From [TBC] To The Polar Lands - Rolling Russia / "Near Abroad" News Thread

This report on the perceptions focus groups in various former Soviet republics have about the US is interesting. Some of the framing is questionable but the fundamental point that the US shouldn't be investing in NGOs that 'promote democracy' or direct political change if it wants to be seen in a positive light seems like a sensible one. The argument is that the US can do more good through other forms of soft power - cultural exchange, study abroad programmes, etc, which can help shape opinions and build civil society but don't come off as 'meddling' in the same way.

http://wilsonquarterly.com/quarterly/summer-2015-an-age-of-connectivity/what-18-focus-groups-in-former-ussr-taught-us-about-americas-pr-problems/

The supposedly 'last ditch' talks to agree a deal on Ukrainian debt restructuring have ended in failure.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-14/ukraine-creditors-say-talks-to-continue-on-debt-restructuring

They averted a crisis in July by coming up with $120m from somewhere but look fairly certain to default in September when another $500m is due unless they can find a way to get debt relief. Half the $19bn debt is held by private US companies and the second largest creditor is Russia - neither has any incentive to make life easier. With the economy contracting by 15% in the last quarter, there's no money to finance the loans. Ukraine has asked for a 40% haircut, the private US creditors have offered 5% - conditional on future economic performance. If the US and EU are really serious about bringing the country into the fold, there needs to be something akin to a new Marshall Plan but there doesn't seem to be any appetite for that at the moment.

There's plenty of belligerence in the US press though, with the Washington Post using an editorial to rail against the international proposal, largely backed by Poroshenko, for discussions around federalism as a solution to the military crisis:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/putting-ukraine-in-an-untenable-position/2015/08/08/db76bba6-3c5a-11e5-9c2d-ed991d848c48_story.html

Former Bush advisor Kristofer Harrison accusing John Conyers of being "Putin's man in Congress" for demanding that US aid to Ukraine be withheld from the Neo-Nazi Azov brigade:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kristofer-harrison/putins-man-in-congress_b_7957480.html

An aggressive PR defense would have been helpful when a couple of their soldiers allegedly sported swastika or SS patches, and it would have helped to counter Russia's smothering propaganda campaign aimed at convincing people that the Azov's emblem is a Nazi "Wolfsangel" (it's not, it an "N" and an "I" transposed over one another -- the resemblance is merely coincidental). As a result, they have some PR spade work to do. But let's be clear: We're talking about a unit at war, not a daycare. The Azov Battalion should not have to be responsible for defending itself against lies thrown over the transom from Moscow and repeated by irresponsible Members of Congress and reporters. Much of what little support the Obama administration has provided Ukraine is focused on integrating these volunteer units into Ukraine's National Guard. That is helping them regain some much needed legitimacy.

Heck of a coincidence:

http://i.imgur.com/ndsLgh3.jpg?1

I realise they need numbers but integrating Nazi idealogues is a very dangerous game. I bet some of these people are descendants of the genocidal trigger pullers of the 40's and proud of it.

Pretty much the only Ukrainian speakers eager to fight in the Donbas. The pre-2014 Ukrainian military was largly officered by ethnic Russians, and fell apart last March.

Not unlike the situation with the Iraqi military - the Sh'ia rank and file were there to collect paychecks, and only some Shia militia and their Iranian RG pals are willing to engage.

Russia continuing to make friends and influence people:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33986733

An Estonian border official has been jailed in Russia for 15 years on charges of espionage and gun-running. Estonia claims he is innocent and was not in Russian territory when he was seized - which would be a clear violation of international law.

The FSB might not be as scary as their Cheka/NKVD precedents, but they sure do seem to be slowly getting there.

If you believe a quarter of the rumours about what they were up to from the early 90s to the early Putin era, they're arguably a lot less scary now than they were back then, but it's very difficult to get a read on them. There has been a lot of talk this year about the FSB consolidating its behind-the-scenes power to jockey for influence against Kadyrov but i never get the impression anyone writing about this stuff in the West or in Russia really knows what's going on.

