A New Thread fot the Current Israel/Palestine/Lebanon mess

The ground war has begun. Several Israeli brigades now appear to be operating between the Lebanese border and the Litani River. According to reports, Hezbollah forces are dispersed in multiple bunker complexes and are launching rockets from these and other locations.

Hezbollah's strategy appears to be threefold. First, force Israel into costly attacks against prepared fortifications. Second, draw Israeli troops as deeply into Lebanon as possible, forcing them to fight on extended supply lines. Third, move into an Iraqi-style insurgency from which Israel -- out of fear of a resumption of rocket attacks -- cannot withdraw, but which the Israelis also cannot endure because of extended long-term casualties. This appears to have been a carefully planned strategy, built around a threat to Israeli cities that Israel can't afford. The war has begun at Hezbollah's time and choosing.

Israel is caught between three strategic imperatives. First, it must end the threat to Israeli cities, which must involve the destruction of Hezbollah's launch capabilities south of the Litani River. Second, it must try to destroy Hezbollah's infrastructure, which means it must move into the Bekaa Valley and as far as the southern suburbs of Beirut. Third, it must do so in such a way that it is not dragged into a long-term, unsustainable occupation against a capable insurgency.

Hezbollah has implemented its strategy by turning southern Lebanon into a military stronghold, consisting of well-designed bunkers that serve both as fire bases and launch facilities for rockets. The militants appear to be armed with anti-tank weapons and probably anti-aircraft weapons, some of which appear to be of American origin, raising the question of how they were acquired. Hezbollah wants to draw Israel into protracted fighting in this area in order to inflict maximum casualties and to change the psychological equation for both military and political reasons.

Israelis historically do not like to fight positional warfare. Their tendency has been to bypass fortified areas, pushing the fight to the rear in order to disrupt logistics, isolate fortifications and wait for capitulation. This has worked in the past. It is not clear that it will work here. The great unknown is the resilience of Hezbollah's fighters. To this point, there is no reason to doubt it. Israel could be fighting the most resilient and well-motivated opposition force in its history. But the truth is that neither Israel nor Hezbollah really knows what performance will be like under pressure.

Simply occupying the border-Litani area will not achieve any of Israel's strategic goals. Hezbollah still would be able to use rockets against Israel. And even if, for Hezbollah, this area is lost, its capabilities in the Bekaa Valley and southern Beirut will remain intact. Therefore, a battle that focuses solely on the south is not an option for Israel, unless the Israelis feel a defeat here will sap Hezbollah's will to resist. We doubt this to be the case.

The key to the campaign is to understand that Hezbollah has made its strategic decisions. It will not be fighting a mobile war. Israel has lost the strategic initiative: It must fight when Hezbollah has chosen and deal with Hezbollah's challenge. However, given this, Israel does have an operational choice. It can move in a sequential fashion, dealing first with southern Lebanon and then with other issues. It can bypass southern Lebanon and move into the rear areas, returning to southern Lebanon when it is ready. It can attempt to deal with southern Lebanon in detail, while mounting mobile operations in the Bekaa Valley, in the coastal regions and toward south Beirut, or both at the same time.

There are resource and logistical issues involved. Moving simultaneously on all three fronts will put substantial strains on Israel's logistical capability. An encirclement westward on the north side of the Litani, followed by a move toward Beirut while the southern side of the Litani is not secured, poses a serious challenge in re-supply. Moving into the Bekaa means leaving a flank open to the Syrians. We doubt Syria will hit that flank, but then, we don't have to live with the consequences of an intelligence failure. Israel will be sending a lot of force on that line if it chooses that method. Again, since many roads in south Lebanon will not be secure, that limits logistics.

Israel is caught on the horns of a dilemma. Hezbollah has created a situation in which Israel must fight the kind of war it likes the least -- attritional, tactical operations against prepared forces -- or go to the war it prefers, mobile operations, with logistical constraints that make these operations more difficult and dangerous. Moreover, if it does this, it increases the time during which Israeli cities remain under threat. Given clear failures in appreciating Hezbollah's capabilities, Israel must take seriously the possibility that Hezbollah has longer-ranged, anti-personnel rockets that it will use while under attack.

