Irish politics discussion thread

yep....am praying McDowell gets booted out after all his "don't vote in a flaky left wing government" crap.

Joe Higgins look like he could be in trouble.

this election sucks on a number of levels, not least that I am going to lose our work election prediction competition big time.

higgins gone, i thought. on a local note, gerry cowley bit the dust a long time ago, to nobody's surprise.

i'm kinda glad to see the viable parties win out over the wacko extreme parties though. particularly the PD's and the greens.

Bland centrism for all. Next time around people can moan about how all the politicians are the same.

I am gutted and off to get drunk. Well I was going to do the latter anyway but still, I'm in Dublin South East and so far so good. According to the Irish Times at the moment Gormley is 200 votes ahead (so my vote worked!) which leads me to hope that McDowell will be removed. You never know though, until they've sorted through all the (really confusing!) transfers, nothing is certain sadly.

Had to work all day opposite a FFer who thinks McDowell is the best thing for Irish politics! It's been a long day to put it mildly :(

ROFL @ Ruari Quinn: "I've just come from the pictures and a bite to eat so I'm only now catching up with the figures. I was at Pirates of the Carribean in which a set of gangsters also won an election" I love him. Also said "Howya" to him on the canal yesterday (he only got my number 2).

Having first glass of wine. I promise first drunken rants will be on this thread if they happen. You're all so lucky.

Holy shit. Joe O'Higgins is gone! That is a level 10 on the scale of WTF!

YES! FU MMD!!

haha so good! they chanted "cheerio cheerio cheerio" at him as he was making his pompous resignation speech.

arrogant prick...

Totally! J0hn G0rmley was admirable in not calling him an arrogant prick!

Tr3v0r S4rg3nt on the TV, good man himself.

P4t R4bb1te on earlier. The man's a smug cnut but better him than McDowell. Any bets on who will be next government?

Good god! How bad is D4v1d D4v1n-P0wer's dye job. myeyesgogglesdonothing.jpg

I'm very impressed by the RTE radio commentators, who were on the air continuously from 12pm until at least 9.30 tonight, when I stopped listening.

The whole thing is, as the Vicar says, a victory for bland centrism. For people who want to protect their pensions and who don't give a shit about anyone who's a bit different. It's all very disappointing.

However, I do believe that the flight to the two major parties is a signal of something big coming around the corner, but I just can't quite figure out what that something is, other than the no-doubt upcoming economic downturn. I think the FF people got a bit of a fright this year, and that's why they ran for their first preferences, to keep themselves safe.

If I was Mary Harney, I'd be laughing my ass off right about now.

I would have liked to have seen Beverly Cooper Flynn out on her arse as well. Shame.

Our economy is not going to be doing too well in a year. It makes me very sad to know that I am buying a house (I hope) where the interest will be more than the increase in value... Still beats when my parents bought and it was at 17 or 19%. Madness!

What's interesting for me is that there is an old maxim along the lines of: When stocks are rising, buy a house. When Houses are rising, buy stock. If I wasn't desperate to buy a house I'd be trying the stock market.

But yeah, I'm really disappointed. I had real hopes that the Greens would make a real splash. I never wanted them to be a leading party in the day to day but I wanted them to have some kind of environmental influence. I do think they did though, politicans do like to be seen as hip to da groove etc.

MH didn't look like she was laughing. It's probably a bit tough to see the party that she gave so much to (I am trying to be nice here) used as the scapegoat by the party that she and others split from. It's like an abusive partner turning around after 10 years off the booze and lamping you on a bender. I suppose.

I'm pretty sure, though, that she must be delighted that Mad Dog presided over the demise of the party rather than her, and that after hounding her out of the leadership position, his ludicrous arrogance and thorough unpleasantness lost it for him.

Kev-lol, if you're buying a house because you want somewhere to live, then you'll be fine.

True enough re. PD.

That's what I'm going on at the moment. I'd love a clear sign that hey, a house is the best thing to buy right now :)

LOL @ David of the bad dye job on the tv re. Nazi boy:

"His wife and sons haven't seen much of him over the past 5 years so this is a cloud with silver lining"

Bad journalism I call you RTE! Bad suits, I call you the weatherman, Inspira Carmere I call you ruin! Good night my dears, I'm off to bed. It's a FF government tomorrow but at least my constituency is safe. Keep it local (and personal), that's my motto.

they chanted "cheerio cheerio cheerio" at him as he was making his pompous resignation speech.

