a clown car full of millionaires: the 2016 presidential primary thread

what's interesting about that to me isn't so much that he's clearly hurt jeb but that walker's swoon and rubio's difficulty gaining any traction can't really be blamed on trump.

the only comparison for this weirdness is perot in june of 92 (and amazing now to think someone, even a billionaire running third party, could wait until june of the election year to announce a run). if trump's denouement approaches perot's for weirdness i will be so happy, though if he says he's bowing out because jeb has pictures of his daughter lezzing it up i'm gonna really have to insist on a firm 'pics or it didn't happen' policy. in fact if anyone here has ties to the trump campaign i might advise preemptively releasing pics of ivanka lezzing it up just to head the bushes off at the pass.

kinda suspect what will eventually do trump in is ppl getting sick of hearing about him or him "shockingly" underperforming in iowa or new hampshire. even then i'm not sure that will matter much to his true believers, it took a long time for palin's audience to shrink (i'd guess around the time she tried to make out she was the real victim of the gabby giffords shooting).

Trump's candidacy is a gift to oppo research and the candidate savvy enough to use it.

(and amazing now to think someone, even a billionaire running third party, could wait until june of the election year to announce a run).

and then dropping out before getting right back in 34 days away from Election Day.

(xpost) I just can't see that. I'm still sure he won't win, but I can't see that it'll be because someone digs something up on him. What illusions could that 28% who support him be harboring? He's a cutthroat billionaire, so I imagine anything financially shady, even illegal, you take as a given--maybe you even admire it. He's been a tabloid guy for decades, with one or two or however many glamorous wives, so what kind of sex scandal could you unearth that would be surprising? I have to believe he's immune to that stuff.

i had to look up the trump rape allegation milo alluded to a few posts ago, because apparently i had no idea, and...ugh

(xpost) I just can't see that. I'm still sure he won't win, but I can't see that it'll be because someone digs something up on him. What illusions could that 28% who support him be harboring? He's a cutthroat billionaire, so I imagine anything financially shady, even illegal, you take as a given--maybe you even admire it. He's been a tabloid guy for decades, with one or two or however many glamorous wives, so what kind of sex scandal could you unearth that would be surprising? I have to believe he's immune to that stuff.
--clemenza

At this point I don't think exhuming and desecrating the remains of St. Ronnie would dent him

(xpost) By sex scandal, I meant a parade of women coming forth as with Herman Cain, not that (which I didn't know about either). When I look up that story on Google, I see it's been out there for a month now--the story being revisited, I mean; it dates back to 1989--and apparently even that hasn't hurt him.

The core of Trump is very old--the rabid, reckless, and completely phony populism--but in other ways, he might be new, or at least give new meaning to the Teflon concept.

i have no idea what hurts him. they've been hitting w/ some heavy rino stuff - donating to hillary, praising an obama policy once (lol at attempting to make trump look like an obama fan), donating to and writing a very nice note to nancy pelosi. NANCY PELOSI. - none of it stuck. the single payer stuff and the anti-wall st stuff doesn't stick and hasn't hurt him. jeb has to be losing his mind. the word 'perot' either comes up a million times everyday or it is understood it is never to come up at all.

brian beutler going 'fuck it, i'll be first on the limb' - http://www.newrepublic.com/article/122689/donald-trump-favorite-win-republican-primary?utm_medium=social&utm_source=nfrb&utm_campaign=20150901

well, there was that poll which emerged yesterday: Trump supporters don't care that he isn't a Republican.

Short of sabotaging Trump by changing the rules in the middle of the race, which would risk driving him to mount an independent candidacy, the race itself will have to take on a completely new character for Trump to lose steam. (The New Republic piece.)

That's what I was thinking would happen at some point--this South Carolina pledge points in that direction (the logic of it, which someone questioned upthread, aside; just the fact that there's an attempt to do something). I'm not sure what the something would be, but I'm sure there's no end to the ways a party can sabotage someone's candidacy if it wants to.

]i have no idea what hurts him. they've been hitting w/ some heavy rino stuff - donating to hillary, praising an obama policy once (lol at attempting to make trump look like an obama fan), donating to and writing a very nice note to nancy pelosi. NANCY PELOSI. - none of it stuck. the single payer stuff and the anti-wall st stuff doesn't stick and hasn't hurt him. jeb has to be losing his mind. the word 'perot' either comes up a million times everyday or it is understood it is never to come up at all.

