a clown car full of millionaires: the 2016 presidential primary thread

Have they taken into account their injecting bias by constantly polling that question?

Which is obviously why they call themselves "Scots-Irish."
― I might like you better if we Yelped together (Phil D.), Sunday, 13 September 2015 23:46 (6 days ago) Permalink

Actually, they don't, except for a handful here and there. Other people do. But by and large they describe their ethnicity as "American".

German-American?
― Your Favorite Album in the Cutout Bin, Monday, 14 September 2015 16:50 (5 days ago) Permalink

correct

the biggest question is the german-american vote. now that obama isn't running, where will they turn???
― 1996 ball boy (Karl Malone), Monday, 14 September 2015 22:57 (5 days ago) Permalink

this should be obvious

and while i'm obviously not claiming that there exists any such monolithic thing, i wouldn't be so quick to laugh either. consider that Ohio, in which German is the predominant ethnic heritage, and in at least one county in which nearly half of residents speak German at home (as do more than 10% in two other counties, as well as in two in IN, two in WI, one each in IA and MO, six in the Dakotas, three in MT, and one in Western NY), voted twice for German/African-American Barack Obama after voting twice for George W. Bush, also of (mostly English but) part-German descent, as it did for his Dad. IA too voted twice for Obama after voting nearly twice for Bush (who won in '04 and lost in '00 by a mere .3%). Going back further you could say that the German-American midwest flipped from the Dems in '48 to German-American Eisenhower in '52 and '56, back to the Dems in '64 if not '60, back to part-German-American Nixon (and his German-American Secretary of State) in '68 and '72, and then back to the Dems in '76: OH and WI did all of this (going Dem in '64 but not '60), IL and IA did it until '76 (when they stayed Republican with (near-)neighbors Ford/Dole by 1-2 pts), and more-Southern MO (the only one of these states that didn't go for Eisenhower) did it starting in the civil rights era in '60. Many of the prominent sub-Presidential politicians from these states are German as well, often appealing across party lines, including Montana's Brian Schweitzer, North Dakota's Kent Conrad, South Dakota's Tom Daschle, Minnesota's Tim Pawlenty and Jesse Ventura, Missouri's Dick Gephardt, Nebraska's Chuck Hagel and Indiana's Dick Lugar, to both of whom Obama played up his close Senatorial ties, and Ohio's John Boehner.

the thing is he really, really looks like an establishment republican. like the exact type of white guy that looks 'presidential' in these circles, where romney looked like a mannequin with dark secrets and jeb looks like he should be the assistant manager at a food court establishment. depending how aggressive he plays the campaign i could see him as a lot of people's go-to pick for veep, in any case.
― Gorefest Frump (Doctor Casino), Tuesday, 15 September 2015 02:25 (4 days ago) Permalink

nope, to anglo southerners, and german mid-/mountain-westerners, he looks czech-croatian. not that they actually think that, of course, but subconsciously, he does not strike them as one of their own. which is why he has a little bump in NH where he's all over tv, but is still on the basement stairs nationally. waspy mitt otoh looks the part, even if he doesn't always talk it, and i wouldn't be shocked if he gets in should jeb continue to tank for another two months, rubio continue to look like kid gop president, walker continue to be just an inch taller and xanax bar sleepier, and christie continue to be morbidly obese, threatened with indictment, and sound and act like he's never been south or west of camden.

Trump on Rushmore sounds super amazing and I am totally down to see this happen
― Meta Forksclove-Liebeskind (forksclovetofu), Wednesday, 16 September 2015 02:03 (3 days ago) Permalink

would be appropriate given that it was designed by an anti-semite and trump is a roy cohn-trained fascist demagogue who's now inspiring ethnic violence and shrugging at eliminationist rhetoric

Guy who takes my temp and pressure at the chemo clinic was talking up DT to another nurse today. And he's a first-gen immigrant.
― skateboards are the new combover (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 16 September 2015 03:38 (3 days ago) Permalink

"happy to be here" (and, often, to bring the taste for authoritarianism they were supposedly leaving behind). each new arrival will look around to see who to step on to climb the ladder of whiteness. extra cheese is $2.

what was pataki's point in running?
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 15 September 2015 22:03 (4 days ago) Permalink

make everyone else look better

A pretty knowledgeable friend of mine posted on FB that 30% of evangelicals vote for Democrats.
― skateboards are the new combover (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 16 September 2015 16:44 (3 days ago) Permalink

not my milieu, of course, but "evangelical" ≠ right-wing fundamentalist, necessarily, and in particular is descriptive of a lutheran denomination that predominates in the not-infrequently-lefty upper midwest.

