ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

I don't think there were 600 militants a day coming from Lviv to Kyiv - that's the estimate claimed by Euromaidan for the total number of protesters coming from Lviv per day, which is probably exaggerated and would include a broadly peaceful majority. Pravy Sektor, again, has an incentive to exaggerate numbers. Iirc, most of the estimates for armed participants in the Kyiv situation were high hundreds / low thousands, and not all of them would be interested in fighting in the East.

There have already been attempts led by Fatherland to disarm / dissolve some far-right groups and even if attempts are being made to bring them into the conflict in the East, I can't see it being particularly stable. I think Fatherland / Svoboda will form a coalition after the election but I wouldn't be surprised to see Yarosh marginalised further.

Ukraine doesn't really have the money or equipment to arm it's current solders (I think only around half are combat ready) so being able to organise anything else will be a massive challenge. Another challenge is that most of the resistance the regular army ran into hasn't been heavily armed militants - it has been everyone from kids to old ladies forming barricades. I can't see them being any more effective. Increased brutality could also lead to more defections from the real army.

I don't disagree. Perhaps a core of 10-20,000 true believers from the West, but otherwise I suspect the vast majority of Ukrainians are keeping their heads down and hoping the elections will bring saner heads to the fore. Loyal Pravy Sektor characters are the last people I'd like to see facing a civilian barricade, though. Too many paths to disaster that require only a few provocateurs.

SV, forgive my earlier raging -- I that Sanpaku is who I accused you of being earlier.

Mayor of Kharkiv (2nd largest city in Ukraine) Hennadiy Kernes was just shot in the back.

And on a lighter note, newly decorated town signs.

How to storm your local administration building. Don't forget your Adidas sneakers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5E-WhnbmOVg

The guy running the Donetsk rebel operation has been outed as...a historical reenactment nerd:

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/830579.html

Suspect he has been waiting for this opportunity for quite some time.

Have you seen Russian historical reenactors? They're amazing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGLceQp8i8U

the leader of the donetsk rebellion previously reenacting white army battles is a sociologist's dream

i love how the footage of the american civil war reenactors is aged with fake grain and tears, so they look just like those real films from the civil war era look.

also, i wonder if they bother having any black people in those reenactments and if so where do they find them.

@ogmor: The 1917-20 revolution in Ukraine was a three way battle between the Petlyura and the Ukrainians, the Russian White army, and the Bolsheviks. Post-USSR, I imagine most Russians would identify with the whites.

omit that the Petlyura

was referring more to the tendency of nationalist movements esp in former soviet states to be led by or feature prominently ppl w/ peculiar interests in national folklore/poetry or whatever tho got no examples to hand

Ukrainian forces are moving on the separatists in Sloviansk and Kravartorsk with armor, at 5 am local time. Translators of the separatist radio stream report the Kiev troops captured the TV station, but also that 1 or 2 helicopters were shot down.

civil war here we goooooo

no hope of a Nestor Makhno in all this eh

At least five dead in Odessa. Probably more. Pro-Kyiv fighters are laying seige to the trade union building separatists are holding.

I'm impressed that these 'protestors' got their hands on surface to air missles

If the battle of Mogadishu is any indication, RPGs work just fine for taking out low-flying helicopters.

xp:

Apparently the pro-Maidan camp set fires at the entrances to the Odessa Trade Union HQ, and beat jumpers. 20+ dead, mostly due to carbon monoxide poisoning.

Earlier in the day an anti-Maidan guy fired a pistol from a rooftop at a pro-Maidan protest.

38 dead.

Reports coming out that Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, the 'people's mayor' of Slovyansk has been killed.

There's video circulating on social media of the pro-Kyiv crowd chasing the separatists into the trade union building and intentionally torching it. Also apparently of them beating people who have jumped out of windows to escape the fire and posing with charred bodies and Molotov cocktails afterwards. It doesn't look like organised state action but the police were, at the very least, powerless to stop it.

I'm impressed that these 'protestors' got their hands on surface to air missles

― panettone for the painfully alone (mayor jingleberries), Friday, May 2, 2014 1:46 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i'm still a bit o_O that the news media even give russia the benefit of the doubt on this. "the rebel groups appear to have some advanced armaments. it's possible they are receiving some russian support." give me a fucking break.

that said, folks in somalia and afghanistan have been able to take out helicopters w/o advanced weaponry.

but was there _any_ presence of "armed groups" in east ukraine before this year? that's what i'd like to know.

this is really becoming a civil war, isn't it? i wonder if putin will try to calm things down before the rebels take the war to kiev, or if he's cool with that.

