ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

Just found out that my sister is going to Ukraine next month to be an election observer. Somewhat jealous that she's going!

I was looking for flights from Paris to Tel Aviv for this coming June and saw that the cheapest flights go through Kiev. I will pass.

Photos Link Masked Men in East Ukraine to Russia

Photos Link Masked Men in East Ukraine to Russia
--Mordy <img src="/s.png">

at this point it doesn't look like anything will stop russian from effectively annexing much of eastern ukraine, does it?

the mendacity and audacity of putin's realpolitik is astonishing to me, which probably says more about how naïve i am rather than about geopolitics

The Eastern provinces with the strong separatist movements (Donetsk and Luhansk) may be of more strategic value to Moscow as thorns in Ukraine's side. Putin wants a weak central government in all of Ukraine, which will be easier if these two stay in the fold. With Crimean autonomy/annexation, at least, there's a $45 billion windfall, now they can renege on the long term gas discounts Kiev demanded for the lease. Not sure Donetsk and Luhansk, despite being the industrial rust belt of Ukraine, have anywhere near that net value.

While its probably not in Moscow's interest to annex these, given the international outrage, of course they'll want to monitor events with boots on the ground. I'm doubt Russian military represent a significant part of the partisans occupying city halls or tooling around in APCs, which could just as easily be drawn from the defections/resignations of Ukrainian troops including the Navy chief reported in early March. Likewise the U.S. has probably reinforced its CIA station with some JSOC troops, again less for intervention than real-time intel and additional attachés with Turchynov loyalists in the Ukrainian military.

Nice story on how nonplussed most inhabitants of Donetsk are. Separatists and loyalists each poll around a 20%, but 25% could care less.

This is just going to end up like Cyprus, right?

Pre-partition Cypriots were also divided by religion and alphabet, and never had even a somewhat functional polity. Pressures to choose Greek enosis came from within Cyprus. I perceive Ukraine's present misery stems from clumsy external pressures to choose sides, whereas the majority of Ukranians don't want to have to choose between EU and Russian ties, and support both languages for official use.

They could do worse than ending up like Cyprus.

@Congratulations "Nonplussed" means "surprised," "shocked," "taken aback," "confused." For some reason lots of people think it means the opposite.

Thanks, apparently I've only been exposed to the North American informal usage. Et tu, Obama?

If the Ukrainian army won't take up arms in Donetsk and Luhansk, perhaps Parubiy's newly-formed National Guard assembled from Western Ukrainian militants will.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/pro-russian-separatists-confirm-american-israeli-journalist-hostage/

vice.com guy

He'll be OK though, these Russians love Jews

speaking of http://forward.com/articles/196864/the-real-truth-about-those-anti-semitic-flyers-in/

The outrage by the Russian government over anti-Semitism in Ukraine, well, I think the term 'manufactured' barely covers it

The new government's security apparatus is almost entirely headed by West Ukranian neo-fascists. Max Blumenthal called attention to these ugly people in this Salon piece.

Oleh Tyahnybok (leader of Svoboda) called for the liberation of his country from the “Muscovite-Jewish mafia.” After the 2010 conviction of the Nazi death camp guard John Demjanjuk for his supporting role in the death of nearly 30,000 people at the Sobibor camp, Tyahnybok rushed to Germany to declare him a hero who was “fighting for truth.” In the Ukrainian parliament, where Svoboda holds an unprecedented 37 seats, Tyahnybok’s deputy Yuriy Mykhalchyshyn is fond of quoting Joseph Goebbels – he has even founded a think tank originally called “the Joseph Goebbels Political Research Center.”

There are Celtic crosses and American Confederate battle flags hanging in Kiev's city hall.

After the mass resignations from the military, Parubiy is rectruiting a new new National Guard with West Ukrainian militants at its core, the same ones that raided a Lviv military depot prior to the 18 February clashes in Maidan.

The flyers may be fake. There are still plenty of reasons to find some leaders of the Kiev putsch repugnant.

Well we know that but do you actually believe the Russians give a flying fuck about it?

Putin is generally considered to be pro-Israel and supportive of Jewish Russians, on the whole. Not views that are shared by the likes of Zhirinovsky, of course.

