Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

A colleague who does a lot of work in the area reckons Kirkuk will be next. Erbil is too well defended by local militias to risk attacking at the moment.

http://i.imgur.com/MJ1CPuy.jpg

John Schindler (@20committee) tweeted at 9:38 AM on Wed, Jun 11, 2014:
Tehran won't let ISIS take over much more of Iraq without Iranians entering the fray to resist...gonna get interesting, folks #JihadWorldCup
(https://twitter.com/20committee/status/476720138046414848)

several reports Tuesday suggested insurgents had surrounded Tikrit, which is more than halfway to Baghdad from Mosul. The question becomes when and where Iraqi forces are able to stand their ground against the insurgent advance.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2014/06/10/mosul-is-burning-and-iraq-could-still-get-worse-here-are-5-reasons-why/

man i thought the kurds were unfuckwithable

There's a suggestion that ISIS may have captured nearly half a billion dollars in cash when they took Mosul's central bank.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/06/iran-officials-call-action-isis-mosul.html

Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, addressed the victories of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) against a fleeing Iraqi military in a meeting with Syria’s ambassador to Iran. “The expansion of terrorist elements of [ISIS] and their violent acts in Iraq was a warning for the region,” Shamkhani said. “There is a need for attention and action from governments and the international community.”

Iraq Asked U.S. for Strikes, Officials Say
Prime Minister’s Secret Request Last Month Was Rebuffed
By MICHAEL R. GORDON and ERIC SCHMITT 7:14 PM ET
The Obama administration declined the request by Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, because it was reluctant to open a new chapter in a conflict that the White House has insisted was closed.

Wow. I guess not so surprising but I wonder if that means we're not going to do anything when ISIS marches on Baghdad.

apparently half a million refugees from mosul

Iraqi officials told the Guardian that two divisions of Iraqi soldiers - roughly 30,000 men - simply turned and ran in the face of the assault by an insurgent force of just 800 fighters.

jesus

The Peshmerga have taken over Kirkuk as they don't think the Iraqi army can / will defend it - with some justification.

it's hard to believe that ISIS doesn't have any state sponsors. i don't buy conspiracy theories that they're funded by Assad, but is it possible that all their funding comes from foreign fighters, local support and captured equipment?

Don't the Gulf States fund the Syrian rebels (which ISIS was a part of at one time?)

Syrian rebels dislike ISIS and have been in conflict with them for a bit now. Saudi Arabia has been accused of funding them, but they recently dismantled an ISIS cell domestically (nb they have a history of repressing rebel groups domestically and promoting them internationally, but this suggests that they're not on great terms w/ the group).

I didn't realize this institute existed:
http://icsr.info

but a guy from it was on BBC this morning claiming that all funding was pretty much coming from foreign fighters which i found hard to believe (nb i had to stop listening for a minute to order my coffee this morning so i may have missed a claim that gulf states are involved)

They're unlikely to need to worry about money if the rumours about Mosul bank are true. There have been a couple of cases where foreigners have been caught trying to smuggle tens of thousands of dollars into Syria to aid them and i wouldn't be surprised if they had a few wealthy patrons in the gulf but i've not heard anything compelling about state funding.

it's just kinda crazy to me that there's this huge army able to takeover Mosul in an afternoon and seize half a bil in assets -- and they're independent actors w/out state support. how often does that happen? i'm struggling to think of a recent example...

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/12/world/middleeast/the-militants-moving-in-on-syria-and-iraq.html?emc=edit_th_20140612&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=31119931

The group is a magnet for militants from around the world. On videos, Twitter and other media, the group showcases fighters from Chechnya, Germany, Britain and the United States.

Its members are better paid, better trained and better armed than even the national armies of Syria and Iraq, Sheikh Hassan said.
Many of the recruits are drawn by its extreme ideology. But others are lured by the high salaries, as well as the group’s ability to consolidate power, according to former members, civilians who have lived under its rule in northern Syria and moderate rebels.

...It has taken over oil fields in eastern Syria, for example, and according to several rebel commanders and aid workers, has resumed pumping. It has also secured revenue by selling electricity to the government from captured power plants. In Iraq on Wednesday, the militants seized control of Baiji, the site of Iraq’s largest oil refinery and power plant.

...
“Wherever we took territory, we would declare people apostates and confiscate their property,” Mustafa said. “We took cars and money from Christians, and from Muslims we didn’t like.”

oh right, now i remember, the interviewee did mention that they've been doing some quick turnarounds on seizing natural resources and then pumping them out for cash infusions on the black market

Yes, they are supposedly getting several hundred thousand dollars a week in natural gas from one site alone.

so is china going to send troops to protect their investments in iraqi oil?

this is a really good interview throughout but since it's 3 pages, and the most interesting bit is on the 3rd page, i'll excerpt it here:

Is there an Israeli pivot to Asia that’s been going on for the past few years?

We don’t run the globe like Washington. We try to find friends here and there, connected to, let’s say, Israeli technology or trade. We are not thinking global tectonics. I’ve been to China. They invited us to discuss borders. I say, What do you mean, borders? Are you interested in 30 miles here? They said no, no, you are the only country that in the last 70 years discusses borders on a regular basis. You negotiate borders, you change borders, you kind of mark the borders with the Palestinians, with the Syrians, with the Egyptians, with the Jordanians. There is international law that here you are familiar with, there is security point of view, there is public point of view. They were really interested in it.

And now you see why. Now they’re seizing this whole area in what they call the South China Sea. It’s wasn’t a theoretical discussion.

