2015 UK General Election campaign & aftermath discussion thread.

323 is more like it, Tories at anything like 300 + can form a workable enough coalition

Not even the annihilation of the Lib Dems can lift my spirits.

as much as it pains me to say this,

but given my straw poll via FB/pub/friends etc, the tories have it.

of course i do live in a very blue groove area, but still my FB feed has been full of mail/express/telegraph media fed bullshit ..

hence tonight i am getting drunk.

tomorrow is going to be unpleasant.

(i will be in the pub for the day .. either way it goes, it seems appropriate)

agree with Tom, this is souring what shd be a glorious evening

that exit poll could be completely wrong of course... maybe it could even worse :(

Single figures would be better tbf (xp)

poor Nick Robinson already cheered himself hoarse

i feel bad enough to watch Al Murray on Dave right now

oh good counting races what fun

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 4m4 minutes ago

Breaking: YouGov exit poll - CON 284 MPs, LAB 263, LIBS 31, SNP 48, UKIP 2, PLAID 3, GREEN 1

^ that's more like it

Uhhhh, that's quite a difference.

BBC, you're an embarrassment, get tae fuck.

sixth formers scurrying around with ballot boxes

i needed that Yougov poll

Well, one group of pollsters is for the high jump after this.

yeah, rooting for the yougov lads & lasses here

Come on Yougov, you can do it!

i liked the game young ones running the ballot boxes as lovingly narrated by fiona bruce, i want more of this

come on you gov xp

can someone explain to me under what scenarios the Tories don't come out as the ruling party

Yougov sample size is less than a third of BBC and idk about its methodology.

xp

broadly speaking - if between them and their possible coalition partners they don't have somewhere in the region of 320 seats

They could probably govern on their own with 316, tbh.

Definitely.

yeah sure

their possible coalition partners is not many, whatever happens

starting to wonder whether smashed Lib Dems and Tory gov isn't better than unsmashed LDs and more fragile Tory gov, if those are the two most likely outcomes

They could probably govern on their own with 316

ok well since they seem well short of 316 I guess I'm asking who their coalition partners would be. I know the UKIP are insane racist rightwingers and the Greens are obviously on Labour's side but I'm not familiar with the allegiances of the Lib Dems and SNP

xp

They've been in coalition with the Lib Dems for the last 5 years.

A lot depends on Clegg. If he loses his seat, the reformed LDs will go to Labour, I think. YouGov poll does give coalition a slim majority, mind

the BBC exit poll gives the Tories 316. UKIP will maybe get 2 seats and wouldn't go into formal coalition with them. The Northern Irish Unionist parties wd be likely to broadly support them on most issues

Nate Silvet dubious about that exit poll.

Silver

i don't believe whoever's left in charge of the Lib Dems will be able to deliver all their surviving MPs to the Tories

The BBC one I mean

bbc exit poll from last time round was bang-on, sadly, iirc

Hmm, I think I will not be watching the results roll in tonight, no point.

Might get up early to see that Farage didn't win his seat

if the bbc poll is accurate, what happens next for labour?

(xp) Was hoping for Clegg, Farage and Alex Salmond to fail, it'll probably only be Farage :(

not sure if that poll is right that Labour are way off expectations, bar a bigger thrashing in Scotland than predicted, so either write off Scotland or stop being right wing cunts, i dunno, they've been dead for 20 years

The methodology was a lot easier last time; they've had to pick new stations and new marginal seats to poll this time xp

when are we getting results?

It goes on slowly throughout the night and into tomorrow morning.

never before understood the appeal of drinking alone but that bbc exit poll gave me the immediate desire to get a bottle of wine doon me

lol i nearly ran to Tescos

I did 30 minutes ago. Fuck, Andrew Marr, Tory wankers out in force tonight.

cd've sworn Marr was a Blairite oh wait

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEbwb1AWMAAlgHw.jpg

Oh Jeremy, you can do wit but you can't do jokes...

YouGov Exit poll

labour / social democrat tally - anti-tory

Labour 263
SNP 48
Plaid 3
Green 1

315

more
SDLP 3? 2?
Respect 1?

with the lib dems as kingmakers? which way though ?
with the tories make 315
with the labour / social democrat / left 349/350 ish

liberal democrats don't want to join dup / ukip in a tory coalition - numbers fall short

however they also said no to joining labour with snp in any deal?

therefore no government outcome ? on yougov exit poll