Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

Gee whizzums!

In its campaign across northern Syria and Iraq, the jihadist group Islamic State has been using ammunition from the United States and other countries that have been supporting the regional security forces fighting the group, according to new field data gathered by a private arms-tracking organization.

The data, part of a larger sample of captured arms and cartridges in Syria and Iraq, carries an implicit warning for policy makers and advocates of intervention.

It suggests that ammunition transferred into Syria and Iraq to help stabilize governments has instead passed from the governments to the jihadists, helping to fuel the Islamic State’s rise and persistent combat power. Rifle cartridges from the United States, the sample shows, have played a significant role...

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/06/world/isis-ammunition-is-shown-to-have-origins-in-us-and-china.html

Turkey still holding to demands before it will help in border town Kobane, it appears.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-frustration-rises-as-turkey-withholds-military-help-from-besieged-kobane/2014/10/08/311cb190-4f0e-11e4-babe-e91da079cb8a_story.html

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29570734

The UN special envoy to Syria has warned that up to 700 people, mainly elderly, are still trapped in the Syrian border town of Kobane.

http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/islamic-state-officially-admits-to-enslaving-yazidi-women/

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/10/14/how_to_squander_home_field_advantage_islamic_state_turkey_ebola_climate_change

my feeling about obama these days is that his exemplary work on some domestic issues (economy + healthcare) eclipses the horror that has been his foreign affairs policies which can't possibly appeal to hawks, doves, or realists.

http://972mag.com/facing-increased-right-wing-violence-israeli-leftists-learn-to-fight-back/97486/

The rising violence of the extreme right in the streets led to the establishment of several organized groups.

The anarchist “Achdut” group organized the “Black Guard,” which trained in self-defense and Krav Maga. Other activists established “Antifa 972″ (no relation to the magazine), a shorthand for “anti-fascists.” At least two other groups, which asked not to be included in the article, also began training and taking part in self-defense activities.

The activists in each of these groups stress that there is no one organization, nor is there any attempt to build political power or a new movement. They also hope that this is not a new trend, but rather a need to respond and protect from new dangers that have become a reality for Palestinians and left-wing activists in the streets. All in all, including the Jerusalemites from the “Local Guard,” the members of the groups amount to approximately 100 people.

"We don’t want these assaults to happen again. We don’t want to be abused children – we want to respect ourselves. We don’t want to attack Baruch Marzel’s headquarters or anything, but we believe the victimhood of the Left must end here.”

While the US military was busy elsewhere, this went on:

The cost of turning against the Islamic State was made brutally apparent in the streets of a dusty backwater town in eastern Syria in early August. Over a three-day period, vengeful fighters shelled, beheaded, crucified and shot hundreds of members of the Shaitat tribe after they dared to rise up against the extremists.

By the time the killing stopped, 700 people were dead, activists and survivors say, making this the bloodiest single atrocity committed by the Islamic State in Syria since it declared its existence 18 months ago.

The little-publicized story of this failed tribal revolt in Abu Hamam, in Syria’s eastern Deir al-Zour province, illuminates the challenges that will confront efforts to persuade those living under Islamic State rule — in Iraq as well as Syria — to join the fight against the jihadist group, something U.S. officials say is essential if the campaign against the militants is to succeed.

The Abu Hamam area has now been abandoned, and many of the bodies remain uncollected, offering a chilling reminder to residents elsewhere of the fate that awaits those who dare rebel.

