the labour party is essentially fucked if scotland go, right?
― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Sunday, 7 September 2014 11:57 (nine years ago) link
Not necessarily, but it will be interesting to see if various voices in the media try to paint a Yes vote as Labour's fuck-up rather than lay it at the door of David Cameron, who will obviously try to bluff through being the PM in charge at a point of deep humiliation.
― jeangenet ramsey (suzy), Sunday, 7 September 2014 12:00 (nine years ago) link
The Labour Party is essentially fucked anyway, I think. I doubt the independence movement (and arguably UKIP) would have gained as much traction if Labour was seen as caring much about the people they claim to represent. Sometimes you only really see the effects of governments several years after their time in office but we're only now seeing the deep damage Blair has done to both his party and democracy in this country.
― Matt DC, Sunday, 7 September 2014 12:04 (nine years ago) link
speculating about the medium to long term results impact of a Yes vote on England is pretty random, there's no real clear picture of what the impact will be on Scotland either, not least whether it becomes a beacon or a cautionary tale - for those inclined to need those things
― Daphnis Celesta, Sunday, 7 September 2014 12:15 (nine years ago) link
also of course there's a nationalist element to the whole history of the campaign for independence, some arbitrary "North of England" will never be able to secede precisely because it wd have too tenuous a nation-state mythology
― Daphnis Celesta, Sunday, 7 September 2014 12:20 (nine years ago) link
Whether they're playing a long game is an interesting one, not least as it feels like the short game is all downsides for the conservatives. Losing oil, a spike in Sterling rates, more austerity, a surge in UKIP, none of the likely consequences should sound appealing to them. Nor is it certain that they'd weather them well enough to enjoy the long-term benefits.― stet, Sunday, 7 September 2014 00:55 (14 hours ago)
― stet, Sunday, 7 September 2014 00:55 (14 hours ago)
In the short-term a Yes vote is likely to be disastrous for the Conservative Party, Cameron will go down in (English) history as a clown and a bungler. In the longer term, given the voting patterns in the rest of the UK, I'd guess it would favour them, given the removal of a big chunk of Labour seats? The rural South of England isn't going to stop voting Tory any time soon.― Matt DC, Sunday, 7 September 2014 11:42 (3 hours ago)
― Matt DC, Sunday, 7 September 2014 11:42 (3 hours ago)
this again reflects different elements of the conservative party. very difficult to analyse because the different elements of the decision making within the conservative party are not transparent there's a lot of cognitive dissonance at work in the conservative party.
clearly it isn't either 'save the beloved union at all costs' or 'alienate scotland to ensure future conservative hegemony.' for cameron it's surely true that he has miscalculated the referendum date and terms. his political shelflife was expiring rapidly even before the dynamic shifted in scotland though, and he has little personal support. for the rest it's not so clear, high conservative politics is a sublimated knifefight, each for himself.
maybe it could be analysed within the normative scheme of weber's political sociology, traditional/affective or rational (value rational or instrumental). the affective bonds towards union are strong only with the dying coterie of edward leigh and other artefacts. maybe cameron still has some vestigial clan loyalty to the auld ones. traditional bonds, 'this shall be done as ever it was' also don't seem that relevant. traditional constitutional arrangments have been evaporating over the last 20 years, the artificialty of the 1707 union is evident.
so in terms of rationality, whatever that might mean, instrumentally there are all sorts of immediate difficulties with sterling, cta, faslane etc. the weighting is clearly towards a new settlement with extended devolution terms as osborne describes today. the dissonance occurs when the ideological value rationality gnaws away at the conservative conscience. the spectre of a newly streamlined, liberalized english core further weighted towards finance capital and english separate development, singapore floating somewhere in mid-atlantic on renegotiated terms outside or on the periphery of the eu. further ideological split from the nativist/reactionary ukip to the neoliberal internationalist conservatives.
― Nothing less than the Spirit of the Age (nakhchivan), Sunday, 7 September 2014 15:06 (nine years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0flxQCmb5oY
― ambient yacht god (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 7 September 2014 17:13 (nine years ago) link
Could Cameron continue as PM if Scotland voted for independence? He'd have to go surely?
― FYI Macedonia (Tom D.), Sunday, 7 September 2014 19:57 (nine years ago) link
too close to a general election they're already committed to, any challenge wd be hand-waved away under that rationale
― Daphnis Celesta, Sunday, 7 September 2014 19:58 (nine years ago) link
also he had the sense not to be leader of the No campaign
― Daphnis Celesta, Sunday, 7 September 2014 19:59 (nine years ago) link
I think he's dead if there's a Yes vote, this is worse than Eden and Suez.
