Earthquake?

Because there rarely seems to be any public follow-up to scary articles: http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/07/kathryn_schulz_s_new_yorker_story_on_pacific_northwest_earthquake_geologists.html

Takeaway is that yeah, it will be bad, but probably not quite as bad as the article claims. A lot of destruction, especially on the coast, but nothing will be exactly be "toast." Coast looks potentially worst off, major cities look like they'll experience problems a la Katrina, but nothing completely catastrophic. The dude quoted puts the chance of this happening in our lifetime at around 15%, but the piece sums up the potential schedule as a major quake happening sometime between tomorrow and the year 2600. Which is still scary and hardly reassuring, but wide enough a span that I would still slot this in with other "this will likely eventually happen" scary predictions, a la asteroids.

Other takeaway is that while we are way behind Japan in terms of preparedness, we're not at ground zero (so to speak). Seattle has an earthquake preparedness plan, and they are currently testing tsunami warnings. Per politics, I hope piece like this one speed the process a lot.

there has been a lot of backpedaling regarding the "toast" comment, but not w/r/t the coast, just the interior west of I5. I think your assessment (and that followup article) is overly optimistic. I mean, statements like:

Thankfully, this is why we have Reddit.

don't exactly fill me with confidence.

being more prepared for disasters never hurts, as long as you don't go down the prepper rabbit hole.

good, sober followup interview with one of the main sources for the OG article:

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/07/tsunami_earthquake_cascadia_ch.html#incart_big-photo

Q: How likely is a magnitude-9 Cascadia earthquake and tsunami in our lifetimes?

A: It depends where along the coast you are. The probabilities are spatial, because we have at least four types of Cascadia earthquakes that have different rupture lengths. There's a probability of 15 to 20 percent in Washington during the next 50 years, not necessarily of a 9 (magnitude), but of an earthquake that's capable of leaving a geological record – roughly a magnitude 8. That probability includes a mix of earthquakes, and probably half to two-thirds of them are in the 9 range, but there are smaller ones as well. We're going to be giving new numbers at a meeting just this week in Zurich. It's up a little bit from where it was.

Q: What's the probability in Oregon?

A: The central part of Oregon is on the order of 25 to 30 percent. That's from central Oregon southward, on the coast. Then for southern-most Oregon and in northern California it bumps up a little bit more: 37 to 40 percent.

that's in the next FIFTY years, not until 2600.

live chat later today as well:

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/07/the_really_big_one_osu_earthqu.html#incart_big-photo

I got the 2600 from this:

Vidale said that the chances of the worst-case scenario happening in your lifetime, if you’re planning on living another 50 years or so, is about 15 percent. That’s probably a better way of looking at the recurrence statistics than on an annual basis. Historically, the frequency of major earthquakes in the region is about one every 300 years, which means we’re overdue for a megaquake if you average the past 10,000 years of Northwest geology. But the spacing between past magnitude-9 quakes was between 200 and 900 years. If the fault system maintains that pattern, the next big one could happen again tomorrow or in the year 2600. There’s no way to know.

And I wasn't being optimistic, unless you think "Katrina level event" is optimistic. Just more optimistic than "west coast collapses into the sea."

Scientists have learned a lot since the Nisqually earthquake in 2001, and it’s mostly bad news.

4.0 in the Oakland hills was a hell of a jolt with coffee this AM

javascript:void(0)

oops

San Francisco and what to do in it

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/9/17/1442461010054/4ffe5d79-4c7c-4466-8a5d-6e9fd6555179-1020x880.jpeg

sorry

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/sep/17/chile-earthquake-massive-83-magnitude-tremor-strikes-santiago-live-updates

Here we go again

Just a few days after my mother returns to Chile....this... Same as in 2010

Haven't been able to get through to her, and she lives in a 15th floor apartment just north of Viña

scary, hope she is ok <3

be prepared:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/2/29/1493107/--There-is-a-Major-Carbon-Monoxide-Explosion-on-the-West-Coast

http://www.snopes.com/carbon-monoxide-spike-earthquake/

thanks, good article.

