, rather

http://i.imgur.com/ip4o7KC.jpg

http://www.elle.com/culture/career-politics/a30203/hillary-clinton-hot-mess/

first thing that's kinda made me pro-Hillary - certainly better than any other candidate on this issue (also note ref to repealing the PLCAA, which is crucial imo for the legal prospects of outlawing gun ownership): https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/10/05/morning-plum-hillary-clinton-just-started-a-gunfight/

it's especially surprising with her because gun control isn't popular among the general electorate.

http://a5.img.talkingpointsmemo.com/image/upload/w_652/mn76xjxwkjbfjaj6qnbx.jpg

of course there are the usual canards about campaign promises and tacking left during the primary and then moving back toward the center during the general election. but she's still the first one out with meaningful reform proposals, so yeah, gotta give credit where credit's due on this one.

i can remember circa the brady bill reading about hillary pushing for more and some in the white house hemming and hawing and hillary basically saying 'those ppl will never vote for us anyhow so fuck 'em'

otm

James Baker and the Jews vs. Hillary Clinton and the NRA

Well, at the least it is something she can potentially leverage against Sanders, who tacks left on pretty much every issue but guns.

Though actually I suppose I don't really know where he stands on the issue these days, only that it seems to be one of his most overtly Big Politics compromise/wiggle-room issues.

James Baker and the Jews

I prefer their early stuff

'Gun control' is not a monolith of course, and the phrasing of questions changes the answers - there's plenty of area where Obama can accurately say that most people disagree with the NRA.

I am more interested about Hil's polling showing this to be a winning gen-election issue, as that is of course the only reason she says anything.

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/651146630226272256

rubio: flying over syria is worth nuclear war with russia

This is just viral marketing for the Rambo III reboot.

I know polls this early aren't very meaningful, BUT STILL:

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/sanders-outperforms-clinton-general-election-match-ups-ia-nh-n438491

Uh oh, here come the pro buzz killers

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/sanders-outperforms-clinton-general-election-match-ups-ia-nh-n438491

― schwantz, Monday, October 5, 2015 8:07 PM (49 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Yes, it's possible and not necessarily surprising that Bernie Sanders does perform marginally better with (yankee) white rural people than Hillary Clinton.

Now, how does he do with the urban residents, disproportionately black and hispanic, that make up the vast majority of the democratic party and without whom the current democratic coalition does not win presidential elections?

and if your goal is to expand the democratic party's reach to rural whites, who is better to do that, a brooklyn jew who moved to near-canada new england or a methodist from the most representative state in the nation who lived for nearly two decades in appalachia?

"Yes, it's possible and not necessarily surprising that Bernie Sanders does perform marginally better with (yankee) white rural people than Hillary Clinton."

especially in a libertarian state adjacent to the one he represents

a methodist from the most representative state in the nation who lived for nearly two decades in appalachia?

Hillary's reputation, as established over a couple of decades in the public eye, has no point in common with the portrait you just painted of her. Good luck convincing large numbers of rural whites that this is the 'true' Hillary Clinton.

but what if people vote on the issues, what then

i'll state simply that that is in fact who she is, that it's far too early to say how any candidate is going to be represented by themselves or others in the primary let alone the general electorate, and that however those representations transpire, my essential point stands

hillary clinton methodist
About 449,000 results (0.48 seconds)

hillary clinton jewish
About 13,900,000 results (0.51 seconds)

The "urban" residents haven't heard of him yet. Not sure what there is about him that you think will turn them off so much.

As for rural whites, it's not impossible to imagine that a white male with a less-restrictive take on gun control might appeal to them more than Hillary Clinton.