I kinda always figured they wouldn't let him live down donating money to clinton, but his answer to that (she's a politician who can be bought, and I bought her) was so smooth.

yeah like maybe the real donald trump was a democrat or whatever, i doubt he gave his political beliefs more than ten minutes thought (hell this is probably still true), but that he gave more to dems than republicans historically until a few years back seemed more a reflection that this is someone who made their money in real estate in new york.

When he burns out, I think Cruz is going to end up with the Trump crazies.

OTM about not starting another Trump thread imo

presidential elections have been Terry Southern farces for longer than we realize, as when Nixon went on TV just before the '68 election and in a sadistic reverie said "NOW IT COMES DOWN TO THE NUT CUTTING."

yeah cruz being 'nice' to trump and playing the long game there has been the first thing he's done that betrayed any of the intelligence beltway media types have tried to convince us he harbors. was a little alarmed to see how well he was polling tbh.

it's not even that, I just think the creep has it in him

Good Lord, Dick.

http://i.imgur.com/TSnL29q.jpg

EHRLICHMAN: Hot pants.
NIXON: Jesus Christ.

Trump's appeal is so simple it almost defies analysis. He does raw resentment and self-aggrandizement for a constituency that can never get enough of either of those things. And he does it well, because both of those things come naturally to him. He doesn't have to fake either one. It doesn't matter whether he's a "real Republican," because that constituency only values Republicans to the extent that they can feed those psychic needs. (A generation ago, a lot of them were "Reagan Democrats," and they liked George Wallace before that.) Appeals to party or even really ideology are mostly beside the point -- it's about who can give the most prominent and heartfelt middle-finger to the forces of the modern world, whether those are immigrants, racial and sexual minorities, empowered women, Silicon Valley, China, Wall Street, Muslims, you name it.

This is basically the guy they want to vote for:

http://i01.i.aliimg.com/wsphoto/v0/32218655813/-font-b-Johnny-b-font-font-b-Cash-b-font-San-Quentin-Bird-Finger-Guitar.jpg

well hell, i'd vote for him

bad Bernie

http://www.truthdig.com/eartotheground/item/bernie_sanders_says_he_wouldnt_end_drone_program_20150831

Trump's appeal is so simple it almost defies analysis. He does raw resentment and self-aggrandizement for a constituency that can never get enough of either of those things. And he does it well, because both of those things come naturally to him. He doesn't have to fake either one. It doesn't matter whether he's a "real Republican," because that constituency only values Republicans to the extent that they can feed those psychic needs.

This is very otm

I thought it's well-established that "When will other GOP candidates go full-bore on Trump?" is the same question as "What is the last date you can register as an independent presidential candidate?" which is I think September next year?

Also I know quick news cycle, but we're kind of sleeping on the fact that one of the Bush fundraisers that quit was Kris Money - surely if anyone should have Prescott as a middle name..

Curious to see what kind of fuss Trump makes when he doesn't get the nomination, assuming he lasts that long. Will he simply go third party, or will he burn bridges and take everyone down with him? It's possible he will do the former and allow/encourage/sit back smiling and watch his followers (like Tea Party nuts completely disengaged from even the loosest libertarian ideology, instead stuck in full Fox News panicky wheelhouse mode) do the latter. Even nuts and losers like Cruz and Walker seem rooted in the real world, as implausible as their concerns and threats may be. But Trump is strictly surreal, which may be why he and his followers (on the street and in the polls) remain so inscrutable.

Perot was so long ago, in such a different world. I remember him pretty well (where's he gone to?) but for the life of me I don't remember what his fans were like. Crazy? Kooky? Reasonable but misaligned? The media landscape has changed so much in the past 25 years that I can't imagine what Ross Perot '16 would be like.

Tipsy's description is dead-on, but also true of Buchanan, Gingrich, and others--there's something going on with Trump above and beyond all that (maybe it's just all the fuck-you money that's attached).

