Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

do Bibi and WaPo propose imposing sanctions for Iran's sponsorship of Hamas ans Hezbollah

I don't mean to minimize Iran's contributions to instability in the region but pretty much *every* power in the region is contributing to the instability - everyone has or is funding someone else who's causing trouble. To single out Iran for this behavior is impossible to do without looking like a hypocrite.

I can't follow it frankly, who is next week's made-up group going to be to follow these "Houthis" in the story arc?

idk if I would call the Houthis "made-up"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/11515603/Iran-is-intensifying-efforts-to-support-Hamas-in-Gaza.html

gaza war pt. ∞ coming sooner than you thought

this time... it's personal

Chuckie Schumer, the Manchurian Likud leader-to-be

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/chuck-schumer-bucks-white-house-on-iran-116713.html

P much every other Dem majority leader in my lifetime (even Reid) had at least some positions I agreed with - but Schmuck is the worst by a wide margin

x-post re Hamas in Gaza---Iran and Hamas back together again

Iran’s renewed support is a sign of a revival in Iran-Hamas relations, allies previously torn apart over the conflict in Syria, where Shi’ite Iran backed President Bashar Assad, while Hamas stood by its Sunni allies.

But in Yemen, they're on opposite sides

http://www.vox.com/2015/4/7/8363525/rumsfeld-memo-feith

Memo from 12 years ago yesterday asking Feith for proposals on Syria,Libya, and Korea and referencing Iraq

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/08/opinion/israels-unworkable-demands-on-iran.html?smid=fb-share

The alternative is no deal, and Iran simply moves forward on its nuclear program without any limits

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/09/world/middleeast/cia-director-says-irans-economic-peril-helped-drive-nuclear-deal.html?_r=0

The C.I.A. director, John O. Brennan, speaking Tuesday night at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, suggested that a key to the deal was the election of President Hassan Rouhani, who had hardly been the supreme leader’s first choice.

It took more than two years, he suggested, for the new president, a former nuclear negotiator himself, to persuade the far more isolated Ayatollah Khamenei that “six years of sanctions had really hit,” and that the economic future imperiled the country’s leadership.

From that NYT op-ed:

The Israelis have also said there should be no agreement or lifting of sanctions until Iran recognizes Israel. Iran’s hostility and threats toward Israel and its involvement in terrorist activities are heinous and unacceptable. But those issues should be dealt with separately; resolving them should not be made conditions of the nuclear agreement. Getting to a final deal won’t be easy. Mr. Obama must continue to be tough and determined in the coming months of negotiations. Israel’s demands, however, must not become an excuse to scuttle what seems to be a very serious and potentially groundbreaking deal.

I don't know if the US can get a better deal out of Iran. This deal looks pretty good, though to be frank, I remain concerned that Obama is presenting some of its provisions as done, when Iran has not only not agreed to them, but is saying otherwise in the Iranian media. But before this slips out of the annals of history, I think it's worth remembering:

Only recently have some come to think that diplomacy by definition cannot be tough. They forget the example of Truman, and Kennedy and Reagan. These presidents understood that diplomacy backed by real leverage was a fundamental tool of statecraft. And it is time to once again make American diplomacy a tool to succeed, not just a means of containing failure. We will pursue this diplomacy with no illusions about the Iranian regime. Instead, we will present a clear choice. If you abandon your dangerous nuclear program, support for terror, and threats to Israel, there will be meaningful incentives — including the lifting of sanctions, and political and economic integration with the international community. If you refuse, we will ratchet up the pressure.

For fun, another moment from nuclear negotiation history:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TcbU5jAavw

Before I take your questions, I'd like to say just a word about the framework with North Korea that Ambassador Gallucci signed this morning. This is a good deal for the United States. North Korea will freeze and then dismantle its nuclear program. South Korea and our other allies will be better protected. The entire world will be safer as we slow the spread of nuclear weapons. South Korea, with support from Japan and other nations, will bear most of the cost of providing North Korea with fuel to make up for the nuclear energy it is losing, and they will pay for an alternative power system for North Korea that will allow them to produce electricity while making it much harder for them to produce nuclear weapons. The United States and international inspectors will carefully monitor North Korea to make sure it keeps its commitments. Only as it does so will North Korea fully join the community of nations.