That struck me as being a bit boorish. I am now starting to feel sorry for Maccer.

Am I the only person who dislikes the PDs less than Fianna Fáil?

You're joking! I don't think you're alone really, I would have more time for them if they had a) seemed more independent (not so reliant on FF) and b) had chosen different leaders over the past few years.

If Harney is the only PD elected, does that make her an independant?

No, she is a member of a party (in the same way that Joe Higgins is, say).

But she would count as an Independent for Dáil rules, as a parliamentary group needs to have at least seven members.

You're joking!

SRSLY, you'd rather have Chris Andrews as your TD?

No, I voted Gormley, Quinn and Creighton. Also Andrews is young but based on personal experience (he taught one of my best friends and when I visited said school for an open day he was v friendly and decent joking about his brother [the bloody awful David McS4v4ge, the twit in Temple Bar or Grafton Street with the drum on his back] who was based in Denmark at the times) I would have plenty of time for him. I would actually have voted for him if he had been with any other party (even PD if only to get rid of Michael)!

why do you keep google guarding all these names?

do you reckon McDowell will have to get a job in the Centra in the triangle in Ranelagh? Or maybe he will get some kind of entry level job as a technical writer. I hear Liz O'Donnell is starting in McDonalds soon.

I googleproof out of habit I suppose :)

I hear that Godfather's pizza is looking for deliverymen, I know I'd tip heavily if he came to my door lest he "make shit of my driveway" (sic). Liz O'Donnell hasn't worked before so she won't start now. I'd say Mr O'Donnell will be pulling extra shifts now! [/sexism]

That struck me as being a bit boorish. I am now starting to feel sorry for Maccer.

Are you kidding? He's one of the most arrogant, insulting, obnoxious people in public life and he deserves to be treated poorly. He treats other people poorly. Screw him. It's not like people booed Liz O'Donnell when she lost. Anyway, she's popular enough that she could actually get a proper job doing something else.

I am depressed about the whole election. Irish people are idiots.

Irish people are idiots.

Fixed :)

I think that DV might have been winding us up. I hope so anyway...

No, I don't think he is. He is a sporting gentleman who believes people should be treated in a civilised way, even if they are Mad Dog.

I disagree.

Oh dear! Well it's good to know that there are people out there like that anyway!

Yes, yes it is. I would not want to stoop to McDowell's level.

Stupid question, is there a complete list of the election results anywhere on the Interweb?

I don't know. Sorry. Not very helpful.

Irish Times website was pretty good throughout.

I found it very annoying - I kept getting e-mails from people telling me that person X or Y had lost their seat, with nothing obvious about it on the text based Internet. RTE was pretty rubbish too, unless you were using streaming audio.

RTE's website was truly dreadful wasn't it?

Just a big mess with some gigantic picture taking up space where info should have been. Amazing in this day and age.

I suppose we can be grateful that it didn't have a song in the background or smily faces at the end of every article!

Or the Lizard King.

I... I don't understand...

Santorum.jpg

Oh right, cheers for pointer towards thread. That boy works so hard!

I was pretty pleased with the election results, all told. I must have vastly different priorities to EVERY OTHER IRISH ILXOR. I do agree that the coverage was terrible. I was in the UK on Thursday pm, Friday and Saturday and found it very difficult to track progress.

I think that the result could have been easily foretold from a 50/50 perspective - with the mud-slinging fantango before polling the vote was going to swing violently in the direction of FF and FG, those that lost out (primnarily the PDs) did so on the basis of a leader who spoke unreservedly, which our electorate didn't appreciate.

McDowell was in my constituency and I am delighted with that result. I agree that Mary Harney must have had quite a chuckle behind closed doors.

I thought the coverage (TV & Radio) were fantastic! Papers, not so much sadly enough.

McDowell was brought down by his ego, pure and simple. He couldn't leave things alone, took everything personally (something well pointed out by that other egomaniac Adams during the debate) and couldn't help but preen near a camera. He was determined to lead the PDs and was blinded by his own greed to the fact that he was being handed a poisoned chalice. Truth be told, I think Harney acted in a mercenary manner but anyone could have seen the writing on the wall really!

What are your priorities Lara? My concern was that I wanted to remove the established old boys club for a new one (sigh). Also I wanted the Greens to have more of an effect, I would have been happier with them being bigger because while their policies are fairly limited I do want them at cabinet level for discussion. I hope that there will be one or two changes but I'm not sure that they'll really happen.

given the possible bump coming in the economy, i think consolidation was always going to be the order of the day coming up to this one.

is it possible FF knew it too, and played to it?

