ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/russias-revenge-why-west-will-never-understand-kremlin

That article is not really making the point the standfirst suggest btw, or at least it's not the main point.

i didn't read the article so it could be that this isn't as ridiculous as it appears (but i doubt it):

http://i58.tinypic.com/2hnni3l.png

i've read posner before, he's pretty awful.

Tymoshenko has officially entered the race to be President.

The big news is the IMF bailout, though: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/27/imf-agrees-bailout-ukraine-deal

The initial amount will be $18bn (roughly half of what was initially requested) but this might increase when governments chip in. This is contingent on austerity measures that will dramatically reduce the quality (and probably the length) of life of huge numbers of people. Domestic energy will go up by 50% overnight and it's expected that pensions will be cut in half. The figure of $80 a month has been mentioned in a few places.

I would expect most of the bailout money to go to Gazprom and to a handful of European banks that were daft enough to lend to Ukraine when Tymoshenko and Yanukovich were making the right free-market noises. I'm not sure it's nearly enough, though. The banking sector in Ukraine is a total shambles. Take the metro in Kyiv and you'll see hundreds of adverts for small banks offering interest rates of 15 / 20 percent p.a on accounts holding USD or gold - which is completely ludicrous. A run on those banks would bring down the whole system.

lol was just thinking what Ukraine needed was a sharp dose of austerity, they've had it 2 easy for 2 long good job every1

Austerity puts a smile on everyone's face. It's worked so well so far.

Pankaj Mishra is sensible as usual:

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-03-31/ukraine-isn-t-worth-another-cold-war

http://i57.tinypic.com/dmcp54.png

http://static01.nyt.com/images/2014/04/04/us/20140405_PAINTINGS-slide-YMR8/20140405_PAINTINGS-slide-YMR8-blog427.jpg

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bf85LONIcAAI_L7.png

Bush's portrait of Putin looks like one of Vic Reeves' paitings

Lots of strange things happening in wake of Muzychko killing.

Last week Pravy Sektor's HQ was raided by police and, in a separate incident on the same day, one of their members shot and wounded three people including a local Kyiv politician.

http://www.rferl.mobi/a/kyiv-shooting-/25316373.html

Today the body of journalist and Svoboda member Vasily Sergiyenko, who was kidnapped on Friday, was found buried in woodland.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/06/ukrainian-journalist-vasily-sergiyenko-body-found

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/04/06/ukraine_pro_russian_demonstrators_storm_government_buildings_in_donetsk.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26919928

Hmmmmmmmmmm.

Nothing but civilians in those pictures, that's for sure, yessirreebob.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/04/07/protesters_seize_government_buildings_in_eastern_ukraine_is_this_a_prelude.html

Protesters in Ukraine’s East Call On Putin to Send Troops

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/04/07/the-less-americans-know-about-ukraines-location-the-more-they-want-u-s-to-intervene/

It sounds like the SBU has taken back most of the buildings the protesters had occupied, including the SBU's own headquarters in Donetsk, but the big occupations of local parliament buildings in Donetsk and Lugansk are continuing.

The Communist party leader in the Rada accused the government of playing into Russia's hands with the use of paramilitary tactics - which two members of Svoboda took exception to. They attacked him, leading to a mass brawl inside parliament.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26933905

good luck ukraine

Viewing the Ukraine Crisis From Russia’s Perspective

i don't remember anyone in the US comparing arafat to hitler - any idea what the author is referring to?

Assistant Secretary of Defense and Chairman of the Defense Policy Board Advisory Committee Richard Perle did.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/11/world/europe/satellites-show-russia-mobilizing-near-ukraine-nato-says.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/11/world/europe/satellites-show-russia-mobilizing-near-ukraine-nato-says.html
--Mordy <img src="/s.png">

is this situation in East Ukraine Anschluss by espionage/agent provocateur shit of does the population actually want to separate from Russia?

is this situation in East Ukraine Anschluss by espionage/agent provocateur shit of does the population actually want to separate from Russia?
--art

*or does

A proportion will want to unite with Russia, certainly enough to draw crowds in the tens of thousands in protests / demonstrations, but they aren't necessarily representative of the majority. Crimea was different, as it had a long history of being part of Russia and a recent history of autonomy from the rest of Ukraine. Eastern Ukraine is Ukraine, even if the majority is Russian-speaking. There are more ethnic Ukrainians than there are in Crimea. That said, Yanukovich was even more popular there than in Crimea so sympathy with the idea of close ties, if not unification, will be almost universal.

