Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

I dunno, it's kind of a tough call. Not the US staying out of it part - there is no reason we should be fucking around over there anymore, we should learn our fucking lesson for once - but dismissing or ignoring what IS is up to just because "they aren't threatening anything beyond two failed states." I mean, that's fair, as far as it goes. But people ignored the Taliban for years, too, despite all the stories of them murdering women and children, crazy proclamations of caliphates, beheadings in stadiums, blowing up ancient statues, etc. In the end the problem turned out to be not the Taliban, per se, but them harboring a greater, better organized threat. So yeah, US is stupid to get further involved in this, we should let the regional powers, as such, deal with it. But at the same time, probably smart to keep a close eye on what's going on.

Well yeah. There is a wide range of (better) options between ignoring them and full military engagement.

too bad rolling mena 2014 doesn't set policy :(

on the anniversary of 9/11 too - auspicious

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/9/10/nato-karzai-afghanistan.html

There is a wide range of (better) options between ignoring them and full military engagement.

― Οὖτις, Thursday, September 11, 2014

The softy human-rights never again a holocaust part of me cares for people oppressed by Isis and the Taliban and worries a bit about American isolationism, but the realist side of me recognizes how difficult and messy it is to get involved and to decide where to get involved. Thus I'm for the in-between role Obama is currently pushing.

Honest question, from the perspective of someone living in a perpetual police-the-world country: what does the rest of the world make of this stuff? Do they give it lip service but do nothing? Is Europe involved in the IS discussion? Anyone else? Or is this another case of letting America dangle/isolate itself? I've not read a lot of editorial/public opinion on this stuff from other countries.

Europe involved in the IS discussion?

The fact that the jihadist in the two beheading videos apparently has an English accent has meant that England is deeply involved in the IS discussion

Lots of discussion about this topic in Germany, with the urge to intervene but naturally compliant to the non-combative-action agenda, and some surprising results (Peshmerga will be fitted with weaponry supposedly worth 70mio €, an unprecedented action in German post-war history). Talks about strategic support of US campaign running as well.

also lots of discussion in France. Le Monde notes that France has already agreed to support the USA in an aerial campaign against the IS. Naturally Le Figaro goes further: "One cannot say, under the pretext of the errors of the Americans in 2033, that it is forbidden to us to use force against the Islamic troops. Against this menace, it will of course be necessary to use it. Violence is legitimate. Even Pope Francis has judged it "licit"."

wow - even the head of the catholic church is in favor of attacking the muslim state? shocking!

lol

looking forward to the American mistakes of 2033 btw

Le Figaro is a right-leaning paper, in case that wasn't obvious. But yeah.

Meanwhile in Syria, a writer for Greenwald's the Intercept reports and opines, via Al Jazeera:

Obama’s non-Iranian options look particularly bleak after yesterday’s shocking assassination of one of Syria’s top anti-ISIS rebel commanders and dozens of his lieutenants. The commander, Hassan Abboud, was killed in an explosion during an underground meeting. So many members of his group, Ahrar al-Sham, were killed in the explosion that it’s now unclear whether it will continue to exist and provide a key counterweight to ISIS. Ahrar al-Sham was one of the best organized Syrian opposition factions aside from ISIS

https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/09/10/americas-incomprehensible-isis-policy/

quick find some other "moderates" to sell weapons to

The cynic in me feels like this is just another opportunity for the US to export billions worth of military hardware. The Iraqi army flushing 25b worth of hardware down the toilet is probably seen as a business opportunity to these fools

the french have a warship to sell too!

I wonder if an endless war against militant Islamic insurgents is tax deductible?

Read the letter from 34 reserve soldiers who have served in Unit 8200 explaining why they refuse to serve in Palestinian territories

I wonder if an endless war against militant Islamic insurgents is tax deductible?

― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, September 11, 2014

Alas, only for the industries working with the Pentagon.

Charles Krauthammer's unhappy. Surprise surprise. He insists that Bush had a bigger coalition in Iraq and he's mad at Obama of course for not being macho enough:

And beyond the strategy’s halfhearted substance is its author’s halfhearted tone. Obama’s reluctance and ambivalence are obvious.

According to Agence France-Presse, ISIS and a number of moderate and hard-line rebel groups have agreed not to fight each other so that they can focus on taking down the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Other sources say the signatories include a major U.S. ally linked to the Free Syrian Army. Moreover, the leader of the Free Syrian Army said Saturday that the group would not take part in U.S. plans for destroying the Islamic State until it got assurances on toppling Assad.

That's from Huff Post

I love it when a plan comes together

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/14/world/middleeast/islamic-state-says-it-has-executed-david-cawthorne-haines-british-aid-worker.html

Keeping their brutal rep intact. Sad.

