Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

the french have a warship to sell too!

I wonder if an endless war against militant Islamic insurgents is tax deductible?

Read the letter from 34 reserve soldiers who have served in Unit 8200 explaining why they refuse to serve in Palestinian territories

I wonder if an endless war against militant Islamic insurgents is tax deductible?

― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, September 11, 2014

Alas, only for the industries working with the Pentagon.

Charles Krauthammer's unhappy. Surprise surprise. He insists that Bush had a bigger coalition in Iraq and he's mad at Obama of course for not being macho enough:

And beyond the strategy’s halfhearted substance is its author’s halfhearted tone. Obama’s reluctance and ambivalence are obvious.

According to Agence France-Presse, ISIS and a number of moderate and hard-line rebel groups have agreed not to fight each other so that they can focus on taking down the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Other sources say the signatories include a major U.S. ally linked to the Free Syrian Army. Moreover, the leader of the Free Syrian Army said Saturday that the group would not take part in U.S. plans for destroying the Islamic State until it got assurances on toppling Assad.

That's from Huff Post

I love it when a plan comes together

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/14/world/middleeast/islamic-state-says-it-has-executed-david-cawthorne-haines-british-aid-worker.html

Keeping their brutal rep intact. Sad.

Meanwhile the guessing game re what will happen in Syria to Assad and Isis and various regions of that country.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/15/world/middleeast/syrian-leaders-see-opportunities-and-risks-in-us-strikes-against-isis-on-their-soil.html?_r=0

well

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/chelsea-manning-isis-strategy

good on hamas:
http://www.jta.org/2014/09/17/news-opinion/israel-middle-east/hamas-arrests-cell-that-fired-mortar-at-israel-despite-cease-fire

A new propaganda video released by IS, with captured journalist John Cantlie (no beheading). It's sureal to see... He's addressing the 'you're probably thinking I'm doing this because otherwise I'd die' think we indeed think. Yet he's so calm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Isl5hMEW1FM

NSA shares raw intelligence including Americans' data with Israel

• Secret deal places no legal limits on use of data by Israelis
• Only official US government communications protected
• Agency insists it complies with rules governing privacy
• Read the NSA and Israel's 'memorandum of understanding'

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/11/nsa-americans-personal-data-israel-documents

That John Cantlie guy was kidnapped back in 2012, shot, beaten, threatened with being beheaded, and then finally rescued. I can't find any information on how he managed to get captured again. I find it difficult to understand how someone would be prepared to go back into that kind of situation. It was the same with James Foley. Totally baffling to me.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/variety/2014/09/18/ISIS-wife-blogs-on-romance-and-martyrdom-.html

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-D0PmiKXBl4s/VBrZ1OxxBPI/AAAAAAAAjE8/bqv21t0_TzU/s1600/dear%2Bmujahid.jpg

here's her tumblr:
http://diary-of-a-muhajirah.tumblr.com

AP story:

About half of Iraq's army is incapable of partnering effectively with the U.S. to roll back the Islamic State group's territorial gains in western and northern Iraq, and the other half needs to be partially rebuilt with U.S. training and additional equipment, the top U.S. military officer said Wednesday.

Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a former wartime commander of U.S. training programs in Iraq, said a renewed U.S. training effort might revive the issue of gaining legal immunity from Iraqi prosecution for those U.S. troops who are training the Iraqis. The previous Iraqi government refused to grant immunity for U.S. troops who might have remained as trainers after the U.S. military mission ended in December 2011.

I wonder how much money was spent training Iraqi troops years ago, and will this be any different this time without clear signals from the government that all ethnic groups will be treated equally

dempsey is pushing for troops on the ground iirc

Right.

It was like 25-50b to train the Iraqi army that evaporated and served as a munitions depo for ISIS

Business is always brisk in the military industrial complex.

