American Politics Thread 2013: I'm a cool Rodham grandma in the USA

polling is strongly w the democrats fwiw

maybe the republicans have a better line but theyre starting from way behind

not to mention that the current dynamic just reinforces what everyone already thought about the republicans which is that theyre obstructionist

i dont think they can win this one, particularly w the debt limit approaching and big business no doubt preparing to lose their shit over it, and rightfully so

and fwiw the democrats line isnt we wont negotiate its theyre taking the country hostage

yeah, definitely, but i'd never put it past obama/democrats to take a sure thing, completely blow it with idiotic messaging, and then end up compromising even more than they already have (remembering that they seemingly completely forgot about the sequestration levels of funding and let it become the new status quo, and now we're all forced to eat that dogshit for another few months, probably longer). no matter how far ahead they are at the outset, walking around with a "we won't negotiate" soundbyte (even if it's unfairly characterized as that, that's what it ends up sounding like) is pretty odd when the doofus majority of america is like "why won't these bozos in congress just meet in a room and have a beer and negotiate like gentlemen"

we don't negotiate with terrorists is a good soundbyte though

also i think you're overestimating the strength of the polling in favor of the democrats. don't get me wrong, it favors democrats for sure:

the poll asks "Who do you blame more for the government shutdown?":

Republicans - 44%
Democrats/Obama - 35%
Both - 17%

That means that 52% of Americans attribute at least some blame to Democrats, vs 61% to Republicans. that's a significant gap, but not insurmountable

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57605822/poll-americans-not-happy-about-shutdown-more-blame-gop/

it seems like the admin really learned its lesson from 2011 re negotiating abt this stuff, the thing that worries me is the possibility of some larger grand bargain where they give away stuff that they clearly want to give away, like social security cuts

if you can say something for republican intransigence its that its prevented obama from going forward w some of his more wrongheaded centrist bs

duuude come on

Fully 72 percent of Americans disapprove of shutting down the federal government over differences on the Affordable Care Act; just 25 percent approve of this action. Republicans are divided: 48 percent approve, while 49 percent disapprove.

this is as low as you can go Democrats/Obama - 35%

the republicans could start murdering democrats on the house floor and theyre not going below 30%

and the 44% that (accurately) blame republicans only, well, they weren't likely voting for republicans in the first place, so what does it matter? The 35% that somehow, unbelievably, blame democrats/obama MORE than the republicans, they're certainly not voting for democrats. they are the least informed people in the entire world, there is no hope for them. so you're left with 17% that blame both parties, that are also ignorant/apathetic. a few of them will accidentally learn some facts about the shutdown/debt ceiling shitshow if a good article about it manages to slip into their lifestream on facebook and persuasive tidbits are located in the 1st or 2nd sentence of the excerpt box, but most will just keep doing whatever the fuck that they do.

you are trying to talk yrself into this

Fully 72 percent of Americans disapprove of shutting down the federal government over differences on the Affordable Care Act; just 25 percent approve of this action. Republicans are divided: 48 percent approve, while 49 percent disapprove.

i get that, most americans don't approve of the shutdown, but that only matters if the public is informed about who actually caused the shutdown! other polling (the Who do you Blame More? question i was reference above) shows that a slim minority sort of knows what's going on, and a plurality is just flat out wrong.

12% is not a slim majority and the underlying polling also favors the democrats

literally the lowest possible number of people when asked to blame someone blamed democrats, and some people went uh idk

anyhoo i agree that obv the democrats have the upper hand in this (although i think they'll end up negotiating somehow and give away something that pisses liberals off - BOLD PREDICTION).

i'm not sure that polling matters, anyway, when it comes to the near-term decisionmaking and grandstanding by the GOP on this. it might matter in the midterms in the districts that aren't already hopelessly gerrymandered, but politicians of all stripes don't seem to pay much attention to what the public says they want in polls when it comes to actually making decisions while in office.