It's kind of an interesting one, because, as you say, the flight to the two main parties obviously means that the electorate is jittery about something, and the coming five years could possibly not be great for whoever's in government, so why do FF want it so bad right now, when possibly the smart thing to do would have been to soft pedal a bit and maybe let the others take over and screw up. Maybe FF reckons things aren't going to be so bad.

I am highly amused that the first business day after the election results and the Mahon tribunal is right back with the massive irregularities in Bertie's testimony regarding his money.

Quite right and I wonder what effect this commentary will have on the formation of our new government?

To be honest I think our often a-political electorate voted for the people who ran the best campaigns - on a local and national level. Those who didn't convince in the TV debates lost in waves. McDowell and Adams are most notable here.

I was in the UK and it was virtually impossible to find out what was going on. UK coverage = almost nil. Limited web coverage too.

McDowell did v badly on the debate 'tis true! I don't think it was the debate that threw it away for Adams, I think people got spooked by the idea of SF being in government! Lucinda Creighton totally proves your point though, she managed to get through on v little except fluff, that says she does seem really copped on and ready for what's next.

Mahon tribunal appears to have already messed up with their timing sadly enough. I don't really hold any faith in the tribunal system any more. It's not like I had much to begin with.

Everyone's expecting a bump, it's making houses cheaper but scares the shit out of me re. buying at the moment. All that crap about Stamp Duty didn't help.

SF was surely a long shot but Adams was terrible on economic policy, health service etc. It appeared that they (SF) had a single policy agenda.

Creighton is apparently brilliant, although I hate Enda Kenny too much to have voted FG. She's a non-practicing barrister. She and Varadkar seem to be the new breed of FG.

Is there any possibility of putting a stop to these tribunals? I predict a much more emphatic vote of togetherness if we were given that opportunity. And the savings could cover the cost of Stamp Duty!

Btw - I say buy anyway, if that's what you want. The Stamp Duty issue will be negated by price inflation for the next 1-2 years for definite.

UK coverage = almost nil. Limited web coverage too.

I thought it funny how the UK media were still running with the "Bertie to be thrown out of office by sulky electorate" story long after the polls were showing a bounceback for FF.

That's what I'm banking on Lara but thanks, always nice to get the reassurance.

Watching Questions and Answers last night. Poor Fiona O'Malley :(

Was she a bit sadface?

Isn’t that the case for literally all of them though

FF - 💶💶💶🏦
FG - 💶💶💶💶
Labour - nobody cares
SF - 👀
Aontu/various fash - 🇬🇧/🇺🇸

― gyac, Friday, 29 November 2024 13:24 (three hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

probably, and tbf it is valuable political commentary to discuss it all a bit more often imo

I’m sure RTÉ are scrutinising the far right and not constantly platforming them like they did the Iona cunts, right? Right?

congrats on the irishing of your kids, Heez! how did that come about?

― universe fatigue (cat)

My wife’s grandmother was born in Ireland. Back when she was looking at grad schools she realized she could get better tuitions for EU schools if she got her citizenship. Good thing she did because had she of waited until after kids, they would not have been eligible.

Seems like RTE are ignoring them for the most part, gyac but I haven't been paying close attention either tbh

yes as far as i have been able to tell

exit poll projections strong ff result

lets see how transfers go

rte exit poll reporting in % otoh (above was a seats projection, bold indeed) has

fg 21
sf 21
ff 19

would that be better than sf were expecting?

What on earth is that exit poll darragh explain me

The Monk stood for election and has a good chance of getting a seat?!

ive not seen individual seats yet

the first exit poll was some account on twitter, brave of em to try predict how it all works out tbh so i think disregard

calz, im not sure what expectations were for any party tbh, polling was turbulent enough throughout

the security implications of the monk getting elected are nightmarish tbh

full exit poll (primary vote %):
sf: 21.1
fg: 21.0
ff: 19.5
social democrats: 5.8
labour: 5.0
green: 4.0
aontu: 3.6
s-pbp: 3.1
independent ireland: 2.2
independents: 12.7
other parties: 1.9

so if this holds up is the most likely government just fg + ff + one or two of green/labour/social democrats (who going into coalition will probably go badly for as it seems to have for the greens?)? maybe in minority with some support from independents? (i do not follow irish politics anywhere closely enough to have an idea of the ideological leanings of the various independents)