It's Ukraine's industrial base and most jobs are reliant on good relations / trade with Russia.

Ethnic Russians under forty or so do born in Ukraine tend to consider themselves to be Ukrainians generally, and that is a point that is often missed. My sarcastic comment after the picture posted above was intended to indicate that hell yeah I'm pretty sure there is ap action at work. Look at those guys -- they stink of swine.

well this sounds really familiar:

Armed Men Seize Police Station in Eastern Ukraine City

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/13/world/europe/ukraine.html?hp&_r=0

Ukraine Asks U.N. for Peacekeeping Troops as Militants Defy Deadline

Lots of interesting commentary from George Soros in this interview. A few highlights:

Soros: The oligarchs who control much of the Russian economy don’t have any confidence in the regime. They send their children and money abroad. That is what makes the economy so weak. Even with oil over $100 a barrel, which is the minimum Russia needs to balance its budget, it is not growing. Putin turned aggressive out of weakness. He is acting in self-defense. He has no scruples, he can be ruthless, but he is a judo expert, not a sadist—so the economic weakness and the aggressive behavior are entirely self-consistent...

Putin woefully misjudged the situation. Last autumn he had no difficulty in outmaneuvering the European Union, which was hamstrung by its internal political and financial problems. Under German leadership it offered too little and demanded too much. Putin could easily offer a better deal to Ukrainian President Yanukovych. But the Ukrainian people rebelled, upsetting the calculations of both sides.

The rebellion wounded Putin in his Achilles heel. The idea of a spontaneous rebellion simply did not enter into his calculations. In his view the world is ruled by power and those in power can easily manipulate public opinion. Failure to control the people is a sign of weakness...

Schmitz: What should the Western powers do?

Soros: They should focus on strengthening Ukraine rather than on punishing Russia. They cannot prevent or reverse the annexation of Crimea. They are bound to protest it of course because it violates the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 that guaranteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine, including Crimea, but they are not in a position to oppose it by military means. Even sanctions ought to be used sparingly in order to preserve them as a deterrent against the real danger, namely of direct military or economic assault on Ukraine. Russian forces have already occupied a gas plant in Ukraine supplying Crimea and may take more territory unless they are stopped.

Fortunately economic sanctions would be a potent deterrent provided they are used judiciously. Freezing the foreign assets of Russian oligarchs is the opposite of smart sanctions. Oligarchs sending their profits and their children abroad weaken the Russian economy. Until now capital flight was more or less offset by foreign direct investment. Effective sanctions would discourage the inflow of funds, whether in the form of direct investments or bank loans. Moreover, the US could release oil from its strategic reserve and allow its sale abroad. That could put the Russian economy into deficit. The Russian economy is fragile enough to be vulnerable to smart sanctions.

The whole thing is here:
http://www.georgesoros.com/articles-essays/entry/the_future_of_europe_an_interview_with_george_soros/

Worth remembering that Soros, as much as the US government, has been active in destabilising governments surrounding Russia, for better or for worse. The Open Society Foundation has consistently funded opposition groups and provided a platform for Tymoshenko.

I don't think the Russian economy is nearly as weak as he makes out or that capital flight is as big a problem in Russia as it is in Ukraine. The idea that the US would be in a position to flood the market with oil also seems fanciful. He's right about the necessity of strengthening Ukraine rather than weakening Russia, though, and that "economic assault" on Ukraine is probably more of a danger than military action. You can't really stop a country from imposing border controls and ending favourable contracts though.

The idea that the US would be in a position to flood the market with oil also seems fanciful.

Yeah, I agree that's probably not going to happen. At best, releasing oil from the strategic reserves could probably help to mitigate any oil price shock due to increased instability. I thought the part about striking at foreign direct investment was more germane. I don't think that's going to happen unless European allies go along, and that would probably only happen if Russia makes another significant move.

Here's an article on the Russian economy from last December, before this Ukraine business hit the fan:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/12/23/russias-economy-is-decelerating-sharply-but-its-still-close-to-full-employment/

It looks like GDP growth has been stagnating for the past few quarters.

