fpd u and u know very well why
― irl lol (darraghmac), Thursday, 2 July 2015 08:49 (eight years ago) link
:-)
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 2 July 2015 09:41 (eight years ago) link
"what would you do if you were greece?" is a fun question to ask ppl ime/a good way of eliciting latent cluelessness
― ogmor, Thursday, 2 July 2015 09:57 (eight years ago) link
greece is the word lol
― 2011’s flagrantly ceremonious rock-opera (Bananaman Begins), Thursday, 2 July 2015 10:06 (eight years ago) link
It's worth remembering with all the comparisons to Ireland that there are some crucial differences between the two. Irish GDP per capita is about 200% of Greece's and debt as a percentage of GDP has always been much lower. Ireland's was something like 115% during the 2012 crisis - Greece's is currently 177%.
Also worth bearing in mind that Ireland has not paid back any of the debt - it's just servicing the interest. The proportion of debt to GDP rose in 2013 and 2014, iirrc, and the actual cash amount is projected to increase slowly over the next five years. It's only going to decrease as a % of GDP to manageable levels because the economy is supposedly going to grow fairly quickly as well. Syriza's argument is that an overly harsh programme of cuts is going to stifle the economy and prevent that kind of growth happening in Greece.
― who epitomises beta better than (ShariVari), Thursday, 2 July 2015 10:32 (eight years ago) link
http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/greece-ireland-economics/3805
― Keith Moom (Neil S), Thursday, 2 July 2015 10:34 (eight years ago) link
varoufakis is enjoying himself too much throughout
― bureau belfast model (LocalGarda), Thursday, 2 July 2015 10:52 (eight years ago) link
oh I don't know
― conrad, Thursday, 2 July 2015 11:17 (eight years ago) link
Tsipras always tells his guys in the dressing room, just go out and enjoy yourselves
― 2011’s flagrantly ceremonious rock-opera (Bananaman Begins), Thursday, 2 July 2015 13:51 (eight years ago) link
Interesting update from the IMF:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/02/imf-greece-needs-extra-50bn-euros
Nothing is viable without long-term debt restructuring and immediate debt relief, which is more or less what Syriza is after.
― who epitomises beta better than (ShariVari), Thursday, 2 July 2015 15:25 (eight years ago) link
astonishing, really
they've just done the EU/ECB
― hot doug stamper (||||||||), Thursday, 2 July 2015 15:51 (eight years ago) link
xp leftist experimental economics fanboy whatiffery of the worst sort imo
― 2011’s flagrantly ceremonious rock-opera (Bananaman Begins), Thursday, 2 July 2015 16:50 (eight years ago) link
reported by the Guardian tbf
― irl lol (darraghmac), Thursday, 2 July 2015 16:53 (eight years ago) link
Is the Guardian better than it used to be?
― holger sharkey (Tom D.), Thursday, 2 July 2015 17:06 (eight years ago) link
Imagine being one of the poor saps in the room when Angela Merkel read that statement.
― Matt DC, Thursday, 2 July 2015 17:10 (eight years ago) link
(Trying not to mention Bruno Ganz in "Downfall" here)
― holger sharkey (Tom D.), Thursday, 2 July 2015 17:12 (eight years ago) link
Given what Lagarde was saying earlier this week this isn't going to be without a number of big Greek concessions, a number of which are going to be anathema to Syriza, but then again it is the IMF.
― Matt DC, Thursday, 2 July 2015 17:15 (eight years ago) link
would love to have seen schauble's face
― hot doug stamper (||||||||), Thursday, 2 July 2015 17:20 (eight years ago) link
More from the IMF report, too hard to report so I am going to click in The Guardian instead: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43044
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 2 July 2015 17:43 (eight years ago) link
too hard to read, ugh.
