a clown car full of millionaires: the 2016 presidential primary thread

Yeah, well I've assumed the same thing so far as well, but... What happens when EVERY GOP-candidate is boneheaded and gaffe-prone? In 2012 is always reverted to Mitt Romney, because he was sorta acceptable to enough people, but Bush seems unable to do the same thing (though it's early days, so who knows). And Bush is tied to the most disliked president of recent times, whose policies were a catastrophe for millions, and he keeps on gaffing by defending everything. Perhaps Rubio will take over shortly, I don't know. I can't remember who Rubio is, most of the time.

The idea that this was the strongest GOP-field in generations... In hindsight that's pretty hilarious.

xp i think the presumption is that the nomination falls to the candidate who visually fits the stock photo which was the Romonster and this year is JEB!
it appears to be the only thing he has going for him

Well, I've thought that as well. But... Jeb is really really low in the polls at this point, much lower than Romney ever was. He's also way behind on endorsements, compared to other winning candidates from the last cycles, so the establishment isn't lining up to push him, the way they do with Hilary, and the way they'd done to a much larger extent with Romney at this point in the cycle. And Rubio might fit the photo more, and be less poisonous to people who can remember more than eight years back. On the other hand, both Bush and Rubio served in Florida, so they cannibalize each others establishment bases. Number two in the endorsement count is Christie... It's all a mess...

to be frank, there is no way the republicans are gonna nominate a woman or a person of color (this includes orange people or people with people of color last names) without alienating vast swaths of their key demo. so that leaves a much clearer actual field: Graham (to fey), Santorum (lol), Perry (too stupid), Walker (who?), Christie (too fat, too much of a yankee), Paul (too wonky), Kasich (just not good at this) and JEB!

That argument feels right :)

I'm still very confused, though. Why won't 538 tell me what to think?

I'm just guessing (though there's probably data out there somewhere), but it would make sense to me if the GOP establishment is just investing less in this farce overall than they did in 2012, and focusing more on keeping Congress and statehouses. Leaving the primaries to be underwritten by the Kochs and other random crazy billionaires. Establishment will still jump in hard in the general to get the vote out for down-ticket races and avoid brand-damaging humiliation.

(To the extent it's possible to protect this brand.)

THAT argument feels right :(

it kinda makes some sense. if i were an old rich gop establishment fart looking to give away millions, i would want my money to go to more local issues/primaries as well.

but it doesn't strike me that the gop is hurting for money this year. or the democrats. there's money everywhere. and if there's plenty of money, it still makes sense to push hard for the presidency (even if it's obvious they'll fall short) because every additional vote they get for a GOP president helps all their downballot candidates as well.

The deal was so personal to Mrs. Fiorina that she referred to HP as “Héloïse” and Compaq as “Abélard,” a pair whose romantic letters became treasures of medieval French literature, which she studied at Stanford. (Abélard was eventually castrated after fights with Héloïse’s family, a detail Compaq executives were unaware of at the time.)

lollll

when has she demonstrated an acquaintance with any language

When Carly got down to the nut cutting

Rarely watch the Sunday talk shows anymore, so I missed this bit of fun with Chuck Todd and Trump

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-obama-muslim_55fed420e4b0fde8b0ce9ef2

Donald Trump still won't acknowledge President Barack Obama was born in the U.S. and insinuated on Sunday that the country has already had its first Muslim president.

The real estate mogul called in to "Meet The Press" Sunday morning to address the ongoing controversy that followed his lack of response after a supporter asked Trump how he would address "a problem in this country ... called Muslims." Host Chuck Todd used the line of question to turn to another tea party stumping point: that the president isn't a U.S. citizen.

Trump refused to share his current views on the factually inaccurate sentiment, instead telling Todd he just doesn't like talking about it and "won't talk about it."

"I just don't discuss it," the candidate said. "Really, it hasn't been brought up in a long time."

