ok what the fuck is happening in ukraine

It's tough to argue that the current Crimean Parliament is valid but the current Kyiv government isn't (and vice versa).

The challenge to the international community is how to monitor the referendum to make sure it's fair without implicitly endorsing it. They might take the view that sending observers validates the outcome and choose not to.

If the referendum was free and fair, and the people wanted to be part of Russia, then is that so bad?

Putin has made up a bunch of shit about western Ukrainian terrorists, but ... are there Ukrainian terrorists, like some of the more rabid nationalists? Because if Russian annexes Crimea or otherwise permanently invades Ukraine, I bet we'll find out.

If my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a wagon.

If in some bizarre twist of events Russia invaded Kyiv or Lviv, then sure. Crimea, by virtue of being mostly Russian, a relatively recent addition to Ukraine and semi-autonomous already hasn't really featured in the Ukrainian nationalist narrative in the same way as the west / centre of the country though. Or at least not yet.

There have been some speculative articles about Tatar terrorism being a possibility but they don't extend much beyond 'oh hey, they're Muslims they've gotta be into blowing stuff up, eh?'.

Eh, some just go on stabbing rampages.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/03/who-s-really-behind-ukraine-s-synagogue-attacks.html

Putin has made up a bunch of shit about western Ukrainian terrorists, but ... are there Ukrainian terrorists, like some of the more rabid nationalists? Because if Russian annexes Crimea or otherwise permanently invades Ukraine, I bet we'll find out.

― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, March 6, 2014 1:01 PM (3 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

We can all thank George W Bush for such great statesmen like Bashar al Asad and Putin invoking terrorism any time they want to run off and do some flagrant violent shit.

Worth a read.

putin and assad's dad were using that language well before dubya

not everything happens cuz 'murrica

“The only lawful armed force on the territory of the Crimea is the Russian armed forces,” said Crimea’s deputy premier, Rustam Temirgaliev, according to Reuters news agency. “Armed forces of any third country are occupiers. The Ukrainian armed forces have to choose. Lay down their weapons, quit their posts, accept Russian citizenship and join the Russian military. If they do not agree, we are prepared to offer them safe passage from the territory of Crimea to their Ukrainian homeland.”

things not lookin good

that's just... nuts.

it's one thing to say that the current ukrainian government isn't legitimate it's another to say "oh btw we're part of russia now. referendum? why wait for a referendum?"

the "offer safe passage" thing is such an ugly veiled threat

oh good, Seumas Milne has some thoughts

question

so putin was able to effectively seize crimea by taking advantage of a nation gripped by something like chaos, or at best political confusion--not to mention a struggling economy, only tentative formal links to the EU.

a lot of people are suggesting versions of a domino theory, where a russia victorious in the crimea would elect to invade/stir trouble in other countries w/ significant russian populations using the same "protect the people" pretext. but those other states--i'm thinking chiefly of the baltic ones--are doing well economically, have strong democratic governments, and if i'm not mistaken are members of NATO. putin would have no ambiguities to make hash of there.

as for belarus, they are so firmly in the russian orbit that it might as well be a sattelite, so there's not really any need for russia to assert their dominance there.

so does this sort of "domino theory" have any credence?

nah

uh

Simon Shuster ‏@shustry 15m
CONFIRMED: Russian forces storming Ukraine base near Sevastopol, home of anti-aircraft commander center #Crimea http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2014/03/7/7018108/

Simon Shuster ‏@shustry 9m
20 Russian troops inside, moving toward command post of Crimea base, guarded by 100 Ukrainian troops, reports @ukrpravda_news

yikes

fuck

Putin really loves doing this shit on Friday.

surprise attack when everyone's in the pub

normally american politicians use fridays to dump scandal-related news hoping to bury it over the weekend. putin is a bit more ambitious w/ how he uses fridays clearly tho.

i assume this is what rebecca black was singing about

we underestimated her

seems crazy to me that this is worth fighting a civil war over (does either side really have the resources?) but yeah, not good

the gas pipelines from russia to europe run through ukraine

xp I've come to despise Milne. There's literally no tyrant or bully that he won't defend as long as they're not backed by the west, no Russian propaganda talking point that he won't repeat wholesale, no scenario anywhere in the world in which anyone but the US/UK is to blame. He's an intellectual sham, a stuck record, an embarrassment.

