Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

NYT looks at the debate over the civilian-combatant ratio:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/06/world/middleeast/civilian-or-not-new-fight-in-tallying-the-dead-from-the-gaza-conflict.html

The Times analysis, looking at 1,431 names, shows that the population most likely to be militants, men ages 20 to 29, is also the most overrepresented in the death toll: They are 9 percent of Gaza’s 1.7 million residents, but 34 percent of those killed whose ages were provided. At the same time, women and children under 15, the least likely to be legitimate targets, were the most underrepresented, making up 71 percent of the population and 33 percent of the known-age casualties.

Israel army will probably fight ISIS if they try to cross into Jordan, I imagine. Or attack from Lebanon.

0.33*1431 = 472

btw

it doesn't really speak at all to the argument that attacking militants, knowing civilians will also be killed, constitutes intentionally targeting civilians, but it does disprove the argument that the israeli attacks were indiscriminate.

The Peshmerga will contain ISIS to some extent. The Iranians are already fighting them within Iraqi borders.

It's difficult to ascertain how legitimate a fighting force they are when they've faced almost no opposition so far. There's at least a chance that when things get tougher the mercenaries and weekend jihadis will gtfo.

acc to arutz sheva (right-wing israel media org that deserves very heavy skepticism) hezbollah is not going to confront ISIS directly in Lebanon... yet:

The Islamist army known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) has gained a foothold Lebanon, where it is facing the Lebanese Army. Hezbollah, another potent Lebanese force, said Wednesday that it has no plan to directly engage ISIS at the present.

Hezbollah’s leadership told the Lebanese Daily Star that the organization is providing only logistical support to the Lebanese Army in its battle against ISIS in Arsal, but it continues to secure its hold on surrounding areas and could enter the fray if the Islamists gain ground.

In seeking to establish a foothold in Lebanon, he said, ISIS first used car bombs, then suicide bombers, until it was prepared to launch an open battle.

For now, Hezbollah has taken a decision to step back from the confrontation with ISIS in Arsal and leave the mission to the Lebanese Army, which has no choice but to stamp out the threat at any cost, the official said.

However, the Shiite militia has deemed the 11 kilometers separating Arsal from Labweh, a bastion of support for Hezbollah, a red line which could trigger Hezbollah's direct intervention.

So far, the Lebanese army has lost 13 of its soldiers in a costly battle with rebels to retake the north-eastern Sunni town of Arsal – on the Syrian border and hitherto a resupply base for Islamists trying to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad.

Isis does not need to be a coherent fighting force if they manage to take over an entire country or two. Because then getting them out of power will take some doing (see: Afghanistan).

They can not take over any of the countries they are operating in.

But the difference between roughly half the dead being combatants, in the Israeli version, or barely 10 percent, to use the most stark numbers on the other side, is wide enough to change the characterization of the conflict.

does it really, though? israel's estimate is that 47% of casualties are combatants, and somehow this is seen as an acceptable standard? like maybe you can point to that data and say that sure they've been mostly trying to hit combatants, but to say that 50/50 doesn't count as at least a LITTLE indiscriminate is...a stretch. i mean, you can say that those numbers "disprove" indiscriminate bombing by virtue of not being distributed the same way as general population demographics, but any kind of decision-making that allows for being totally, utterly wrong 50% of the time hardly counts as discriminating

that's called "precision" when God is on your side

and so yes, the IDF may not be intentionally bombing civilians, but since they consider their own statistical estimate of the civ/comb ratio to be acceptable and justifiable, it's clear they have very little regard for the value of the average gazan life

as someone else said upthread, if there had been militants ensconced in an israeli neighborhood they definitely would not have bombed it to the ground

sorry, typo: they may not be intentionally ~targeting~ civilians, but they most certainly are intentionally ~bombing~ them

any kind of decision-making that allows for being totally, utterly wrong 50% of the time hardly counts as discriminating

i don't think the IDF's said they were "wrong" in their choice of targets, have they? isn't their argument that hamas is cunningly positioning starving families right over tunnels and munitions, so that in order to nullify the threat posed by said tunnels & munitions they have no choice but to explode whatever is around them?

it very much reminds me of the classic scene (which movies? i can't remember) where the baddie grabs the girl, puts a gun to her head and cackles at our hero, who calmly takes out his own revolver and shoots the girl. "what's up NOW bitch"

sorry, typo: they may not be intentionally ~targeting~ civilians, but they most certainly are intentionally ~bombing~ them

― gbx, Wednesday, 6 August 2014 15:46 (11 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

otm

it very much reminds me of the classic scene (which movies? i can't remember) where the baddie grabs the girl, puts a gun to her head and cackles at our hero, who calmly takes out his own revolver and shoots the girl. "what's up NOW bitch"

― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand),

don Siegel's space jam?

re ISIS:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/zalmay-khalilzad-to-fight-the-islamic-state-kurdish-and-iraqi-forces-need-expedited-aid/2014/08/05/746d8680-1c24-11e4-ae54-0cfe1f974f8a_story.html?hpid=z3

FOrmer US Ambassador to Iraq op-ed excerpt

There are different views on how Washington should sequence additional assistance to the Iraqis, including direct U.S. attacks on Islamic State targets. One view is that the United States should condition such support on the selection of a new prime minister and the formation of a broadly accepted unity government in Baghdad. There was merit to this logic before the Islamic State’s recent gains, but now the threat is escalating so fast that waiting could have catastrophic consequences. Irbil, Baghdad and Mosul are operating on a different timeline than Washington.

Looks like the Peshmerga (which it's worth remembering is at least ten times bigger than ISIS counting regular and irregular soldiers) has started an assault on the fringes of Mosul.