Well there is an election coming up so I wouldnt be surprised if they tap the reserve in tandem

SPR’s maximum drawdown capability is 4.4 mmbpd, vs. global liquids production of 91 mmbpd. A drawdown might cut $20 off the global price, but Siberian oil is relatively cheap to produce ($25/bbl all-in costs), and the U.S. would only have to buy it back at $150+ / bbl from 2016 forward. It would be financially reckless for us and ineffectual given strong Russian emotional ties to Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

"We need to destroy this foreign invader," Krutov said. "We have among these spies Russian military, professionals with long experience in all sorts of conflicts."

Asked if another ultimatum would be given to those who had seized buildings, Krutov said that would be "too humanitarian."

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/15/ukrainian-troops-anti-terrorist-operation-kiev

Bloomberg is reporting the acting Ukrainian government as saying that Russian air troops are in Kramatorsk but it's not clear whether they mean they're claiming troops have actually come over the border in the last few hours or that the people who have been holding buildings for the last few days are Russian army.

Doesn't sound like it's going to plan:

At least three armoured personal carriers that were driven in to the eastern Ukrainian city of Slavyansk had been under the control of Ukrainian armed forces earlier on Wednesday, Reuters photographers said.

A soldier manning one of the troop carriers now under the control of pro-Russian separatists identified himself to Reuters as being a member of Ukraine's 25th paratrooper division from Dnipropetrovsk.

He said: "All the soldiers and the officers are here. We are all boys who won't shoot our own people."

Alec Luhn, who's doing some good work for The Guardian, is worth following:

https://twitter.com/ASLuhn

does ukraine have any desire or ability to police their borders with russia? i assume they are and have been remarkably porous, given how many russian agents/military/etc. have seemingly taken part in (not to say led) the uprisings in the East.

I suppose a closed border would just play into Putin's story even more--he could even more confidently say an invasion was for "humanitarian" purposes.

i would not want to be the Ukrainian head of state right now.

There is 2000km of land border so it would be tough to police it effectively. Most of the claims about Russian ppl recently arrived in East Ukraine suggest they have come up from Crimea though.

is it wrong that when I see pictures of "pro-russian" crowds in eastern ukranian cities I react with contempt? I don't know them any better than I do the protestors from earlier this year in Kiev. many of them are no doubt motivated by the some of the same general hopes and fears. maybe the Euro-American media has just trained me good, but I look at the photos and I can't help sneering-- I get this feeling that the people have bought the Big Lie hook, line, and sinker... and that to a great extent they represent a geriatric class nostalgic for the USSR. that they have allowed themselves to get all whipped up by a bunch of agents provocateurs. it's easier to "Other" them than the Kiev protesters, somehow. even though I know in part that many if not most are just hoping that closer ties w/ (or annexation to) russia will mean a higher standard of living, something we should all be able to relate to.

That's more or less in line with what most people in the west are thinking, I reckon.

For the most part they are just concerned about jobs and pensions and feel they have no reason to trust a nationalist government that overthrew the one 95% of them voted for, particularly when it's rolling towards them with tanks. Idk, the willingness of unarmed civilians to take on the military / paramilitaries, be they Ukrainians braving snipers in Kyiv or Russians of all ages taking to the streets to stare down tanks in Kramatorsk, is impressive whoever you sympathise with.

but who are "they"? what portion of the people of eastern Ukraine can they claim to represent?

I broadly agree with your last comment though I'd add that given that they are effectively bolstered by the russian military, their confidence and bravery might be mitigated a bit.

What proportion of the Ukrainian people (or even the people of Kyiv) did the Maidan protesters represent? It's not possible to know in either case. It's hard to take a defensible position that one set of protests is more legitimate or more morally defensible.

It's equally hard to justify a belief that an acting government whose representatives are talking about addressing the protests by 'annihilating terrorists' is any more defensible than the shamed one it replaced.

yeah, I'm in agreement with you on nearly all counts. I'm troubled by my own reactions. like i said, a strong one is a sense that this is a revolt of the geriatric (so many of those on the "front lines" in photos are little old ladies in babushkas). which even in theory shouldn't be any less valid than a revolt of the young. I suppose I'm just guilty of ageism.

There was just a US supported coup to remove the democratically elected president most in the Ukrainean east voted for. I think your contempt is misplaced.

um, that's simplifying things a bit, don't you think?

$ 5 billion dollars spent on regime change, and we don't even get the whole country.