Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

At least 27 dead in a bomb attack in Turkey. Looks like it could be an ISIS attack targeting refugees who have come across the border near Kobane.

i think mostly young activists from socialist and kurdish groups trying to bring assistance to kobane. there's a horrific video of the blast on twitter, it's some sort of event with people holding a banner before the explosion.

Could get messy this.

just heard someone on Newshour being interviewed who kept insisting that Cameron is wrong to say that ideology leads to violence bc of 'empirical evidence,' but whenever the interviewer asked him for specific data/studies that proved that he ducked the question. does anyone here maybe have an idea of what he was referring to when he claimed that the connection between ideology + violence had been totally debunked?

http://www.tabletmag.com/scroll/192309/knesset-rejects-death-penalty-for-terrorists-bill-96-4

I feel like Cameron should maybe sorta look at the fact that people that are drawn to isis are also coming from poor as fuck countries with hordes of unemployed, idle young men with nothing better to do..

Poor as fuck like medical doctors from the Uk

Well considering his speech was about the radicalisation of UK Muslims I hardly think he's going describe the country he's been Prime Minster of for 5 years as 'poor as fuck with hordes of unemployed, idle young men with nothing better to do', no matter how accurate a description that might be.

But some of the radicalized are not poor and unemployed

No matter how accurate a description that might be of the UK... bit of politics on the UK being 'poor as fuck with hordes of unemployed, idle young men with nothing better to do', do you see? Satire is dead again.

Iranian hardliners are gonna hardline but wtf is w/ Kerry's wide-eyed naif-in-the-woods act? This is the first time he's hearing about the Iranian revolution's opinions re the Great and Little Satan?

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/07/21/Kerry-to-Al-Arabiya-Khamenei-s-speech-was-disturbing-.html

Kerry told Al Arabiya that he was taking the comments at face value.

“I don’t know how to interpret it at this point in time, except to take it at face value, that that’s his policy. But I do know that often comments are made publicly and things can evolve that are different. If it is the policy, it’s very disturbing, it’s very troubling, and we’ll have to wait and see,” the Secretary said.

Who is Little Satan these days?

http://europe.newsweek.com/us-reportedly-offer-israel-unprecedented-arms-deal-330550?ref=yfp < bibi better take this deal if he knows what's good for him

tom: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Satan#Lesser_Satan xp

Ah, the UK, typically, sometimes sees itself as Little Satan, let's face it they hated the UK long before they hated the US.

I think nakh might attribute that to the UK's ongoing struggle to reconcile itself to non power status :p

"We are Satan too!"

Undoubtedly. More like, hey, don't forge us, we used to be Satan!

forget even

Have you heard of My Uncle Napoleon?

no - i haven't! i'll check it out. looks like fun

v interesting guy > http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/192329/the-most-dangerous-man-in-iran

yes, v interesting. hope he's omen of future iran

strange to hear this said so plainly (by anyone, in iran or the west):

”The reason that the West is nervous and opposes our nuclear program is because Iran has stated very precisely and officially that Iran is going to destroy the state of Israel. Therefore the Israelis—as well as everyone else—can be worried about this country becoming engaged in uranium enrichment. That’s why the United States, Israel, and Europe are against our nuclear program. If we had not stated that we are going to destroy the state of Israel, none of this would happen.”

in the end, though, that statement/ rhetoric not v relevant (or not much of a hindrance) to the deal
& of course opposition to nuclear program not just about that statement/ rhetoric; other geopolitical factors

wd like to feel more of his optimism re positive influence of deal (e.g. moderating/diversifying influence on iranian politics)
not too hopeful yet hoping
might dilute iran gov’t’s anti-americanism (though that by itself doesn’t mean much; anyway, u.s. relevance/influence now decreased, for good or ill)
but i don’t see it affecting anti-israel policy (not in near term anyway)

then there’s effects on ME balance of power, regional instability, & weapons proliferation
(& call me cynical, but it’s obv to me there will be cheating & ineffective oversight, as always)
maybe was no (or not much) better alternative to this gamble, but can’t help seeing downsides here (not just in final terms of deal & consequences, but how the negotiation was conducted & precedents it set)
hope downside outweighed (if not by upside at least) by less downside
guess we’ll see how things shake out, in the never not fucked-up balance of history

here’s a conversation with 3 diff perspectives on deal
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/iran-nuclear-deal-goldberg-frum-beinart/398816/

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-preparing-to-release-convicted-israeli-spy-jonathan-pollard-officials-say-1437766957

http://newsoffice.mit.edu/2015/us-iran-nuclear-deal-0724

u-s-preparing-to-release-convicted-israeli-spy-jonathan-pollard-officials-say

lol such an obv move (kind of embarrassingly so tbh)

newsoffice.mit.edu/2015/us-iran-nuclear-deal

thx for link with those perspectives
i’ve read positive assessments of deal, those are especially glowing
they are experts, so it’s likely they are correct & my skepticism is unwarranted
(anyway, hope so)
(still skeptical)

lol such an obv move (kind of embarrassingly so tbh)

