a clown car full of millionaires: the 2016 presidential primary thread

disagree with frankenstein metaphor & idea that trump represents revival of far-right conservatism (though he certainly serves as vehicle/screen upon which some conservatives, far-right & not so far-right, project their feelings)

trump is an asshole who says many offensive things, but it's real stretch to say that he's 'far right' ideologically, in any coherent sense of the term

what he does have is fuck-you attitude, toward media & other politicians & rules of public political rhetoric, which is appealing to many conservatives angry with gop establishment (& maybe appealing to number of non-republicans as well, sick of 'politicians' in general)
so far he strikes me as very effective kind of troll-candidate

his resentments, impatience with government, reveling in Big Business approach to problems -- they code as far rightist.

That's why his rise doesn't surprise me. He's what the right has stoked since 1980.

Trump is a fascist in the Mussolini style, where political positions are much less relevant than xenophobia and belligerence.

https://twitter.com/JebBush/status/631194547649818624

Here's a no duh point but unless he exhumes Reagan and desecrates his remains, his stans like him only because he irritates their enemies. It's all pent up payback for 8 years of having a black man "shoved down their throats" (single entendre) who everyone they hated worshiped

Just as one of the BLM protestors in Seattle wears a t-shirt that reads "I bathe in white tears"

xp guess i demur on definition of far right
trump is ideologically vague & pretty unsubstantive policy-wise, cf comments on health care
his schtick is not ideological but more reality-tv-character: e.g. i'm a winner, i'm a rich businessman, i can solve problems
nb those qualities were if anything disadvantage for romney precisely among many of the conservatives trump is appealing to
bc romney was establishment gop & deployed measured political rhetoric
the key part of trump's schtick is the fuck-you & the specious impression that he cuts through political bullshit (instead of serving it)

fellow joyful tortoise wtf?

(insert mitch mcconnell joke here)

trump is ideologically vague & pretty unsubstantive policy-wise, cf comments on health care

like every GOP candidate in the last decade. They stoke inchoate rage.

tbh i don't think that was true of romney

or mccain for that matter (though mccain had palin)

certainly not to the angry people which constitute the flotsam and jetsam of the GOP.

I wrote a few days ago. The rise of Trump doesn't surprise me: I heard the same twaddle from my parents in 2008 when Huck won the Iowa caucus. "I can't vote for a religious fundamentalist!" Your choice, assholes. You've spent 30 years stoking these embers. Deal with it.

fellow joyful tortoise wtf?

"Slow and steady wins the race," I guess?

Same chance of being president?

tbh i don't think that was true of romney

― drash, Wednesday, August 12, 2015 12:33 AM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

or mccain for that matter (though mccain had palin)

― drash, Wednesday, August 12, 2015 12:35 AM (58 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

It really is fascinating how the Republican Party nominated those two guys back to back.

I remember thinking that when the ACA finally went through that surely Romney wouldn't be able to get around it.

You'll undoubtedly be able to add Bush to that list. They scream and hiss and put on a show, and then they nominate the guy they think will be most acceptable. (Actually, I think McCain's nomination wasn't nearly as noisy as the last two.)

https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtf1/v/t1.0-9/11062738_1044178932282043_8490996131360563060_n.jpg?oh=5da80ce05806074163d34e230ec835bc&oe=5641DA49

God to son: "Jesus, she called again?"

Trump is a fascist in the Mussolini style, where political positions are much less relevant than xenophobia and belligerence.

― Matt Armstrong, Tuesday, August 11, 2015 7:06 PM (3 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this feels accurate to me

I haven't read 538 site (relaunched after 2012, I think) at all the last four years. I'll try to make a point of checking it through to the election.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-winning-the-polls-and-losing-the-nomination-2/

re: Mussolini: yes, and also just the general idea that what we need is a strong guy who will cut through all the problems, but this kind of basically authoritarian appeal is well-rooted in American politics generally.

re: Frankenstein: FWIW I don't use this to refer to Trump, but to the Tea Party and general not-in-power, rage-filled, commenter-led GOP. Those people have always existed - in the 90s it was talk radio and black helicopters though maybe their role in the party was more marginal, with the religious-right types having much more prominent and mainstream microphones.

