2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

yea, i posted that. it was linked from ben smith's politico blog, and there you can find the exit poll

^^^^^^^^^^the stats on race were based on Ohio

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/The_race_factor.html

btw intrade.com still has obama in the 70s

According to the DNC and RNC, Florida and Michigan have violated party rules by moving up their primaries. Today, we each will call upon our respective state and national party chairs to resolve this matter and to ensure that the voters of Michigan and Florida are full participants in the formal selection of their parties' nominees.

way to not apologize for yr state parties' fucking up their own primaries. crybabies.

oh yea, deej is right, it's from ohio

thomp i didn't read your post thoroughly

sorry

btw huge portions of dem voters are crazy racist, i dont know how this can be surprising to anyone

the thing is, many of all racist are also sexist

We must restore the rights of the more than 5 million voters whose voices have been silenced.

silenced by ineptitude

what i'm curious about: where on the net can one find a decent record of the advertising the candidates are doing, regarding what sort of advert to what kind of household, what percentage of them, etc. - i read somewhere that clinton was doing a big push advertising-wise around the time her gallup poll numbers got better, and i'm starting to wonder if this direct stuff makes a bigger difference than the 'larger media narrative'

xpost re: ohio - oops / :

(two million, four hundred thousand, three hundred thousand)

the best part of the whole thing is that if they hadn't moved their primaries up in an ill-fated attempt to assert their importance their states would have ended up being pretty fucking important ^_^

guys we can jerk off to the exit poll data as much as we want but there's simply no indication that all of the voters who said race was important were hillary supporters. it's perhaps just as likely that african american voters took race into account when voting for obama, isn't it?

20% agreed that 'race was a factor influencing their vote', of whom 75% were clinton voters

A good number of the African-American women I know and am close to support Hillary over Obama. This includes: my wife, my mother-in-law, my sister-in-law, my mom.

New haute game for disenfranchised Dems:

McCain Chicken!

"I'm SERIOUS! I really AM going to vote for McCain as a Democrat because of this!..... I will!..... Yeah?.... I will... uh huh!.... don't laugh guys, it's not funny"

btw huge portions of dem voters are crazy racist, i dont know how this can be surprising to anyone

OTM. The Civil Rights Act, busing, etc happened only 40 years ago.

I know I know it's just... disappointing

what i'm curious about: where on the net can one find a decent record of the advertising the candidates are doing

these two sites (along with others i'm sure) generally post the candidates ads along with info on when/where they go on the air:

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/

(they also post endless minutiae about the race, e.g. conference calls, press releases, poll data, etc)

I know a suprisingly large number of 45+ yr old middle class black guys who are HRC supporters, too, Dan. I think age skews the whole thing, too.

Besides the obvious nutjobs and racists, I think the way this pans out between the two camps on the race/gender front is who's turn is it? African-Americans or women? I've seen some pseudo-feminist special pleading in the letters to the editor recently but mostly the official HRC supporter line seems to be that she's got more experience, is less of a chimera, isn't making promises she can't keep, blah, blah, blah...

http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/3/2008/03/thumb463x_AP080304031554-thumb.jpg

"going...down?"

http://media.canada.com/gallery/dose_10ferrell/060803ferrell8.jpg

you know cindy mccain has to get on top cowgirl style or take it from behind because of mccain's arm problems, right? so HOW CAN CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS VOTE FOR A CANDIDATE WHO CANNOT ACHIEVE THE MISSIONARY POSITION?

/kenan

ugh

hey, kenan does not have a monopoly on crass sexual commentary, thank you very much

maybe he has some kind of harness oh jesus stop me stop me

that's right, you just imagined cindy mccain in a fuck-sling.

suffer.

no, actually i didn't.

now you suffer.

giving new meaning to the idea of a 100 year occupation

BEST-CASE: disenchanted Obama youth see Clintons steal nomination, help form actual liberal party

BEST-CASE: disenchanted Obama youth see Clintons steal nomination, help form actual liberal party

One pill makes you larger
And one pill makes you small
And the ones that mother gives you
Don't do anything at all
Go ask Alice
When she's ten feet tall.

hey as long as there's fuck slings, i'm there

20% agreed that 'race was a factor influencing their vote', of whom 75% were clinton voters

MSNBC exit poll also has 20% of voters saying race of candidate was "important", but of those they only went 57-43 to Clinton:

http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/03/the_crucial_racist_vote.php

'only'

there's a difference between "important" and "a factor influencing their vote," so the populations may be different even if the percentages are the same

we don't need exit polls, though. it's quite clear that white people in Ohio and other industrial or interior Southern states don't like Obama as much as white people in other states.

Well, the full question was:

"In deciding your vote for president today, the race of the candidate was (choose one):
-Important
-Not important"

Which is not that different than the AP phrasing.

or, industrial/Catholic. I think we can count MA and NH in this category as well.

the AP phrasing makes it more ok for the respondent to be racist

white people in Ohio and other industrial or interior Southern states

lolz racists be landlocked

Interestingly (or not) no one's complaining that she also got 60% of those who said the gender of the candidate was important.

and how did those people vote?

oh rite, i'm tired

how many of the voters thought Obama was a woman?

the AP phrasing makes it more ok for the respondent to be racist

If this is the case, why did the question yield 20% in both cases.

yeah, some tough guys seem to go for hillary because they figure they'll take the real woman over the fake one

i already addressed that above, xp

i mean, the presumption that the polls are identical has to break down on one of the sets of numbers

i'm just wondering when these fucking superdelegate endorsements are going to come out of the woodwork