Israel has been trying to break the back of Hezbollah resistance in the south through air attack, special operations and probing attacks. This clearly hasn't worked thus far. That does not mean it won't work, as Israel applies more force to the problem and starts to master the architecture of Hezbollah's tactical and operational structure; however, Israel can't count on a rapid resolution of that problem.

The Israelis have by now thought the problem through. They don't like operational compromises -- preferring highly focused solutions at the center of gravity of an enemy. Hezbollah has tried to deny Israel a center of gravity and may have succeeded, forcing Israel into a compromise position. Repeated assaults against prepared positions are simply not something the Israelis can do, because they cannot afford casualties. They always have preferred mobile encirclement or attacks at the center of gravity of a defensive position. But at this moment, viewed from the outside, this is not an option.

An extended engagement in southern Lebanon is the least likely path, in our opinion. More likely -- and this is a guess -- is a five-part strategy:

1. Insert airmobile and airborne forces north of the Litani to seal the rear of Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. Apply air power and engineering forces to reduce the fortifications, and infantry to attack forces not in fortified positions. Bottle them up, and systematically reduce the force with limited exposure to the attackers.

2. Secure roads along the eastern flank for an armored thrust deep into the Bekaa Valley to engage the main Hezbollah force and infrastructure there. This would involve a move from Qiryat Shimona north into the Bekaa, bypassing the Litani to the west, and would probably require sending airmobile and special forces to secure the high ground. It also would leave the right flank exposed to Syria.

3. Use air power and special forces to undermine Hezbollah capabilities in the southern Beirut area. The Israelis would consider a move into this area after roads through southern Lebanon are cleared and Bekaa relatively secured, moving into the area, only if absolutely necessary, on two axes of attack.

4. Having defeated Hezbollah in detail, withdraw under a political settlement shifting defense responsibility to the Lebanese government.

5. Do all of this while the United States is still able to provide top cover against diplomatic initiatives that will create an increasingly difficult international environment.

There can be many variations on this theme, but these elements are inevitable:

1. Hezbollah cannot be defeated without entering the Bekaa Valley, at the very least.

2. At some point, resistance in southern Lebanon must be dealt with, regardless of the cost.

3. Rocket attacks against northern Israel and even Tel Aviv must be accepted while the campaign unfolds.

4. The real challenge will come when Israel tries to withdraw.

No. 4 is the real challenge. Destruction of Hezbollah's infrastructure does not mean annihilation of the force. If Israel withdraws, Hezbollah or a successor organization will regroup. If Israel remains, it can wind up in the position the United States is in Iraq. This is exactly what Hezbollah wants. So, Israel can buy time, or Israel can occupy and pay the cost. One or the other.

The other solution is to shift the occupational burden to another power that is motivated to prevent the re-emergence of an anti-Israeli military force -- as that is what Hezbollah has become. The Lebanese government is the only possible alternative, but not a particularly capable one, reflecting the deep rifts in Lebanon.

Israel has one other choice, which is to extend the campaign to defeat Syria as well. Israel can do this, but the successor regime to Syrian President Bashar al Assad likely would be much worse for Israel than al Assad has been. Israel can imagine occupying Syria; it can't do it. Syria is too big and the Arabs have learned from the Iraqis how to deal with an occupation. Israel cannot live with a successor to al Assad and it cannot take control of Syria. It will have to live with al Assad. And that means an occupation of Lebanon would always be hostage to Syrian support for insurgents.

Hezbollah has dealt Israel a difficult hand. It has thought through the battle problem as well as the political dimension carefully. Somewhere in this, there has been either an Israeli intelligence failure or a political failure to listen to intelligence. Hezbollah's capabilities have posed a problem for Israel that allowed Hezbollah to start a war at a time and in a way of its choosing. The inquest will come later in Israel. And Hezbollah will likely be shattered regardless of its planning. The correlation of forces does not favor it. But if it forces Israel not only to defeat its main force but also to occupy, Hezbollah will have achieved its goals.

are the dealings and activities of terrorist cells as much of an open secret as those of gangs and gang members? since secrecy is such a huge part of terrorism/resistance movements/etc., i'm guessing the average terrorist's friends and neighbors aren't totally informed of his affiliations.

which, of course, makes civilian casualties even more regrettable, since the inhabitants of a given apartment building might have had no idea they were sharing the laundry room with Terrorist HQ.