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Books/Pix/pictures/2012/10/24/1351078844553/seumas-milne-010.jpg

Re domino theory, annexation of territory isn't the major issue but this sends out a huge message to countries like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, etc with big Russian populations that nationalist governments should not fuck with the interests of citizens aligned with Russia. France kind of takes a similar, albeit more focused and arguably justifiable, position on military action when non-resident French are threatened. Estonia is psychologically a big deal for Russia. It wasn't in a position at the time to stop, idk, 250,000 or so, Russians from being marginalised, often to the point of disenfranchisement, by a nationalist government. That boat had sailed but they don't want it to happen elsewhere.

Milne is a clown and one of the factors that has made the Guardian coverage so shambolic. Rather than striving for actual balance in its news coverage, 'balance' is achieved by getting him to write stupid contrarian articles taking the opposite position to everyone else.

his continued employment is kinda baffling, kinda disgraceful

my partner checks in with naked capitalism sometimes. they have always been a mix of the good and the terrible, but she pointed me to some recent pieces that were rather astonishing putin apologetics.

Milne also writes a lot of the unsigned editorials (or at least he used to).

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wfkEBybHV5s/Uxem5m5dDoI/AAAAAAAAARs/dVCx8jNKei0/s1600/001.png

Yeah, been kind of disappointed by how quickly some people have returned to the position of reactionary Russian nationalism. I suppose that stuff has always just been under the surface, though.

A lot of people will automatically take the position that anything and everything the US government thinks is wrong and anyone defying its will must be on to a good thing. Milne is one and should be ignored.

On the other hand, I have seen a lot of liberals and leftists who wouldn't have known Simferopol from Calpol two weeks ago acting like armchair generals and accusing anyone who doesn't think military action against Russia should be on the table of appeasing fascism.

With any dispute, if a lot of people feel they aren't getting the full story (heavily slanted news articles, little scrutiny of actors on 'side' of Western powers, little engagement with complexities of situation, etc) there is a tendency to create a theory that it's all a sham and the real truth must run counter to the official position.

This is why I have had such a problem with so much of the reporting on Russia in the Putin era. If you constantly print rumours, half-truths and slanted narratives you damage by association the credibility of the critics who are more accurate, more focused and more honest about the government's many failings and problems. Luke Harding does more harm to the British left's support of Russian / Ukrainian opposition groups than Milne could ever hope to.

Excellent points.

We can all thank George W Bush for such great statesmen like Bashar al Asad and Putin invoking terrorism any time they want to run off and do some flagrant violent shit.

Gavrilo Princip to thread.

http://sd.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk/i/keep-calm-and-love-gavrilo-princip.png

GMiL is invaluable in times of international crisis

“The Finance Ministry has prepared a plan for optimizing budget expenditures, which implies budget sequestration is to be in force before the end of March. For this purpose, in particular, it has been proposed to reduce capital costs, eliminate tax schemes and preferences and to cut social benefits, for example, 50 percent of pensions to working pensioners,” Kommersant-Ukraine reported.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Social Policy reported on December 1, 2013, that an average pension in Ukraine is $160.

If true, this won't go down well. The IMF austerity measures are also likely to include jacking up gas and electricity bills. A deeply unpopular government and a discredited opposition might open things up for new parties over the next few years.

yurp

If Putin Is New Hitler, Then Monkey Became Of The Man?

lol

for an old guard left view of what's happening, i'm producing my egyptian marxist buddy's live chat rn: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/occupydclive/2014/03/12/bulletpoints-wnavid-nasr-3-12-14

Looks like the US/EU are getting serious about sanctions if the referendum vote goes through:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-12/russia-said-to-get-ready-for-iran-style-sanctions-in-worst-case.html

Might get some targeted visa bans but I can not see full-scale sanctions happening. Russia is much more integrated into the global economy than Iran and I doubt there is much appetite to push it towards isolationism. Also gas / coal issue.

I found it interesting that the Bloomberg article mentions the Russian government asking billionaires and large companies to see who was vulnerable to margin calls.

Some sanctions seem unavoidable, whether or not they escalate from there would depend on the Russian response. Who so far has been overreacting. So I can clearly see a series of escalating sanctions being imposed. Which would be far more damaging to Russia. And then Ukraine afterwards, probably, and sadly.