I don't know what the actual thought process is that leads someone to say Ben Carson is who I want for president.
― something totally new, it’s the AOR of the twenty first century (tipsy mothra), Tuesday, 15 September 2015 15:30 (4 days ago) Permalink

I think I do. From a 30,000-foot-perspective, it's nearly the same thing that leads someone to support Trump, despite the polar-opposite styles - fear, the core motivation in the GOP base* (alongside, of course, its corollary hate). What are they afraid of? At the broadest level, loss of social/socioeconomic position, principally from the simultaneous decline in wages/jobs and ethnic transformation of the country, particularly through an increase in the number and dispersal of primarily hispanic immigrants, which they stupidly think are causally connected, not to mention the continuing advancement of other groups they sought to beat down to prop themselves up, african-americans especially. Yes, Carson is black, but he's a black defender of the status quo un-level playing field; they like black people just fine if they stay in their place and out of white peoples' wallets and especially when they say so. But racial acceptability is just a predicate, however, to the real issue - Carson assuages their fear because he has a surgeon (and/or fundamentalist)'s preternatural confidence in his own ability(/belief), augmented by the calming effect of his professional presentation skills and perhaps a touch of the "magic negro" trope. Trump assuages their fear in a very different way, with the faux-confidence of his bluster, his faux-not giving a shit what anyone thinks, and his repeated assertions that he would be beholden to no one and win at everything indicating to these or similar voters that he would run over whatever they're afraid of and magically restore whatever they've lost. That some of his supporters are purported religious conservatives who are supposed to object to his should-be-obvious greedy libertine secularism is actually no contradiction at all, because these voters don't actually believe, but rather seek from religion the same thing they do from the candidate - not self-improvement or even quite spiritual sustenance but the reassurance of a simple story in lieu of a too-difficult explanation for something they don't understand. Nor does the candidate's lack of actual qualifications play any role in this thought process as these people are similarly too dumb to understand what does or does not qualify anyone for office. It's the same thing with W and "keeping us safe" - that 9/11 happened on his watch and quite possibly because he was a heedless dumbass does not even begin to cross these voters' minds. They were safe under his administration because his manner made them feel safe.

*the GOP is the fear party, the Dems the hope party. with the further-right and -left wings the extremes of each motivation, with the right drifting into panic and the left into fantasy, neither recognizing the actual nature of the country they live in until elections remind them, leading them to cynical distrust/disaffection if not conspiracy theory, and turning the guns on their own side

...especially if they lose but also if they win and face the reality of governance with unfriendly partners, which is a lot different from the theatre of partisan rally/march/protest

Gonna take a drink everytime I hear "...the only person on this stage..."
― kevin smith what a bro (Myonga Vön Bontee), Thursday, 17 September 2015 01:37 (2 days ago) Permalink

Huckabee: "I'm the only person on this stage tonight who nobody's paying the least bit of attention to."
― clemenza, Thursday, 17 September 2015 01:37 (2 days ago) Permalink

actual lol

Trump (still) on coke. Actually, seems to be fading a bit, someone give him a bump.
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 17 September 2015 02:33 (2 days ago) Permalink

and he complained afterwards about the length. what a low-energy person.

(and bipolar, perhaps?)

please send me one of those grapefruit sculpins, btw, doc(?)