Meanwhile the guessing game re what will happen in Syria to Assad and Isis and various regions of that country.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/15/world/middleeast/syrian-leaders-see-opportunities-and-risks-in-us-strikes-against-isis-on-their-soil.html?_r=0

well

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/chelsea-manning-isis-strategy

good on hamas:
http://www.jta.org/2014/09/17/news-opinion/israel-middle-east/hamas-arrests-cell-that-fired-mortar-at-israel-despite-cease-fire

A new propaganda video released by IS, with captured journalist John Cantlie (no beheading). It's sureal to see... He's addressing the 'you're probably thinking I'm doing this because otherwise I'd die' think we indeed think. Yet he's so calm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Isl5hMEW1FM

NSA shares raw intelligence including Americans' data with Israel

• Secret deal places no legal limits on use of data by Israelis
• Only official US government communications protected
• Agency insists it complies with rules governing privacy
• Read the NSA and Israel's 'memorandum of understanding'

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/11/nsa-americans-personal-data-israel-documents

That John Cantlie guy was kidnapped back in 2012, shot, beaten, threatened with being beheaded, and then finally rescued. I can't find any information on how he managed to get captured again. I find it difficult to understand how someone would be prepared to go back into that kind of situation. It was the same with James Foley. Totally baffling to me.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/variety/2014/09/18/ISIS-wife-blogs-on-romance-and-martyrdom-.html

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-D0PmiKXBl4s/VBrZ1OxxBPI/AAAAAAAAjE8/bqv21t0_TzU/s1600/dear%2Bmujahid.jpg

here's her tumblr:
http://diary-of-a-muhajirah.tumblr.com

AP story:

About half of Iraq's army is incapable of partnering effectively with the U.S. to roll back the Islamic State group's territorial gains in western and northern Iraq, and the other half needs to be partially rebuilt with U.S. training and additional equipment, the top U.S. military officer said Wednesday.

Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a former wartime commander of U.S. training programs in Iraq, said a renewed U.S. training effort might revive the issue of gaining legal immunity from Iraqi prosecution for those U.S. troops who are training the Iraqis. The previous Iraqi government refused to grant immunity for U.S. troops who might have remained as trainers after the U.S. military mission ended in December 2011.

I wonder how much money was spent training Iraqi troops years ago, and will this be any different this time without clear signals from the government that all ethnic groups will be treated equally

dempsey is pushing for troops on the ground iirc

Right.

It was like 25-50b to train the Iraqi army that evaporated and served as a munitions depo for ISIS

Business is always brisk in the military industrial complex.

So some of the same generals in charge back then and still in charge now are openly questioning their Commander in Chief's plans not to use US troops on the ground or in a closer on the ground advisory role. It's possible they could be right, but I thought they were supposed to only raise those views internally. No Republican President now so they feel comfortable going public.

their jealous of the drones having all the fun

they're

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/19/world/meast/isis-threat/

No help for Kurds in Syria yet from anyone (nothing from moderate rebels or Western drones)

The Syrian Kurdish town of Kobani (Ayn al-Arab in Arabic) is an island, surrounded by ISIS on three fronts and the Turkish border to the north.

The town was already mostly blockaded by ISIS, but in the past three days some 60 nearby villages fell under ISIS control, according to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or "Islamic State," as the group calls itself, took 39 villages on Friday alone as Kurdish forces withdrew from their positions, the Observatory said.

Turkey opens border to 45,000 Kurds fleeing Isis in Syria

Eight crossing points opened to allow in people fleeing Islamic State fighters who have seized control of 60 villages near border

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/20/turkey-opens-borders-45000-kurds-fleeing-isis-syria

The Islamic State jihadist organization has recruited more than 6,000 new fighters since America began targeting the group with air strikes last month, according to the U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

At least 1,300 of the new recruits are said to be foreigners, who have joined IS from outside the swathes of Syria and Iraq that it controls.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/1.616730

Ok, I admit I did not know that many Kurds were living in Syria.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/22/world/meast/syria-civil-war/

Istanbul (CNN) -- The sudden, massive flood of refugees fleeing the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria is unlike any other displacement in the 3½-year Syrian conflict.

As many as 200,000 people have left the area surrounding the Syrian Kurdish city of Kobani, also known as Ayn al-Arab, in just four days as ISIS advances into the area, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Monday. Most have gone into Turkey, the London-based monitoring group said.

Turkey's semiofficial Anadolu news agency and the United Nations said 130,000 Syrian refugees have entered Turkey since Friday.

But the unprecedented surge that broke loose Friday has slowed, as Turkey reduced the number of open crossings from eight or nine to just two, said Ariane Rummery, a spokeswoman for the U.N. refugee agency.

Processing the refugees is also taking time.

I've never known how reliable a source SOHR is. Interesting back-story, though:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/10/world/middleeast/the-man-behind-the-casualty-figures-in-syria.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Oh yeah, I remember that 2013 article on that guy. I guess they're not gonna write the articles like this:

As many as 200,000 people have left the area surrounding the Syrian Kurdish city of Kobani, ACCORDING TO ONE MAN IN COVENTRY, ENGLAND

It will be very interesting to watch Ergodan's role in the drama. Turkey has denied use of US airbase facilities in country against IS, made clear they won't intervene with their own army (the largest in the middle east, and second only to Israel's in equipment/training), and are the middleman for IS oil exports.

Turkey clamps down on Syria border after Kurdish unrest (BBC). Turkish riot control against Turkish Kurds seeking to join Syrian Kurd opposition to IS.
The Turks to ISIS: Let’s Make a Deal (The Daily Beast)

Read enough at places like Col. W. Patrick Lang's blog, and one gets the strong sense that the Turkish MIT intelligence agency has a relation to IS much like that of Pakistan's ISI has to the Taliban, subtly nudging it it a a proxy in vs. long-time rivals in Syria, Kurdish & Shia Iraq, and even Iran.

Former Green Beret Lang's blog is interesting but this item in his bio has me rolling my eyes:

For his service in DIA, he was awarded the “Presidential Rank of Distinguished Executive.” This is the equivalent of a British knighthood

lol

military guys and their shiny bits of metal