Trump is actually one of the forefathers of the Obama birther conspiracy. He made headlines in 2011 after persistently demanding to see the president's birth certificate while raising doubts over Obama's birthplace in Hawaii. Even after the White House released an official copy of the document, Trump questioned its authenticity.

Todd also asked Trump how he'd feel should a Muslim president actually be elected down the road -- not a far-fetched idea, as the population of Muslim Americans is expected to surpass 6.2 million by 2030. Trump's response wasn't terribly shocking.

"Would I be comfortable? I don’t know if we have to address it right now," he said. "But I think it is certainly something that could happen."

Todd reiterated his question before Trump interrupted:

"I mean, some people have said it already happened, frankly," Trump said, presumably referring to Obama. "But of course you wouldn’t agree with that."

Todd continued to press Trump on whether he believed Obama was Christian but the candidate said he didn't "talk about people's faith" and added that he was "willing to take [the president] at his word."

Despite his reluctance to address an individual's faith, the candidate made a point to note that he "love[s] the Muslims" and thinks "they're great people" during a stop at a high school homecoming Saturday night. He gave Todd a similar one-liner before reversing himself to say he believes there is, in fact, a problem there.

"I feel strongly that Muslims are excellent. I know so many Muslims that are such fabulous people," he told Todd. "

many such cases

"I just don't discuss it," the candidate said. "Really, it hasn't been brought up in a long time."

"Up until just now, when you asked that question," he failed to add.

The idea that this was the strongest GOP-field in generations... In hindsight that's pretty hilarious.

But whose idea was that? As far as I can tell it was 100% Republican Party marketing language, which was parroted by "journalists." Anyone who looked at any of these fucking imbeciles a year ago could have told you there's no universe in which any of them wins a national election. I mean, it's entertaining (in a horrifying sort of way) to watch/read their ridiculous statements, and even more horrifying to imagine the kind of assholes who support them, but ultimately the entire Republican nomination contest this year is an exercise in futility.

i do see a universe where some of them can win vs someone as hated as Rodham

Chuck Todd, slave to the stars, was offering that moldy fig to anyone in earshot.

xpost

And the proofs sounded so convincing! They had governors from blue states with broad appeal! They had handsome young senators with immigrant appeal. And pros with exemplary credentials.

They had a bunch of loonies brought into office on a wave of resentment, with no policy ideas to offer, and the brother of the most hated president in decades. Congrats.

I was assuring you guys a year ago that Jeb Bush is a horrible campaigner too.

but so was his father.

SOMEONE has to be nominated.

Twice this morning, different shows, Trump got asked about his casino answer during the debate. Both times he said he didn't deny that he tried to get casinos in Florida, just that he denied ever meeting with Bush personally. I hope he keeps getting questioned on this, whether it makes any difference or not--such an easily provable lie.

http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2015/09/16/gop-debate-cnn-debate-8p-5.cnn/video/playlists/2016-presidential-debates/

x-post: Well, if Bush Sr might have been a lousy campaigner, but didn't Lee Atwater orchestrate one of the most infamous campaigns ever?

that's why he called Atwater -- Bush was going to lose and lose convincingly in early fall '88.

eh i wonder about that, bush campaign was dirty and effective and dukakis had that really nice convention bounce but i still think the country basically wanted four more years of reagan and that was what bush promised them and then paid dearly when he broke that promise by agreeing to a tax hike w/ the dem congress which of course ronnie would have never done (except for all the times he, yknow, did). that dukakis after dark sketch paints a pretty accurate picture of how most of america viewed (and tbh that same portion still views) liberalism and the democratic party - "we represent unpopular and discredited views".

also skeptical that this gop field is notably weak or couldn't have reasonably described as the strongest field in some time (does anyone want to argue in favor of 2012? 1996?). extremely skeptical that the gop can't win next year.

Gingrich served in the govt fyi

Sure, but not this decade, and he was running as an 'outsider' candidate. Which is ridiculous and hilarious, but that was still what he was pushing.

