Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

one throwaway line? tbh he's not wrong. the international left (in which judith butler included hamas + hezbollah) is pretty fucking stupid.

btw he often tees off on Israel too but it doesn't hurt /my/ feelings

a lot of interesting analysis of IS here:
http://pomeps.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/POMEPS_Studies_15_Islam_Web.pdf

among other topics

+ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/07/22/contesting-the-caliphate/?postshare=8041438206676132

TY for all the post-paywall War Nerd unlocks in this thread, Mordy (amazed they work in China tbh).

War Nerd says "western leftists" don't care about the Kurds and offer "guarded silence", then how does War Nerd explain this article in The Nation

http://www.thenation.com/article/are-leftist-feminist-kurds-about-to-deliver-the-coup-de-grace-to-isil-in-syria/

It is nonsense. There is huge admiration for the YPG and Kurdish political groups in Turkey.

Admiration from Western leftists that is.

(wdn't take those comments re western leftists too seriously; seem more part of schtick, cf also comments re redstaters & u.s. bombing mexico. not sure what he means re reasons for leftists’ nervousness/ guardedness re kurds; my guess is to do with iraq war)

turkish behavior here v disturbing; interesting as more comes to light. clearly dark machiavellian stuff going on in relations/collusion with isis, & opportunistic cover for bombing pkk

still unclear to what extent turkey gov’t feels things ‘out of control’ w/r/t isis; not sure how far to believe whistleblower article suggesting reichstag-fire stuff (though wd not be surprised)

which reminds me. someone i know lived in turkey in expatriate community for some years in the 50s, told me story of witnessing these mob riots, lootings killing rapes of greeks & armenians (from parapet on a hill, saw the fires, heard the screams, marked him for life): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Istanbul_pogrom
set off by false flag bombing of ataturk mausoleum

thx for link to articles on isis, which i just started, v interesting

It is part of a schtick but Brecher is often better than that. I'd assume the point is that pressure from "the left" to not intervene has limited the amount of military support the US / Europe have given to the YPG but given the complexity of the situation and the wider reluctance to get entangled in the region in a more extensive way, it seems wide of the mark to lay it at the door of the left in particular or link it to any special antipathy towards the Kurdish movement in general. As Brecher knows and has pointed out in the past, there are "western leftists" from Germany, France, the UK, etc, fighting and dying alongside the YPG.

The whole piece is thin, tbh. The "evidence" of collusion at the moment amounts to allegations made on an anonymous Twitter account and equally anonymous 'insider information' from an intelligence source on documents allegedly found among an ISIS oil smuggler's possessions.

There's clearly a level of complicity in allowing ISIS to operate as an economic entity, as well as a military one, and turning a blind eye to people going across the border to fight, though. The plan of setting the two threats to Turkey's territorial integrity against each other and letting them get on with it looks clear enough, though the new position of letting the US operate bombing raids from bases within Turkey does seem to mark a shift.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/when-religious-freedom-should-take-a-back-seat-to-equality-rights/article25784108/

gender segregation case at porter airlines flight

i feel so sick about the killing this morning in the WB. the graffiti on the wall suggests that it was done by Chabad fundamentalists which just makes me feel sicker. it's such a desecration of G-d's name and i believe that the Rebbe, were he still alive, would have been outraged. i hope the sick fucks responsible die painfully.

ortho's been making israel look like shit this week

yeah this and the parade stabbing

i don't even understand why these people think this is okay. are they just ignoramuses? i guess i shouldn't be surprised since they've cut down olive trees in the past which goes against an explicit verse in the Torah, but there is no permission in any Jewish texts anywhere to burn down a Mosque. i've mentioned this before but the Rambam held that a Jew can visit a Mosque because they worship the same G-d that the Jews do!!! these fucking assholes.

from what I understand they're pretty unpopular in israel too, what with the not joining the IDF. so glad bibi needs the political parties for his coalition tho. kiu bibby

i don't even understand why these people think this is okay

really?

Yes they are religious fundamentalists who apparently don't know shit about their religion

what a surprise

this is a community whose islamophobia and racism has been nurtured and exploited by the state for decades now, they have a material and cultural interest in driving out Muslims/Palestinians, I don't see why it's so hard to believe that theological/moral concerns might take a backseat.

I can't think of any fundamentalist sect that doesn't cherrypick from the history of their religion to suit other, more earthbound aims

xp

looking forward to the inevitable retaliatory attacks *sigh*

jesus the amount of just vitriolic jew hatred on fb sigh

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33750803?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

Two Turkish soldiers killed and 31 injured in an apparent PKK suicide bombing.

this is just going to get worse & worse, isn’t it

There has been no comment from the PKK so far.

AFP news agency said it would be the first time the group was accused of deploying a suicide bomber during recent clashes.

hmm

i take turkish military's word for it, provisionally (especially since pkk took credit for earlier attack). but can’t help thinking that ultimately, cui bono = isis, & indirectly erdogan gov't itself (giving turkey more reason/justification to attack kurds)

in any case, according to patrick cockburn,
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/turkeykurdish-conflict-obamas-deal-with-ankara-is-a-betrayal-of-syrian-kurds-and-may-not-even-weaken-isis-10432524.html

The PKK has used suicide bombings fairly frequently in the past so it's not inherently suspicious. There are limited options for conducting attacks against police and military bases.

It was interesting to see Barazani ask them to leave Iraqi Kurdistan yesterday. There's a huge amount of self-protection there but it's also clear that there are complex relationships between the Kurdish groups.