re: 538: I still check it regularly but tbh I think the quality has gone down a LOT since the relaunch. The non-Silver contributors aren't nearly as methodical and there's a lot more vaguely-substantiated pundit talk filtering through. Anecdotally I would say there's more paragraphs and fewer charts. I miss the seriously hardcore stat-nerdery.

could be also that 538's real bread-and-butter is elections and we're way too far out from the primaries to really have much that plays to their strengths, but there's pressure to produce share-worthy content and so they're kinda just ginning things up. a lot of "once again, here's the reasons why this trump thing doesn't deserve to have articles about it, such as this one."

yr dylan byers of the world of been trumpeting 'nate silver predicted trump wouldn't win the nomination - shows how much he knows lol!' for the past few weeks so silver has felt the need to both respond and double down on a pretty safe prediction.

espn's been shedding high priced talent and silver came in thru simmons so short of a huge bump in traffic and relevance i would imagine 538's days in its present form are numbered

Well, surely through statistical analysis he can show them that the bump in traffic and relevance should correspond with the real onset of primary season. I dunno about them keeping him on after the election's done, or at least not as a whole department. But I know fuck all about online publishing.

538 was much better when it was just Nate Silver but at some point you started to feel the workload was driving him mad

but some of the appeal of the site was the sweat involved, checking in on 538 knowing you were tuning into the mind frequency of a perspiring anxious genius as deep into considering statistics as anyone had ever been, reaching football-commentary-levels of mindless free correlation, you checked the site to see if obama was edging ahead but also to indulge a picture of a man under pressure working for you, coffee spilled on his notes food burned on the stove dog chewing through its leash girlfriend spurned & malcontent, you knew you were getting statistical analysis that came with the guarantee of a life sacrificed in the process

Bennett Miller is writing the script as we speak!

just don't let him make a movie about Silver's much more important baseball work

Well, he's already made that film, so...

not really

schlumpf, you left out the all-important wonkblogger burritos!

this is killin me https://vine.co/v/edrOxZUtAaa

nate silver is eating a wonkblogger burrito he is eating the napkins he is eating the foil

538 always seemed to get more prominence when it came to the general election, partially because until a couple caucuses/primaries are done it's kind of a shitshow
Iowa Electronic Markets doesn't even touch the primaries and they're in kind of a similar space, although from a market-based background rather than a sabermetrics one: http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres16.html

amazing vine ^^ xxxxp

bernie ahead of hillary in NH

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/08/biden-south-carolina-2016/401084/

Farther South, where relationships and warmth are prized, the feeling is markedly different. While Biden and Clinton are politically close, especially on domestic issues, it is Biden’s candor and loose campaign style that contrasts starkly to Clinton’s more scripted and calculated approach, Biden supporters argue.

“If he got in the race for the nomination my guess is he would win South Carolina,” said Richard Quinn, a Republican political consultant. “[ Clinton’s ] negatives, I’ve done polling on her, and her negatives in South Carolina are very, very high. [ Biden’s ] just a likeable guy. Everybody likes him. He’s personable and you don’t hear anybody say he’s a jerk.”

Quinn believes Clinton is her own worse enemy, as she continues to weather a succession of political storms. “I have learned over the years that voters have incredible intuition about a candidates veracity,” he said. “Some candidates are so good they can fake it. Bill Clinton was that good. She’s not that good.”

Oh yeah, the electorate? We're miiiiiighty smart.

lol 'voters have incredible intuition'

'but some people can fake it and fool voters'

intuition about who is the best faker

“If he got in the race for the nomination my guess is he would win South Carolina,” said Richard Quinn, a Republican political consultant.

oh stop it

polls have clinton over biden in south carolina, 67 to 10. i know it's early and they haven't done many polls there but

classic GOP ratfucking. Bill Kristol did it a couple months ago re Sanders

One of the bloggers I read calls that "Helpful Advice From Your Mortal Enemies."

if Nixon's Plumbers were around they'd be working overtime to get Sanders the nom.

lol @ "Biden supporters"

girlfriend spurned & malcontent

― tender is the late-night daypart (schlump), Wednesday, August 12, 2015 3:01 AM (9 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

not a girlfriend, probably, iirc