Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/turkish-jets-strike-kurds-iraq-complicating-anti-isis-fight-n398276

i'm still very skeptical of any pollard release stories (for the good reason of them being plentiful over my lifetime and simultaneously never true). i've never been particularly attached to his release, though my parents are, and i wonder if it's a generational thing (i was only 3yo in 1987 when he was sentenced). if it is true, i think it's neat that the Algemeiner Journal (the first newspaper i ever worked for back when i was 20yo) broke it an entire week before the WSJ: http://www.algemeiner.com/2015/07/17/source-jonathan-pollard-likely-to-be-released-later-this-year/

what the hell is wrong with turkey? xp like i understand why they're afraid of kurdish unity but who the hell enters a war explicitly announced against one side and then uses it as an opportunity to bomb the hell out of the other side? and from the description it doesn't sound like it was an accident or fog of war: "The jets hit PKK shelters, bunkers, caves, storages facilities and other "logistical points," a statement from the Turkish prime minister's office said. It said areas targeted included the Qandil mountains, where the PKK's command is based."

(further reading suggests it's retaliation for a PKK attack a few days ago but still so transparently opportunistic and self-defeating)

I imagine it's designed to send a message that Turkey won't accept either side bringing the war within its own borders. ISIS gets hit for the bombing, the PKK gets hit for murdering two Turkish police officers they suspected of being sympathisers. Turkey's attempts at playing a strategic game with both sides have failed and there's a significant risk of it spilling over domestically now.

wtf
diff states (supposedly in coalition?) bombing willy-nilly in ME (iraq, syria) lately

"us-led war" :/

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/26/isis-syria-turkey-us

In the wake of the raid that killed Abu Sayyaf, suspicions of an undeclared alliance have hardened. One senior western official familiar with the intelligence gathered at the slain leader’s compound said that direct dealings between Turkish officials and ranking Isis members was now “undeniable”.

“There are hundreds of flash drives and documents that were seized there,” the official told the Observer. “They are being analysed at the moment, but the links are already so clear that they could end up having profound policy implications for the relationship between us and Ankara.”

Turkey calls Nato talks on IS and PKK

The US has called on both Turkey and the PKK to avoid violence, but said Turkey had the right to defend itself against attacks by Kurdish rebels.

http://www.blazingcatfur.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ISIS-How-to-survive-in-the-west.pdf

crazy that this pollard thing is ending. it feels like it has been going on my entire life (and since i was born in 1984, it mostly has):
http://www.wsj.com/articles/israeli-spy-pollard-will-be-released-in-november-lawyers-say-1438104728

turkeys moves have been deeply cynical to me.. they've been ignoring alot of whats going on down south, but seem to be acting now to exploit a suicide bombing as cover to blow up the pkk and gin up nationalism for a quick election to get erdogan's party back to a strong position after they got humiliated in the last one

can someone explain to me how "life in prison" and "mandatory parole" are not mutually exclusive

yes:

CBS says: "His release is scheduled for November 20, 30 years after he was arrested for selling classified information to Israel. He will eligible for mandatory parole at that point. At the Aspen Security forum over the weekend, Attorney General Loretta Lynch said that Pollard received a life sentence 30 years ago, but the law at the time provided for mandatory parole after 30 years absent any other violations. 'He is one of the few that is still a prisoner under the older set of sentencing laws,' Lynch said. 'A life sentence now is in fact a life sentence.'"

huh

thx

A life sentence in most other western countries is way less than life. It's like 14 years in Denmark, iirc.

p short life expectancy you guys have over there

it is so inhumane to keep someone in prison for life. honestly 30 years is too much for anyone but the most unrepentant serial killer. we're such a punitive nation.

Honestly, I don't mind when sociopaths are sequestered from general society permanently. This 2-3% of the population, who are physically incapable of empathy or remorse, take far more from society than they give, even and especially when (by virtue of their insensitivity) find themselves in authority positions. And there's no effective treatment - it appears to be neurologically "fixed" during development. There may have been a selective advantage to a few sociopaths in one's clan during the constant warfare of the prehistoric state, but that utility is pretty well lost these days.

They don't represent all, or even the majority, of convicted criminals. Plenty of non-sociopaths commit crimes when provoked by financial or emotional duress. Ideally, parole boards would employ psychologists well skilled in distinguishing the two populations.

I think that's all otm

link expires in 47 hours:
https://pando.com/2015/07/29/war-nerd-dont-be-fooled-its-kurds-turkey-attacking/a8b5908c51cc1d2dc240de4084ef8a37e9b23d13/

linked from that piece in case u really want to get yr blood boiling:
http://www.todayszaman.com/national_govt-whistleblower-says-recent-attacks-in-suruc-kilis-were-plots_394787.html

+ http://www.businessinsider.com.au/links-between-turkey-and-isis-are-now-undeniable-2015-7

Your pal War Nerd always has to throw in his cliched criticisms of "leftists" into everything he writes. ZZZZZZZZZZZzz

one throwaway line? tbh he's not wrong. the international left (in which judith butler included hamas + hezbollah) is pretty fucking stupid.

btw he often tees off on Israel too but it doesn't hurt /my/ feelings

a lot of interesting analysis of IS here:
http://pomeps.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/POMEPS_Studies_15_Islam_Web.pdf

among other topics

+ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/07/22/contesting-the-caliphate/?postshare=8041438206676132

TY for all the post-paywall War Nerd unlocks in this thread, Mordy (amazed they work in China tbh).