There were rumours that the shooting in Mariupol which left three pro-Russian activists dead was instigated by the National Guard as soldiers refused to open fire on Ukrainian citizens but idk how many they are likely to be able to recruit.

They're aiming for 60,000, just less than the former 73,300 Ukrainian Army. Between Svoboda, Right Sector skinheads, and careerists, they should be able to provide the bodies, if not expertise. But that will come.

Even a botched, half-assed civil war serves Brzezinski's grand strategy.

It's certainly an ambitious target and i'm not sure where they're going to get the money from. Looks like a combination of government-aligned militia and a bunch of trainees. If they get a tenth of that over the next few months, i'd be a little surprised, to be honest.

The Maidan self-defense were getting 600 militants per day from Lviv, with busloads were bypassing checkpoints on main roads. Right Sector claims 5-10,000 supporters. Svoboda won 2.1 million votes. There's an 8% unemployment rate, probably higher in the less-educated West.

60,000 bodies isn't a problem. 60,000 disciplined and enthusiastic bodies might be.

The interesting fissure I'm hoping for (to prevent calamity) is between Svoboda and Fatherland. If Fatherland has objections to throwing skinheads against past Party of Regions supporters (uncertain, given the very dirty nature of Ukrainian politics) and voices them publicly and soon, then there's perhaps a conciliatory way out. I've read that Western diplomats demanded a coalition government prior to diplomatic recognition, precisely to temper the far-right. We'll see.

I don't think there were 600 militants a day coming from Lviv to Kyiv - that's the estimate claimed by Euromaidan for the total number of protesters coming from Lviv per day, which is probably exaggerated and would include a broadly peaceful majority. Pravy Sektor, again, has an incentive to exaggerate numbers. Iirc, most of the estimates for armed participants in the Kyiv situation were high hundreds / low thousands, and not all of them would be interested in fighting in the East.

There have already been attempts led by Fatherland to disarm / dissolve some far-right groups and even if attempts are being made to bring them into the conflict in the East, I can't see it being particularly stable. I think Fatherland / Svoboda will form a coalition after the election but I wouldn't be surprised to see Yarosh marginalised further.

Ukraine doesn't really have the money or equipment to arm it's current solders (I think only around half are combat ready) so being able to organise anything else will be a massive challenge. Another challenge is that most of the resistance the regular army ran into hasn't been heavily armed militants - it has been everyone from kids to old ladies forming barricades. I can't see them being any more effective. Increased brutality could also lead to more defections from the real army.

I don't disagree. Perhaps a core of 10-20,000 true believers from the West, but otherwise I suspect the vast majority of Ukrainians are keeping their heads down and hoping the elections will bring saner heads to the fore. Loyal Pravy Sektor characters are the last people I'd like to see facing a civilian barricade, though. Too many paths to disaster that require only a few provocateurs.

SV, forgive my earlier raging -- I that Sanpaku is who I accused you of being earlier.

Mayor of Kharkiv (2nd largest city in Ukraine) Hennadiy Kernes was just shot in the back.

And on a lighter note, newly decorated town signs.

How to storm your local administration building. Don't forget your Adidas sneakers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5E-WhnbmOVg

The guy running the Donetsk rebel operation has been outed as...a historical reenactment nerd:

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/830579.html

Suspect he has been waiting for this opportunity for quite some time.

Have you seen Russian historical reenactors? They're amazing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGLceQp8i8U

the leader of the donetsk rebellion previously reenacting white army battles is a sociologist's dream

i love how the footage of the american civil war reenactors is aged with fake grain and tears, so they look just like those real films from the civil war era look.

also, i wonder if they bother having any black people in those reenactments and if so where do they find them.

@ogmor: The 1917-20 revolution in Ukraine was a three way battle between the Petlyura and the Ukrainians, the Russian White army, and the Bolsheviks. Post-USSR, I imagine most Russians would identify with the whites.

omit that the Petlyura

was referring more to the tendency of nationalist movements esp in former soviet states to be led by or feature prominently ppl w/ peculiar interests in national folklore/poetry or whatever tho got no examples to hand

Ukrainian forces are moving on the separatists in Sloviansk and Kravartorsk with armor, at 5 am local time. Translators of the separatist radio stream report the Kiev troops captured the TV station, but also that 1 or 2 helicopters were shot down.

civil war here we goooooo

no hope of a Nestor Makhno in all this eh

At least five dead in Odessa. Probably more. Pro-Kyiv fighters are laying seige to the trade union building separatists are holding.