Charlie Haughey served as Taoiseach after gun running!

xp it depends on the transfers

#GE24 second preferences:

Fianna Fáil 20
Fine Gael 20
Sinn Féin 17
Labour 5
Social Democrats 5
PBP-Solidarity 4
Greens 3
Aontú 3
Ind Ireland 3
Independent 14
Other parties 2

O

— Gavan Reilly (@gavreilly) November 29, 2024

Here’s an explanation of how that process works

Worth another share, for the week that's in it… 

How Ireland's PR-STV electoral system works, explained with a 🔴specific 🟠 (#notspon) 🟡 brand 🟢 of 🔵 popular 🟣 colourful 🟤 chocolate confectionery.@virginmedianews #ge24 pic.twitter.com/UeihD7L2S5

— Gavan Reilly (@gavreilly) November 26, 2024

i'm very familiar with ireland's electoral system - it's near-identical to what we have in the australian senate & is rather good as far as electoral systems go

Btw aiui most of the independents are fascist

yeah kinda odds on if you random picked one

i fancy lab/sd to make a move into govt

what's stopped more of them from organising as a party then if most are fairly ideologically aligned? obviously a few of them have this time as independent ireland, but is it just self-interest? commitment to the anti-politics vibe that not being party-aligned brings? it seems a little odd on the surface but i figure there's some weird dynamic that explains it

Lab/SF for the Guns & Roses name

terrible

anywhere worth following for updates (besides here)? any tallyman BlueSky accounts to watch?

Afraid I'll default to RTÉ for a bit and then give up

xp ah they wouldnt all be fascist and of those who are they wouldnt all be the same flavour

id say wait til 2pm tomorrow and tbh rte is pretty good ime

xp this is exactly Irish politics in a nutshell

- no organised left but swathes of broadly leftist views over the country
- all the centre right shit you can eat
- nests of fash who are at least two of the following: 1) churchfuckers 2) linked to loyalist paramilitaries 3) lunatics 4) cosplaying as farmers

Got to be raidioteilifiseireann

ah they wouldnt all be fascist and of those who are they wouldnt all be the same flavour

ah i just meant the fascist ones but makes sense. there is similar stuff here where the far right is mostly split between a bunch of different parties that are cults of personality around their generally incompetent leaders despite there being no real ideological distinctions between any of them.

Irish politics can usually be (barring surprises from SF) low-stakes at the top and absolutely riveting at the local level. Hoping to see coverage of the candidates that lost because they didn't go to enough funerals.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-41527286.html

Remember Eamon Ó Cuiv doing this?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/arid-20117531.html

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GdleI3WWEAASX8g?format=jpg&name=large

Aontu getting that many seats would be a fucking disaster, lads

How many of the indies would side with SF 🤔

surely not enough, my impression was things would have to look more like the polls did a year or two ago when sf were way ahead for a broad left coalition to be viable.

a lot of the right ppl are getting dropped anyway it looks like

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-24/2024/1130/1483898-election-analysis/

in precis

Is it true SF were going in on anti immigration shit?

my impression was that they'd kinda wedged themselves trying to keep the pro- and anti-immigration sides of their base happy, adopting muddled positions that didn't really make either side happy & that this was considered a major factor (along with a bunch of scandals) in their vote collapsing from a year ago when it looked like they were set to form government

i think tbh thats ungenerous

imo they distanced themselves clearly from it as soon as it became clear it was arising and lost votes as a result

i think all three main parties sent out a few "firmer on shoring up the system" messages throughout the election

Yeah I am trying to work out how the vote was so limp from them when they’ve been hammering housing as a message forever & it was voters top concern

idk was it limp they shed racists and kept what might have been expected

none of the three leading parties had stunning results (ff may yet based on seats/transfers) and each might be satisfied

sf remain by some distance the main party of opposition they dont imo want to be anything but or they would actually produce some feasible policy

interest now lies in whether lab/sd think its better to challenge sf as the opposition or try to get into govt as a bloc (which doesnt really look feasible, either way- too many seats for what ff/fg need which means demands would be too high, and chance they just lose out as the customary buffer next time)

intriguing as to whether it pushes the three centre left opposition parties together but that wouldnt really be what lab/sd are known for nor is it really convincing that sf are an ideological match for anyone, really

Guns & roses dream slipping away

sd and labour singing if i dont have youewew to each other