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 2 July 2015 17:44 (eight years ago) link
there was a good summary on FT Alphaville. some synthesis:- it shifts part of the blame to prev. and current Greek government (no ambition to hit primary surplus targets, no commitment to privatization or reforms). market interest rates were low, so if program had been implemented we would be in a pretty good shape.- it offered a politically feasible (well, up until last Friday) solution, namely doubling of maturities (would have been very easy to accomplish) and adding a sizable 3rd bailout, without imposing haircuts.- no more "systemic exception" for Greece- time to stop talking about debt/GDP ratios, since loans are on very sweet ("extraordinarily concessional") terms- haircuts phrased in very careful way: needed *if* primary surplus of ~3% of GDP not hit, but not needed if it gets to 3-4% over medium term. this is dangerous territory: aiming for low surpluses = not requiring future governments to impose any austerity measures = "moral hazard". aiming for high surpluses is probably delusional?anyway, the numbers are probably pretty worthless since last week? how many billions would be needed to recapitalize the banks, clear arrears etc.?
― Sharkie, Friday, 3 July 2015 00:26 (eight years ago) link
"moral hazard" lol
― 2011’s flagrantly ceremonious rock-opera (Bananaman Begins), Friday, 3 July 2015 09:29 (eight years ago) link
http://www.interfluidity.com/v2/5965.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
― flopson, Saturday, 4 July 2015 22:19 (eight years ago) link
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/30/world/europe/greeces-troubles-attract-little-sympathy-from-poorer-neighbors.html
― Mordy, Sunday, 5 July 2015 15:53 (eight years ago) link
Good news then that they'll soon be poorer than Bulgarians, well done Europe! Trebles all round!
― holger sharkey (Tom D.), Sunday, 5 July 2015 16:08 (eight years ago) link
Speaking in Brussels last week before the start of a European Union summit meeting, Prime Minister Boiko Borisov of Bulgaria complained that he was fed up with so much time being spent on Greece’s need for bailout funds to pay its bills when other countries had so many problems of their own.
Problems like having Boiko Borisov as Prime Minister perhaps?
― holger sharkey (Tom D.), Sunday, 5 July 2015 16:13 (eight years ago) link
"Soviet-imposed penury" is an interesting interpretation of the Baltic states' financial worries.
The Latvian government was struggling to avert a financial meltdown today as ministers convened emergency talks with Scandinavian banks to discuss a bold and controversial plan to slash mortgage-holders' liabilities to lenders.The scheme could mean billions in losses for the big Swedish banks most exposed by the small Baltic state's financial and economic crisis.Valdis Dombrovskis, the embattled Latvian prime minister, said he was confident he could get his proposal through the parliament in Riga, but was still examining the legal implications of the scheme. But the powerful Latvian central bank delivered an unusually blunt attack on the prime minister, saying that his budget and bank policies were feeding a fresh "wave of distrust" towards the small and highly vulnerable state.AdvertisementBanking sources in Riga warned that the radical proposal on mortgages, which could see borrowers repaying only a fraction of their loan, would backfire, deterring foreign investment, bringing already low bank lending to a complete standstill and wrecking international confidence in Latvia.Dombrovskis said the foreign banks, which hold controlling stakes over 90% of the Latvian banking sector, shared the blame for the crisis and would also have to share the costs. "Some balance has to be found between the interests of borrowers and the interests of lenders," the prime minister told the Guardian. "The real incomes of people are diminishing and it is getting more difficult to repay loans."
The scheme could mean billions in losses for the big Swedish banks most exposed by the small Baltic state's financial and economic crisis.
Valdis Dombrovskis, the embattled Latvian prime minister, said he was confident he could get his proposal through the parliament in Riga, but was still examining the legal implications of the scheme. But the powerful Latvian central bank delivered an unusually blunt attack on the prime minister, saying that his budget and bank policies were feeding a fresh "wave of distrust" towards the small and highly vulnerable state.
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Banking sources in Riga warned that the radical proposal on mortgages, which could see borrowers repaying only a fraction of their loan, would backfire, deterring foreign investment, bringing already low bank lending to a complete standstill and wrecking international confidence in Latvia.