*Barzani*

yes that was interesting
(& instructive, knew v little about their interrelations & variations in relations with turkey)
helpful schematic from yr linked bbc article (also encapsulates strangeness of situation)
http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/D8F6/production/_84524555_kurd_groups_turk_govt_624in.png

anyone have a better source for this than nypost?
http://nypost.com/2015/08/01/iran-publishes-book-on-how-to-outwit-us-and-destroy-israel/

according to saudi prince bandar,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/07/16/saudi-prince-bandar-says-iran-nuke-deal-worse-than-failed-north-korea-deal/

Mark Wallace from United Against Nuclear Iran is interviewed by vox and explains how a better deal could have been made: Threatening sanctions against countries like Germany if they didn't support American hardline strategy.

Iran never viewed China and Russia as key trading partners. I think European trade is the more relevant question. There was always seepage from China and Russia. The bigger question is Europe. Even at the height of sanctions, German companies engaged in significant business in Europe. Germany had about $3.6 billion worth of trade, Italy had some trade with Iran.

But the global financial system — for better or worse, but I think for better — flows through the United States, specifically New York. The lesson of 2008 was that if you are an international company and need to do business, you pretty much have to touch our financial system.

Meaning that you if you did business with the country that is a number-one sponsor of terror and engaging in mischief in the region in the world, then we can say, as not only a military superpower but as an economic superpower, "If you do business, we think you shouldn't be able to do business in the US and shouldn't be able to access US capital markets." That's a very powerful statement.

No compliance officer, no risk officer, no corporate official in any international conglomerate would have risked the reputational dangers and the risks to investments of going back into Iran if the US says we're not on board with this.

http://www.vox.com/2015/8/17/9164669/uani-iran-nuclear-deal

That is absolutely fucking insane.

Aiui he's saying the prohibition on trade would apply at a corporate level, not a national one. So if Daimler wanted to trade with Iran it could, but it couldn't trade with the U.S. It wouldn't apply uniformly to all German companies. He's probably right in saying it would lead to most companies pulling out of Iran. The reasons I can't work with Iranian companies predate the current EU sanctions and relate back to some of the kind of indirect banking and corporate governance pressure he's hinting at. It's a stupid, unworkable and possibly illegal policy but I'm not sure it wouldn't be beyond the realms of the imagination of some Republicans.

I for one welcome this brave new world where America threatens every nation state on the planet

This is what has become of the rule of law. Two sets of books. One for Us, and one to throw at Them. Apartheid.

http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/a-special-place-in-hell/.premium-1.671538

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/a9f4e40803924a8ab4c61cb65b2b2bb3/ap-exclusive-un-let-iran-inspect-alleged-nuke-work-site

whatever; politically (despite appearances) it's a done deal

https://twitter.com/wbenjaminson/status/634374928435970048

AP had apparently run out of the pixels required to report the story accurately.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/19/making-a-state-by-iron-and-blood-isis-iraq-syria/

Yeah, let's see how that one goes ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syria-says-islamic-state-militants-beheaded-a-noted-archaeologist/2015/08/19/c0b1b664-4672-11e5-9f53-d1e3ddfd0cda_story.html?hpid=z4

ISIS have claimed responsibility for the bomb in Cairo that killed 29 today.

Looks like the PKK killed 8 Turkish soldiers in an attack in Siirt.

Wounded 29 rather than killed - thankfully.

I saw my boy Huckabee was paying respect to the Senator of America's 51st state recently

http://media.breitbart.com/media/2015/08/Huckabee-Netanyahu-640x480.jpg

fp article is v depressing
historical gist of it obv true (duh), yet sthing facile, glib about drawing of analogies & inferences therefrom; want to argue with it but not sure from what angle
anyway can’t deny so far isis seems effectively on its way to consolidating sthing like a state, and effort to counter it so far seems pathetically ineffective

wp article horrible & depressing too
this recent nytimes article is harrowing: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/14/world/middleeast/isis-enshrines-a-theology-of-rape.html

http://assets.bwbx.io/images/i7Iws5wJJLLs/v4/-1x-1.jpg

noah feldman on some effects of iran deal on regional & iraqi politics, abadi’s strategic game plan
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-19/iran-deal-is-shaping-the-iraq-war

There are moments in that report where a divided Iraq almost sounds like a good thing. As if the only thing keeping Iraq together as a unified state was US fear of Iran. Don't know if that's true. But how many in Iraq would be sad if the country was divided between Iran, Syria and a new Kurdistan state? I mean, in a (very hypothetical...) future where two of those countries aren't authoritarian/failed states.

Yeah, no, it would be like Yugoslavia, the ethnic cleansing would just intensify, wouldn't it? Sigh.

^my train of thought on the matter v much like yours

btw don’t see what relevant facts were omitted from original ap article?, other than emphasis/clarification that side deal is restricted to parchin (that was clear to me), politicians’ statements & officials’ assurances

in my not at all expert & thus worthless opinion, this seems not well negotiated deal (the way it was negotiated, as reflected in admin’s public pronouncements during the negotiation, to sell it domestically, never made sense to me, like failing negotiation 101)

that 'deal' is necessarily better than 'no deal' (& that it's inescapable choice between 'deal' or else 'war') is & has been v loaded way to frame argument for this particular deal

imo there’s been/ is def some bad demagoguery & sophistry from both sides, selling & opposing deal
(in fact much of my skepticism due to some arguments used to sell/defend it, & discredit critics out of hand, rather than arguments criticizing/opposing)

now that deal has been struck, harder to see alternative moving forward; and of course whole thing now mostly just political/partisan circus

historical deal to be judged by history, i guess (though of course, relative to what counterfactuals? alternative possibilities ultimately unknowable)

I hate linking to Vox and even more so to Max Fisher but this seems like a comprehensive outline of the issues with the original piece:

http://www.vox.com/2015/8/20/9182185/ap-iran-inspections-parchin