The crazy Night Wolves nationalist biker gang are putting on a show in Crimea and it looks like it has been art-directed by a combination of Laibach and the WWE Federation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XioHZPdCvU

In other weird Russian news, the country's widest man and a troupe of Cossacks have been going into supermarkets and destroying what they (incorrectly) believe to be sanctioned goods:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_1ZBmYNny8

Ukraine reached a deal with the private creditors for restructuring and more debt relief than was expected, so that's great news. The biggest risk of default now is the $3bn bond they have to pay back to Russia. Ukraine wants a 20% haircut on the not unreasonable grounds that they can't pay and Russia has annexed their peninsula, Russia isn't playing ball:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-27/forget-templeton-ukraine-still-has-putin-s-bond-to-contend-with

This clarifies things, kind of...

http://i.imgur.com/rafc4r8.png

In Chechnya, the deputy commander of of Kadyrov's Sever battalion has been murdered, along with his wife, and there's inevitable speculation it's part of the ongoing game between the FSB and Kadyrov's forces - not least because it happened six months to the day from the Nemtsov killing.

Interesting conversation between the excellent Maxim Eristavi and Jaresko on the IMF, bonds and future of the Ukrainian economy:

http://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-natalie-jaresko-debt-deal-russia-crimea-war-donetsk-hryvnia-inflation-crisis/

There's a brave face being put on it but heavy industry was a key part of the Ukrainian economy and the admission that a lot of it probably won't come back is big. The model seems to be Estonia - rapid cutting of spending and taxes to drive inward investment and a shift towards an IT and service economy. It's something that Russia and Ukraine have both failed to properly capitalise on - each trains more computer programmers than almost anywhere else but they tend to emigrate to higher-paying markets. I'm not sure that's going to be easy to change.

The Ukrainian parliament just voted to allow greater regional autonomy with a view to making rule from Kyiv less divisive in the regions. Svoboda / Pravyi Sektor clashed with police in protest, throwing a grenade at them. 100+ people are injured, some apparently seriously.

One member of the National Guard died in the grenade attack outside parliament, another lost a leg.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/31/blast-kiev-parliament-ukraine-mps-back-more-autonomy-for-rebels

The man who threw it has been provisionally identified as a member of Svoboda and the Sich militia. This is what a lot of people had feared - Kyiv is full of disgruntled nationalist ex-paramilitaries with nothing much to do since the fighting largely stopped.

Two more members of the National Guard who were defending the Rada died as a result of their injuries in the grenade attack.

Svoboda have called it a "pre-planned provocation" on the part of the government against "Ukrainian patriots" despite the fact that the guy filmed throwing the grenade appeared on their election campaign posters:

http://i.imgur.com/dpxfQaE.jpg?1

Pravii Sektor following the same unapologetic line:

"I say that today we saw that Poroshenko has shed this blood," Right Sector spokesman Artem Skoropadskiy told 112 Ukraine TV on August 31. "This is exactly the same thing that happened during the regime of Yanukovych -- the use of force, the violent dispersal of peaceful protests, beating the opposition, and so on."

Oleh Lyashko, the head of the Radical Party who were part of the ruling coalition and provided the Vice-Prime-Minister, has just echoed the Svoboda line and called the attack a provocation. They have now left the government and moved into opposition. Between the two of them, the Radical Party and Svoboda got about 13% of the vote at the election last year and i'd expect that might be higher now that the People's Front has gone from 22%+ to being so unpopular they aren't even bothering to stand in local elections.

Huge protests in Moldova over the bank fraud referred to upthread:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34174028

It's being talked up as another 'Maidan' situation in some sections of the press but the current government is broadly pro-EU and the two main Russia-aligned political parties are encouraging their supporters to join in. Like Electric Yerevan, it seems to cross partisan lines.

Ukraine has banned three BBC journalists, including Steve Rosenberg and Emma Wells, along with loads more from El Pais, Zeit and others from entering the country as a "threat to national security". Can't even imagine the rationale behind this.

They banned two of the three Spanish journalists who are currently being held captive by ISIS!

It's the day Belarusians gather together to tell Lukashenko how much they love him.

Seems like there's a good chance he might break the 80% barrier this time around.

http://i.imgur.com/AKrz984.jpg

it's true what they say - everybody looks good harvesting potatoes

84% with an 87% turnout!

If he can get the sanctions lifted and bring peace to Ukraine I see no reason he shouldn't be aiming for the full 100 next time.

My sister is leaving for Ukraine next week to work as an election observer (think she's working for OSCE this time). Expecting some good emails ahead....