Dukakis was a poor candidate -- the worst Dem of my lifetime after Al Gore -- but at least through the summer was poised to win. I tend to bow to Richard Ben Cramer and Elizabeth Drew on the prediction front.

Sure, but not this decade, and he was running as an 'outsider' candidate. Which is ridiculous and hilarious, but that was still what he was pushing.

So Huckabee's an outsider too. And Jeb!.

...?

walker implosion is so wonderful and still surprising to me (he'd built the base of support, he had the money supporters, he was palatable to tea party, evangelicals, and the establishment), but it's not unprecedented - libby dole and dan quayle had years of beltway speculation over their presidential aspirations w/ dole in particular seen as a potential future of the party and then were never serious contenders and dropped out before the primaries, phil gramm was possible the third most powerful and important person in the party then flopped in iowa and dropped out before new hampshire, paul laxalt was one of reagan's best friends and a powerful member of senate leadership and dropped out in august 87, alabama lost to ole miss last night, these things happen.

i think the 88 election was where i first became familiar w/ the phrase 'the lesser of two evils' and boy did you hear it everywhere

You can't call a former Speaker of the House a Washington outsider, no more than you could call Huck or Jeb outsiders even though they haven't been governors since 2006.

They all hate the government so much they want a lifetime job in it.

Walker recalls Pawlenty, too, at least in how (presumably) quick their exits were. I guess they were different in how they presented themselves: allegedly big, tough Walker vs. nice-guy Pawlenty.

all just to torpedo it and say "seeee? i told you it doesn't work"

stop hitting yourself, America.

xp

pawlenty was never that big a hero to the movement and had never actually led the race or even come close

Other big-build/sudden-flop examples who imploded so quickly we tend to forget they happened: Wesley Clark, Fred Thompson.

newt stayed in dc, did crazy think tank work, and appeared on fox news frequently (after all, he is one of the gop's leading intellectuals), he did the same circuits the rest of these assholes do. he wasn't jerry brown circa 92.

Washington outsider thing goes hand-in-hand w these clowns complaining about the lamestream media while they are on TV constantly promoting themselves.

Graham (to fey),

giving an impression of vague unworldliness.
"his mother was a strange, fey woman"
having supernatural powers of clairvoyance.
SCOTTISH
fated to die or at the point of death.
"now he is fey, he sees his own death, and I see it too"

???

clark and thompson were more cavalry candidates that were somehow gonna swoop in and change everything. there are severe drawbacks to waiting too long to enter a race and those candidates didn't have the campaigning skills to overcome it. trump is kiiinda that type of candidate only he wasn't drafted like those guys (at least not by the establishment/press), had his own money which negates alot of the weakness of a late announcement, and had a message that resonated (so he's more of a perot, with a similar half-life). feel like biden if he enters or cuomo if he'd entered in 92 are a different kind of candidate; rick perry probably appeared to be that kind of candidate - i saw so so many perry bumper stickers in fall of 2011 - but then his poor campaigning skills made him more of a clark/thompson (though in his case it was more being astonishingly dumb than astonishingly dull)(plus soft on immigration).

agree w/ jclc, lindsey graham is worldly and immortal

You can't call a former Speaker of the House a Washington outsider, no more than you could call Huck or Jeb outsiders even though they haven't been governors since 2006.

I'm not sure whether I'm being particularly unclear or you're being particularly obtuse: I'm aware and saying that it's a ridiculous claim, but it's still an angle he was pushing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYl8s6VXYpA

xxp, thought it was "fey", i guess it's "fay"?
"too", not "to" in any case

xxp, thought it was "fey", i guess it's "fay"?

Definition of fay in English:
noun

literary
A fairy.
EXAMPLE SENTENCES
Origin

Late Middle English: from Old French fae, faie, from Latin fata 'the Fates', plural of fatum (see fate). Compare with fairy.

???

"he sounds like a homosexual"

fancy that