Just as powerful a message for those living under the militants’ iron fist was the almost complete international silence on the bloodbath.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syria-tribal-revolt-against-islamic-state-ignored-fueling-resentment/2014/10/20/25401beb-8de8-49f2-8e64-c1cfbee45232_story.html?hpid=z1

missed this when it first ran but it's good (written by an al-arabiya columnist):
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/09/the-barbarians-within-our-gates-111116.html

http://www.mediaite.com/print/aps-incredibly-misleading-headline-treats-jerusalem-train-attacker-as-victim/

Mordy, I guess i should read that Foreign policy link upthread before asking you to elaborate re your statement with the phrase eclipses the horror that has been his foreign affairs policies which can't possibly appeal to hawks, doves, or realists.

lol maybe that was a little hyperbolic i mean the guy is no dubya thank god

Oh...I was hoping reading that link will tell me what "realists" want, and what a "realist" pov is re US foreign policy.

i think every realist will have their own take but walt is generally good in FP for that sort of thing

i guess my larger gripe at the time was that alienating your allies is not an effective foreign policy strategy if you're an interventionist or a realist - and if you're an isolationist you can't be happy bc O keeps intervening abroad. it just seems incongruent to me - like he doesn't really have much of a fp strategy.

like "good, obama is being really harsh to our allies and telling them how it really is" like okay who does that benefit? maybe if you aren't planning on running missions in iraq + syria and dropping drones all over the middle east it's not such a big deal if you piss off the egyptians, turkish, israelis, saudis, etc. but if you plan on being so hands-on you are going to need some of these ppl to participate + work w/ you.

But Obama did not cut off military aid to Egypt; not sure what he has done that the Saudis could view as threatening; and re the Turks, are you comfortable with the games they have played re Kurds and Isis?

I think even "allies" though look to their own self-interests first and even if Obama had been even nicer to Turkey, they still would behave as they have.

Obama is clearly not an isolationist dove nor a hawk (to the degree that he would be sending troops everywhere), so he might argue that he himself is a realist, even if some would see him as more hawk-like clearly

like "good, obama is being really harsh to our allies and telling them how it really is" like okay who does that benefit?

Theoretically that benefits the US standing as some sort of examplar for good, and as a message to the people of those countries; even if it aggravates the leaderships of those countries. This is that realpolitik discussion that took place on another thread I think, re Egypt. Would Egypt turn on us if we cut off military aid?

So I skimmed that FP article about Obama being mean to our allies, especially Turkey, and the writer quotes a Wall Street Journal opinion for support (ugh). The FP article doesn't cite or discuss the various allegations re Turkey's stance, and seems a tad light.

Harper's November issue has a very, very good piece on ISIS

Saw Malian ngoni player Bassekou Kouyate and band Friday night in DC. Bassekou said,"Sharia's done with and over in Mali, please come and visit."

But this article says there's still issues:

http://allafrica.com/stories/201410281176.html

http://ottomansandzionists.com/2014/10/29/sticks-and-stones-may-break-my-bones-and-so-will-words/

- Israel instated next level apartheid by not allowing Palestinians on Israeli buses.
- Pull ambassador from Sweden because Sweden acknowledged Palestine as a nation state today
- "Swedish FM: Happy to send Israel FM Lieberman an IKEA flat pack to assemble. He'll see it requires a partner, cooperation and a good manual"

haha is that a real quote

It is! FM also said, less jokingly, that "many might feel us recognizing Palestine as a nation state is premature. But I fear in many ways it is already too late'

(FM quote comes courtesy of Barak Ravid, Haaretz journalist)

this is a really interested development re hezbollah:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/after-losing-1000-men-in-syria-hezbollah-builds-security-zone/

http://thediplomat.com/2014/10/india-chooses-israel-over-us-for-latest-defense-purchase/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-backed-syria-rebels-routed-by-fighters-linked-to-al-qaeda/2014/11/02/7a8b1351-8fb7-4f7e-a477-66ec0a0aaf34_story.html

uh oh

This story has a very "the frogurt is also cursed" feel to it.

Doh!

lmao these fantasies

http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2014/05/23/burning-the-steak/

Last fall I met up with an old friend in the security consulting business. We met for breakfast at an upscale hotel in the DC area. As he was having a second cup of coffee he leaned forward and said, “I’m going to say something crazy, but I can be frank with you.” He paused and added, “what we need is a new East India company.”