War Nerd says "western leftists" don't care about the Kurds and offer "guarded silence", then how does War Nerd explain this article in The Nation

http://www.thenation.com/article/are-leftist-feminist-kurds-about-to-deliver-the-coup-de-grace-to-isil-in-syria/

It is nonsense. There is huge admiration for the YPG and Kurdish political groups in Turkey.

Admiration from Western leftists that is.

(wdn't take those comments re western leftists too seriously; seem more part of schtick, cf also comments re redstaters & u.s. bombing mexico. not sure what he means re reasons for leftists’ nervousness/ guardedness re kurds; my guess is to do with iraq war)

turkish behavior here v disturbing; interesting as more comes to light. clearly dark machiavellian stuff going on in relations/collusion with isis, & opportunistic cover for bombing pkk

still unclear to what extent turkey gov’t feels things ‘out of control’ w/r/t isis; not sure how far to believe whistleblower article suggesting reichstag-fire stuff (though wd not be surprised)

which reminds me. someone i know lived in turkey in expatriate community for some years in the 50s, told me story of witnessing these mob riots, lootings killing rapes of greeks & armenians (from parapet on a hill, saw the fires, heard the screams, marked him for life): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Istanbul_pogrom
set off by false flag bombing of ataturk mausoleum

thx for link to articles on isis, which i just started, v interesting

It is part of a schtick but Brecher is often better than that. I'd assume the point is that pressure from "the left" to not intervene has limited the amount of military support the US / Europe have given to the YPG but given the complexity of the situation and the wider reluctance to get entangled in the region in a more extensive way, it seems wide of the mark to lay it at the door of the left in particular or link it to any special antipathy towards the Kurdish movement in general. As Brecher knows and has pointed out in the past, there are "western leftists" from Germany, France, the UK, etc, fighting and dying alongside the YPG.

The whole piece is thin, tbh. The "evidence" of collusion at the moment amounts to allegations made on an anonymous Twitter account and equally anonymous 'insider information' from an intelligence source on documents allegedly found among an ISIS oil smuggler's possessions.

There's clearly a level of complicity in allowing ISIS to operate as an economic entity, as well as a military one, and turning a blind eye to people going across the border to fight, though. The plan of setting the two threats to Turkey's territorial integrity against each other and letting them get on with it looks clear enough, though the new position of letting the US operate bombing raids from bases within Turkey does seem to mark a shift.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/when-religious-freedom-should-take-a-back-seat-to-equality-rights/article25784108/

gender segregation case at porter airlines flight

i feel so sick about the killing this morning in the WB. the graffiti on the wall suggests that it was done by Chabad fundamentalists which just makes me feel sicker. it's such a desecration of G-d's name and i believe that the Rebbe, were he still alive, would have been outraged. i hope the sick fucks responsible die painfully.

ortho's been making israel look like shit this week

yeah this and the parade stabbing

i don't even understand why these people think this is okay. are they just ignoramuses? i guess i shouldn't be surprised since they've cut down olive trees in the past which goes against an explicit verse in the Torah, but there is no permission in any Jewish texts anywhere to burn down a Mosque. i've mentioned this before but the Rambam held that a Jew can visit a Mosque because they worship the same G-d that the Jews do!!! these fucking assholes.

from what I understand they're pretty unpopular in israel too, what with the not joining the IDF. so glad bibi needs the political parties for his coalition tho. kiu bibby

i don't even understand why these people think this is okay

really?

Yes they are religious fundamentalists who apparently don't know shit about their religion

what a surprise

this is a community whose islamophobia and racism has been nurtured and exploited by the state for decades now, they have a material and cultural interest in driving out Muslims/Palestinians, I don't see why it's so hard to believe that theological/moral concerns might take a backseat.

I can't think of any fundamentalist sect that doesn't cherrypick from the history of their religion to suit other, more earthbound aims

xp

looking forward to the inevitable retaliatory attacks *sigh*

jesus the amount of just vitriolic jew hatred on fb sigh

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33750803?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

Two Turkish soldiers killed and 31 injured in an apparent PKK suicide bombing.

this is just going to get worse & worse, isn’t it

There has been no comment from the PKK so far.

AFP news agency said it would be the first time the group was accused of deploying a suicide bomber during recent clashes.

hmm

i take turkish military's word for it, provisionally (especially since pkk took credit for earlier attack). but can’t help thinking that ultimately, cui bono = isis, & indirectly erdogan gov't itself (giving turkey more reason/justification to attack kurds)

in any case, according to patrick cockburn,
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/turkeykurdish-conflict-obamas-deal-with-ankara-is-a-betrayal-of-syrian-kurds-and-may-not-even-weaken-isis-10432524.html

The PKK has used suicide bombings fairly frequently in the past so it's not inherently suspicious. There are limited options for conducting attacks against police and military bases.

It was interesting to see Barazani ask them to leave Iraqi Kurdistan yesterday. There's a huge amount of self-protection there but it's also clear that there are complex relationships between the Kurdish groups.