Dombrovskis said the foreign banks, which hold controlling stakes over 90% of the Latvian banking sector, shared the blame for the crisis and would also have to share the costs. "Some balance has to be found between the interests of borrowers and the interests of lenders," the prime minister told the Guardian. "The real incomes of people are diminishing and it is getting more difficult to repay loans."
From 2009. Wonder what happened to that Dombrovskis guy...
― who epitomises beta better than (ShariVari), Sunday, 5 July 2015 16:30 (eight years ago) link
http://i.imgur.com/mA8xYBk.png
^ Soviet-imposed penury in action.
― who epitomises beta better than (ShariVari), Sunday, 5 July 2015 16:44 (eight years ago) link
early returns have it at 60:40 no
― hot doug stamper (||||||||), Sunday, 5 July 2015 17:39 (eight years ago) link
Pretty decisive.
― holger sharkey (Tom D.), Sunday, 5 July 2015 18:23 (eight years ago) link
didn't expect that tbh
― List of people who are ready for woe and how we know this (seandalai), Sunday, 5 July 2015 18:29 (eight years ago) link
decisive > indecisive no matter which way it went imo
http://www.ekathimerini.com/198826/article/ekathimerini/news/declaration-of-professors-of-economics-at-greek-universities-on-the-referendum
― Mordy, Sunday, 5 July 2015 18:54 (eight years ago) link
Better luck next time, guys.
― holger sharkey (Tom D.), Sunday, 5 July 2015 19:27 (eight years ago) link
i don't know what to make of all this. the referendum was a hypothetical counterfactual: if this offer were still on the table, would you have liked for us to vote for it? like.. what? now the answer is "no," well what does that mean? it's a mandate to not accept a deal that they didn't accept that is no longer on offer. tsipras is counting on them getting offered a better deal with these results, varoufakis promised one within 24 hours if the result was "no" (although he conveniently claimed to have been misquoted after the results were in.) maybe that will happen, but if so it would be marginally better, nothing radically different. does "no" mean "yes to a marginally better deal"?
even experts seem to be saying "no one knows what's going on, the next few days will be an insane shit show, hopefully everything snaps into place"
i'm not sure the narrative of rejecting austerity some ppl who are currently rejoicing are pushing is apt. there will likely be brutal austerity now... from the link mordy posted above
Short-run consequences: Bank closures, cut in the value of deposits, sharp decline in tourism, shortages of basic consumer goods and raw materials, black market, hyperinflation, firm bankruptcies and a big rise in unemployment, rapid fall in real wages and the real value of pensions, deep recession and serious problems in the functioning of public health care and defense, social unrest. Medium-term consequences: international isolation of the country, no access to international capital markets for several years, low growth and anemic investment, high unemployment combined with high inflation rates, suspension of the flow of EU structural funds, significant decline in the standard of living, poor provision of basic public goods and services.
Medium-term consequences: international isolation of the country, no access to international capital markets for several years, low growth and anemic investment, high unemployment combined with high inflation rates, suspension of the flow of EU structural funds, significant decline in the standard of living, poor provision of basic public goods and services.
as irresistible as a narrative of the people against the banks may be, what are the pros will be to offset these cons, all of which have severe human costs? anyone needs to answer that before celebrating
― flopson, Sunday, 5 July 2015 19:28 (eight years ago) link
The victory celebrations are like "yay, we just voted against paying off our debt and there will be no consequences!" - ok, I don't think foreclosing the Parthenon is on the table, but still
― StanM, Sunday, 5 July 2015 19:36 (eight years ago) link
paul mccartney / big bankers who got 90% of the IMF's greek bailout money ~
I remember making a very conscious choice: “OK, we’re getting really famous now, you’ve got to decide, whether or not to go for it.” For some reason Marilyn Monroe came into my mind. Like: this could be horrible. It was actually after a trip to Greece. We weren’t famous in Greece, and I’d hung out with the hotel band and was chatting to them: “I’m in a band, too, you know? We’re called The Beatles.” And I got a glazed look from them. I thought, “This is OK, if the fame gets too much we can always come to Greece.” Then, of course, the next year it was like, “Oh, no, you’re famous in Greece, too. Oh, God.” And I remember thinking, “Do you want to do this or don’t you?” And it was, “I like it too much to stop.”