Neb!

jeb! in town today. fundraiser, appearance at young republicans, and then some gladhanding w/ the football crowd. leaned hard on what was basically a compassionate conservatism message, maybe he's already pivoting for the general, maybe he's deciding the way to beat trump is to play up the contrast, maybe he's trying to steal kasich's mojo, who knows. one thing i've noticed more and more (and maybe this is super apparent to ppl that have actually watched the debates, good luck w/ all that) is that to the extent he has a personality it's him trying to tell jokes but they're really weak jokes, like today saying 'i love taking selfies' and then rolling his eyes and laughing. he's just nowhere near as charismatic as his brother, the pinto to dubya's otter. it's not the stiffness of romney either.

more than charisma, dubya also was way more of an alpha male. I still think jeb is gonna win but I think people watching him him get bullied around again and again on stage is gonna do permanent damage. even people who might support him for pragmatic reasons + hate trump are forming a lasting impression right now.

'please apologize to my wife sir'
'no, fuck you'
'umm...okay I guess'

"In fact, tell her to apologize for me for reflecting light at my eyeballs."

yeah dubya had a much more instinctive grasp of being a dick in battle. granted gore was custom-made as an opponent for this kind of thing but the guy knew he had a troll-able mark and went for it.

but i also think, and this is easy to forget now because his presidency went so completely differently, but when he was talking up the compassionate conservative angle on the campaign trail, it had a sell-ability because he could tap into a certain clinton-esque feel-your-pain vibe. nothing specific that he said, just he could put the right hush in his voice. maybe the born-again thing helped him there or something, but he pushed the buttons of a guy who felt Compassion. jeb! isn't totally unconvincing (i mean, on affect here, not like reading the actual proposals lol), but i can't see him getting people to believe he sincerely gives a shit about much of anything. it's like he's volunteering at a fund-raiser for something else. we've had a real good turnout at the bake sale, this is my first one but people say there's been more people that last year. sure, it's been hot out, but you know, it's for a good cause, and my wife brought extra bottled water so really we're all set.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-biden-edges-closer-to-joining-presidential-race-1442617215

https://fbcdn-photos-a-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xaf1/v/t1.0-0/p240x240/12004115_406288642901995_5161902385974440175_n.jpg?efg=eyJpIjoiYiJ9&oh=d87f987c6f83082fe35db9ba19ebf43f&oe=569A4FF9&__gda__=1453913630_b291768eb2b77c4adec136f9309e754a

cmon Joe MBNA, cut into that Restoration cult

The first major national poll since the second GOP debate finds Carly Fiorina surging into a second place and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker’s campaign in total collapse.

The survey by CNN of 444 registered Republican voters put Donald Trump in first place with 24% support, a drop of 8 points since their last poll, and Fiorina in second place with 15%. Fiorina earned plaudits on the right for her debate performance, which included multiple clashes with Trump, although fact checkers pointed out that she vividly cited footage from a hidden camera video of Planned Parenthood that does not appear to exist. 52% of respondents said Fiorina was the winner of the debate while 31% said Trump lost.

Dr. Ben Carson, who had surged into second place in many polls after the first debate in August, stood in third at 14%. Sen. Marco Rubio leapt from single digits to fourth place with 11% of the vote, followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 9%, Sen. Ted Cruz and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 6%, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 4%, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 3%, Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 2%, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at 1%.

Missing from the list was Walker, who earned less than half a percentage point support, putting the former frontrunner in the same category as long shots like Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, and former New York Gov. George Pataki.

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/scott-walker-implodes-carly-fiorina-soars-new-cnn-poll

ta ta!

I was thinking, that with five candidates under 1%, and therefore not being invited even to junior campaigns, five candidates would prob drop out soon, and their support being redistributed, causing the field to coalesce, helping establishment candidates. But there is no support to redistribute... Trump, Fiorina and Carson just trounce the candidates with elected experience. Everyone hates the GOP, even the GOP voters. Was it ever like this in 2012, that the anti-establishment candidates were polling quite a lot more than 50% of the voters?

junior debates, not campaigns.

Nah, Romney was never lower than second, and the only non-governmental candidates were Cain and Gingrich. I'm not sure anti- vs non-governmental makes sense for Gingrich or Fiorina (she ran CPAC for a while), but certainly Gingrich had been around long enough that everyone in the Republican party had some view on him (which was, they hated him).

