Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

http://europe.newsweek.com/us-reportedly-offer-israel-unprecedented-arms-deal-330550?ref=yfp < bibi better take this deal if he knows what's good for him

tom: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Satan#Lesser_Satan xp

Ah, the UK, typically, sometimes sees itself as Little Satan, let's face it they hated the UK long before they hated the US.

I think nakh might attribute that to the UK's ongoing struggle to reconcile itself to non power status :p

"We are Satan too!"

Undoubtedly. More like, hey, don't forge us, we used to be Satan!

forget even

Have you heard of My Uncle Napoleon?

no - i haven't! i'll check it out. looks like fun

v interesting guy > http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/192329/the-most-dangerous-man-in-iran

yes, v interesting. hope he's omen of future iran

strange to hear this said so plainly (by anyone, in iran or the west):

”The reason that the West is nervous and opposes our nuclear program is because Iran has stated very precisely and officially that Iran is going to destroy the state of Israel. Therefore the Israelis—as well as everyone else—can be worried about this country becoming engaged in uranium enrichment. That’s why the United States, Israel, and Europe are against our nuclear program. If we had not stated that we are going to destroy the state of Israel, none of this would happen.”

in the end, though, that statement/ rhetoric not v relevant (or not much of a hindrance) to the deal
& of course opposition to nuclear program not just about that statement/ rhetoric; other geopolitical factors

wd like to feel more of his optimism re positive influence of deal (e.g. moderating/diversifying influence on iranian politics)
not too hopeful yet hoping
might dilute iran gov’t’s anti-americanism (though that by itself doesn’t mean much; anyway, u.s. relevance/influence now decreased, for good or ill)
but i don’t see it affecting anti-israel policy (not in near term anyway)

then there’s effects on ME balance of power, regional instability, & weapons proliferation
(& call me cynical, but it’s obv to me there will be cheating & ineffective oversight, as always)
maybe was no (or not much) better alternative to this gamble, but can’t help seeing downsides here (not just in final terms of deal & consequences, but how the negotiation was conducted & precedents it set)
hope downside outweighed (if not by upside at least) by less downside
guess we’ll see how things shake out, in the never not fucked-up balance of history

here’s a conversation with 3 diff perspectives on deal
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/iran-nuclear-deal-goldberg-frum-beinart/398816/

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-preparing-to-release-convicted-israeli-spy-jonathan-pollard-officials-say-1437766957

http://newsoffice.mit.edu/2015/us-iran-nuclear-deal-0724

u-s-preparing-to-release-convicted-israeli-spy-jonathan-pollard-officials-say

lol such an obv move (kind of embarrassingly so tbh)

newsoffice.mit.edu/2015/us-iran-nuclear-deal

thx for link with those perspectives
i’ve read positive assessments of deal, those are especially glowing
they are experts, so it’s likely they are correct & my skepticism is unwarranted
(anyway, hope so)
(still skeptical)

lol such an obv move (kind of embarrassingly so tbh)

Dude was sentenced to life, gets released after 30 years. Will this "goodwill" have much political benefit for the US? I doubt it

doubt it too
but clearly admin decided there was need right now for this (all too transparent) move vis-a-vis israel
political reasons not just international but domestic maybe
not against it, just saying

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/turkish-jets-strike-kurds-iraq-complicating-anti-isis-fight-n398276

i'm still very skeptical of any pollard release stories (for the good reason of them being plentiful over my lifetime and simultaneously never true). i've never been particularly attached to his release, though my parents are, and i wonder if it's a generational thing (i was only 3yo in 1987 when he was sentenced). if it is true, i think it's neat that the Algemeiner Journal (the first newspaper i ever worked for back when i was 20yo) broke it an entire week before the WSJ: http://www.algemeiner.com/2015/07/17/source-jonathan-pollard-likely-to-be-released-later-this-year/

what the hell is wrong with turkey? xp like i understand why they're afraid of kurdish unity but who the hell enters a war explicitly announced against one side and then uses it as an opportunity to bomb the hell out of the other side? and from the description it doesn't sound like it was an accident or fog of war: "The jets hit PKK shelters, bunkers, caves, storages facilities and other "logistical points," a statement from the Turkish prime minister's office said. It said areas targeted included the Qandil mountains, where the PKK's command is based."

(further reading suggests it's retaliation for a PKK attack a few days ago but still so transparently opportunistic and self-defeating)

I imagine it's designed to send a message that Turkey won't accept either side bringing the war within its own borders. ISIS gets hit for the bombing, the PKK gets hit for murdering two Turkish police officers they suspected of being sympathisers. Turkey's attempts at playing a strategic game with both sides have failed and there's a significant risk of it spilling over domestically now.

wtf
diff states (supposedly in coalition?) bombing willy-nilly in ME (iraq, syria) lately

"us-led war" :/

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/26/isis-syria-turkey-us

In the wake of the raid that killed Abu Sayyaf, suspicions of an undeclared alliance have hardened. One senior western official familiar with the intelligence gathered at the slain leader’s compound said that direct dealings between Turkish officials and ranking Isis members was now “undeniable”.

“There are hundreds of flash drives and documents that were seized there,” the official told the Observer. “They are being analysed at the moment, but the links are already so clear that they could end up having profound policy implications for the relationship between us and Ankara.”