(too bad the RaptureReady bulletin board has been removed)

Both Palmerston in 1862 and Napoléon III in January 1863 proposed to mediate beween the two sides, though by '64 no-one was.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8784648057807730825&q=tvshow%3ACharlie_Rose

Are you joking? Where are you getting your news? A quarter of a million people have been sitting in bomb shelters for a week, and according to this Haaretz article, 30-50% of northerners have left their homes:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/741126.html

as for where i get my news, i get it from ILX!

The displaced Lebanese are the bigger story in part because their plight is linked with the tens of thousands of foreign ex-pats that are being evacuated simultaneously, the latter being a story that directly affects a lot of other countries. And given the current situation, I don't think many people have permanently displaced on either side. Doesn't "permanent" displacement imply widespread destruction of entire towns and villages? If that was the case, wouldn't there be a *lot* more than 270-odd deaths in Lebanon, as in at least 50 times that number? I think almost everyone who has left will be able to return if they want to, although who knows when that will be.

-- Jessie the Monster (scarymonsterrr...), July 21st, 2006.

i don't think this makes sense. if you fire rockets that you can't target with any accuracy into civilian areas, you are intentionally killing civilians.

i'm not sure why we're all hung up on whether hizbollah is terrorist/guerilla/militia/ whatever. changing the wording doesn't make a bit of difference. if you don't think much of what a militia is setting out to achieve, how does it matter that they're a militia and not terrorists?

Hicks and the other Idols are currently touring America on the Idols live tour and Bush felt sure their trip to the White House would provide a welcome break for himself and visiting British Prime Minister Tony Blair as they tackle the crisis in the Middle East.

But I assure you my self-loathing has nothing to do with my Jewish roots.

And regardless of how improbable this is, it is terribly disturbing to me that there are people that actually seem to want this.

DO negotiate with kidnappers.
DO NOT under any circumstances GIVE IN to kidnappers or
grant them real concessions. This vindicates their decision
to kidnap and encourages future crimes.

When the German authorities stormed the Islamic terrorists
at the Munich olympics, it was a hard choice, but the RIGHT one.

"But wait, didn't they kill all those Israeli prisoners? Isn't
it more important to save lives then to stand up to terrorists?"

You can do both. It makes better sense, logically and ethically,
to stand up to kidnappers, even if the kidnappers retaliate and
kill innocent prisoners. Because if you capitulate to
terrorists, you only encourage them. Even if you saved 100
lives by making concessions to terrorists, you'd see
10,000 MORE people kidnapped in very short order, with all
the death and suffering that entails. I understand they're
dealing with an epidemic of kidnappings in southeast Asia,
and, if I remember correctly, Brazil.

How can we ask Israel to make major
concessions to a group with such bloody hands?

Another question: what is the difference between a proporationate
response and a disproportionate response to terrorism? Everyone
seems to have a different take on this. Some people say "well,
it's okay to attack Hezbollah, but it's an outrage for them
to attack the Lebanese army." Well, if the Lebanese army has
been allowing an extra-legal terrorist militia to operate mea
culpa, wouldn't that imply that the Lebanese army is an
accessory to murder? Are we sure that the Lebanese army is
100 pecent free of Hezbollah sympathizers or supporters?

The conflict raging
in Lebanon could be said to have lost it's ties to it's
"root causes," having become a Hatfield-McCoy feud, writ large.
Which is all the more reason why we should avoid taking sides
in the Middle East. Why is the U.S hellbent on influencing,
micro-managing and controlling every inch of the globe? It's a
policy that can only lead to death, pain and misery for ALL
parties involved, regardless of who is ultimately declared
"the winner."

on a related note, I was saddened by watching an interview with the father of the two young Arab-Israeli boys that were killed by Hezbollah rockets.

The father laid FULL blame for his sons' deaths on the Israeli government, without a shred of reproach for the directors of
the rocket campaign that cruelly decimated his family. Is
this truly how far gone these people (residents of the region)
are? is there no end to their anger and bitterness? that a
father would philosophically excuse the murder of his sons,
in the name of political solidarity?

But only if it is done by non-state actors. If Hezbollah blew up an Israeli power station, it would be an act of terrorism. When Israel targets and destroys Lebanese and Palestinian power stations, it is not an act of terrorism.

some people say there are lots. others say there are like three and all of them had committed offenses.

what's a reliable source here?

the Hezbollah's 'release prisoners' demand has also sometimes mutated into referring to palestinians rather than lebanese.

http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP121106

I would also like to know more about the Lebanese "prisoners." These are people taken before the withdrawal? Were they tried?