I'm impressed that these 'protestors' got their hands on surface to air missles

If the battle of Mogadishu is any indication, RPGs work just fine for taking out low-flying helicopters.

xp:

Apparently the pro-Maidan camp set fires at the entrances to the Odessa Trade Union HQ, and beat jumpers. 20+ dead, mostly due to carbon monoxide poisoning.

Earlier in the day an anti-Maidan guy fired a pistol from a rooftop at a pro-Maidan protest.

38 dead.

Reports coming out that Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, the 'people's mayor' of Slovyansk has been killed.

There's video circulating on social media of the pro-Kyiv crowd chasing the separatists into the trade union building and intentionally torching it. Also apparently of them beating people who have jumped out of windows to escape the fire and posing with charred bodies and Molotov cocktails afterwards. It doesn't look like organised state action but the police were, at the very least, powerless to stop it.

I'm impressed that these 'protestors' got their hands on surface to air missles

― panettone for the painfully alone (mayor jingleberries), Friday, May 2, 2014 1:46 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i'm still a bit o_O that the news media even give russia the benefit of the doubt on this. "the rebel groups appear to have some advanced armaments. it's possible they are receiving some russian support." give me a fucking break.

that said, folks in somalia and afghanistan have been able to take out helicopters w/o advanced weaponry.

but was there _any_ presence of "armed groups" in east ukraine before this year? that's what i'd like to know.

this is really becoming a civil war, isn't it? i wonder if putin will try to calm things down before the rebels take the war to kiev, or if he's cool with that.

Depends on who the "armed groups" are. I would assume there are a fair number of Ukrainian soldiers and police officers mixed in with the separatists / federalists and they'd have access to weaponry. Remember also that the groups took over several military and security outposts and would have had access to the stocks there too. Worryingly, they're actually sitting on the largest repository of weapons in Europe - a mine filled with between 1.5m and 3m guns - but have taken the decision not to access them at this stage, as far as anyone can tell. Either way, it seems that the majority of separatist / federalist activists aren't armed.

It's pretty clear that there have been Russian and Moldovan veterans crossing over from Russia or Transdniestr to take part in the activities but material support from the government is a grey area. Some of the separatists / federalists have complained that they aren't actually getting any help from Moscow and they'd be much better stocked if they were. The Slovyansk group is apparently operating on a shoestring and trading petrol for interviews with western journalists.

The biggest danger is that Putin doesn't actually have any control over the groups in the East now. His negotiation to deescalate with the US and the EU may have been done in reasonably good faith but the rebels simply won't accept any deal that sees the Kyiv government remain in power. Putin's spokesman, Dima Peskov, suggested as much today:

"From now on Russia... has essentially lost influence over these people because it will be impossible to convince them to lay down arms" when there's a direct threat to their lives, the state RIA Novosti news agency quoted Peskov as saying.

yeah, that's exactly why you don't stir up trouble like this, of course.

Ukrainian advertisement to boycott Russian goods

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDWHWhj68I0

Insightful commentary by Anatol Lieven:

If Ukrainian forces continue their assault on rebel strongholds in eastern Ukraine, then only three things can happen, separately or in sequence: they will be beaten back with the help of Russian weaponry—such as that used to shoot down two Ukrainian helicopters at Sloviansk on Friday; they will retake one or two towns, after which Russia will reinforce other towns with lightly-disguised Russian special forces, making their capture much harder; and if Ukrainian forces resort to heavy weaponry to blast the rebels from their positions, Russia will invade. The only question then will be where the Russian army will stop: whether Moscow would be content to hold the Donbas, as it previously held South Ossetia and Abkhazia as quasi-independent statelets formally still part of Georgia, or whether it would go on to seize half of Ukraine.

What is truly strange and terrible about this looming disaster is that all the leading players already know and agree about what the only solution can be, even if they disagree on the details and the timing: a federal Ukraine with elected regional governments and robust protection for regional interests.

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/may/05/ukraine-only-way-to-peace/