Depends on who the "armed groups" are. I would assume there are a fair number of Ukrainian soldiers and police officers mixed in with the separatists / federalists and they'd have access to weaponry. Remember also that the groups took over several military and security outposts and would have had access to the stocks there too. Worryingly, they're actually sitting on the largest repository of weapons in Europe - a mine filled with between 1.5m and 3m guns - but have taken the decision not to access them at this stage, as far as anyone can tell. Either way, it seems that the majority of separatist / federalist activists aren't armed.

It's pretty clear that there have been Russian and Moldovan veterans crossing over from Russia or Transdniestr to take part in the activities but material support from the government is a grey area. Some of the separatists / federalists have complained that they aren't actually getting any help from Moscow and they'd be much better stocked if they were. The Slovyansk group is apparently operating on a shoestring and trading petrol for interviews with western journalists.

The biggest danger is that Putin doesn't actually have any control over the groups in the East now. His negotiation to deescalate with the US and the EU may have been done in reasonably good faith but the rebels simply won't accept any deal that sees the Kyiv government remain in power. Putin's spokesman, Dima Peskov, suggested as much today:

"From now on Russia... has essentially lost influence over these people because it will be impossible to convince them to lay down arms" when there's a direct threat to their lives, the state RIA Novosti news agency quoted Peskov as saying.

yeah, that's exactly why you don't stir up trouble like this, of course.

Ukrainian advertisement to boycott Russian goods

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDWHWhj68I0

Insightful commentary by Anatol Lieven:

If Ukrainian forces continue their assault on rebel strongholds in eastern Ukraine, then only three things can happen, separately or in sequence: they will be beaten back with the help of Russian weaponry—such as that used to shoot down two Ukrainian helicopters at Sloviansk on Friday; they will retake one or two towns, after which Russia will reinforce other towns with lightly-disguised Russian special forces, making their capture much harder; and if Ukrainian forces resort to heavy weaponry to blast the rebels from their positions, Russia will invade. The only question then will be where the Russian army will stop: whether Moscow would be content to hold the Donbas, as it previously held South Ossetia and Abkhazia as quasi-independent statelets formally still part of Georgia, or whether it would go on to seize half of Ukraine.

What is truly strange and terrible about this looming disaster is that all the leading players already know and agree about what the only solution can be, even if they disagree on the details and the timing: a federal Ukraine with elected regional governments and robust protection for regional interests.

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/may/05/ukraine-only-way-to-peace/

i came here to post that, i think that's the best thing i've read about the conflict in weeks if not months.

unfortunately now that "things on the ground" are changing so quickly i wonder if we're past the point of the sort of political compromise he suggests is the only real hope. i fucking hope not.

all the leading players already know and agree about what the only solution can be

While Russia has been pushing for a federalized Ukraine, I haven't seen much evidence that either the Ukrainian right (represented by Fatherland/Svoboda/Pravy Sektor) or the American State Dept. wants this. It would certainly interfere with Zbigniew Brzezinski's master plan.

In other news:

Tymoshenko: If Poroshenko wins, we will have to go to the third round of the Revolution.
Odessa's ex-governor: Tymoshenko's election team behind violence.

Interesting factoid: the very name "Ukraine" is literally "border, frontier," from u- "at" + krai "edge." An appellation of doom if I've ever seen one.

Don't know if its been mentioned, but Steve Weissman has been doing terrific work following the money trails (sort by date).

https://twitter.com/Belsat_Eng/status/464144601960677378

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BnD5DinCYAEAeVT.jpg

These guys. Now subject to the death penalty.