So some of the same generals in charge back then and still in charge now are openly questioning their Commander in Chief's plans not to use US troops on the ground or in a closer on the ground advisory role. It's possible they could be right, but I thought they were supposed to only raise those views internally. No Republican President now so they feel comfortable going public.

their jealous of the drones having all the fun

they're

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/19/world/meast/isis-threat/

No help for Kurds in Syria yet from anyone (nothing from moderate rebels or Western drones)

The Syrian Kurdish town of Kobani (Ayn al-Arab in Arabic) is an island, surrounded by ISIS on three fronts and the Turkish border to the north.

The town was already mostly blockaded by ISIS, but in the past three days some 60 nearby villages fell under ISIS control, according to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or "Islamic State," as the group calls itself, took 39 villages on Friday alone as Kurdish forces withdrew from their positions, the Observatory said.

Turkey opens border to 45,000 Kurds fleeing Isis in Syria

Eight crossing points opened to allow in people fleeing Islamic State fighters who have seized control of 60 villages near border

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/20/turkey-opens-borders-45000-kurds-fleeing-isis-syria

The Islamic State jihadist organization has recruited more than 6,000 new fighters since America began targeting the group with air strikes last month, according to the U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

At least 1,300 of the new recruits are said to be foreigners, who have joined IS from outside the swathes of Syria and Iraq that it controls.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/1.616730

Ok, I admit I did not know that many Kurds were living in Syria.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/22/world/meast/syria-civil-war/

Istanbul (CNN) -- The sudden, massive flood of refugees fleeing the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria is unlike any other displacement in the 3½-year Syrian conflict.

As many as 200,000 people have left the area surrounding the Syrian Kurdish city of Kobani, also known as Ayn al-Arab, in just four days as ISIS advances into the area, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Monday. Most have gone into Turkey, the London-based monitoring group said.

Turkey's semiofficial Anadolu news agency and the United Nations said 130,000 Syrian refugees have entered Turkey since Friday.

But the unprecedented surge that broke loose Friday has slowed, as Turkey reduced the number of open crossings from eight or nine to just two, said Ariane Rummery, a spokeswoman for the U.N. refugee agency.

Processing the refugees is also taking time.

I've never known how reliable a source SOHR is. Interesting back-story, though:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/10/world/middleeast/the-man-behind-the-casualty-figures-in-syria.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Oh yeah, I remember that 2013 article on that guy. I guess they're not gonna write the articles like this:

As many as 200,000 people have left the area surrounding the Syrian Kurdish city of Kobani, ACCORDING TO ONE MAN IN COVENTRY, ENGLAND

It will be very interesting to watch Ergodan's role in the drama. Turkey has denied use of US airbase facilities in country against IS, made clear they won't intervene with their own army (the largest in the middle east, and second only to Israel's in equipment/training), and are the middleman for IS oil exports.

Turkey clamps down on Syria border after Kurdish unrest (BBC). Turkish riot control against Turkish Kurds seeking to join Syrian Kurd opposition to IS.
The Turks to ISIS: Let’s Make a Deal (The Daily Beast)

Read enough at places like Col. W. Patrick Lang's blog, and one gets the strong sense that the Turkish MIT intelligence agency has a relation to IS much like that of Pakistan's ISI has to the Taliban, subtly nudging it it a a proxy in vs. long-time rivals in Syria, Kurdish & Shia Iraq, and even Iran.

Former Green Beret Lang's blog is interesting but this item in his bio has me rolling my eyes:

For his service in DIA, he was awarded the “Presidential Rank of Distinguished Executive.” This is the equivalent of a British knighthood

lol

military guys and their shiny bits of metal

http://www.clickhole.com/article/5-ways-isis-can-reduce-its-carbon-footprint-1053

Ha ha.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/23/world/middleeast/us-and-allies-hit-isis-targets-in-syria.html?_r=0

American fighter jets and armed Predator and Reaper drones, flying alongside warplanes from several Arab allies, struck a broad array of targets in territory controlled by the militants, known as the Islamic State. American defense officials said the targets included weapons supplies, depots, barracks and buildings the militants use for command and control. Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired from United States Navy ships in the region.

...Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates took part in the strikes, American officials said, ...The airstrikes in Syria, so far, come without the benefit of a large ground force to capitalize on gains they make. While some Syrian opposition groups fighting the Islamic State militants may be able to move into a few cleared areas, administration officials acknowledged on Monday that it was doubtful that the Free Syrian Army, the opposition group most preferred by the United States, would be able to take control of major sections of Islamic State territory, at least not until it has been better trained — which will take place over the next year.

Iraqi army failing again:

If the survivors’ accounts are correct, it would make Sunday the most disastrous day for the Iraqi army since several divisions collapsed in the wake of the Islamic State’s capture of the northern city of Mosul amid its cross-country sweep in June.

In any case, the chaotic incident has highlighted shortcomings in an army that the United States has spent billions of dollars training and equipping, and it has further undermined the force’s reliability as a partner as President Obama expands airstrikes into provinces including Anbar.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/islamic-state-attack-on-iraqi-base-leaves-hundreds-missing-shows-army-weaknesses/2014/09/22/9a8b9e4d-0fea-4650-8816-5e720dbffd04_story.html?hpid=z2

"It was one thing to attack in Iraq, where you had a government that wanted us to," Beinhart said. "But Congress did not vote for U.S. airstrikes in Syria and we don't have a government requesting us to do that."

What are U.S. lawmakers saying?

When the strikes began, Congress had already left town to campaign for the midterm elections, and most of the reaction came from those who had pressed the administration to act sooner. Privately, many of them conceded they were relieved not to have to take a vote on a controversial issue just weeks before voters went to the polls in November.

from cnn

x-post--legal authority for US Syrian actions seems attenuated, but hey no need to think about it before November elections

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/world/middleeast/israel.html?rref=world/middleeast&module=Ribbon&version=context®ion=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Middle%20East&pgtype=article

Israeli troops closed a significant chapter in the summer’s bloody escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on Tuesday by cornering and killing the two men they suspected of kidnapping and murdering three Israeli teenagers in June.

Israeli military officials said the two suspects, Marwan Qawasmeh, 29, and Amer Abu Aisha, 33, had been holed up for a week in a two-story building in the West Bank city of Hebron, and refused to surrender when Israeli special forces units surrounded the building before dawn. Lt. Col. Peter Lerner, a military spokesman, said the two men “came out shooting.” One was “killed on the spot,” he said, while the other fell back into the destroyed building, where the troops then tossed grenades.

The two men, who were affiliated with Hamas, the militant Islamist movement, were hailed as heroes at their funerals in Hebron on Tuesday afternoon. Hundreds of mourners who walked behind the white-shrouded body of Mr. Abu Aisha shouted, “Go on, Hamas, you’re our dignity, and we’re your bullets.”

http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/turks-leave-for-family-friendly-islamic-state-1.304677

not a single post about Khorosan yet? How am I supposed to get to know the Existential Threat to the US of the Week?

oh look David Brooks' son is in the IDF

x-post ha

Here you go

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Sep-24/271841-pentagon-says-still-investigating-if-khorasan-leader-killed-in-syria.ashx#axzz3EFvXNTXj

plus that green beret Lang blog upthread mentions them with a sarcastic tone. Fun reading

Brutal as they are, ISIS displays a certain competence at what they do. Of course, they only know how to recruit and how to conquer. They don't have any more notion about how to govern than a cat does. But they are gangbusters at conquest.

Alternatively, Iraq doesn't exist as a nation and the predominantly Shia army simply evaporates under fire (certainly true since the late 80s). No amount of training, weapons or money will fix this. Some peoples are simply not cut out for the war business.

The biggest surprise of the whole conflict has been how poorly the once fearsome Peshmurga (Kurd militia) have performed. Perhaps they've grown soft since '03.

thats fairly trite reasoning

baathist forces preferring not to be killed by overwhelmingly superior forces is not comparabale to current iraqi forces run as a sinecure or an enrichment scheme by friends of the administration

neither they or the peshmerga have any sort of ethically locatabale martial capability else you are recalling imperial british racial theories