ISIS's novel strategies don't change the fact that it takes a lot of dudes to control territory for a prolonged period of time. They seem to have a core of experienced and enormously well-trained fighters, and they have a clever way of inspiring others to spontaneously join them throughout the region, but they can't spontaneously generate more well-trained fighters.

sorry if this has already been posted above, can't load previous posts. Patrick Cockburn on ISIS in Iraq http://www.lrb.co.uk/v36/n14/patrick-cockburn/battle-for-baghdad

also a lot of fighters from abroad iirc xp

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/558898-why-is-no-one-acting-against-isis

he doesn't really have an answer. everyone hopes they'll be someone else's headache?

political correctness gone mad imo

I'm starting to think Dexter Filkins is right. The fact that we never should have gone to Iraq in the first place doesn't mean it was a good idea to pull 100% of our presence out now. Even a small presence probably could have prevented this.

Of course, a small US military presence wouldn't fix our larger fuckups with regard to the structure of Iraqi government.

i'm starting to think dexter filkins has "gone native" with all the generals he hangs out w/all day

Maliki didn't want a US presence in Iraq so i'm not sure how viable it would have been. He also doesn't want the US to actively support the Peshmerga with a referendum on independence coming up.

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Hypocrisy+over+Gaza

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ugsv5u-sW0

not this prick again

Pat Condell ruining yet another perfect thread

Of course, a small US military presence wouldn't fix our larger fuckups with regard to the structure of Iraqi government.

― 'arry Goldman (Hurting 2),

Maliki and the Iraqi government told the US they could only stay if the US military was liable under Iraqi law in a way that the US military has never agreed to anywhere. As for the Maliki government, some of it may be 20/20 hindsight now, but was anyone in the US State department, pentagon or White House making noise earlier about Maliki's failures to create a more inclusive government and a less corrupt one? We can't get him to leave now, could we have forced changes earlier?

was anyone in the US State department, pentagon or White House making noise earlier about Maliki's failures to create a more inclusive government and a less corrupt one

short answer, yes

But I guess they had little influence...

Kurdish officials pleaded for international assistance as they appeared to be losing control of the 650-mile border that the semiautonomous region now shares with militants from the Islamic State, an al-Qaeda splinter group. The Kurdish forces were forced to pull out of the town of Qaraqosh overnight, the officials said.

The ancient Christian town had become home to thousands of displaced Christians from the northern city of Mosul after the extremists gave them an ultimatum with three choices: convert to Islam, remain Christian but pay special taxes, or die.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/islamic-state-militants-seize-christian-town-in-northern-iraq-thousands-flee/2014/08/07/942a553a-1e2b-11e4-ab7b-696c295ddfd1_story.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/month-long-war-in-gaza-has-left-a-humanitarian-and-environmental-crisis/2014/08/06/85772138-cad7-4812-90d9-6bdb21be1c63_story.html?tid=pm_world_pop

The scale of destruction and loss over nearly a month of war, Gazans and international aid workers say, is far more devastating than that left after the two previous Israel-Hamas battles, in 2009 and 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=buQ1C5RJ2Vk#t=1668

whole thing is good but start at 27:48 for "the Judaic attitude toward war" and then shortly after that for some commentary on Israel's political/military situation that will resonate pretty hard.

Poll: Huge majority in Gaza want lasting ceasefire. IDC survey finds that 72% hope for peace deal with Israel, 68% prefer reconstruction over rearmament

Hamas vows to restart attacks Friday if blockade not lifted. Terror group’s spokesman warns southern residents not to return to their homes; Israel says it is poised to respond as required

"My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw ISIS forever. We begin bombing in five minutes."

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/08/world/middleeast/american-forces-said-to-bomb-isis-targets-in-iraq.html

US press sec denied it, but I can't see who else would do this.

Humanitarian droppings are in the works too, tg

shipping humanitarian supplies during bombings - sounds very familiar

Iraq dropped the bombs, US the aid

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/08/07/europe_proposes_un_mission_for_gaza

Major European powers have outlined a detailed plan for a European-backed U.N. mission to monitor the lifting of an Israeli and Egyptian blockade of the Gaza Strip and the dismantling of Hamas's military tunnel network and rocket arsenals, according to a copy of the plan obtained by Foreign Policy.

The European initiative aims to reinforce wide-ranging cease-fire talks underway in Cairo. The Europeans are hoping to take advantage of this week's 72-hour humanitarian cease-fire to cobble a more durable plan addressing underlying issues that could reignite violence between Israel and the Palestinians.

Caution needed with Gaza casualty figures
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28688179

US has started bombing ISIS themselves now.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/roads/2014/08/need_an_isis_hoodie_the_world_s_most_notorious_terrorist_group_has_a_gift.html

http://media.vocativ.com/photos/2014/06/ISIS-Fashion_08-960x6501358463987.jpg

mujahideen around the world / don't speak the language / but that hoodie don't need explaining

no caution is needed, mordy, if you are working with the idea that killing one civilian for every combatant is unacceptable

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28731638

Northern Mali had been kinda quiet for awhile, but now:

French forces have bombed Islamist militant positions in northern Mali.
Four or five bombs were dropped in the Esssakane region, west of the city of Timbuktu on Sunday morning, the BBC's Alex Duval Smith in Mali reports.

The UN has said al-Qaeda militants were active in the area. Last month Timbuktu airport came under rocket attack.

France intervened in Mali in January last year to try to drive out al-Qaeda-linked groups, which had taken over the north of the country.

Last month the French government said it was setting up a new military operation to stop the emergence of jihadist groups in the Sahel region of Africa.