2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

I’m getting closer to predicting a Senator Clinton/Obama ticket. Strange.

I can't imagine that happening.

I wonder how many news outlets are going to completely ignore the Texas caucus.

With this conference call/disenfranchisement thing, probably not many of them.

Also, the idea that Hillary will find more exclusive dirt about Obama than the GOP is kinda a) giving Hillary more credit than she deserves, and b) underestimating even the crippled GOP this year, or more to the point, underestimating politics of negative since, well, Thomas Jefferson's run?

Pictures from a caucus.

gop pundits want dems to win in 2008 so they can blow shit up for 2010 and install the messiah (anti-christ) for 2012.... hillary is the poster child for a coulter/savage make-a-wish foundation book tour (burning) ... just as the dubya-presidency turned jon stewart into the butterfly, so would a hillary presidency for the righty-tighty pundits.

i think some in the gop realize that getting a gop pres, gop congressional control, and alito/roberts wasn't enough... either that or they're really not about hurting gays and killing baby killers. they know nothing actually gets done in congress without crushing your enemies, seeing them driven before you, and hearing the lamentation of their women! it's still the status quo unless they pound a 2/3 majority into congress and then it's elephantitus on parade.

daniel higgs was right when he swilled, "NOTHING IS EASY!" yeah, yeah, yeah.

i half-heartedly made the argument that hillary is hurting the democrats by staying in to a friend and he got real pissed, and i realized i didnt have a reason in particular to believe that hillary should drop out over obama other than that i like obama

-- max, Wednesday, March 5, 2008 5:14 AM

^^ also occurred to me as i drove home this evening

Obama still has a significant lead in pledged delegates and looks to maintain that lead. That should be reason enough to say if one should drop it, it should be Hillary over Obama. No?

<i>gop pundits want dems to win in 2008 so they can blow shit up for 2010 and install the messiah (anti-christ) for 2012.... hillary is the poster child for a coulter/savage make-a-wish foundation book tour (burning) ... just as the dubya-presidency turned jon stewart into the butterfly, so would a hillary presidency for the righty-tighty pundits.</i>

http://www.abrahamslady.com/items/LinenThreadLg.jpg
http://reneeashleybaker.files.wordpress.com/2007/12/david-lee-roth-jumping.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/57/Streetsharks.jpg

Good night!

Twinerothtoon?

somebody jumproped some bodybuilding hammerheads

thread jump shark

i half-heartedly made the argument that hillary is hurting the democrats by staying in to a friend and he got real pissed, and i realized i didnt have a reason in particular to believe that hillary should drop out over obama other than that i like obama

-- max, Wednesday, March 5, 2008 5:14 AM

^^ also occurred to me as i drove home this evening

-- BIG HOOS aka the steendriver, Wednesday, March 5, 2008 12:21 AM (31 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

uhhhhhhh how about the fact that he has more delegates????

by less than a hundred

and?

i can't wait for the hillary supporters-- those who thought al gore was the rightful president because he won the popular vote-- to start to argue that it would be acceptable for her to win via super delegates if she loses the democratic popular vote

i mean this is going to turn into the dem version of 2000 isn't it?? with florida again as the big controversy state?

would anyone be surprised if the florida/mich thing went to the courts?

also i haven't been reading this thread this week so i apologize if these two things were brought up but:

- why hasn't anyone--dem ppl, media or otherwise-- called out hillary for how distinctly bushian her candidacy has become!? and i'm not talking about her negative ads as much as this mutated persona she's taken on as the "down home" candidate who doesn't have it in her to "inspire" people or make "great" speeches. honestly fuck her for that

- secondly, back to the super delegate thing, are there any staunch dems in this thread who'd consider not voting and/or voting for mccain if hillary wins the nom even if she doesn't win the delegate count? i mean wouldn't it be the dem part saying fuck you to it's constituency? i'd be inclined to say fuck you right back with a vote for mccain (not saying i am or would do this, but i'd give it some serious serious thought) or by not casting a vote at all (or writing in obama) (basically a protest vote i guess)

Jordan, when has a non-incumbent nomination race been civil, polite, and happy happy?

It's like you guys forgot that political races aren't hugglez across the states or something.

Fuck. I just realized that EMP Pop Conference 2008 will have come and gone and people will still be playing with they Politigotchis here talking about Pennsylvania.

Escape!

The Boredoms will commence their U.S. tour, as will Stars Of The Lid.

Meanwhile, Clintobamamemontum on the LOL PRIMARIES THREAD! Again!

Y Eye will announce Obama endorsement.

Isn't the Hillary narrative now going to be, Hillary wins the states that democrats can win in the GE? Especially with she win's PE which seems likely given the similarities with OH?

What is up with all this talk of the "narrative," seriously.

so what's unlikely about this scenario:

clinton and obama spend three more months beating the crap out of each other and thus fueling the GOP smear machine for free with endless delectable word vomit readymade for context switching

it comes down to FLA and MI and clinton does some fucked up shit, manages to win on some technicality/court decision

the GOP, again armed with everything they need courtesy the Clinton/Obama shirfest and with human Democrats dispirited at what petty douchebags their nominal leaders have became, stop showing up at the polls in such numbers, thrash Hilary over all the experience she doesn't have after all and in Spring 2008, we're bombing tehran.

that is, the GOP, now cheery as heck, thrash Hilary for the sheer pent up hate of it

narrative = how the campaign are going to spin it in one easy word.