I'm still prepared, though.

always good to be prepared

Awesome, a 3.3 and a 3.8 about 30 miles away from here (they were 20 miles ENE of Ojai in Ventura County) within an hour and a half. Not at all freaked out.

Had a 4.5 in Kathmandu this evening which i didn't even notice (other than the electricity cutting out) but understandably scared the hell out of people with the anniversary of the 8.1 coming up in a fortnight.

Fuck! The earthquake has followed me to Delhi! This is more than 4.5 - my hotel is shaking, though thankfully seems to be fairly solid.

7.1, seems to be centred in Northern Pakistan but shook all the way through Punjab to Delhi. This is big.

1200+ dead in Indonesia

https://www.democracynow.org/2018/10/2/headlines/indonesia_death_toll_from_earthquake_and_tsunami_tops_1_200

Happy 4th — 6.6 east of Bakersfield. Felt pretty strong here in L.A.

Did you do anything interesting during it?

yikes, that wasn't very far away - same county. we are basically on top of San Andreas fault here in Redlands ( don't think today's was on that fault?). i live in a house from ~1908 and am a little nervous if something bigger than what just happened strikes while i'm in my apt. but that was a gentle 30 second sway. i lived through the Northridge quake which was scary af

by “strong” I should say it was the first quake I’ve been unnerved by since I moved here, it kept going for just a bit longer than most. I didn’t do much interesting during it except suggest to the kid to get under the table just in case.

I started keeping shoes and pants under my bed since we get a lot of earthquakes in early morning or the middle of the night. Also we sometimes open the apt. door if it seems to be gathering strength because we had a friend get locked in his apt during one of the 8somethings (door frame jammed the door.)

that is some quality preparedness info. thx, Yerac

i need to start keeping water supplies and some cliff bars or something at the very least in preparation for the pnw big one. completely unprepared atm

should've been scared straight by that new yorker article but alas complacency reigns

I always worry about what I should do when I’m in Japan. I’ve already been woken in my sleep by some aftershocks in Hokkaido; and missed the bigger one that hit Osaka last year by a day. Both of those had fatalities. Given I’m spending about 3 months a year there I should be a bit more prepared.

Since I've been living in Christchurch people have been telling me about the most basic things I should be doing so I'm prepared when another earthquake hits - keeping the car at least half full of petrol, keeping a few hundred dollars in cash, keeping a torch with fresh batteries next to the bed - I don't do any of these things, I really should, it's not that difficult

lol wow ok
my husband was in SF during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and he does all those things — i only just now realized the significance

I slept through the Northridge one and I didn’t feel today’s because I was in a moving car.

It’s sad to see the damage it caused at the epicenter. Other than that, no big deal.

(Granted I was far from the epicenters both times)

I was in a moving car during the loma prieta quake. it was surreal to feel the rough road, to see buildings and telephone polls swaying and to watch as everyone pulled over to the side of the road.

and also to hear kqed announce that a section of the bay bridge had collapsed and then immediately cut out

by the time I got to my home in the planets the electricity was already out. I called my family members when I got home tell them I was ok just before the phone lines died. it was evening and everyone in my neighborhood came out into the street, not sure why but that was my instinct too

Xpost I am not really terribly prepared. Sometimes if it feels above a 5ish and is sustained I go stand by the drink cart which is near the kitchen entry. I figure if the building becomes unstable at least I am near drink and food options and I have a usable Israeli gas mask on the drink cart. The worst that ever happens even during the 8 was a crack appeared and we had to regrout some tiles. That may have been a bad grout problem though.

FYI the friend that got locked in his apartment was drunk at the time and had to wait for the firefighters to eventually break open his door.

This one was the longest by far, really weird to have a quake last well over 30 seconds. Never super intense but the length added a new dimension. I saw my downstairs neighbors run outside, my fam just sort of rode it out and waited

woah. this felt quite a bit more than 30 seconds

ok shit

7.1

!

6.9, seemed much like the one yesterday but just a little stronger and longer. i briefly feared for my cocktail so i grabbed it from the table lol

ooh just felt another aftershock

now upgraded back up to 7.1

That was not fun