Dude was sentenced to life, gets released after 30 years. Will this "goodwill" have much political benefit for the US? I doubt it

doubt it too
but clearly admin decided there was need right now for this (all too transparent) move vis-a-vis israel
political reasons not just international but domestic maybe
not against it, just saying

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/turkish-jets-strike-kurds-iraq-complicating-anti-isis-fight-n398276

i'm still very skeptical of any pollard release stories (for the good reason of them being plentiful over my lifetime and simultaneously never true). i've never been particularly attached to his release, though my parents are, and i wonder if it's a generational thing (i was only 3yo in 1987 when he was sentenced). if it is true, i think it's neat that the Algemeiner Journal (the first newspaper i ever worked for back when i was 20yo) broke it an entire week before the WSJ: http://www.algemeiner.com/2015/07/17/source-jonathan-pollard-likely-to-be-released-later-this-year/

what the hell is wrong with turkey? xp like i understand why they're afraid of kurdish unity but who the hell enters a war explicitly announced against one side and then uses it as an opportunity to bomb the hell out of the other side? and from the description it doesn't sound like it was an accident or fog of war: "The jets hit PKK shelters, bunkers, caves, storages facilities and other "logistical points," a statement from the Turkish prime minister's office said. It said areas targeted included the Qandil mountains, where the PKK's command is based."

(further reading suggests it's retaliation for a PKK attack a few days ago but still so transparently opportunistic and self-defeating)

I imagine it's designed to send a message that Turkey won't accept either side bringing the war within its own borders. ISIS gets hit for the bombing, the PKK gets hit for murdering two Turkish police officers they suspected of being sympathisers. Turkey's attempts at playing a strategic game with both sides have failed and there's a significant risk of it spilling over domestically now.

wtf
diff states (supposedly in coalition?) bombing willy-nilly in ME (iraq, syria) lately

"us-led war" :/

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/26/isis-syria-turkey-us

In the wake of the raid that killed Abu Sayyaf, suspicions of an undeclared alliance have hardened. One senior western official familiar with the intelligence gathered at the slain leader’s compound said that direct dealings between Turkish officials and ranking Isis members was now “undeniable”.

“There are hundreds of flash drives and documents that were seized there,” the official told the Observer. “They are being analysed at the moment, but the links are already so clear that they could end up having profound policy implications for the relationship between us and Ankara.”

Turkey calls Nato talks on IS and PKK

The US has called on both Turkey and the PKK to avoid violence, but said Turkey had the right to defend itself against attacks by Kurdish rebels.

http://www.blazingcatfur.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ISIS-How-to-survive-in-the-west.pdf

crazy that this pollard thing is ending. it feels like it has been going on my entire life (and since i was born in 1984, it mostly has):
http://www.wsj.com/articles/israeli-spy-pollard-will-be-released-in-november-lawyers-say-1438104728

turkeys moves have been deeply cynical to me.. they've been ignoring alot of whats going on down south, but seem to be acting now to exploit a suicide bombing as cover to blow up the pkk and gin up nationalism for a quick election to get erdogan's party back to a strong position after they got humiliated in the last one

can someone explain to me how "life in prison" and "mandatory parole" are not mutually exclusive

yes:

CBS says: "His release is scheduled for November 20, 30 years after he was arrested for selling classified information to Israel. He will eligible for mandatory parole at that point. At the Aspen Security forum over the weekend, Attorney General Loretta Lynch said that Pollard received a life sentence 30 years ago, but the law at the time provided for mandatory parole after 30 years absent any other violations. 'He is one of the few that is still a prisoner under the older set of sentencing laws,' Lynch said. 'A life sentence now is in fact a life sentence.'"

huh

thx

A life sentence in most other western countries is way less than life. It's like 14 years in Denmark, iirc.

p short life expectancy you guys have over there

it is so inhumane to keep someone in prison for life. honestly 30 years is too much for anyone but the most unrepentant serial killer. we're such a punitive nation.

Honestly, I don't mind when sociopaths are sequestered from general society permanently. This 2-3% of the population, who are physically incapable of empathy or remorse, take far more from society than they give, even and especially when (by virtue of their insensitivity) find themselves in authority positions. And there's no effective treatment - it appears to be neurologically "fixed" during development. There may have been a selective advantage to a few sociopaths in one's clan during the constant warfare of the prehistoric state, but that utility is pretty well lost these days.

They don't represent all, or even the majority, of convicted criminals. Plenty of non-sociopaths commit crimes when provoked by financial or emotional duress. Ideally, parole boards would employ psychologists well skilled in distinguishing the two populations.

I think that's all otm

link expires in 47 hours:
https://pando.com/2015/07/29/war-nerd-dont-be-fooled-its-kurds-turkey-attacking/a8b5908c51cc1d2dc240de4084ef8a37e9b23d13/

linked from that piece in case u really want to get yr blood boiling:
http://www.todayszaman.com/national_govt-whistleblower-says-recent-attacks-in-suruc-kilis-were-plots_394787.html

+ http://www.businessinsider.com.au/links-between-turkey-and-isis-are-now-undeniable-2015-7