“Go on,” I said, mildly surprised. And he continued in a lowered tone, but not without looking first to the left and right.

According to his own bio Fernandez played a role in the anti-Marcos movement in the Phillipines. Clearly he has buddies who know that everywhere in DC, especially upscale hotels, one needs to keep their plans for the US to save Iraq and Afghanistan secret. That Roger L. Simon column on that site engages in a different sort of fantasy, although more typical--Obama paranoia

Opium trade, anyone?

http://www.timesofisrael.com/marmara-case-closed-ramallah-learns-going-to-icc-not-easy-as-abc/

good news everybody:
http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/11/07/us_troops_in_iraq_will_double

I thought this was a pretty incredible story:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/28/magazine/theo-padnos-american-journalist-on-being-kidnapped-tortured-and-released-in-syria.html?ref=magazine

(Reuters) - The highest-ranking U.S. military officer said on Thursday that Israel went to "extraordinary lengths" to limit civilian casualties in the recent war in Gaza and that the Pentagon had sent a team to see what lessons could be learned from the operation.

Army General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged recent reports criticizing civilian deaths during the 50-day Gaza war this year but told an audience in New York he thought the Israel Defense Forces "did what they could" to avoid civilian casualties.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/11/09/iran_s_khamenei_israel_must_be_annihilated.html

conservative Israeli prez Rivlin pays a price for endorsing civility

Around Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, Rivlin made a video in which he sat next to an eleven-year-old Palestinian Israeli boy from Jaffa who had been bullied: the two held up cards to the camera calling for empathy, decency, and harmony. “We are exactly the same,” one pair read. A couple of weeks ago, Rivlin visited the Arab town of Kafr Qasim to apologize for the massacre, in 1956, of forty-eight Palestinian workers and children by Israeli border guards....

“I’ve been called a ‘lying little Jew’ by my critics,” Rivlin told the Knesset recently. “ ‘Damn your name, Arab agent,’ ‘Go be President in Gaza,’ ‘disgusting sycophant,’ ‘rotten filth,’ ‘lowest of the low,’ ‘traitor,’ ‘President of Hezbollah.’ These are just a few of the things that have been said to me in the wake of events I’ve attended and speeches I’ve made. I must say that I’ve been horrified by this thuggishness that has permeated the national dialogue.”

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/11/17/one-state-reality

if this isn't proof for the coming of the messiah... http://www.algemeiner.com/2014/11/12/suha-arafat-calls-for-recognition-of-israel-no-one-can-doubt-israels-existence-video/

https://scontent-a-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/1920541_715427630657_6172790476978020386_n.jpg?oh=f2ca7d5b04d40f590b41161054ff1c67&oe=54DB355D

whaaaaat

bahahahahaha

....

curmudgeon, re what we were discussing above:

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/a-withering-critique-of-president-obamas-national-security-council/382477/2/

DR: If Obama had any material management or foreign-policy experience prior to coming in to office or if he had the character of our stronger leaders on these issues—notably a more strategic than tactical orientation, more trust in his team, less risk aversion, etc.—she would be better off, as would we all. But his flaws are compounded by a system that lets him pick and empower those around him. So, if he chooses to surround himself with a small team of "true believers" who won't challenge him as all leaders need to be challenged, if he picks campaign staffers that maintain campaign mode, if he over-empowers political advisors at the expense of those with national-security experience, that takes his weaknesses and multiplies them by those of the team around him.

And whatever Susan Rice's many strengths are, she is ill-suited for the job she has. She is not seen as an honest broker. She has big gaps in her international experience and understanding—Asia. She is needlessly combative and has alienated key members of her staff, the cabinet, and overseas leaders. She is also not strategic and is reactive like her boss. So whereas the system does have the capability of offsetting the weaknesses of a president, if he is surrounded by strong advisors to whom he listens and who he empowers to do their jobs, it can also reinforce and exacerbate those weaknesses—as it is doing now.