If this night is like the other surprise nights in the primaries (how many have there been now? 5? 10?), the person who reclaims underdog status and can ride it for a few weeks has the advantage in the next big important vote.

1. I can't believe that 3am ad worked on the stupider Ohioans and Texans that decided to vote, but oh yeah...the masses are asses.
2. Obama's been cocky lately, and it's not attractive.
3. Clinton's been personable and funny, and if it makes me like her, I'm sure it makes normal people like her even more.

Now there's another 7 weeks of this build-up shit, and I want to strangle Chris Matthews, Keith Olbermann and Wolf Blitzer.

Whoever wins will face the consequences of what Monkeyboy and Dr. Evil Grin have been doing:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/04/opinion/04herbert.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Maybe it should be a Rep. who gets to find a way to pay for all of this and explain to his people why they're not getting the health care other developed nations have?

.........

True...one more Republican term could kill the party for the next 50 years.

MCCAIN/HUCKABEE 08

EXPERIENCE THE MAVERICK EVANGELIZE CHANGEOSITY

i've never seen so many chicken littles in one place since my grandma moved off the farm in oklahoma, GET A HOLD OF YOURSELVES

can someone explain the caucus/primary thing in texas to me?

because if:

i) clinton has a single-figure lead in the primaries
ii) obama's got a smaller single-figure lead in the caucuses
iii) the caucuses are only 36% reported

it seems like the math points towards it being too close to call once all the caucus results come in. also according to wikipedia (yeah i know) the texas caucus delegates aren't allocated until june somehow, which i don't understand at all.

Of course no one is harming the democrats by suggesting that one of the potential nominees is an evil, heartless, manipulative person who cares about nothing but winning, and thereby taking up the standard GOP line.

^^^^ Fair point.

As much as it pains me to see this primary fight drag on and get uglier, it's hard to imagine party leaders "demanding" that HRC step aside after she's won the primary contests in California, New York, New Jersey, Arizona, Ohio, Texas and -- while they're tainted, symbolic victories -- Michigan and Florida.

xposts to thomp

After last night's caucuses, the delegates awarded in each precinct go to a convention later this month to vote in the state senate district conventions. After that round whittles it down some more, delegates are awarded to go to the state convention in June, which will determine once and for all how many delegates will be awarded for the convention in Denver.

it is like march madness but with less gambling and more drunkenness

Newsweek does the math: Hillary's math problem

collected analyses - http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2008/03/clintons_base_returns_in_force_and_at_just_the_right_moment.html#more

i've never seen so many chicken littles in one place since my grandma moved off the farm in oklahoma, GET A HOLD OF YOURSELVES

i think you meant "nervous nellies"

Of course no one is harming the democrats by suggesting that one of the potential nominees is an evil, heartless, manipulative person who cares about nothing but winning, and thereby taking up the standard GOP line.

yeah, see, the people who keep propping up that strawman are you and the other clintonistas

uhhhhhhh how about the fact that he has more delegates????

-- deej, Wednesday, March 5, 2008 6:54 AM (6 hours ago) Bookmark Link

by less than a hundred

-- remy bean, Wednesday, March 5, 2008 6:58 AM (6 hours ago) Bookmark Link

not to be a nitpicky pedant, but excluding superdelegates, obama's lead is still over 130 at this point.

Hills could win each remaining contest by 20 points and still come short on pledged delegates. But winning 16 in a row, not to mention having the big states in her pocket, would make it more justifiable for the superdelegates to lean to her.

*Brit runs away.*

except of course that's not gonna happen.

*runs away again*

the reason people say clinton should get out is that it's virtually impossible for her to win the elected delegate count. the only thing she can blame that on are poor, overconfident political decisions made by her and her campaign. like those that helped O lose TX. if she wins, it's going to have to be on superdelegates, and she's going to have to establish herself as the more electable candidate. to do that, she's going to have to establish that a half-black man can't win her greater strength among working-class whites and catholics beats Obama's greater strength among independents, men and republicans, i.e. that it's more important that she hold on to Dems than he reach out to Indies. she'll have to address figures like those i posted above that indicate that while she does better than obama in certain states against mccain, she doesn't win any that he doesn't at least lead in, while she loses or trails in several states, including blue states, that he wins or leads in. she'll do this in part of course by arguing that he can go at the bottom of the ticket, but she's unlikely to promise that - who wants a veep who's more popular than they are - and at least some will be skeptical not just about the probability of the ticket but the probability that it would hold on to O's indies.

itals should be strikethru

I know this has been dismissed as lunacy several times... But is there any chance of the Dem elders brokering an otherwise inconceivable Obama/Clinton ticket to stop the bloodshed?

The math I've seen indicates that Clinton has no probable shot at this without some crazy statistical miracle and/or superdelegate coup. Does she believe in miracles, or is she fighting for next in line? I guess I'm assuming that there is something guiding her other than '1st woman prez at all costs' though.