Global Warming's Terrifying New Math

seriously though i heard we were on track for 6 degree increase pretty much no matter what? and that all the plants would die and we would run out of oxygen by 2100 or something. that can't be right, can it?

Certainly it seems that once we get to around 3-4 degrees, runaway feedback loops are likely to kick in and get us to 6 no matter what we do to avoid it. And at 6 degrees of warming, a whole bunch of horrible things are going to happen, including near-dead oceans

Graphically, just take current global croplands, mentally subtract lands currently irrigated by overdrawn aquifers, and prorate production in remaining areas where precipitation is projected to decline, where temperatures will grow too high in some areas for germination or even photosynthesis, and don't even consider expansion to regions with acidic spodosol soils. The Indian subcontinent, the Mediterranean region, Mesoamerica, the Sahel, Australia, and America west of the Mississippi are all pretty fucked. The Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and Lifeboat Britain might do okay if they can keep out the climate refugees.

Sanpaku ... If you ever author a book on this subject, I will buy it.

so mass die-off of humans?

If humans go, then you can bet a whole lot of OTHER species -- plant, animal, and miscellaneous -- are gone, too.

I.e. humans are the bonus.

"Just 90 companies caused two-thirds of man-made global warming emissions"
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/20/90-companies-man-made-global-warming-emissions-climate-change

i think this is one of the best climate change articles written for a general audience that i've read in a long time (probably since the mckibben article that prompted this thread:

http://www.thenation.com/article/177614/coming-instant-planetary-emergency

gotta love these tidbits, separated by several paragraphs in the original:

On December 3, a study by eighteen eminent scientists, including the former head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, James Hansen, showed that the long-held, internationally agreed-upon target to limit rises in global average temperatures to two degrees Celsius was in error and far above the 1C threshold that would need to be maintained in order to avoid the effects of catastrophic climate change.

...A World Bank–commissioned report warned that we are indeed on track to a “4C world” marked by extreme heat waves and life-threatening sea-level rise.

The three living diplomats who have led UN climate change talks claim there is little chance the next climate treaty, if it is ever approved, will prevent the world from overheating. “There is nothing that can be agreed in 2015 that would be consistent with the two degrees,” says Yvo de Boer, who was executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2009, when attempts to reach a deal at a summit in Copenhagen crumbled. “The only way that a 2015 agreement can achieve a two-degree goal is to shut down the whole global economy.”

That last quote is going to win over the skeptics. :\

I'm trying to figure out what the best I can hope for is after reading that article. die before it gets too bad? not have kids, certainly.

Become gay, don't procreate.

asteroid

Yet, long before humanity has burned all fossil fuel reserves on the planet, massive amounts of methane will be released. While the human body is potentially capable of handling a six-to-nine-degree Celsius rise in the planetary temperature, the crops and habitat we use for food production are not. As McPherson put it, “If we see a 3.5 to 4C baseline increase, I see no way to have habitat. We are at .85C above baseline and we’ve already triggered all these self-reinforcing feedback loops.”

He adds: “All the evidence points to a locked-in 3.5 to 5 degree C global temperature rise above the 1850 ‘norm’ by mid-century, possibly much sooner. This guarantees a positive feedback, already underway, leading to 4.5 to 6 or more degrees above ‘norm’ and that is a level lethal to life. This is partly due to the fact that humans have to eat and plants can’t adapt fast enough to make that possible for the 7-to-9 billion of us—so we’ll die.”

yellowstone supervolcano

this makes long-term thinking difficult

Lol that article

A-At least I have a topic to diffuse any family holiday political discussion now

As a misanthrope, this is excellent news!

I don't mind if people aren't around in 100 years. just wish it could be a comfortable transition.

Say hello to edible algae.

I'm curious about the William Nordhaus book "Climate Casino". Krugman wrote a nice review of it for NY Review of Books - don't have the link handy. It seems like an attempt to quantify the uncertainty of projections and do a rigorous cost-benefit analysis.

Become gay, don't procreate.

― the objections to Drake from non-REAL HIPHOP people (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, December 18, 2013 2:33 PM (42 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I managed to do the latter without doing the former, but good advice on the whole.

Sounds like someone doesn't want to be fabulous.

“The only way that a 2015 agreement can achieve a two-degree goal is to shut down the whole global economy.”

see, it's a socialist Obammy conspiracy

so am i going to die soon y/n

taking into consideration that my life depends on medical technology powered by the global economy

i'd like if this happened after me and perhaps any kids i have are dead. sorry grandkids.

fucking terrifying tho, i've read enough of these articles, is anyone peddling a silver lining?

so i have until my fifties apparently, barring death in coming wars. do feel lucky i live in a place with a relatively small population.

Sure man I got something that'll make you feel good. Paypal me 500 quid at 乒✧@gm✧✧✧.c✧✧ and I'll ILXmail ya the article xp

...is anyone peddling a silver lining?

I've wondered if Northern Canada, Alaska, China, and Russia will open up as food belts. Just because it's warmer there doesn't mean everything else will be in place (water), but it's something to consider.

I figure probably sometime before 2030 I'll get one of those fake teeth with cyanide gas inside installed in my mouth. When the hordes come for me at least I'll be able to die quickly before they dismember me and eat me for my protein

it's pretty annoying we're all going to die really soon. i met a girl i like tonight but seems no point in asking her out now.

shame as i had been looking forward to not dying for a little while longer.

maybe i could bill it as a final throw of the dice, me and her for the next 20 years.

Good pick-up line material to be found, imo.

I've been thinking about finding someone who will eventually eat my corpse for nutrients. And we seem to have similar interests.

Baby all I can promise you is that I'll slit your throat first when they come for us

Wait, do you like Murakami? xpost

I have a vision in my head of the two of us, tucked away in Alaska, eating algae, as every living thing in the world dies. I know it's a silly romantic dream but maybe one day it can come true.

This were all plankton

Life were good that. Life were good.

The end of civilization and possibly humanity could happen within decades, we should catch an Arcade Fire gig before that.

RE: a silver lining - i quite liked this paper, by the genius earth scientist Larry Cathles: http://sp.lyellcollection.org/content/early/2013/10/18/SP393.6.full.pdf

he is optimistic and, i think, not excessively unrealistic, though he recommends large and immediate actions. in the paper he calculates that the resources required to support the entire projected population of earth at a european standard, 100 years from now, are present on earth. his main concern seems to be a projected shortage of soil.

in any case, i highly recommend reading it, as i think it provides a much-needed positive perspective.

I haven't even read 1000 Books To Read Before You Die yet. xpost

Kind of ironic that the same right-wing militant survivalists who have bunkers stockpiled with canned goods and who are most likely to survive the coming global warming apocalypse are also the least likely to believe that global warming exists

Their one mistake was to dig their bunkers below the level of the rising seas

Do you think they'll be persuaded when they're holed up in their bunkers? I'd like to think so.

The silver lining is that if scientists are unanimous that there's nothing we can do about this, then it allows you to fly overseas on intercontinental flights burning hundreds of thousands of gallons of jet fuel without feeling any remorse

Eat that bluefin tuna because tomorrow you might not be able to

xpost
nope. i honestly think that most of the hardcore deniers will either think "wow, those naturally occurring cycles that i've heard about really hit us hard! damn, we're unlucky!" and/or "god is angry with us. we have to please god"