High cholesterol is not a death sentence,

so been e-mailing a friend who claims the following how legit is this (I love him and he is v smart and knowledgeable about history but he reads a LOT of conspiracy theory sorta stuff):

Nobody talks about the fact that the junta who took over Kyiv in February are literal Nazis, organizational heirs to mass murderer Stepan Bandera (they carry his portrait at rallies there). What's really fucked is that Poland trained those guys to take over yet they are openly hostile to Poland (which kind of made Ukraine in the 1400s). (Bandera's SS unit killed 90,000 Poles in addition to 300,000 Jews and composed about 5/6s of the murderers at the infamous Babi Yar massacre...) What's weirder still is despite Dmitry Yarosh geting quoted on the record how he wanted to fuck up "Muscovites and Yids" that a number of the governors installed by the coup regime in the Donbas are Jewish.

the junta who took over Kyiv in February are literal Nazis, organizational heirs to mass murderer Stepan Bandera (they carry his portrait at rallies there)

true that nazi-friendly bandera is widely liked & popular among nationalists who sometimes try to play down the whole 'he was a fascist + nazi collaborator' thing

Poland trained those guys to take over

reportedly true

yet they are openly hostile to Poland

i mean poland is giving NATO plenty of room to do training exercises in case kiev needs defending, so if there's hostility to poland from kiev it doesn't seem to be doing much damage

NATO supporting nazis against Russia is some weird through-the-looking glass shit, was my reaction

ha

We can't pretend that the presence of the Far Right (and their enablers) is not problematic. But to pretend that their presence is Russia's motivation is naive. Like most of you, I just don't want more people to die.

There are actual Nazis in government but they form a relatively small element. Yarosh is unlikely to get more than a few percent of the vote in the Presidential election.

The main nationalist group has a more complex background but they are happy to work with deeply unpleasant groups when it suits them. The apparent deployment of Pravy Sektor thugs in hot zones and partnering with Svoboda in the transition government being examples.

The rehabilitation of Bandera has been going on for a while. There are statues of him all over West Ukraine. Russians see him as a Nazi stooge, some Ukrainians see him as a pragmatist who allied himself with whoever could free Ukraine of the Soviets. Poland is definitely not cool with this and has made a number of official protests over the years. Their general hostility to Russia, and a certain amount of Catholic solidarity, acts as a counterbalance.

Most Jewish oligarchs in Eastern Ukraine did have closer ties to the Party of the Regions but some have been willing to work with Kyiv to keep the country together.

oh I'm under no such pretenses. it's just one brand of fascist vs. another, with a lot of duplicitous noise covering actual motivations.

kinda cool with them all killing each other tbh, but yeah don't want to be involved.

xp

Russia is motivated by the existential crisis of a shrinking population and clinging on to regional power status, and hasn't been a good actor in the crisis.

But the Ukrainians in Crimea and eastern Ukraine had every reason to be concerned by Svoboda getting 5 cabinet seats + secretary of the National Security council for Svoboda cofounder/Fatherland go-between Parubiy, and the Svoboda/Fatherland government hasn't done much to alieviate their concerns.

A Lviv torchlight parade from 2012:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2Il2LeEQYk

And from November 2013 (prior to the Maidan protests), schoolchildren near Lviv chanting "One language. One nation. One Fatherland. It's Ukraine. Hang the Russians! Whoever not jumping - Russian!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8YqjAcaLYc

Chilling for those familiar with the slogan "Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Führer." Svoboda has fallen in polls from 6% to around 2% since the beginning of the protests, so clearly this sort of ultra-nationalist sentiment isn't common. My concern is that the ultras recognize their time is limited, and have reasons to provoke more polarization, a Russian response, or with Fatherland, contest the likely victory by Poroshenko in the Presidential election.

In the meantime Putin appears to be backing down, (at least) publically calling on the separatists to delay their independence referendum. Perhaps he concluded Poroshenko (who supports EU ties, but opposes NATO expansion) is someone Russia can deal with.

Is the Atlantic reading ILX?? http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2014/05/what-the-hell-is-going-on-in-ukraine/100730/

haha that was my first thought tbh

http://i.imgur.com/FUB6D0c.jpg

(that's actually Pakistan)

lol

so here's what the WSJ was running on its front page today under headline RUSSIA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE IN UKRAINE

http://www.viendongdaily.com/res/fckfolder/Image/NewEditor/2014/5/09-May-2014/UKRAINE.jpg

so here's what the WSJ was running on its front page today under headline RUSSIA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE IN UKRAINE


--purposely lend impetus to my HOOS (BIG HOOS aka the steendriver)

This reminds me - Friday I was listening to the Diane Rehm show and the substitute host referred to the thousands of "Soviet" troops amassed at the Ukrainian border and nobody on the show corrected him. An understandable Freudian slip.

http://i.imgur.com/F3ign.gif

i imagine after the results of these votes things are going to get particularly intractable