when wall street gets involved the week before the debt ceiling, they'll start paying attention

also keep in mind that i'm really grumpy because i haven't been able to go work and even my own parents support the shut down

if the dems negotiate itll be for some bigger grand bargain *puke* is my feeling, at the very least i hope they get a permanent end to the debt limit, which is actually meaningful as far as the ongoing functioning of the country

tho i do think politicians pay attention to polling in very public high leverage situations like this, for things that arent all over the media obvs it doesnt really matter since no ones paying attention

"Meanwhile, a whopping 72% disapprove of holding the entire budget hostage over Obamacare, including nearly 50% of all Republicans surveyed."

you shd take yr time off and do something fun, visit a monument or something lol

http://www.bbc.co.uk/leicester/content/images/2006/10/19/dmu_head_in_hands_315x420.jpg

fwiw boehners been saying theres no way hell allow default http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/04/us/politics/debt-limit-impasse.html

Obama and Reid need to not only imply they won't negotiate with terrorists but underline that the responsible, conservative way to oppose bills you don't like is to have the wherewithal to overturn them, not by taking the budget hostage. That means that the Republicans have to win the Senate or the Presidency or both and they're doing everything they can to make that not happen. The Congresspersons in the deep red gerrymandered districts either agree with the nuttery emanating out of the right-wing bloviatosphere or they lack the courage to speak the truth to their constituents; neither does much service to the health of a democratic republic.

yeah the fundamental problem is we have a nonsensical system of government, checks and balances

the responsible, conservative way to oppose bills you don't like is to have the wherewithal to overturn them, not by taking the budget hostage.

occurred to me this morning: the dem house finally ended the war in vietnam by 'power of the purse', no? i'd have to dig into that tho.

yeah the fundamental problem is we have a nonsensical system of government, checks and balances

― lag∞n, Thursday, October 3, 2013 11:52 AM (34 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i am a known hater of bicamerialism etc but i don't think this goes very far. any system will break if you're trying to break it.

they have a built in incentive to break it is the thing

will be interesting if Boehner actually falls on his sword to save the republic from default. kinda hoping he does, he's been a terrible Speaker.

he prob wont have to fall on his sword, most republicans are opposed to this current strategy but are just to chicken to say anything

you don't think he'll lose the speakership over this?

others know better than me but i think boehner's speakership is perfectly safe no matter what he does -- i know the ultras he's dealing with have zero long-term thinking but even they know if they bump him off one of them has to lead, and i don't think anybody wants his job. his enemies would rather have him around to complain about.

prob not xp

cuz I assume that's the real calculus Boehner is working out right now

xp

Cantor's made it clear he wants his job. Ryan too I would imagine.

Just wondering: What are the chances of some of the stupidest right-wingest tea partiers being primaried to the left in the midterms? I mean, if the business community is really worried, they could pour money into these elections, and presumably taking the edge off the primary dynamic. I mean, a lot of these idiots will have completely nonsensical soundbytes to be used against them.

i read one thing that estimated that it was just ~a quarter of the gop caucus that supports the shutdown, the rest are being held hostage over primary threats

so not gonna happen, Frederik

forgive my ignorance on procedural stuff, but is bringing a clean CR to the House floor for an up or down vote entirely up to Boehner? and he's just afraid that doing so will enrage tea partiers who will call for his head? can't all the Repubs who WOULD vote for the clean CR and move on (which sounds like may be the majority?) put pressure on him, too?

i mean i dont think its impossible that boehner could be ousted if he brought a clean cr to the floor but id bet on him keeping his post

yes it is entirely up to Boehner, he calls bills to a vote

xp

yeah will you have it right, the thing is the republicans dont want to actually have to vote for the clean cr cause theyre afraid of someone using it against them in a primary, so what would happen is boehner would bring it to the floor then it would pass w mostly dem votes and a minimum of republicans

i think also theres an element of the leadership giving the wingnets enough rope to hang themselves

xpost
basically he's indefinitely furloughing ~800K people so he can keep his own prestigious position.

violating the "Hastert Rule"

xp

like you can have a week of this but then you have to pick up yr toys and go home

I think we've entered a phase (which we had in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century) in which speaker are non-entities, creatures of their caucuses.

Boehner's already violated the Hastert rule at least four times.