2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

except of course that's not gonna happen.

*runs away again*

the reason people say clinton should get out is that it's virtually impossible for her to win the elected delegate count. the only thing she can blame that on are poor, overconfident political decisions made by her and her campaign. like those that helped O lose TX. if she wins, it's going to have to be on superdelegates, and she's going to have to establish herself as the more electable candidate. to do that, she's going to have to establish that a half-black man can't win her greater strength among working-class whites and catholics beats Obama's greater strength among independents, men and republicans, i.e. that it's more important that she hold on to Dems than he reach out to Indies. she'll have to address figures like those i posted above that indicate that while she does better than obama in certain states against mccain, she doesn't win any that he doesn't at least lead in, while she loses or trails in several states, including blue states, that he wins or leads in. she'll do this in part of course by arguing that he can go at the bottom of the ticket, but she's unlikely to promise that - who wants a veep who's more popular than they are - and at least some will be skeptical not just about the probability of the ticket but the probability that it would hold on to O's indies.

itals should be strikethru

I know this has been dismissed as lunacy several times... But is there any chance of the Dem elders brokering an otherwise inconceivable Obama/Clinton ticket to stop the bloodshed?

The math I've seen indicates that Clinton has no probable shot at this without some crazy statistical miracle and/or superdelegate coup. Does she believe in miracles, or is she fighting for next in line? I guess I'm assuming that there is something guiding her other than '1st woman prez at all costs' though.

the argument is not only that the continuation of the campaign that would hurt the party, in terms of time (which could go both ways) and resources, it's also that the process by which the candidate would win would hurt the party

petey, lots of people wouldn't want an obama/clinton ticket

yeah i wouldn't want an obama/clinton ticket.

just looking for some kind of ghost in the the hillary machine.

Fournier: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap_campaignplus/20080305/ap_ca/on_deadline_clinton

Clinton has little chance of closing the gap because Democrats allocate most of their delegates proportionally, meaning the loser of a close contest earns nearly as many delegates as the winner. Even as she declared victory in Ohio, Clinton knew that Tuesday's results were unlikely to draw her much closer to Obama.

It doesn't get any better for Clinton after Tuesday. Just for kicks, pencil the New York senator in for landslide victories in Wyoming, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky plus narrow victories in Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana and South Dakota — scenarios that give her a hefty benefit of the doubt and then some. And what happens?

She still trails Obama.

Her only hope is that a solid majority of the nearly 800 superdelegates support her over Obama. Party rules allow them to act independently, but it's almost unfathomable that these political animals would not ratify the results from primaries and caucuses.

is the water ok?

Does the VP spot really sell voters on a ticket anyway?

got it

Why is everyone assuming that Florida and Michigan won’t be rerun?

Also I don't believe for a second that 4 years isn't long enough to turn around 8 years of a failed administration. At least to a significant degree to make a case for a Dem second term. The Jimmy Carter II doom predictions are a little premature imho.

who's gonna clamor for that? xp

im glad the mathmatically-impossible thing is taking hold with clinton now - hilzabee 08

HRC has come back, but not far enough

david axelrod:

``We have not hesitated to draw distinctions between the candidates and we'll continue to do that," said Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod. "If Sen. Clinton wants to take the debate to various places, we'll join that debate. We'll do it on our terms and in our own way but if she wants to make issues like ethics and disclosure and law firms and real estate deals and all that stuff issues, as I've said before I don't know why they'd want to go there, but I guess that's where they'll take the race.''

look for big calls for her release her tax returns, plus those first lady pages come out in a couple weeks, don't they?

So on to PA-- anyone seen polling #s? I live near Philly and only see signs for Obama and Ron Paul--even in the suburbs.

You gotta hand it to the GOP, they know how to run campaigns. They are loving this. Thanks Ohio and Texas for four more years.

i think 2 weeks ago, hillary was up by something like 16 points, last week it shrunk to 6 points

xpost

Why is everyone assuming that Florida and Michigan won’t be rerun?

so your argument, counsel, is that MI and FL should be punished for moving their primaries up by being given a decisive role in the nomination?

Why is everyone assuming that Florida and Michigan won’t be rerun?

somebody tell me why I'm wrong, but even if this is revisited, would it not hurt Obama? (i.e. Fla - lol old ppl and heavy hispanic pop., Michigan for a lot of the same reasons HRC did well in Ohio?)

I may be way off base...

Hillary hints at Obama/Clinton // Clinton/Obama ticket:

http://wcbstv.com/topstories/clinton.obama.ticket.2.669799.html

Speaking on "The Early Show" on CBS, Clinton said "that may be where this is headed, but of course we have to decide who is on the top of the ticket."

Michigan is blue, Ohio is usually red -- I think Obama would do a lot better in Michigan than he did in Ohio. Even when Hillary was the only candidate on the ballot she only got about 40%, I think?

(xpost to own post)

However absurd it now seems, this might be the only way out that wouldn't leave Dem delegates (is "disenfranchising" the word I'm looking for?) Dem voters.

xpost hrc got 55, uncommitted got 40

omg this election this thread when will it end

btw i <3 clinton hinting at the superticket - its got pizazz and its def the best shot that second place finisher has at being president - losing then going back to the senate for 8 years isnt gonna help anyones chances - so YAY BRING ON THE SUPERAWESOMETICKET!

aside from "black man + white woman = YIKES", what are the arguments against it?

They're missing experience AND charisma! Oh wait.

Don't get this "Hillary can't win because of delegate math" argument. Neither can get an absolute majority and will have to rely on superdelegates. It's a big assumption that the superdelegates will automatically go with whoever has clocked up the most delegates, especially if there's a difference of under 100. Let's assume Obama stumbles badly, Clinton gains a string of victories, and by June can claim that over the course of 6 months' campaigning, there's been a change of dynamic and the momentum has swung definitively to her. In such a scenario, I can't see the superdelegates being beholden to whoever just squeaks in on delegate count.

(My supatickets, let me show you them) Actually, why not indeed? How different are their opinions really?

well yah clinton is hoping for Obama stumbles badly - but the chances of that are slim

maaaaaybe clintons backup plan is strongarming obama into picking her for veep aiming to be president 45

yeah, neither can get an unsuperdelegated win -- so what happens if between now and then we get a photo like this one:

http://img2.timeinc.net/people/i/2004/04/gallery/scandals/ghart.jpg

god i love that photo

It's a classic.

The memories.

http://www.gasolinealleyantiques.com/cartoon/images/opus/bk-ticklish.JPG

I was just thinking about that opus picture after Tracer posted the original!

I think it might be my favorite of the book covers. (Though the Deathtongue-as-U2 pose on the back cover of the one before it comes close.)

Anyway, to answer Tracer's question, if we get a photo of Obama in a bikini sitting in Hillary's lap, we have a winning ticket for the ages.

thread jump shark

-- remy bean, Wednesday, 5 March 2008 06:48 (8 hours ago) Link

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jumping_the_shark

ouch.

we need the Caspar Weinberger poem again.

http://static.flickr.com/41/119420866_1d54b6853a_o.jpg

where's the Screaming Lobster of Hope been?

http://www.sliderulemuseum.com/Ephemera/BloomCounty1988_SR_Aid.jpg

http://i31.tinypic.com/2u97thz.jpg

SUPERTICKET SUPERTICKET SUPERTICKET !!!

My God, he looks...demonic.

http://bkmarcus.com/blog/images/comics/LikeSenility.gif

oh man that Hart/ Rice photo has never failed to bring a smile to my face.

xxxp - LOL is that when Steve Dallas went nice and got a man perm? what was the impetus? head trauma or something?