More evidence that Trump's motivation might be very focused on Bush:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/01/politics/donald-trump-jeb-bush-gambling-casinos-florida/index.html

The remnants of Perot's Reform Party has run a presidential candidate every election since. Their vote totals:

2000 – Pat Buchanan and Ezola B. Foster - 449,225 votes
2004 – Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo - 463,655 votes
2008 – Ted Weill and Frank McEnulty - 481 votes
2012 – Andre Barnett and Ken Cross - 962 votes

Can't really remember much about his supporters.

I wonder what it takes to rattle Trump/get under his skin. The moment he loses composure or lets his image get punctured he's done.

Nate Silver had a piece on that (sort of--I think you mean more in a debate context) yesterday.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/a-ben-carson-surge-may-test-trump/

wouldn't have to be in a debate but yes I'm referring to a media-captured "moment" where his bluster fails him. where he's at a loss for words, or struggles to come up with an adequate comeback. like, what does it take to make Trump cry?

(I'm sure GOP operatives are currently wrestling with this very problem)

Binge-watching past seasons of the Apprentice.

I wonder what it takes to rattle Trump/get under his skin. The moment he loses composure or lets his image get punctured he's done.

Get horribly injured thru a bizarre yacht anchor-related accident and have his brain transferred into a large particularly unmarketable cartoon cat?

Ghost of Joseph Welch summoned to confront him: "Have you no sense of decency, Mr. Trump, at long last?"

Second Republican debate moderated by Rosie O'Donnell.

nah see he would love that

wouldn't have to be in a debate but yes I'm referring to a media-captured "moment" where his bluster fails him. where he's at a loss for words, or struggles to come up with an adequate comeback. like, what does it take to make Trump cry?

The trouble is that he's essentially a 12-year-old so if he doesn't have an adequate comeback he can just call whoever it is a loser and declare victory.

^ yeah, fair point.

xp I am probably giving people too much credit, but I'd hope there's a point where "He's really sticking it to 'em" can tip over for some into "Wow, he's an absolute asshole".

I don't think that tipping point exists with GOP primary voters. But they *will* reject him if he shows weakness, or shows contempt for them

Someone pointed out to me the other day that the Republicans have not won a presidential election without the name "Nixon" or "Bush" on it in some capacity since 1928. That's staggering.

It's the worst slate of presidential candidates in my life, across the board.

But I shouldn't be surprised.

― I'm writing in Dan Perry for President (dandydonweiner), Tuesday, September 1, 2015 3:25 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I wonder what it takes to rattle Trump/get under his skin. The moment he loses composure or lets his image get punctured he's done.

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, September 2, 2015 9:22 AM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

both otm

That's staggering.

not really - it's not that many election victories

It's 43%.

none of the standard GOP attacks have worked on Trump because they don't affect his delivery what his audience enjoys about him. he'll have to get tired and bored and fuck up on his own. what would a "gaffe" be in Trumpian terms? getting "serious" probably, which he'll have to do if he wants the big donors to open up.

i guess the q is whether he's at his ceiling and the rest of the field will have to winnow itself out and coalesce around someone, or whether people will get tired of it all of a sudden and the balloon will pop. (beutler piece is some grim shit)

it's really stunning how weak the early favorites have revealed themselves to be. as a liberal i'm a bad judge of affect on that side, but shit. rubio looks like a scared kid, walker like a one-note empty shell, rand just totally unable to think how to bridge the gap between his father's world and the mainstream, like he can't even think through it or hasn't considered how.

I know the numbers, it's 9 out of 21 elections total and throwing Nixon in there with his long career skews it to make it look like omg the GOP is controlled by these two dynasties which is not really accurate. My point is 9 is not a lot.

xxp

getting "serious" probably, which he'll have to do if he wants the big donors to open up.

this seems unlikely

unless you think he's bluffing about funding the whole campaign himself

no idea

xp I am probably giving people too much credit, but I'd hope there's a point where "He's really sticking it to 'em" can tip over for some into "Wow, he's an absolute asshole".

― Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, September 2, 2015 11:26 AM (31 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Well, he's already said McCain isn't a war hero because he got captured, and that those two bozos in Boston that beat up a homeless Hispanic man were "very passionate, they want America to be great again." I don't think that point exists.