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/82205000/jpg/_82205284_khameneitweet.jpg

Iran's leader says Saudi air strikes causing genocide
Houthis storing ammunition in residential areas: Saudi spokesman

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uUkB8fKbys

First fourth is about Yemeni refugees fleeing into Somalia.

https://news.vice.com/video/tikrit-refugees-caught-in-the-middle

the Kissinger-Schultz WSJ op-ed (may be subscriber-only):
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-iran-deal-and-its-consequences-1428447582

though strongly critical of the deal, op-ed is more even-handed than one might think. whether one thinks deal is good or not (i'm undecided, especially given contradictory narratives from us/eu/iran & so much yet to be nailed down), op-ed raises good questions about possible future implications and complications, e.g. re enforcement, proliferation, and regional order

yes, i know, it's kissinger & schultz. of course i don't rely on this perspective-- or nyt oped(s) either

oh, it's spelled "shultz"

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared on Thursday that all sanctions would have to be lifted on the day any deal is signed and that military sites would be strictly off limits to foreign inspectors:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/10/world/middleeast/iran-khamenei-rouhani-nuclear-agreement.html

Kerry Says U.S. Knew of Iran’s Military Aid to Houthi Rebels
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/10/world/middleeast/kerry-us-iran-military-aid-houthi-yemen.html

lol "military sites", that's a handy distinction to make on their part ennit

from that kissinger op-ed: "Mixing shrewd diplomacy with open defiance of U.N. resolutions, Iran has gradually turned the negotiation on its head. Iran’s centrifuges have multiplied from about 100 at the beginning of the negotiation to almost 20,000 today." new facts on the ground lol

Khamenei's translated thoughts on the Lausanne declaration:
http://www.memri.org/report/en/print8520.htm#_ednref1

"The reason [for my concerns] is that the other side is a cheater and a liar; it breaks promises and contrary to the straight path. An example of such conduct by the opposite side [the U.S.] came during the recent talks [in Lausanne], when two hours after the talks ended, the White House published a declaration several pages long [i.e. the Fact Sheet] about the negotiations, most of which contradicted reality. Such a declaration cannot be written in two hours – this means that they had engaged in composing this slanderous, erroneous statement that contradicted the content of the negotiations at the very same time as they were negotiating with us.
"Another example [of their deception] is that after every round of talks, they deliver a public speech, and later tell [us] in private that this speech was aimed at maintaining [their] dignity at home, and to deal with the opponents [of the negotiations] – while these matters have nothing to do with us.

"As the well-known parable says: 'The hunchback sees only his companion's hump.'[1] They [the Americans] say that even if the Iranian leader opposed the negotiations, he is not telling the truth in order to [maintain] his dignity at home. But they do not understand the reality in Iran. The Leader's statements to his people are based on mutual trust, and just as the people believe me, I completely believe the people, and I [also] believe that the hands of God are always with the people. The people's presence in the cold of February 11 [Revolution Day] and in the heat of Ramadan and Jerusalem Day are all signs of the hand of God, and therefore I fully trust the people and my words to them are in the framework of the sentiment, integrity, and wisdom of the people.

"I am concerned about the conduct of the other side [the U.S.] as the negotiations continue. We must not go overboard or be hasty in this context, but rather wait and see what happens."

man Islamic rhetoric is always so fascinating to me, these odd poetic/religious interjections mixed with classic logic arguments.

i know! "the hunchbank sees only his companion's hump" is such a fantastic idiom.

also, ""Another example [of their deception] is that after every round of talks, they deliver a public speech, and later tell [us] in private that this speech was aimed at maintaining [their] dignity at home, and to deal with the opponents [of the negotiations] – while these matters have nothing to do with us," reminds me a lot of Obama's infamous "I'll have more flexibility after election" comment to Medvedev.

Iran pretending like it doesn't say one thing internationally and something different domestically is a laff. after all, in the parable cited, both have humps afaict

no doubt but in this particular scenario it's the difference between telling the truth to yr ppl and lying to yr negotiating opponent, and lying to yr ppl and telling the truth to yr negotiating opponent. (of course it could be that obama was lying to khamenei that his speeches were just lies to sooth the public, but since at some pt he actually needs to get khamenei to agree to something to have a deal, that seems like a really silly strategy.)

also i expect more from the US president than the supreme leader of iran for some reason :P

no doubt but in this particular scenario it's the difference between telling the truth to yr ppl and lying to yr negotiating opponent, and lying to yr ppl and telling the truth to yr negotiating opponent

ha exactly

though iirc obama made similar point about iran (albeit, tellingly, in defense rather than condemnation)-- waved away "death to israel" rhetoric as (merely) for "domestic consumption"

Iran and US always shakin fists over the table, shakin hands under it

http://live.jpost.com/Israel-News/Putin-warns-Israel-against-selling-arms-to-Ukraine-398497

The headline seems to be misleading, I think the gist of the speech is about not donating military aid rather than not selling arms.