― FYI Macedonia (Tom D.), Sunday, 7 September 2014 20:12 (nine years ago) link
that is a patently absurd comparison
― Nothing less than the Spirit of the Age (nakhchivan), Sunday, 7 September 2014 20:17 (nine years ago) link
Why would he be finished? (I mean, I think he's a dead man walking anyway, unless there's a massive shift in the polls, as he can't survive if the Tories fail to get an overall majority again and the odds are still against that - but why would a vote for Scottish independence finish him off sooner?)
― Turtleneck Work Solutions (Nasty, Brutish & Short), Sunday, 7 September 2014 20:20 (nine years ago) link
this a conservative prime minister who plenty within his own party hate or distrust, surrounded by ambitious people who could try to foment uprising/leadership challenges
so it might well happen but it isn't inevitable
― Nothing less than the Spirit of the Age (nakhchivan), Sunday, 7 September 2014 20:20 (nine years ago) link
I also haven't read very much on the potential consequences for Northern Ireland, who is good on this subject?
This is a huge unknown, isn't it? What should the name of what's left of the UK even be? 'Great Britain' wouldn't make sense any more, but England, Wales and Northern Ireland is more than a bit unwieldy.
― Turtleneck Work Solutions (Nasty, Brutish & Short), Sunday, 7 September 2014 20:27 (nine years ago) link
the Remaindered Isles
― Daphnis Celesta, Sunday, 7 September 2014 20:29 (nine years ago) link
winner^
― Acting Crazy (Instrumental) (jed_), Sunday, 7 September 2014 20:30 (nine years ago) link
Maybe I'm overstating things but I think being Scottish gives you a different relationship to the Union, in that you actually have one, well I do anyway... so apologies for melodrama.
― FYI Macedonia (Tom D.), Sunday, 7 September 2014 20:38 (nine years ago) link
Is there anything to read article-wise on the analysis of implications for Norn Iron?
― fields of salmon, Sunday, 7 September 2014 20:45 (nine years ago) link
there are a lot of english people who don't give a shit and outside of the labour party there is ambivalence about it virtually everywhere
as noted shithead, new labour house journalist and iraq war advocate martin kettle says at the end of his column today
English opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of Scots remaining in the UK. Do the English care enough, or know how to get their message across?
the second sentence rather invalidates the former -- evidently not enough english people do care about union, though someone who spends their days talking to blunkett, darling &c would be forgiven for missing that
― Nothing less than the Spirit of the Age (nakhchivan), Sunday, 7 September 2014 20:48 (nine years ago) link
(xp) if anyone was unsure whether to vote yes, this might persuade you
― FYI Macedonia (Tom D.), Sunday, 7 September 2014 21:00 (nine years ago) link
^ that might swing the vote to yes, right?
― strychnine, Sunday, 7 September 2014 21:31 (nine years ago) link
eh, in what way?
"If that happened I think an influx of people might move from Scotland to the remaining part of the UK to stay in the union, and their first choice of residence would probably be Northern Ireland," he says.
this is patently ridiculous unless you count less than 100 people out of 5 million as in influx.
― Acting Crazy (Instrumental) (jed_), Sunday, 7 September 2014 21:44 (nine years ago) link
I'm assuming that loons with sashes 'n' flutes might persuade a fair few to vote the other way to be rid of them . Or is tom d saying the Scots should vote no to save norn ireland?
This article says most intending to vote yes do not even identify as nationalists and that the Scots just hate Tories & Nu-Labour. Sectarianism isn't mentioned. Is it playing a part in Scotland? http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/poll-scottish-independence-nationalist-yougov
― strychnine, Sunday, 7 September 2014 22:11 (nine years ago) link
The BT campaign has tried to politely ignore support from the BNP and the Orange Order. They're relying on support from that faction of Scottish society but don't want to say much about it as it puts off as many as it gains.
― I misuse (onimo), Sunday, 7 September 2014 22:26 (nine years ago) link
but the "other side" aren't automatically yes amirite?
― strychnine, Sunday, 7 September 2014 22:52 (nine years ago) link
Is there much anti-English sentiment driving the yes vote or is it just anti-tory in your opinion?Would non-scots feel welcome there post-independence? Is there any chance of N Ireland style trouble from loyalist unionists?
― strychnine, Sunday, 7 September 2014 22:56 (nine years ago) link
there's no anti english sentiment on my facebook feed although i have seen some complain of it on theirs. maybe i just move in the right circles but i imagine non-scots would be welcome and that there will briefly be some trouble which will be hugely magnified in the press.