I’ll tell you what I think I understood. They very much appreciate, respect, what they think is the Jewish mind or the Jewish tradition, the Jewish wisdom. It doesn’t mean that they like the Jews. They respect the Jews. It’s a big difference. When it comes to Israel, I think that they are after the Israeli technology more than everything. They say, “Well, you’re smart enough, you know how to improvise,” and they think they want to copy it, to steal it, etc.

By the way, their main question—we discussed borders, and other issues, I tried to discuss Iran, to tell them that you are making a big mistake—their main question was, can you explain us what the hell—they don’t say the hell, I say the hell—is the American global strategy? They say, “We simply don’t understand what they are doing.” I say, “Why do you think that I’m the one who should explain it?” They said, “You are good friends of the Americans.” By the way, they also think that we run Washington.

I said, “Look, we are very good friends of the Americans, I won’t discuss it here in China. They are an important friend of ours, sometimes we have our differences, but it’s not a thing to discuss here. Don’t ask me about the American policy. Ask the Americans.”

oops, link: http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/175547/qa-general-uzi-dayan

Oh great, wonderful messages the Chinese are taking from Israel.

ha, yeah israel exporting doublespeak and "facts on the ground" strategy.

i remember reading once that facts on the ground was originally established as a way to force the palestinians to come to the table - that there'd be a consequence for not negotiating (ie that they're negotiating position vis-a-vis the land would become weaker). obv this strategy did not work.

if the ISIS truly is limited in size do you really think they can continue to consolidate/hold power in the vast territory from which they've now pushed out state armies/police? is it possible they'll have overextended themselves, as in the islamists in mali, or that areas w/in their "control" will just break out into internecine conflicts?

the scariest thing is that having revealed just how weak the iraqi military is, the ISIS will give inspiration to many other groups (including shiites concerned w/ self-defense?) to basically take over the role of the gov't in their respective areas? = full civil war, not just "insurgencies."

that's if you don't think iraq already in full-scale civil war.

i keep remembering how talked-up the revolutionary guard was when the US was going to invade and they crumbled immediately. i'm not sure if it's relevant besides being an interesting analogue.

“For example, with $425 million, ISIS could pay 60,000 fighters around $600 a month for a year.”

According to research by the intelligence consultancy Soufan Group, ISIS may not have much trouble attracting that many fighters — if it doesn’t have that many already. Soufan Group said ISIS has attracted 12,000 militants from abroad already, 3,000 of whom are from the West.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/06/12/isis-just-stole-425-million-and-became-the-worlds-richest-terrorist-group/?tid=pm_pop

i forget that banks actually have a lot of money--like, paper money--in them.

An incredible amount of cash was reportedly on hand, and the group made off with 500 billion Iraqi dinars — $425 million.

ok, but how much will that worth in one week? the dinar must be collapsing as we speak

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/13/world/middleeast/iraq.html?hp&_r=0

lots of good info/updates/links in this article.

quick summary: "we spent $1 trillion for a few 100,000 dead iraqis and all we got was this stupid caliphate."

is it me or are there solid reasons why the US and UK govs might not be too worried about a militant Sunni-controlled state suddenly sprouting up next to Iran?

http://www.timesofisrael.com/massive-operation-underway-to-locate-3-teenagers-missing-in-west-bank/

One of the three teenagers is apparently an American citizen.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/iraq-crisis-sunni-caliphate-has-been-bankrolled-by-saudi-arabia-9533396.html

Robert Fisk says its all the Saudis fault

"By the end of the week, we soon realised that we had to do some accounting for them," said the official flippantly. "Before Mosul, their total cash and assets were $875m [£515m]. Afterwards, with the money they robbed from banks and the value of the military supplies they looted, they could add another $1.5bn to that."

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/15/iraq-isis-arrest-jihadists-wealth-power

smh

Rolling smh 2014

http://www.timesofisrael.com/defense-ministry-one-dead-in-golan-heights-mortar-attack/ :(

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/23/al-jazeera-journalists-jailed-seven-years-egypt

Following on from sentencing 181 people to death in a mass trial yesterday and Kerry announcing $575m in military aid the day before.

Ugh

Brushing aside protests from the governments of Western countries, including the United States, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt said on Tuesday that he would not interfere in the case of three journalists from Al Jazeera’s English-language service who have each been sentenced to at least seven years in prison.

above from the NY Times.

US should revoke military aid to Egypt.

instead kerry says we're about to reinstate it

It was not frozen very long (as noted above by Sharivari and here):

Shortly before the verdict, US Secretary of State John Kerry had said he was confident that Washington's delivery to Egypt of 10 Apache attack helicopters would take place soon.

And his department confirmed that $572 million in aid to Egypt had just been unfrozen.

Each year the United States allocates $1.5 billion in aid to Egypt, including $1.3 billion in military assistance.

This was frozen in October on condition that democratic reforms be enacted after the July 2013 military-led overthrow of Islamist elected president Mohamed Morsi and a vicious crackdown on his followers.

http://www.yourmiddleeast.com/news/us-military-ties-with-egypt-trump-rights-concerns_24642

I don't really get what supporting the Egyptian military gets us - they're next to our buddies the Saudis and they have a longstanding peaceful relationship w Israel. Is it all just about placating them to make sure they stay friendly to Israel? Cuz I don't see what strategic purpose (well, ok the canal, I guess?) is served by arming them.

i think it's really only the military that is friendly to the saudi monarchy and israel, right?

that would make sense