Which part of the country?

Not sure yet.

Former Moldovan PM Vlad Filat, leader of the pro-EU Liberal Democratic party, was taken away from Parliament in handcuffs yesterday in relation to the ongoing $1bn fraud investigation.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/15/us-moldova-protests-filat-idUSKCN0S91BY20151015

Plenty of local colour in the UKrainian elections:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/21/ukraine-elections-dirty-tricks

“We need to create Mossad-style special operative groups to enter Russia and kidnap Yanukovych and his associates, and bring them back to face trial,” said Korban, a businessman, who is barely 5ft and speaks in whispers

Five policemen trying to handcuff Chewbacca:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQ6yF1N4JLY&feature=youtu.be

The ongoing process of decentralising the government means the local politicians will have more power than ever before, so the local elections are getting a) more important and b) dirtier, with the oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky leading on the latter.

Another oligarch, Rinat Akhmetov, is the key figure behind the cancellation of the vote in Mariupol, the second biggest city in Donetsk oblast. For some bizarre reason, the ballot papers were being printed at a company he owns (though having said that he may own most of the companies) and Poroshenko has cancelled the whole election on the belief that too many ballots were being printed to enable fraud.

The hawkish PM Yatseniuk, whose party got 22% in the general election last year, decided not to put up any candidates this time as they've slumped to about 2%.

http://tinyurl.com/pss24xz

Good update on the Ukrainian election, though votes still being counted:

http://www.politico.eu/article/petro-poroshenko-hobbles-on-ukraine-local-election-vote-rigging/

The short version is that everyone lost. None of the major parties put in a good showing and a lot of big cities, including Kharkiv, Odessa and Dniepropetrovsk (the second, third and fourth largest in the country) either went with ex-Yanukovich men or Kolomoisky's pick, if initial results are right. Klitchko, running for Poroshenko's bloc, seems to have taken Kyiv though.

Kramatorsk, which was on the front line of fighting, stuck with Yanukovich allies.

There is some brilliant stuff in the new Snyder book Black Earth about how in double occupied Soviet zones people became compliant in murder for both the Nazi/Soviet regimes, even triple collaborators in some cases. Also stuff about members of the Polish Home Army who fought partisan warfare against the Nazis and were either shot or shipped off to Lubyanka as "Facists" by the Soviets in the post war years. Ukranians that initially were shooting Jews into death pits in '42 being recruited to swap sides, revelatory to me type stuff anyway.

It looks interesting but seems to have been quite controversial - though I don't know much of that is a hangover from Snyder's recent foray into contemporary political commentary.

I trust him but admittedly am not the most nuanced judge of historians, but for better or worse he has changed the way I look at 20th century Eastern European history and the holocaust and I think he is a great writer.

This David Bell piece highlights some of the main concerns with his work - particularly the apparent effort to shift blame onto ex-Communists rather than non-Communist Poles and Ukrainians and the broader sense that the Holocaust was a reaction to the Soviet Union rather than something that sprang from German society and European anti-semitism. idk, i'm not an expert. I might pinch Black Earth from the office if i see it around.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/history%E2%80%99s-black-hole-the-holocaust-eastern-europe-13645

He's one of the worst commentators on contemporary CEU politics but has a better rep in his day job.

Jesus, a Kogalymavia plane with 200 tourists on board has reportedly crashed after taking off from Sharm el Sheikh on route to St Petersburg.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34687139

Hennady Korban, the five foot tall ' businessman' who was speculating about sending a Mossad style squad into Russia to get Yanukovich upthread has just been arrested, either for embezzlement or for running a private army (!). Nobody seems sure.

http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1446335891

He's obviously a crook but there is concern that the arrest is political. He is the leader of UKROP, Kolomoisky's party and a thorn in the side of Poroshenko. It is a tough position as these guys are a genuine threat to government security but any attepts to squash them are going to read as partisan politics.

Hard not to feel sorry for Poroshenko in these situations.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/05/ukraine-visa-free-european-travel-anti-gay-law

The EU had effectively promised visa free travel to all Ukrainians, which would be an unbelievably huge deal for tourists and business, if the Rada passed legislation stopping workplace discrimination again gay people. 75% of MPs refused.

