Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

breaking news: http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/03/26/GCC-states-to-repel-Houthi-aggression-in-Yemen-statement-.html

Warplanes of the Royal Saudi Air Force bombed the positions of Yemen’s Houthi militia and destroyed most of their air defenses, Al Arabiya News Channel reported early on Thursday.

Arab Gulf states had announced that they have decided to “repel Houthi aggression” in neighboring Yemen, following a request from the country’s President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi.

In their joint statement Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait said they "decided to repel Houthi militias, al-Qaeda and ISIS [Islamic State of Iraq and Syria] in the country.”

The Gulf states warned that the Houthi coup in Yemen represented a “major threat” to the region’s stability.

It also accused the Iranian-backed militia of conducting military drills on the border of Saudi Arabia, a leading member of the GCC, with “heavy weapons.”

In an apparent reference to Iran, the statement said the “Houthi militia is backed by regional powers in order for it be their base of influence.”

Arutz Sheva is totally untrustworthy so take w/ huge grain of salt but:
Source familiar with coalition talks reveals: Bibi is planning to form a unity government with Labor and leave Jewish Home out.

Iran demands immediate halt to military actions in Yemen (Reuters)

The Saudi "empire" versus the Iranian "empire".

I never used the "empire" term which is pretty loaded. but i think denying that there is a cold war being fought between the saudi + iranian states is pretty silly.

It gets silly when it becomes an overly simple Sunni vs Shia description, that often ignores some of what Sunni states have done. Some would also say its presumptous of the US which long had a western hegemony attitude, to act shocked when other countries try to do that around the world. But lets not also complicate it by admitting that Isis is Sunni and there's Al Queda, and that lumping dictatorships, military run countries, poor falling apart countries & various extremist groups all under either Sunni or Shia, and part of a series of like-minded states is kinda simplistic. Plus most of the writers preoccupied with this now,simply want to blame Iran alone, while remaining uninterested in the role of the Saudis and the growth of extremist groups.

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-us-intelligence-yemen-20150325-story.html#page=1

Secret files held by Yemeni security forces that contain details of American intelligence operations in the country have been looted by Iran-backed militia leaders, exposing names of confidential informants and plans for U.S.-backed counter-terrorism strikes, U.S. officials say.

I think Shia + Sunni are a kinda easy organizing principle in the sense that they often indicate who is being funded by whom (whom is being funded by who?) - like Houthis obv have an ideological affinity with Iran, okay. Shia Iraqis are closely associated w/ Iranian govt. Al-Q have an ideological affinity w/ Saudi Wahhabism. But there are just as dramatic exceptions. Hamas is funded by Iran but is a Sunni org. Alawites are Shia but idiosyncratically so. So it's not something that is definitive. It makes more sense to say that there are two major formations in the area that tend to (but not exclusively) fall along partisan theological lines but that aren't defined by those ideologies - the gulf monarchies (the GCC), and Iran.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that theology has a symbiotic relationship w/ politics, but I don't feel comfortable saying that theology determines politics (like radical right-wingers tend to argue) or that politics determine theology (like the left pushes).

The thing is, the prism of seeing ME as a cold war between Gulf Monarchies and Iran, might be the way to look at it that makes Iran most sympathetic at all. Like, why are we taking the side of the fanatic, opressive, reactionary Gulf Monarchies? It makes no sense.

Of course, it's more complex than that. Wasn't the thing Saud + UAE + Egypt vs Qatar + Turkey some months ago?

From a human rights perspective, none of them are sympathetic

We make far more money out of one side.

there has been some friction between Sauds + Qatar, esp regarding the latter funding radical groups that the former wasn't on board w/ but my impression was that it was more like tension between nominal allies and not some kind of reconfiguration (as evidenced by the current GCC coalition).

re Iran i do believe that they're natural allies to the west - esp the more educated urban pop in Tehran - and i think it's really unfortunate that it hasn't aligned that way but practically speaking you have a regime predicated on a 'Death to the West' platform w/ strong ties to Russia, support for various regional actors undermining stability (which obv Sunnis are also responsible for), and a sometimes rogue nuclear program. even if khamenei wanted to sidle up to the US, could his regime survive undermining its foundational ideological principles?

a regime predicated on a 'Death to the West' platform

tbf this predication is largely the result of perfectly understandable resentment built up over decades of the US maintaining a puppet regime in the country.

realignments do happen occasionally (remember when we were talking about Russia as an ally for awhile, pre-Putin?) but whether one is in the cards here, eh if so it's a fair ways away

Iran, Saudi Arabia’s regional rival and the Houthis’ main ally, denounced the assault as an American-backed attempt “to foment civil war in Yemen or disintegrate the country.” Houthi-controlled television channels broadcast footage of dead bodies and wounded civilians, blaming “American-backed aggression.”

