2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

Shrillary's ticket to presidential candidacy was not her gender, biut her choice of mate

Regardless of who wins the nomination, can we even hope for Democrats to unite as a party after what is already appearing to be a very hotly contested and bitter race?

It depends how much crazy McBickle brings to the table this fall. GHW Bush labeled Reagan with "voodoo economics" in '80 before becoming his running mate, don't forget.

http://www.brokeland.com/tracerhand/McCainusesRALLYTHEBASE.gif

donars!

btw, when will Howard Wolfson be giving the Foreign Policy Aptitude test to Obama? The week before Denver, so he can have maximum study time?

http://blogs.pcworld.com/tipsandtweaks/archives/maptest.jpg

I have heard so many people say that they will not vote if their preferred candidate does not receive the nomination.

this scares me, a million times more than the prospect of my preferred dem not getting the nomination. i really hope that the people who would prefer to waste their votes out of spite are in the minority, but it's very worrying.

Very much agreed with this, but that sentiment seems strong in these parts.

6 weeks and 6 billion news cycles later, i wonder how many voters in those states will switch candidates.

-- Cosmo Vitelli, Tuesday, March 11, 2008 9:14 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Link

Florida may not change too much (demographics are in Hillary's favor), but recent polls show that if they conducted a do-over in Michigan (where Obama wasn't even on the ballot the first time), it'd be very close.

oh i'll get up bright and early to vote for hillary, even though i more or less hate her at this point, because i'm 100% positive a mccain presidency would be an unmitigated disaster.

maybe i'm in a tiny minority there but i think most democrats will come to that conclusion pretty quickly once this all shakes out. remember, everybody liked each other as of 3 short months ago.

I certainly ain't wasting my vote on McCain or Clinton

Hate is good!

mostly people are just a little heated right now w/all this ill stay home talk

well i wouldn't give HRC any $$ in the general...

most registered Democrats will probably vote for the nominee anyway. I'm less sure about indies.

you got to be kidding me:

Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer responds:

The path to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue goes through Pennsylvania so if Barack Obama can’t win there, how will he win the general election?

Sullivan has an interesting catch here on the Ferarro flap, Limbaugh, & Wes Clark:

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/03/limbaugh-ferrar.html

The comments referenced by Limbaugh came during Sunday's pregame show when the conservative talk show host offered the opinion that McNabb wasn't as good as the media perceived him to be. "I think what we've had here is a little social concern in the NFL. The media has been very desirous that a black quarterback do well,'' Limbaugh said. "There is a little hope invested in McNabb, and he got a lot of credit for the performance of this team that he didn't deserve. The defense carried this team."

Negative reaction did not come immediately. But on Tuesday, McNabb told the Philadelphia Daily News: "It's sad that you've got to go to skin color. I thought we were through with that whole deal." From there, the firestorm spread quickly. Democratic presidential candidates Wesley Clark, Howard Dean and Rev. Al Sharpton called for ESPN to fire Limbaugh. Others in both political and athletic circles also lashed out at Limbaugh's comments.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/obamadelmarc.JPG

So Hillary's total delegate pick-up on March 4: +6. Obama's delegate pick-up in Wyoming and Mississippi: +7. Which means that Hillary's actually lost ground since last month.

I've only just realised (from the above chart) that Obama effectively won Texas.

I don't think that the perceived swing in momentum to Hillary has as much to do with the shift in number of delegates as it does in the perception that Obama can't win the big, crucial swing states - and when he does win, it's usually because his younger, activist base gives him the edge in the caucuses - whereas Hillary does better in primary votes - which have a higher turn-out, are more representative of people how have jobs and families and can't devote several hours on a week-night to a political exercise, and are more similar to a general election.

"who have jobs and families"

"civic activists are privileged folks" is a damn foolhardy assertion to make without substantial evidence -- besides which, if your only evidence comes draws from voter demographics in democratic contests it's a perfect tautology.

It's not so much a question of who's more privileged as it is a question of which method - primary or caucus - is more representative of the will of the people and a better predictor of general election results.

Well, I made my point largely as a rejoinder against those Clinton talking points. I mean, this is something that Obama can use: "Why is Hillary claiming momentum when I've actually gained more delegates than she has in the last two weeks?"

considering that the current democratic primary system of caucuses and superdelegates were instituted to prevent the ascent of an outsider candidate sweeping the popular vote. obama's groundswell of organization has completely turned what was meant to stop candidates like him. i'm not going to argue contrary-to-fact hypotheticals here, but you can be sure that both candidates' stances on how fairly caucuses represent the will of voters is informed by gamesmanship and strategy, not the other way around.

but you can be sure that both candidates' stances on how fairly caucuses represent the will of voters is informed by gamesmanship and strategy, not the other way around.