Turkey calls Nato talks on IS and PKK

The US has called on both Turkey and the PKK to avoid violence, but said Turkey had the right to defend itself against attacks by Kurdish rebels.

http://www.blazingcatfur.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ISIS-How-to-survive-in-the-west.pdf

crazy that this pollard thing is ending. it feels like it has been going on my entire life (and since i was born in 1984, it mostly has):
http://www.wsj.com/articles/israeli-spy-pollard-will-be-released-in-november-lawyers-say-1438104728

turkeys moves have been deeply cynical to me.. they've been ignoring alot of whats going on down south, but seem to be acting now to exploit a suicide bombing as cover to blow up the pkk and gin up nationalism for a quick election to get erdogan's party back to a strong position after they got humiliated in the last one

can someone explain to me how "life in prison" and "mandatory parole" are not mutually exclusive

yes:

CBS says: "His release is scheduled for November 20, 30 years after he was arrested for selling classified information to Israel. He will eligible for mandatory parole at that point. At the Aspen Security forum over the weekend, Attorney General Loretta Lynch said that Pollard received a life sentence 30 years ago, but the law at the time provided for mandatory parole after 30 years absent any other violations. 'He is one of the few that is still a prisoner under the older set of sentencing laws,' Lynch said. 'A life sentence now is in fact a life sentence.'"

huh

thx

A life sentence in most other western countries is way less than life. It's like 14 years in Denmark, iirc.

p short life expectancy you guys have over there

it is so inhumane to keep someone in prison for life. honestly 30 years is too much for anyone but the most unrepentant serial killer. we're such a punitive nation.

Honestly, I don't mind when sociopaths are sequestered from general society permanently. This 2-3% of the population, who are physically incapable of empathy or remorse, take far more from society than they give, even and especially when (by virtue of their insensitivity) find themselves in authority positions. And there's no effective treatment - it appears to be neurologically "fixed" during development. There may have been a selective advantage to a few sociopaths in one's clan during the constant warfare of the prehistoric state, but that utility is pretty well lost these days.

They don't represent all, or even the majority, of convicted criminals. Plenty of non-sociopaths commit crimes when provoked by financial or emotional duress. Ideally, parole boards would employ psychologists well skilled in distinguishing the two populations.

I think that's all otm

link expires in 47 hours:
https://pando.com/2015/07/29/war-nerd-dont-be-fooled-its-kurds-turkey-attacking/a8b5908c51cc1d2dc240de4084ef8a37e9b23d13/

linked from that piece in case u really want to get yr blood boiling:
http://www.todayszaman.com/national_govt-whistleblower-says-recent-attacks-in-suruc-kilis-were-plots_394787.html

+ http://www.businessinsider.com.au/links-between-turkey-and-isis-are-now-undeniable-2015-7

Your pal War Nerd always has to throw in his cliched criticisms of "leftists" into everything he writes. ZZZZZZZZZZZzz

one throwaway line? tbh he's not wrong. the international left (in which judith butler included hamas + hezbollah) is pretty fucking stupid.

btw he often tees off on Israel too but it doesn't hurt /my/ feelings

a lot of interesting analysis of IS here:
http://pomeps.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/POMEPS_Studies_15_Islam_Web.pdf

among other topics

+ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/07/22/contesting-the-caliphate/?postshare=8041438206676132

TY for all the post-paywall War Nerd unlocks in this thread, Mordy (amazed they work in China tbh).

War Nerd says "western leftists" don't care about the Kurds and offer "guarded silence", then how does War Nerd explain this article in The Nation

http://www.thenation.com/article/are-leftist-feminist-kurds-about-to-deliver-the-coup-de-grace-to-isil-in-syria/

It is nonsense. There is huge admiration for the YPG and Kurdish political groups in Turkey.

Admiration from Western leftists that is.

(wdn't take those comments re western leftists too seriously; seem more part of schtick, cf also comments re redstaters & u.s. bombing mexico. not sure what he means re reasons for leftists’ nervousness/ guardedness re kurds; my guess is to do with iraq war)

turkish behavior here v disturbing; interesting as more comes to light. clearly dark machiavellian stuff going on in relations/collusion with isis, & opportunistic cover for bombing pkk

still unclear to what extent turkey gov’t feels things ‘out of control’ w/r/t isis; not sure how far to believe whistleblower article suggesting reichstag-fire stuff (though wd not be surprised)

which reminds me. someone i know lived in turkey in expatriate community for some years in the 50s, told me story of witnessing these mob riots, lootings killing rapes of greeks & armenians (from parapet on a hill, saw the fires, heard the screams, marked him for life): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Istanbul_pogrom
set off by false flag bombing of ataturk mausoleum

thx for link to articles on isis, which i just started, v interesting

It is part of a schtick but Brecher is often better than that. I'd assume the point is that pressure from "the left" to not intervene has limited the amount of military support the US / Europe have given to the YPG but given the complexity of the situation and the wider reluctance to get entangled in the region in a more extensive way, it seems wide of the mark to lay it at the door of the left in particular or link it to any special antipathy towards the Kurdish movement in general. As Brecher knows and has pointed out in the past, there are "western leftists" from Germany, France, the UK, etc, fighting and dying alongside the YPG.

The whole piece is thin, tbh. The "evidence" of collusion at the moment amounts to allegations made on an anonymous Twitter account and equally anonymous 'insider information' from an intelligence source on documents allegedly found among an ISIS oil smuggler's possessions.

There's clearly a level of complicity in allowing ISIS to operate as an economic entity, as well as a military one, and turning a blind eye to people going across the border to fight, though. The plan of setting the two threats to Turkey's territorial integrity against each other and letting them get on with it looks clear enough, though the new position of letting the US operate bombing raids from bases within Turkey does seem to mark a shift.