Global Warming's Terrifying New Math

2011 emissions from fossil fuels burning and cement production: 34.7 billion tonnes

It is interesting that the Romans produced superior concrete, some of which has withstood 2000 years of salt water attrition, without releasing industrial amounts of CO2.

http://newscenter.berkeley.edu/2013/06/04/roman-concrete/

tbf they produced much less concrete than we do today.

Yes I know, but it is still a cleaner production method. Probably not clean enough to stave off an extinction event considering concrete production is 7% of the problem. But still interesting nonetheless.

Roman concrete unfortunately isn't much of an apples-to-apples comparison - totally different characteristics, most importantly that it isn't reinforced and therefore can't do the things we use concrete to do. And reinforcing steel is a huge part of concrete's carbon and embedded energy issues, though I don't know if the statistics we're discussing have already factored that out. But production methods could certainly get better.... China's fueled its building boom by dredging pond-beds for sand for concrete, which has been environmentally disastrous in tons of ways. I'd imagine it releases tons of CO2.

Volcanos also emit lots of SO2 when they erupt, but I don't think Huck is advocating geo-engineering (nor am I).

Assuming or blaming the Chinese for releasing tons (or megatons!) of C02 isn't going to get them to change their ways. It barely works for anyone else.

Trying to find one reason to have more hope than cynicism.

Not blaming, sorry! Was trying to find areas/ways that production COULD hypothetically get less carbon-intensive as a return to opus caementicum seems less than feasible.

nah, not trying to criticize.

Just noting that it doesn't matter who the polluter is because no one really wants to stop at a level that would matter.

i just assume it's gonna be geo engineering, as it seems politically feasible to spray more shit into the atmosphere, but impossible to prevent us from burning that sweet, sweet coal, oil, and gas.

30% of the Bay area's air pollution is coming from Asia.

http://pubs.acs.org/cen/news/88/i46/8846news3.html

impossible to prevent us from burning that sweet, sweet coal, oil, and gas.

Well, not quite impossible...

It's impossible unless we wipe ourselves out in some quick, neat way in the next couple of years, IMO.

a consummation devoutly to be wish'd

I was thinking of fossil fuels running out.

i just assume it's gonna be geo engineering, as it seems politically feasible to spray more shit into the atmosphere

i'm seriously anxious that some private fucker/country's just going to start doing this, and we'll all have to live with the horrible consequences that CAN be predicted, let alone the inevitable horrible side-effects we DIDN'T expect

if real life is anything like Highlander II: The Quickening, I don't think it's going to go well

James, so choad dumped iron off the coast of Canada/Washington earlier this year or late last.

Some "geoengineering" makes a lot of sense. Just painting rooftops and pavement white will go a long way to making urban heat islands more livable later this century.

As for the iron seeding, its just recreating the sort of thing that happens all the time when Saharan dust blows over the Atlantic.

Lots more questionable geoengineering (like adding sulfur compounds to aviation fuel, to be used only above the tropopause) will be widespread. We won't have a choice in the matter by then.

Knew that wd be Sanpaku from the first sentence.

http://www.weather.com/news/climate/2047-coldest-years-may-be-warmer-hottest-past-20131009

I don't know what's worse, the sheer irreversibility of this global change or the fact that the best case scenario for addressing it is just slowing it down by thirty years if we pull out all the stops- it makes you feel so helpless/hopeless, like a car skidding on ice and no matter how crank the wheel, you're drifting towards the cliff

We still have to pull out all the stops - our babies are in the back of the car, and so are the penguins.

the helpless feeling brought upon by the reality of the ~30 year lag will make geoengineering more and more attractive as we start to sink into this. conveniently for those in power, the geoengineering approach is much more aligned with our plutocracy than the alternative (conservation, living within one's means)

I think the worst thing about it may be that we have to get through brain problems / systemic dead ends that have stalled taking reasonable action for decades and show negligible signs of abating.

I've been listening to Alan Weisman's Countdown on my dogwalks. Seems we'll get through this with the help of a big dieoff. Thank heavens its been sunny.

We'll need to hope that happens in the developed nations and regions where most of the carbon emissions are coming from, yes?

Whoever recommended The Earth After Us, thank you! Loving it.