Sure, but underneath the gamesmanship, the question of fact still remains unanswered - and if there's any doubt about the relative accuracy of the caucus as a measure of electability, I would imagine that would weigh on the minds of undecided superdelegates.

It's not so much a question of who's more privileged as it is a question of which method - primary or caucus - is more representative of the will of the people and a better predictor of general election results.

it's not hard to turn this kind of argument on its head:

being able to win in caucuses requires both and an ability to figure out and adapt to the micropolitics of a given state; it's a good measure of the organizational skill of the campaign. you can win them if you figure out how and get people into it, which is sort of your responsibility as a candidate. (or you can give them up, and complain later, if you like that strategy.)

besides, the long-time party true believers (the kind who show up for meetings in off years, etc) (old women, to stereotype grossly...) are still heavily pro-Clinton. She may even see gains in the caucus states as the results get filtered through county and state delegate selection processes. "who has time" indeed.

since when is andrew "bell curve" sullivan a crusader for civil rights

er i've got a stray 'both and' in my post, hasty editing.

since he started backing obama? i have no idea. the substance of his post seems to be the apparent double standard in the clinton corp. as applied to the statements made by rush and ferarro.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2207/2329256094_f67bc6b92f_o.jpg

who is that dude?

“I will not be discriminated against because I’m white. If they think they’re going to shut up Geraldine Ferraro with that kind of stuff, they don’t know me.”

LOL

wayne coyne from the flamings lips, right? xpost

I like how Obama is all 'will someone get the damned photo op out of my way, please?'

oh, okay. dude is way dapper! kudos.

I guess that means Obama has the annoying middle-aged innocent-psych-rock crowd sewn up

(wd still totally do Wayne tho)

thats a great photograph

haha, crazy grandma ferrarro won't shut up and is just going to sit around, smelling up the clinton campaign

If she was an old New York Italian mobbed-up grandpa, no media.

Obama Camp Memo on Clinton’s “Big State” Argument

From the Obama campaign:

FR: Iowa Governor Chet Culver, Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle, Washington Governor Christine Gregoire, Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill

DT: Wednesday, March 12, 2008

RE: Debunking the Clinton Campaign’s Dubious “Big State” Spin

In an attempt to minimize the significance of Barack Obama’s success in winning more than twice as many states as Senator Clinton, her campaign’s supporters have attempted to diminish the importance of the states where Senator Obama has prevailed.

Senator Obama has scored important victories in each of our states – states that will play a decisive role in deciding whether or not John McCain will be given the chance to enter the White House and extend George Bush’s failed policies for another 4 years.

In each of the 30 primaries and caucuses that Obama has now won, including Mississippi yesterday, he’s shown the ability to motivate Democrats to turn out at the polls, win the support of blue collar voters in suburban and rural communities and attract the support of Independents and Republicans. That’s the kind of candidate Democrats need to nominate to beat John McCain in November, and it’s the kind of leader America needs to bring to Washington the kind of change we can believe in.

The Clinton campaign’s argument ignores relevant facts about how significant a role these states played in determining the outcome of the presidential race in 2004. In fact, Obama has won 7 of 9 of the biggest states that were close in the 2004 presidential election and have already selected delegates to the 2008 Democratic convention.

More than half of the votes that Senator Clinton has won so far have come from just five states. It’s also worth noting that polls in four of these five states show that Obama would be a stronger general election candidate against McCain than Clinton.

Obama Winning Vast Majority of Big States that Were Close in 2004

Nine of the largest states that were decided by a margin of 8 points or less in 2004 have already held a caucus or a primary to select delegates to the 2008 Democratic Convention in Denver. Obama has won seven of those nine contests – including four that Bush won.

Clinton Totals Padded by States Where Obama Does Best Against McCain

The Clinton campaign’s misleading argument about the importance of her performance in the largest states actually highlights the limits of her appeal and her ability to win the general election.

To turn the Clinton argument around, more than 55% of her popular vote total and nearly half of her pledged delegates have come in just five states. In four of them, polls show that Obama would be a stronger general election candidate against McCain than Clinton. In the fifth, Texas, Clinton admitted that she didn’t expect it to be “in the general election calculation.”

Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle

this dude rules, and he could not sound more wisconsin if he tried

"Let me also say in 1984 -- and if I have said it once, I have said it 20, 60, 100 times -- in 1984, if my name was Gerard Ferraro instead of Geraldine Ferraro, I would never have been the nominee for vice president," she said.

SO, YOUR POINT?

http://youtube.com/watch?v=BlYw6sOY4O4

I just looked that up deej after your comment, and boy, you ain't kiddin'.

Grandma Geraldine is more attractive now than in 1984 though; back then she looked like she wore a Wendy's cheeseburger on her head.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/43/ElectoralCollege1984-Large.png/400px-ElectoralCollege1984-Large.png

Shhhh.

hahaha