Global Warming's Terrifying New Math

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/30/flooding-experts-uk-adapt-climate-change

"It is the only sensible policy – it makes no sense to defend the indefensible."

is this guy an ilxor?

iirc ilxors love defending the indefensible

Managed retreat has been accepted as inevitable by most geographers for a decade, I think. The coastline wouldn't really be defensible even if sea levels weren't rising, it would be daft to think they could be defensible now. When you have flooding or serious erosion it's not politically astute to say 'sorry, nothing we can do' though.

Amid drought, California says it won't allot water to local agencies

Encouraging, at least.

eople working on the regulation say that White House officials regularly remind them of its urgency. One person even described White House “nagging” — a notable reversal for an administration that slowed down controversial environmental regulations during the 2012 presidential campaign.

Writing the new rule is legally complicated. Although the environmental agency has the authority to issue the regulation, Mr. Goffman and his lawyers will have to employ a rarely used portion of the Clean Air Act that was not specifically written to address climate change.

They could devise a legally cautious rule that has little environmental impact, or they could write an aggressive regulation that would slash emissions but be legally vulnerable.

“The legal interpretation is challenging,” said an E.P.A. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “This effectively hasn’t been done.”

The agency’s task is further complicated by Mr. Obama’s tight timeline, intended to complete as much of the regulatory process as possible by the end of his term in early 2017. After the release of the draft in June, the president wants a final version by June 2015. By June 2016, states must submit plans for carrying it out — a challenge for state environmental agencies, which typically have two to three years to write major new regulations.

“It will be a heavy lift,” said Scott Nally, who last month stepped down as Ohio’s top environmental official. In December, Mr. Nally met with environmental agency officials in Washington for a five-and-a-half-hour session aimed at hashing out details of the rule — particularly how states could meet the schedule.

“We rolled up our sleeves,” Mr. Nally said. “We started with coffee and finished with coffee.”

The timeline is also delicate politically. The draft regulation will come out just months before the 2014 midterm elections, when Republican campaigns plan to reignite charges that Democrats are waging a “war on coal.”

http://libcom.org/blog/whos-afraid-ruins-18022014

I enjoyed that! But we've already established I'm a sucker for worst case scenarios. I'm not sure the optimistic stuff about rebuilding makes sense though. Disaster communism lasts exactly as long as it takes for someone to find the right levers to put themselves in charge.

wow, i used to think that maybe one possible redeeming quality of john mccain was that he slightly cared about climate change (he co-sponsored one of the most promising bills on it several years ago), but then i remember that he says things like this:

When John Kerry said earlier this week that climate change is one of the world's most pressing problems, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was left wondering if he and the secretary of state are on the same planet.

McCain said Tuesday that in light of recent diplomatic efforts by the United States, Kerry shouldn't be focused on the environment.

“Why should he talk about climate change when we’ve got a 130,000 people in Syria killed, and, as I predicted on this show many times, the whole Geneva thing was a fiasco, when the Iran-U.S. talks are obviously a joke, and the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations haven’t even begun,” McCain told host Mike Broomhead on Phoenix radio station KFYI.

"You know John Kerry and the President, they could be hitting the trifecta here."

McCain expressed disbelief that Kerry used a recent visit to Indonesia to address climate change.

"Hello? On what planet does he reside?" McCain said.

Kerry said Sunday that climate change is the world's "most fearsome" weapon. He also compared climate changer-deniers to members of the Flat Earth Society.

Those remarks prompted former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to call for Kerry's resignation.

O_o -_- >_<

yes why would people in indonesia possibly be interested in remarks on climate change, HELLOOOOO earth to KERRRYYYYY

It's just mindboggling

You'll never go broke betting on McCain disappointing you.

Handy rubric, as you can replace "McCain" with "humans."

"Hello? On what planet does he reside?" McCain said. A question perhaps best asked of yourself, Senator. If you can't think of any security or diplomatic ramifications to climate change, why don't you just ask your pals in the Pentagon. What a maroon!

How dare you politicize Our Boys, Michael!

The personnel is the political, Lee

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/02/11/there-have-been-five-mass-extinctions-in-earths-history-now-were-facing-a-sixth/

The fossil record from our epoch will probably look like a more rapid loss of species/dramatic climate change than the Permian event. I don't think there is any doubt about that, might not be any geologists about to examine it though. Btw hello Scott!

Al Gore reviewed that E Kolbert book in the NYTBR, and his lede suggests he still has that ol' tin ear:

those who have enjoyed her previous works like “Field Notes From a Catastrophe” will not be disappointed...

