Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

Just want to say how grateful I am for the level of debate on ILX at times like this when everywhere else I find either self-affirming echo chambers or bitter namecalling.

First point in the Nation piece is fundamental.

idk this seems largely semantic (Vietnam was a "police action" etc) and just sort of emblematic of how Israel dgaf about UN or int'l conventions because why should they it's not in their interest

But it's fundamental to ideas of proportionality, no? They shouldn't compare casualty ratios with wars between sovereign nations.

Eh you can call it a war or a revolt or a civil war or whatever and it does shift the calculus of international law but what really determines acceptability of tactics imo is public opinion (inside Israel, and maybe the US) and brazenness.

i don't consider myself "pro-israel" but the concept of "proportionality" seems really hollow and catch-phrasey to me.

Not sure I understand how a principle of international law becomes hollow and catchphrasey.

Under international humanitarian law and the Rome Statute, the death of civilians during an armed conflict, no matter how grave and regrettable, does not in itself constitute a war crime. International humanitarian law and the Rome Statute permit belligerents to carry out proportionate attacks against military objectives,[7] even when it is known that some civilian deaths or injuries will occur. A crime occurs if there is an intentional attack directed against civilians (principle of distinction) (Article 8(2)(b)(i)) or an attack is launched on a military objective in the knowledge that the incidental civilian injuries would be clearly excessive in relation to the anticipated military advantage (principle of proportionality) (Article 8(2)(b)(iv))

Thanks for the quote- I think Shakey was asking about proportionality (on the other active thread maybe?)

I get why people bring it up but appealing to Israel to adhere to international law is about as pointless as appealing to America to adhere to international law

(for my part I was unaware of the origin of the proportionality term as well, fwiw)

or an attack is launched on a military objective in the knowledge that the incidental civilian injuries would be clearly excessive in relation to the anticipated military advantage

"the anticipated military advantage to this attack was, like, so important to us, the incidental civilian casualties were totally worth it, sorry"

stated pedantically proportion indicates quantity weighed against other quantities and nobody agrees on the value of any of the things being compared in the first place.

Israel's rejoinder that the US dgaf about proportionality is OTM. Israel shouldn't be the only nation criticised on these grounds.

Yep. As imprecise as proportionality is as a principle, it is the best one we have.

Israel would be justified in pointing out that at least they're putting soldiers on the ground rather than just dropping stuff on stick figures from 10000ft.

Oops...

fairly pathetic how easy it is to spark a conflict between these two when you want to. everyone's so trigger-happy p much any lone nut w an agenda could do it.

i was working on a quick "waitaminnit, how did we get here anyway?" post re: proportionality of response but those tweets are good enough summary. what a sick joke.

Onion really on their game lately:
http://www.theonion.com/video/israel-unveils-new-defense-system-to-deflect-accus,36548/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_campaign=Pic:1:Default

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIlJ8ZCs4jY

Beit hanoun has been completely destroyed

JERUSALEM — Israel’s top ministers decided Saturday night to extend a humanitarian halt to hostilities in the Gaza Strip for 24 hours, but said their troops would continue to operate to destroy tunnels from Gaza into its territory during Sunday’s pause.

The decision came despite continued fire from Gaza into Israel during Israel’s initial four-hour extension of a 12-hour humanitarian pause on Saturday that both sides had agreed to at the request of the United Nations.

this is nuts:
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/investigations/american-died-suicide-bombing-syria-u-s-officials-say-n116491

(i realize it's from a month ago - i didn't see it until tnite and i'm a little surprised it didn't make more news when it happened)

http://www.haaretz.com/mobile/.premium-1.607332?v=3AB70A172CE96761671E1E0AC73F54CC

Kerry's latest cease-fire plan: What was he thinking?

Kerry isn’t anti-Israeli; on the contrary, he's a true friend to Israel. But his conduct in recent days over the Gaza cease-fire raises serious doubts over his judgment and perception of regional events.

Yeah, that's paranoid bullshit. 'Other photographs show Kerry carousing romantically with the Turkish foreign minister in the pastoral grounds of the U.S. ambassador's home in Paris' Come on.

yeah, i don't believe there's a conspiracy, but i have no trouble believing that kerry is a singularly incompetent secretary of state

Nevertheless, that article is so drenched in bullshit it negates it's points.