What, no-one's blamed Israel yet?

everyone knows the US is really a Zionist Occupied Government

Houthis are soon going to discover what the FSA has known for a couple years now - that no one cares about pictures of dead bodies unless you can blame them on Israel

Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom
US praises US ally for bombing US-equipped militia aligned with US foe who is partnering with US to fight another US-equipped militia

@pareene
I'm rooting for the authoritarian monarchy to beat the theocratic dictatorship in the war

no one cares about pictures of dead bodies unless you can blame them on Israel

dude stop it

isolationism forevah, btw

yeah, what he said

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-orpQMN6oJow/VRQvPpjOjzI/AAAAAAAAoeI/w6gbGkkwxU4/s1600/What%2BIran%2BWon’t%2BSay%2B2.png

Egypt Says It May Send Troops to Yemen to Fight Houthis

hey Mordy have you noticed that Iraqi Shi'ite militias do not seem to be v impressed with Obama's "pro-Shi'a" policy

I did lol that now we r bombing Tikrit for the Shia militias and not only are they not going to participate but they'll badmouth the U.S. while they sit out

we're robbing them of their victory!

they were gonna be so victorious, you have no idea

feel like the big question w/ GCC is after they suppress houthis (assuming they're successful) does everyone just go home or do they go to eg syria

Israel releases withheld tax revenues to Palestinian Authority

Mordy, why is Shia supporter Obama providing intell to Sunni Saudi Arabia about Yemen?

Also x-post-- I don't see the Saudis/Gulf Coop Council going to Syria. Much tougher job than Yemen (which won't be easy either)

i would attribute all unfathomable Obama decisions in the Middle East to "hilarious US incompetence."

oh it's all p fathomable

i would guess his decision here was to support the somewhat stable in-exile President Hadi over the militant Houthi rebels bc of a bias towards the status quo, but it's just as likely that it was a good faith gesture to Sunni countries angry over the Iran negotiations.

btw Mordy, they found some of the missing Pentagon stuff, you can purchase to keep em outta the wrong hands.

https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/03/26/missing-military-tech-ended-ebay-craiglist/

Wow.

The US has long been supporting the Saudis, the US has had bases there in Yemen for awhile, the US had been working with Hadi for awhile, nothing surprising about it.

i see a lot of military generators in my industry and there are super undesirable. parts are too hard to replace, the tech doesn't work for most civilian implementations, etc. i don't know if there are similar issues w/ other military gear.

they look really nice tho

curmudgeon - you'd agree that this is about stability primarily, tho, right? like the drone campaigns that predated this invasion were targeting Al-Q members, not Houthi rebels (afaik? maybe there were some Houthi bombings as well? al-alwaki bombing was in yemen, tho). so essentially we're fighting two rebel groups in favor of the status quo. maybe i'm wrong tho and we've been fighting houthi all along?

it's certainly a little discombobulating to be bombing both houthis + al-q at the same time - at least in january there was an idea that the US might continue to bomb Al-Q w/ tacit Houthi support despite Iranian opposition to drone campaigns: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/25/world/middleeast/experts-see-signs-of-moderation-despite-houthis-harsh-slogans.html

i see a lot of military generators in my industry and there are super undesirable. parts are too hard to replace, the tech doesn't work for most civilian implementations, etc. i don't know if there are similar issues w/ other military gear.

― Mordy, Friday, March 27, 2015 4:01 PM (23 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

they look really nice tho

― Mordy, Friday, March 27, 2015 4:01 PM (23 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

american engineering at its finest. is it expensive? check. does it look nice? check. is it practical? nope. check.

it's certainly a little discombobulating to be bombing both houthis + al-q at the same time

Yemen had one dictator for awhile I think, then Hadi (who had been part of the prior dictatorial government but was perceived as more moderate). The US just wanted to keep droning Al-q and did not seem to perceive the Houthis as that big of a threat. CIA failure to see this maybe. Or is the US defense establishment gonna claim they were giving Hadi advice to be nice to all including the Houthis but Hadi didn't listen; just as they they similarly did so the government in Iraq and various governments in Egypt....

Standard operating procedure where US supports these types of authoritarian governments and then gets surprised about the amount of different groups that have issues with them

just as they they similarly CLAIM THEY HAVE DONE with the government in Iraq and various governments in Egypt....

i guess i just find the critique that obama's lacks a coherent, unifying strategy for the middle east to be resonant - as they continually seem caught off-guard by new developments. maybe US FP has always been thus, and as i've said before obama admin has never done anything as stupid as gwb's occupation of iraq so he's not the worst FP president ever. like hillary said tho, "Great nations need organizing principles, and ‘Don’t do stupid stuff’ is not an organizing principle."

"great nations need organizing principles" is exactly the kind of meaningless, unhelpful, abstract blather that foreign policy wanks adore and that actual ppl conducting real-world foreign policy tend to laugh at. when has u.s. foreign policy ever had an "organizing principle"?

does "money" count as an organizing principle

the Monroe Doctrine? (j/k, kind of)

a coherent, unifying strategy for the middle east

the middle east is an incoherent morass of conflicting agendas and ideologies that often are unpredictable and unstable, a "coherent, unifying strategy" is not possible

applying any kind of consistent principle will immediately lead to direct conflict with one faction or another

an organizing principle could be as simple as "constrain russia's ability to annex parts of predominately ethnic-russian europe" - just some idea that they have an objective w/ some coherence. i have no idea what their objective is. sometimes it seems isolationist, but then they conduct huge drone wars + air bombings in MENA. is it pro-stability? american actions in ukraine before the revolution, support for anti-mubarak protesters, said drone bombings, etc suggest not. stopping atrocities? in libya yes, in syria no. rapprochement w/ iran, or reaffirming traditional sunni + israel alliances in middle east? god, who really knows.