Yeah. About a decade ago I came to the conclusion that human population would almost certainly experience a big die-off before 2100. Makes me queasy to think about it, but foresight and effective planning seem like they will never gain enough traction to do more than mitigate the die-off by a small margin and perhaps assist the eventual accomodation to the new reality. It has happened before. Seems inevitable to happen again.

Zalasiewicz's The Earth After Us? That was me.

In the long view, population contractions are normal. For 3 centuries, Western Europe was spared from famines by Grand Banks cod and West Indies sugar & rum; for the past half-century, the world has been spared from elemental limits to agricultural production by Haber & Bosch's nitrogen chemistry and Norman Bourlag's grain breeding. Barring future discoveries of similar magnitude, it looks like efficiency in phosphorous recycling will determine human biomass. Not far behind comes the shifting precipitation in grain belts as temperate zones move polewards.

Material balances can't be evaded. I kinda hate that I may live to see balance restored.

That's the one, Sanpaku. Cheers!

"average summer temperatures in the Canadian Arctic over the last century are the highest in the last 44,000 years, and perhaps the highest in 120,000 years"

http://www.livescience.com/40676-arctic-temperatures-record-high.html

whoah!

Letterman with Mark Jacobson, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University. Dave did a pretty good job here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26Ggh3egFKk

by the numbers, doesn't mean much I guess

http://www.salon.com/2013/11/01/obama_signs_executive_order_to_prepare_the_u_s_for_climate_change/

Ocean Warming Faster Now Than in 10,000 Years

http://www.msnbc.com/sites/msnbc/files/article-teasers/11.1.13.jpg

C are included in B?

yep:

Two-thirds of Americans (67%) say there is solid evidence that the earth has been getting warmer over the last few decades, a figure that has changed little in the past few years. While partisan differences over climate change remain substantial, Republicans face greater internal divisions over this issue than do Democrats.

Just 25% of Tea Party Republicans say there is solid evidence of global warming, compared with 61% of non-Tea Party Republicans.

sorry, here's the full link:

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/gop-sharply-divided-over-climate-science

oh, i'm sorry, i meant to say NO. C and B are mutually exclusive

that's kind of crappy, graph-wise

Global Warming's Irritating New Graph

i dunno, seemed clear to me

"geoengineering approach is much more aligned with our plutocracy than the alternative (conservation, living within one's means)"

given that "living within one's means" is the mantra of the "shut the govt down" crowd, that might be the hole in which to crowbar the right over to the green.

Keep scrolling down here to see a comparison of Haiyan to Katrina

Super typhoon Haiyan: One of world’s most powerful storms in history from space

http://news.yahoo.com/philippine-typhoon-deaths-climb-thousands-092323892.html

TACLOBAN, Philippines (AP) — As many as 10,000 people are believed dead in one Philippine city alone after one of the worst storms ever recorded unleashed ferocious winds and giant waves that washed away homes and schools. Corpses hung from tree branches and were scattered along sidewalks and among flattened buildings, while looters raided grocery stores and gas stations in search of food, fuel and water.

Officials projected the death toll could climb even higher when emergency crews reach areas cut off by flooding and landslides. Even in the disaster-prone Philippines, which regularly contends with earthquakes, volcanoes and tropical cyclones, Typhoon Haiyan appears to be the deadliest natural disaster on record.

Haiyan hit the eastern seaboard of the Philippine archipelago on Friday and quickly barreled across its central islands before exiting into the South China Sea, packing winds of 235 kilometers per hour (147 miles per hour) that gusted to 275 kph (170 mph), and a storm surge that caused sea waters to rise 6 meters (20 feet).

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/09/disaster-in-tacloban-philippines-chasers-document-ghastly-scene-from-typhoon/

looters raided grocery stores and gas stations in search of food, fuel and water

In this case "looters" means "desperate people who might otherwise die".

Seriously. It's fucking survival.

Such a crushing disaster. Fuck anyone who calls these survivors looters.
Some Fil-Am friends are urging those making donations to consider NAFCON: http://nafconusa.org/

i posted about this over on The ethanol thread (crickets), but i thought i'd repost it here:

The Secret, Dirty Cost of Obama's Green Power Push

the worst part about the AP report is the headline (they should just say "Corn Ethanol" - the subject of the story - rather than implicating all of "Green Power"). it's very much worth reading.

so ... i've been reading up on new developments in climate change modeling recently and unless i'm misreading it sounds like we're utterly fucked at this point no matter what we do. am i wrong?