Like, I'm interested in the stuff about different alliances in the region, but how can I use anything which just names Qatar and Turkey 'the most radical and problematic elements in the region' without further explanation? Not Syria, or ISIL? Turkey more 'radical' than Saudi Arabia?

well, Qatar certainly fits the bill since they're the primary bankrollers of ISIS, MB + Hamas from what I understand. Turkey is maybe more bark than bite.

there's definitely a split going on in the sunni world atm between more moderate countries (egypt, saudi arabia, i'd include PA here too) and more radical ones (qatar, mb, hamas)

Well that is really interesting, do you have more articles on that? What does that do to Syria, where the idea that we couldn't distinguish between moderate opposition and radical was a main reason for not supporting anti-Assad forces?

But also, the US throwing support behind that alliance and calling it 'moderate' would probably be a pretty bad idea, right? I mean, Egypt is executing hundreds of it's citizens for political reasons, and supporting SA never ever turns out right. It would further legitimize MB, probably.

I'm on zing atm but when I get to my computer I'll find u the stuff I've read about the Sunni split

sounds great. thanks!

Still out but I just saw PA condemning Kerry as well for the ceasefire:
http://www.jpost.com/Operation-Protective-Edge/Palestinian-Authority-blasts-Kerry-for-appeasing-Qatar-Turkey-at-Ramallahs-expense-369091

jpod is so often a fool but i think i agree w/ his read here: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2014/07/27/obama-intervening-to-save-hamas/

frederik - this looks like a good place to start re what i was discussing:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/qatar/10678644/Saudis-UAE-Bahrain-withdraw-envoys-from-Qatar-in-security-dispute.html
maybe this too:
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2014/04/qatar-gcc-demand-stop-support-brotherhood.html#

idk, there's a lot of information out there - this has been a slow-boiling thing. it's also the context behind the competing cease fires - qatar's which is essentially meshaal's ceasefire demands, and egypt's which is more favorable to Israel.

also this is gonna make me sound like a conspiracy theorist but i wonder if kerry/obama has been backing the qatar plan (so unexpectedly) is bc of... http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/us-selling-11-billion-arms-qatar-24559078

maybe?

xxp, he could also be interceding on humanitarian grounds. the calculation in any response to hamas has to be metered against civilian losses. any cease-fire agreement that doesn't result in dismantling hamas ultimately results in the preservation of hamas.

Thanks, I love this stuff! But I think it's highly problematic to call SA, UAB and Egypt for 'moderates'. They are reactionary dictatorships afraid of a populist islamistic movement (and I use islamistic in the -ism sense here, not trying to argue that the other side is pro-democrazy). There was nothing 'moderate' about the crackdowns on opposition in Egypt and Bahrain. I can see a whole lot of reasons for US not wanting to be on the side of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, without wondering about weaponssales and such. And I think in the long run it's stupid for Israel to support the reactionaries so freely. The whole 'only democrazy in the region'-thing sorta loses it's luster if they're actively supporting the anti-democratic governments elsewhere. Plus, they will always have public opinion against them.

turkey-egyptian tensions:
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/2014/07/26/Egypt-to-summon-Turkish-envoy-over-Erdogan-comments.html

Well, Erdogan otm. Though it's obviously kinda rich coming from him. Made me remember there was an analysis of Turkey in my newspaper this week. Apparantly there is talk of Erdogan making peace with the Kurds, in hope of creating an alliance with the Kurds in Iraq and perhaps Syria as well. He's definitely ambitious.

this seems pretty sharp to me from a strategic pov:
http://www.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2014/07/25/the-gaza-war-when-strategies-collide/

Really useful piece. Too many people think this is about or only about Israel vs. Hamas (at best). But it's really always been a much bigger picture conflict, quietly aligning the conflicts and strategies of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, Iran and more. I think the same elements dragging this thing out are the same elements keeping this from blowing up into something much bigger and uglier and more deadly. The likes of SA and Egypt have always been about stifling radical dissent rather than outright battling it, if possible, and watching what has happened in Iraq and Syria and Libya is yet another reason they'd probably like to see this limited to Israel.