BTW, not only has Israel traded prisoners for its soldiers before, it's generally made grossly disproportionate trades - dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of Palestinians for a few soldiers.

This article refers to "three remaining Lebanese" held by Israel - the one mentioned by name was convicted of murder (killed two civilians and a police officer), so I don't think Hezbollah really has any legitimate grounds on which to seek his release. Can't speak for the other two.

Aye, I believe it is then called a "war crime"

This is a huge red herring, there's very little doubt that Lebanon, Syria and Iran don't care about the Palestinians at all (Israel treats Palestinians like royalty compared to how Palestinian refugees have been treated in Lebanon, for instance). I can't imagine that Hezbollah and Israel would have good relations right now if a Palestinian state had existed for some time already.

So if Hezbollah captured one of the pilots who killed fleeing refugees, could they hold him indefinitely?

Yeah I got burned out on the topic. I'm hesitant to post again cause I think I end up sounding like some kind of zealot. My wife has started to give me the stinkeye whenever I begin prattling on about it...

I'm not pro-Israel or anti-Israel, but the way this situation has unfolded drives me nuts. I'm not sure why - maybe its Iraq-redux frustration? - I know the situations are very different, but here's another nation overreacting to a threat and possibly making things worse with their misadventures in military power.

Unfortunately the damage in Lebanon is already done. I don't mourn any injury Israel's done to Hezbollah, but what has happened to the Lebanese people is a tragedy. There seems to be an attitude at large of, "They asked for it by having Hezbollah in their country." There's a long history of outsider meddling in Lebanon, but over the past several years Lebanon has strived to cultivate a tourist economy in order to depend less on outside influences. Not even a year ago there was a populist democratic uprising which successfully ousted the Syrian army, disbanded the pro-Syrian government, and improved relations with the US. Yes, 14 out of 128 seats in the Lebanese parliament were won by Hezbollah in the subsequent elections, but that's the conundrum of democracy in the Middle East. I'd hardly say they were running the country. CNN showed some clips of Lebanese celebrating in streets during the "Cedar Revolution" last year - uplifting footage then, heartbreaking to view today.

What do we have now? Economy in ruins, spirits crushed, momentum drained. We can talk about rebuilding Lebanon and sending them boatloads of aid; how about not bombing the shit out of them in the first place? Many countries struggle to emerge from 3rd world conditions and only throwing money at them doesn't help (cf Africa, Iraq); it's much better when such change comes from within. Lebanon seemed to be headed down that road voluntarily. Unfortunately the road is now a smoking crater.

Perhaps a bitter battle on the southern border might have goaded the Lebanese government to take stronger action against Hezbollah, or brought more international pressure to bear on the issue. But instead of taking incremental steps to escalate the conflict, Israel went all out with a full-blown war. Was this the wisest course of action?

Ironically, most of the international community (including several Arab nations) initially supported Israel's response to Hezbollah's aggression. Israel could have used this situation to great political advantage; instead it chose to seal off Lebanon and bomb it back to the stone age. That's when the outcry started.

And don't get me started on the US support of actions that punished a nation we encouraged to pursue non-violent resistance, actions that recklessly endangered our own citizens. Not to mention the mismanagement of our response to the crisis - "Want to get out of this warzone created by one of our closest allies? Here's your bill. Ooops, just kidding, you can ride for free!"

I don't protest Israel's attacks on Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. I understand that military operations cause collateral damage (especially when the enemy purposely centers its operations in civilian areas). But Israel's systematic lightning-strike destruction of the country's infrastructure has the potential to win the battle but lose the war, a pyrrhic victory that leaves both sides scarred.

Blah blah blah, feel free to tell me to shut the fuck up...

Uh, make that a little over a year ago...

Here's James Wolcott, with a head full of steam. Excuse the mixed metaphor in the last sentence:

The problem for Lebanon and the Mideast is that the dry rot in Israel and the dry rot in Washington are married in perfect harmony. Add to that the dry rot at the top of the Arab states, and the absence of decent alternatives to this catastrophe become understandable.

http://jameswolcott.com/archives/2006/07/faster_israel_k.php

oh yeah, that's real helpful. fucking Democrats.