http://www.esquire.co.uk/culture/music/8511/paul-mccartney-interview/
― reggie (qualmsley), Sunday, 5 July 2015 19:37 (eight years ago) link
tsipras is counting on them getting offered a better deal with these results... maybe that will happen, but if so it would be marginally better, nothing radically different.
Well, he was counting on them getting offered a better deal with a simple 'No' majority but the margin is 20% (and seems to be rising) so I imagine he'll be looking for something more than marginally better.
― holger sharkey (Tom D.), Sunday, 5 July 2015 19:44 (eight years ago) link
i guess we'll find out
― flopson, Sunday, 5 July 2015 19:50 (eight years ago) link
When Iceland voted against paying what they owed, they came out of it really well. Yeah, this is going to be fucking tough on the Greeks, but at leat it will be tough on their own terms. Short term and middle term will be rough, but the bullshit provisions french and german banks kept getting in these deals would have kept the suffering eternity-termed. So yay Greece!
― Frederik B, Sunday, 5 July 2015 19:53 (eight years ago) link
greece != iceland
― flopson, Sunday, 5 July 2015 19:56 (eight years ago) link
the referendum was a hypothetical counterfactual: if this offer were still on the table, would you have liked for us to vote for it?
This is about strengthening his government's position in the country more than it's about strengthening the government's hand in the negotiations.
The central bank and IMF were no doubt curious to see if the greeks would repudiate their government, which would have strengthened their own hand in dealing with that government, but with the greeks backing tsipras it either solidifies the stalemate and leads to default and grexit, or the bankers must make concessions to break the stalemate. Either way, tsipras stays in power now and has political cover for the national consequences of the outcome - whatever it is.
And whatever happens, it must happen pretty quickly. I hope the greek parliament is primed for quickly passing the kind of currency controls needed under grexit.
― Aimless, Sunday, 5 July 2015 19:56 (eight years ago) link
The risk is that German public / political opinion has become too entrenched for any substantially better offer to happen. Leading politicians across Europe, but particularly Germany, are framing this as a rejection of an offer of help and suggesting there can't be any way back to negotiations. There's a chance that the risk inherent in having Greece leave with popular momentum behind it might be too great for the wider European project to bear but the deals on the table were never about finding workable, pragmatic solutions. That political culture isn't going to change overnight because the Greek public wants it to.
― who epitomises beta better than (ShariVari), Sunday, 5 July 2015 20:00 (eight years ago) link
otm
― flopson, Sunday, 5 July 2015 20:03 (eight years ago) link
French resolve is wobbling though? If not, I expect it to.
― holger sharkey (Tom D.), Sunday, 5 July 2015 20:04 (eight years ago) link
France has always been open to a better deal, i think.
― who epitomises beta better than (ShariVari), Sunday, 5 July 2015 20:04 (eight years ago) link
french not enough though
― flopson, Sunday, 5 July 2015 20:05 (eight years ago) link
Either way, tsipras stays in power now and has political cover for the national consequences of the outcome - whatever it is.
otmimf/cental bank aren't accountable to or obligated by greek vote
― drash, Sunday, 5 July 2015 20:06 (eight years ago) link
what's the current take on whether Greece will (have to) leave the EU as well? and will they stay in the Schengen zone?thinking about hot new airport chaos if they're gone from the Schengen zone (can't imagine Spanish tour properties would be unhappy with that)
― droit au butt (Euler), Sunday, 5 July 2015 20:06 (eight years ago) link
echoing shari's last point
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJLMeV-WgAAcCcf.jpg
― flopson, Sunday, 5 July 2015 20:09 (eight years ago) link