One apparently capped the day by bottling another MP, a 62 year old woman, inside the debating chamber. She's now in hospital with concussion.

I am considering spending a tenner on Anna Bikont's The Crime and The Silence, mainly on the strength of the first few paragraphs of the NYRB review (until I hit the paywall) and it seems to be getting a lot of good reviews elsewhere. It is an account the Jedwabne massacre that has only just now been translated into English 11 years after the Polish edition.

Looks like Russia might be suspended from the 2016 Olympics over doping.

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/14918/production/_86584248_86584195.jpg
"Pyotr Pavlensky set the door of the Lubyanka building alight and was pictured standing in front of the blaze holding a petrol can."
That is just taking the piss! I could imagine decades later it will be revealed that this was his first stunt after the FSB recruited him.

It's interesting as he's quite well regarded by the state-sponsored art sector. I went to an exhibition of his stuff at the Tretyakov gallery about two years ago, which might not happen again for a while.

Poland looks set to appoint as Minister of Defence a guy who thinks Russia deliberately caused the 2010 plane crash that killed the President along with lots of other senior Polish officials.

http://news.yahoo.com/polands-pm-waiting-taps-controversial-defence-minister-183353053.html

Even more fun, he also believes Donald Tusk, PM at the time and current EU President, is an undercover agent and was in on it.

http://carnegie.ru/2015/10/29/silence-of-cis-russia-s-neighbors-and-syria-crisis/ikmb

I'd take that with a pinch of salt. The US has very pointedly just congratulated Kazakhstan on its 550th anniversary after comments from Putin that were interpreted as implying that it didn't have a pre-Soviet history of statehood but relations between the countries seem relatively good on the whole, with the biggest problem being the ongoing economic crisis. There hasn't been any public division over Syria and a couple of the leaders, particularly Rahmon are fanatically opposed to ISIS to a degree that makes Putin look mild. Public cheerleading for the bombing in countries already leaking fighters to ISIS and Al-Nusra is probably nagl though.

Thoughts on http://www.interpretermag.com/moscow-seen-laying-groundwork-to-annex-belarus-open-second-front-against-ukraine-next-year/ ?

That's embarrassing. It's worth remembering that The Interpreter is a project run by Pavel Khodorkovsky and funded by his father. Most Russian journalists, even those who are actively anti-government, won't touch it.

Lukashenko appears to be normalising relations with Europe (political prisoners released, playing peacemaker in Ukraine, getting sanctions lifted) rather than moving in the other direction. There doesn't seem much appetite for deepening hostilities in Ukraine at the moment, let alone annexing other countries to make it easier.

Pavlensky is going admirably all-in with this and demanding that the charges against him be changed from vandalism to terrorism:

http://calvertjournal.com/news/show/4971/russian-art-activist-pyotr-pavlensky-asks-to-face-terrorism-charges

The objective seems to be highlighting the Sentsov case where a Ukrainian film director was convicted of terrorist offences in Crimea on the basis of very shaky evidence.

Dmytro Yarosh has resigned as leader of Pravii Sektor. The rationale is a little unclear but there's speculation that there are splits in the organisation and his authority had been fatally undermined. Some of the analysis following his resignation has suggested that he is too 'moderate' for the hardline wing of the party, which is worrying.

It turns out the new Polish Defence Minister doesn't believe that the Protocols of the Elders of Zion are real but he also doesn't *not* believe that they're real.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/10/polish-defence-minister-condemned-over-jewish-conspiracy-theory

What a difference a week can make.

Putin seems to have acknowledged that the plane was bombed, Cameron and Putin have both suggested they work together to fight ISIS and the US and Russia are apparently "closer" on agreeing a plan of action for a political settlement in Syria. Putin and Obama had both said they wouldn't meet each other at the G20 summit but had a "productive" chat over coffee (as seen in this great gif):

http://gfycat.com/ReflectingLargeFurseal

Putin has also said that he'll offer Ukraine full debt restructuring which will enable them to avoid default and take the current round of IMF funding. Rather than paying $3bn before the end of this year, they will pay $1bn per year in 2016 - 2018.

what is going on there? that is my favorite recent gif

is that guy supposed to be getting a secret scoop about the coffee meeting?

That's what it looks like. I love his attempt to sidle backwards inconspicuously.

the bag helps add to the effect