"Whatever Susan Rice's many strengths are, she is ill-suited for the job she has."
There have been signs of dysfunction in this administration from earlier. Jim Jones was never really given a chance as the president's first national security advisor, being cut out by a small group of former Obama campaign members. The first Afghan review was convoluted. And the memoirs of Panetta, Gates, Clinton, Vali Nasr, and others pointed to other issues, whether with the president, or with exclusion of cabinet members. But matters began to deteriorate last year.

JG: Go into this dysfunction you're talking about in greater depth. Is the “red line” with Syria crisis the moment you thought that the current process was dysfunctional?

DR: Even before the Syria red-line fiasco, there was confusion around how to respond to the overthrow of the Morsi regime in Egypt—marked by poor communications between the State Department and the White House. You also had the fumbled response to the National Security Agency (NSA) scandal that involved lying to and alienating allies; the very weak response to Putin in Crimea that also involved miscommunications between the White House and the State Department; the failure to respond to ISIS when it was clearly emerging as a major threat almost a year ago (remember, it took Fallujah in the beginning of 2014); the self-inflicted wound of touting the Bowe Bergdahl release; and the president's own communications gaffes associated with the process, from his assertion that his guiding principle was "don't do stupid shit" to his assertion that he didn't have a strategy versus ISIS. And, most recently, we have the poorly managed, strategy-less mission against ISIS that is unfocused, inadequate to the challenges, and has already revealed major rifts with the Defense Department's military and civilian leadership.

All administrations make errors. No process is perfect. But here, everything you look for in a high-functioning process—a national security advisor seen as an honest broker among cabinet departments; the full inclusion and empowerment of the cabinet to harness the resources of the administration; the formulation of good policy options for the president; the effective implementation of the choices the president makes; the effective communication of White House positions; the formulation of strategic perspectives (a role really only the White House can do); the effective separation of political and national-security decision-making processes ... good management, good execution, good results—all of that has been missing or disappointing.

good management, good execution, good results—all of that has been missing or disappointing.

lol would love to hear which president's foreign policy team delivered on these counts

like, ever

rothkopf is much less left wing than you, shakes, but he does rate some others:

Jeffrey Goldberg: You're an expert on the organization and purpose of the NSC. Why are most national security advisors—Brent Scowcroft being one obvious exception—perceived to be failures? Susan Rice is in the barrel right now, but she's not the first.

David Rothkopf: I'm not sure I agree with that characterization. While the job is tough and a clear lightning rod for criticism given its importance, proximity to the president, and the number of hot-button issues its occupants must tackle, it really can't be said that most of its occupants can be perceived as failures. Rice's immediate predecessor, Tom Donilon, was certainly not perceived that way—getting a mixed grade, perhaps, but hardly a failing one. His predecessor, Jim Jones, was not seen as a success, but that was largely because he was undercut by a coterie of staffers close to the president and, indirectly, by a president who didn't fully empower him or back him up. Steve Hadley was quite successful, actually, as Bush's national security advisor, helping with the benefit of a largely new team elsewhere in the administration to enable Bush to change course in his last couple of years and finish much stronger than he had started.

Condi Rice oversaw a deeply troubled period in U.S. foreign policy in Bush's first term, but that was largely attributed to the president enabling others in the administration, notably the vice president and the secretary of defense, to gain too much traction and to backdoor the interagency process. Sandy Berger was quite a successful national security advisor in the Clinton second term. Tony Lake, not as successful—he was, like Rice and Jones, an example of a "learning curve" national security advisor, overseeing the process while his boss was getting his sea legs—but he was not seen as a failure. His greatest challenge, in some respects, was that his predecessor, Scowcroft, was seen as the gold standard in the job. You can go back further through history and pick out others who were seen as capable, like Colin Powell or Frank Carlucci, and some who were seen as particularly strong, like Zbigniew Brzezinski and Henry Kissinger. So it is a mixed bag.

fucking Kissinger

rmde

otm otm otm