Over 1100 have drowned this week trying to get from Libya to Europe:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/19/700-migrants-feared-dead-mediterranean-shipwreck-worst-yet

Hundreds of them were locked in the hold on the ship. Another boat sunk off the Greek island of Rhodes.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/islamic-state-files-show-structure-of-islamist-terror-group-a-1029274.html

the planning that went into the creation of the Islamic State and the role of a former officer in Saddam Hussein's intelligence service, with the main thesis being that behind the veneer of religious fanaticism was a master plan based on "tactical pragmatism." An excerpt:

>. . . when the architect of the Islamic State died, he left something behind that he had intended to keep strictly confidential: the blueprint for this state. It is a folder full of handwritten organizational charts, lists and schedules, which describe how a country can be gradually subjugated. SPIEGEL has gained exclusive access to the 31 pages, some consisting of several pages pasted together. They reveal a multilayered composition and directives for action, some already tested and others newly devised for the anarchical situation in Syria's rebel-held territories. In a sense, the documents are the source code of the most successful terrorist army in recent history.

so now that ISIS has supplanted al qaeda as the main islamic bugaboo is it safe to say that in many ways they seem ... worse?

generally speaking i agree that they're much worse - tho it seems like they're much, much less interested in symbolic attacks on the US than al-q is

agree that's the major difference, which is largely tactical. they're goals seem similar.

al-q succeeded in luring the usa into the unmitigated disaster in Iraq, which most definitely set the table for isis and made it possible. what makes isis worse than al-q is that they have assembled an effective army that can threaten regional governments, where al-q only assembled small, scattered forces. they both state that the restoration of the caliphate is their ultimate goal.

x-post

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/17/death-mediterranean-africans-migrant-sea-libya

Eritreans formed the second largest group of immigrants to Europe last year, after Syrians

http://news.yahoo.com/us-warship-heads-yemeni-waters-block-iranian-weapons-182036698--politics.html

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-21/obama-kept-iran-s-short-breakout-time-a-secret

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/04/saudi-led-coalition-begins-phase-yemen-campaign-150421155500641.html

Political deal next, as the bombing campaign had too much "collateral damage", and they don't want to send in troops

Other video images posted by fighters and antigovernment activists showed insurgents, including some with Fursan al-Haq, a Free Syrian Army group, using what appeared to be guided antitank missiles to blow up armored vehicles in the battles in Idlib Province in recent days.

Last year, the United States provided a small number of TOW antitank missiles to some rebel groups. But those groups were largely routed or co-opted by the Nusra Front, further complicating what was already a murky battlefield that has left American officials wary of providing more robust aid to insurgents.

Now, though, some opposition advocates say that Saudi Arabia and Turkey, longtime supporters of the uprising against Mr. Assad, are prepared to step up aid to insurgents with or without American support.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/26/world/middleeast/islamist-militants-capture-syrian-town.html?mabReward=CTM&moduleDetail=recommendations-1&module=Recommendation&action=click&contentCollection=Music®ion=Footer&configSection=article&isLoggedIn=true&src=recg&pgtype=article

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2015/0427/Why-Iran-is-standing-by-its-weakened-and-expensive-ally-Syria

“Outside the regime, Iran has no contacts in Syria. Syrian businessmen trade with other Arab countries,” says the former Syrian official, adding, ironically, that the billions of dollars handed by Iran to Syria “is financing Syrian imports from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, not from Iran.”

If the nascent deal between Iran and the international community over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program is concluded in the coming months, it could end the crippling sanctions on Tehran, swelling the country’s coffers once more. But the combination of a more assertive Sunni regional alliance against Assad and the desperate shortage of manpower to fend off anti-Assad rebels potentially bodes ill for the Syrian regime – and Iran’s reach into the Levant – in the long term, analysts say.

Hmmmmm....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/assads-regime-at-increasing-risk-amid-a-surge-of-rebel-advances/2015/04/26/c2742e22-ec32-11e4-8050-839e9234b303_story.html?hpid=z2

http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/04/27/is-the-house-of-saud-teetering-on-the-edge-of-collapse/?hpid=z2

lol I don't believe the House of Saud is in any serious danger of losing it's grip on power

Assad otoh ... well I'd be more inclined to believe them if we hadn't already heard those rumors before but we'll see. and of course at this point looks highly unlikely that any replacement regime in Syria would be much of an improvement.

http://rt.com/news/253929-saudi-bombs-yemen-runway/

what a mess