I mean, this looks rocky, but you can tell what's happening:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

But this is just nuts:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Hundreds of "The Sun Ain't Gonna Shine Anymore" headlines imminent.

Guess he won't be punching any donkeys anytime soon.

Gingrich served in the govt fyi

Xp

so i know this is probably just a statistical blip and who knows what it means but i would sincerely like to savor this for a moment

http://i.imgur.com/MKwCFqQ.jpg

Don't be condescending. That information is available on wikipedia.

xp

I guess Walker can now retreat to Secretary of Labor in the fantasy Republican Cabinet.

the thing is that (unlike sanders) every temporary gop frontrunner leaps ahead in the polls only to find themselves confronted with their own utter boneheaded policy and personal gaffes... or sometimes BECAUSE of those gaffes, which then catch up with them. It's not like Fiorina is gonna cruise to the nomination on the back of the imaginary planned parenthood tapes, it's just bobby in the shower. Once the viewers catch up, there's nothing more to see.

Bobby in the shower?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCEjeTb1rrs
(big build up to a supposed revelation that will CHANGE EVERYTHING that turns out to be desperate obfuscation, viewers leave en masse)

Oh right

http://www.youtube.com/watch?t=11&v=SMQqfsU8Tu8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=SMQqfsU8Tu8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMQqfsU8Tu8

Yeah, well I've assumed the same thing so far as well, but... What happens when EVERY GOP-candidate is boneheaded and gaffe-prone? In 2012 is always reverted to Mitt Romney, because he was sorta acceptable to enough people, but Bush seems unable to do the same thing (though it's early days, so who knows). And Bush is tied to the most disliked president of recent times, whose policies were a catastrophe for millions, and he keeps on gaffing by defending everything. Perhaps Rubio will take over shortly, I don't know. I can't remember who Rubio is, most of the time.

The idea that this was the strongest GOP-field in generations... In hindsight that's pretty hilarious.

xp i think the presumption is that the nomination falls to the candidate who visually fits the stock photo which was the Romonster and this year is JEB!
it appears to be the only thing he has going for him

Well, I've thought that as well. But... Jeb is really really low in the polls at this point, much lower than Romney ever was. He's also way behind on endorsements, compared to other winning candidates from the last cycles, so the establishment isn't lining up to push him, the way they do with Hilary, and the way they'd done to a much larger extent with Romney at this point in the cycle. And Rubio might fit the photo more, and be less poisonous to people who can remember more than eight years back. On the other hand, both Bush and Rubio served in Florida, so they cannibalize each others establishment bases. Number two in the endorsement count is Christie... It's all a mess...

to be frank, there is no way the republicans are gonna nominate a woman or a person of color (this includes orange people or people with people of color last names) without alienating vast swaths of their key demo. so that leaves a much clearer actual field: Graham (to fey), Santorum (lol), Perry (too stupid), Walker (who?), Christie (too fat, too much of a yankee), Paul (too wonky), Kasich (just not good at this) and JEB!

That argument feels right :)

I'm still very confused, though. Why won't 538 tell me what to think?

I'm just guessing (though there's probably data out there somewhere), but it would make sense to me if the GOP establishment is just investing less in this farce overall than they did in 2012, and focusing more on keeping Congress and statehouses. Leaving the primaries to be underwritten by the Kochs and other random crazy billionaires. Establishment will still jump in hard in the general to get the vote out for down-ticket races and avoid brand-damaging humiliation.

(To the extent it's possible to protect this brand.)

THAT argument feels right :(

it kinda makes some sense. if i were an old rich gop establishment fart looking to give away millions, i would want my money to go to more local issues/primaries as well.

but it doesn't strike me that the gop is hurting for money this year. or the democrats. there's money everywhere. and if there's plenty of money, it still makes sense to push hard for the presidency (even if it's obvious they'll fall short) because every additional vote they get for a GOP president helps all their downballot candidates as well.