Yeah, that was really good. Interesting and scary about Ben Gurion, hadn't thought about that. I do thin this is slighty off-putting though:

It’s also worth noting, from the standpoint of very-long-term Israeli interests, that the willingness of the Saudis and Egyptians and their friends, even silently and tactically, to align with Israel is a promising sign that Israel may someday be accepted in the region. Israel has been given a chance to audition for the role of a tacit ally of the Sunni Arab world against both Sunni and Shia radicals; it doesn’t want to blow this chance and its desire to build its relations with neighboring Arab states may outweigh its concerns about annoying Europe or even the U.S.

I don't think the Saudi and Egypt dictatorships should be thought of as representing 'the Sunni Arab world'. That alliance could perhaps finally do something about Iran, but it could also be a complete disaster.

Anyone here have any opinions on Foreign Affairs? Was considering subscribing for a year to try it out.

i recently sub'd. i found that there were too many articles i wanted to read. there's a lot of chaff tho.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/06/16/world/middleeast/iraq.html

Lede: "BAGHDAD — Wielding the threat of sectarian slaughter, Sunni Islamist militants claimed on Sunday that they had massacred hundreds of captive Shiite members of Iraq’s security forces, posting grisly pictures of a mass execution in Tikrit as evidence and warning of more killing to come."

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/israelgaza-conflict-the-secret-report-that-helps-israelis-to-hide-facts-9630765.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/28/opinion/david-grossman-end-the-grindstone-of-israeli-palestinian-violence.html

i really like that piece

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/28/as-israel-enforces-its-buffer-zone-gaza-shrinks-by-40-per-cent.html

This is what "just war" looks like, I guess:

Eran Efrati

6 hours ago · Edited
.

In recent weeks I was on the border of Gaza and getting reports from soldiers in the Gaza Strip who leak information out to me. I am in the process of publication of two big stories in major U.S. newspapers, but there are some things I can share with you right now: Soldiers in two different units inside Gaza leaked information about the murdering of Palestinians by sniper fire in Shuja'iyya neighborhood as punishment for the death of soldiers in their units. After the shooting on the Israeli armored personnel carriers, which killed seven soldiers of the Golani Brigade, the Israeli army carried out a massacre in Shuja'iyya neighborhood. A day after the massacre, many Palestinians came to search for their relatives and their families in the rubble. In one of the videos uploaded to YouTube, a young Palestinian man Salem Shammaly calls the names of his family and looking for them between the ruins when he is suddenly shot at in his chest and falls down. A few seconds after that, there are two additional shootings from snipers into his body, killing him instantly. Since the video was released, there was no official response from the IDF spokesperson. Today I can report that the official command that was handed down to the soldiers in Shujaiyya was to capture Palestinian homes as outposts. From these posts, the soldiers drew an imaginary red line, and amongst themselves decided to shoot to death anyone who crosses it. Anyone crossing the line was defined as a threat to their outposts, and was thus deemed a legitimate target. This was the official reasoning inside the units. I was told that the unofficial reason was to enable the soldiers to take out their frustrations and pain at losing their fellow soldiers (something that for years the IDF has not faced during its operations in Gaza and the West Bank), out on the Palestinian refugees in the neighborhood. Under the pretext of the so-called "security threat" soldiers were directed to carry out a pre-planned attack of revenge on Palestinian civilians. These stories join many other similar ones that Amira Hass and I investigated in Operation Cast Lead. The death toll that continues to rise is steadily reaching the numbers of the massacre of 2009.
More than 1,100 have been killed in Gaza, at least 80 percent of them civilians. Today it is cleared for publication that at least 4 soldiers were killed by a rocket in a gathering area outside of Gaza, and another soldier was killed in Gaza. They join 43 soldiers that have already been killed. We know that more acts of revenge will come soon and it is important that we not stay silent. This is the time to take to the streets and to social media. Demand from your representative wherever you are to stop supporting this massacre and to immediately boycott the state of Israel until the occupation ends, the blockade is lifted and Palestinians will be free. We all want to be in the right place at the right time when history knocks on our door, and history is knocking in Gaza right now. You need to decide on which side you want to go down in history.