― Acting Crazy (Instrumental) (jed_), Sunday, 7 September 2014 23:58 (nine years ago) link
http://static01.nyt.com/images/2014/09/07/world/europe/08SCOTLAND2/08SCOTLAND2-articleLarge-v2.jpg
― lag∞n, Monday, 8 September 2014 02:05 (nine years ago) link
based on nothing i feel like yr gonna need yes to have cushion going in election day cause some people will prob chicken out once it starts to seem real
― lag∞n, Monday, 8 September 2014 02:26 (nine years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bw-1Yr5IMAAY31f.jpg:large
― lag∞n, Monday, 8 September 2014 03:53 (nine years ago) link
hopefully ice or lightning powers
― Spirit of Match Game '76 (silby), Monday, 8 September 2014 05:39 (nine years ago) link
yeah this tends to be how votes between "more radical" and "less radical" positions go down. momentum is a helluva drug tho.
This article says most intending to vote yes do not even identify as nationalists and that the Scots just hate Tories & Nu-Labour.
the figures cd be right for all i know, but "most just hate Tories" is not the same as "there is no Nationalist component or agenda" - the rest is like, nationalism needn't inevitably lead to anti-sassenach pogroms
― Daphnis Celesta, Monday, 8 September 2014 05:57 (nine years ago) link
What if Scotland becomes a country and you end up with a bunch of samey jackasses in power? In 1995 for Quebec it was extremely close. 19 years later, a few french speaking left wing nationalists are still yearning for a country, but since then the Quebec population keeps electing champions of austerity as provincial Prime Ministers, it's been either that or casual racism/anglophobia disguised as nationalist rhetoric. I mean sure, there was a dream for the scandinavian model republic but as soon as a politician went 'hey guys less taxes' he was elected and re-elected and so on. I don't know how much power Scotland already has, canadian provinces actually have a lot (culture, health, education are mainly provincial affairs) and I feel that if really quebeckers wanted the left wing nation they dreamed of, they would have found a way to become a true left wing province, elected real left wing politicians and we wouldn't have seen the (quite relative) growth in austerity we've seen in the past 15 years.
― Van Horn Street, Monday, 8 September 2014 06:44 (nine years ago) link
No pogroms, just Clockwork Orange style re-education centres where people are forced to watch 'Scotch and Wry' and 'The White Heather Club' until the proper Scottish attitudes have been absorbed.
― Spaceport Leuchars (dowd), Monday, 8 September 2014 06:51 (nine years ago) link
The '95 Quebec referendum seemed far more about banishing the English language from Quebec than installing a left-wing government in tune with their values
― and in his absence, she (Lee626), Monday, 8 September 2014 09:32 (nine years ago) link
http://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/article/1585089/courting-dragon
― 龜, Monday, 8 September 2014 12:23 (nine years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxBU2P6CIAAqjAB.jpg
― lag∞n, Monday, 8 September 2014 16:29 (nine years ago) link
This is one of the worst things I have ever read in the Guardian:
http://gu.com/p/4xcj2
― ailsa, Monday, 8 September 2014 17:50 (nine years ago) link
i assumed the baby was the first salvo in the black op to undermine independent Scotland by making yr royal family ruinously expensive
― Daphnis Celesta, Monday, 8 September 2014 18:01 (nine years ago) link
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html
― iatee, Monday, 8 September 2014 18:13 (nine years ago) link
I would def vote against it if I were scottish but I guess I am pro-experimental economics since I'm not
― iatee, Monday, 8 September 2014 18:15 (nine years ago) link
Yeah, the North American commentary on this is some of the dumbest shit I've seen.
― everything, Monday, 8 September 2014 18:17 (nine years ago) link
there's been little to no discussion, as far as i've seen, of the economic impact of scottish independence on the rest of the UK. all the threats and tough talk from the No campaign has utterly ignored any possible consequence to not-scotland and how these consequences wd inform all sorts of negotiations with the newly independent nation
― Daphnis Celesta, Monday, 8 September 2014 18:19 (nine years ago) link
krugman is 100% correct that the plan to stay on the pound is unequivocally very bad and naive
― lag∞n, Monday, 8 September 2014 19:51 (nine years ago) link
def when compared with this http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jul/03/independent-scotland-bitcoin-testbed
― oppet, Monday, 8 September 2014 20:01 (nine years ago) link
Speaking through a robot from Sydney at the Financial Times's Camp Alphaville conference in London, Guy Debelle argued that the experience would be similar to Scotland's own period of free banking in the 18th and 19th centuries, when the country's banks were given the power to issue their own currencies.
― lag∞n, Monday, 8 September 2014 20:03 (nine years ago) link
^ totally thought that was a lagoon joke sentence
― iatee, Monday, 8 September 2014 20:04 (nine years ago) link
its very out there
― lag∞n, Monday, 8 September 2014 20:04 (nine years ago) link
No-one else finds the 'Oldest Trick In The Book' thing misogynistic?
― Spaceport Leuchars (dowd), Monday, 8 September 2014 20:09 (nine years ago) link