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/16/books/review/the-sixth-extinction-by-elizabeth-kolbert.html?_r=0

McCain's comments follow a series of tweets by former GOP House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who on Monday called on Kerry to resign over his climate speech in Jakarta, Indonesia.

"A delusional secretary of State is dangerous to our safety," Gingrich said on Twitter and asked, does Kerry "really believe global warming more dangerous than North Korean and Iranian nukes? More than Russian and Chinese nukes? Really?"

Kolbert on Stewart.

It only works in the US, worth seeking out?

are more people coming around to near term extinction? should I quit my job and spend our final days with my family?

Nah.

Even the full runaway greenhouse scenario; with burning rainforests, burping permafrost, belching seabed methane hydrate releases, Greenland and West Antarctica on the rocks; will take thousands of years to play out. For our lifetimes, the major effects are mostly just persistent droughts in grain belts, and possibly tropical storms, and the political unrest and diasporas of the perenially hungry. We're pretty durable, and I'm fairly confident that in 5000 years there will still be hundreds of thousands of our descendants living around current cliffsides of the Arctic and Southern Ocean, and as the seas abate over the following 100,000 years, we might get another go at the whole industrial enterprise, only with scarce fossil fuels. Its perhaps just a normal rough patch faced by every sentient species in universe.

good, staying put then.

http://libcom.org/blog/whos-afraid-ruins-18022014

― j., Wednesday, February 19, 2014 3:48 AM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

can i just say it warms my cockles to see a libcom link on ilx

Sanpaku, I'm actually disappointed I won't be around for the collapse of civilization.

It wouldn't be as satisfying as you might imagine. More of a stressful grind.

I guess it would be kind of funny if this became a huge existential crisis for humanity, and after much thought, effort, debate, depression etc. we just were struck by an astroid one day

Good opportunities in coal-powered air conditioning.

http://inventorspot.com/files/images/fuzhou-china-air-conditioner-wall-03-280x453.jpg

'asteroid'
I know how to spell

A troubling lesson from the Eocene is that scientists are unable to simulate Eocene climate conditions using climate models designed for the modern climate. When CO2 levels are raised in the computer models to levels appropriate for what scientists think existed during the Eocene, global temperatures rise but high latitude temperatures do not warm as much as what scientists measure, particularly in winter. Some scientists believe that this is because there are unrecognized feedbacks in the climate system involving types of clouds that only form when CO2 levels are very high. If this theory is correct, future climate could warm even more in response to anthropogenic release of CO2 than most models predict.

http://www.learner.org/courses/envsci/unit/text.php?unit=12&secNum=4

I can't really recommend the James Lovelock books, unless you are a fan of fatalism.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/04/23/11144098-gaia-scientist-james-lovelock-i-was-alarmist-about-climate-change?lite

apparently he's swung back the other way.

http://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2008/mar/01/scienceofclimatechange.climatechange

that article is from 2008

so it is! never trust new postings from FB friends....

http://www.cjr.org/the_observatory/climate_confidential_beacon.php

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26340038

Qualms about geoengineering: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-25639343

I keep hearing stories of hurricanes in the UK and weather related damage so severe that the wisdom of rebuilding is being questioned in some regions. But every time I look on the BBC site I see nothing about the weather, and my sister in Leeds hasn't sent any urgent message of despair (which I'd expect) if it was so terrible. What's going on, people who live over there?

It was slightly windy in London so it was all over the news, some quite heavy winds up north a couple of weeks but nothing compared to the US hurricane season!

a couple of weeks back

There was some pretty dramatic wave action in Wales and the South of England recently, iirc. Just as this one.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bf8lTIHIgAApYKB.jpg

The thread:
Monster Waves!

karl malone, have you seen the EF! open letter about sunday's protest making the rounds? curious to hear your thoughts.

Global Warming Slows Antarctica's Coldest Currents

"this has effectively shut one of the main conduits for deep-ocean heat to escape," said Casimir de Lavergne, an oceanographer at McGill University in Montreal.

If humans had a life expectancy of 1000 years, we'd be all over this shit, pronto!

http://metro.co.uk/2014/03/04/pithovirus-sibericum-siberian-permafrost-virus-released-after-30000-years-4405144/

this freaks my shit out to no end

Climate change's highest price is
The polar ice's virus crisis

Decisive!

Decisive tho' the ocean's rise is,
As we despise the skies what fries us,
We fly before the cry that drives us
'Ho! the polar virus crisis!'

Aye, science wise wins noble prizes,
Vain tries; revive not Gaia's life thus!
A lie, a lie, math terrifies us
To dust, wee dye, the ice's virus.

hey guys, no need to worry anymore, this guy says it's not happening

http://thegazette.com/2014/03/07/global-warming-debunked/