2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

excuse me, "blog math"

where might i find some of this blog math

fuck a david axelrod, by the way. i think i'm going to go back to not reading the thread now. burn the witch!

it's 3am, what blog do you trust?

http://bangbus.blog.com/

I've said this before, but there's more evidence tonight: this Democratic primary has been all about who can take advantage of umbrage. Whichever candidate looks like they've been wronged last wins. First, HRC is perceived as unfairly positioning herself as the "inevitable nominee," so Obama wins Iowa. Next, the media (and Obama/Edwards) is perceived to be ganging up on HRC and acting like sexist pigs, so she wins N.H. Next, the Clintons are perceived to be playing on racial stereotypes, so Obama wins South Carolina. Next, Obama is perceived to be the "inevitable candidate," and HRC claims the media favors him over her, so HRC wins Ohio and probably Texas.

Obv., that's oversimplifying things dramatically, but it feels that way to me tonight. What a way to choose a nominee. Meanwhile, the Red Meat party is patiently waiting on the side of the road to pounce on whatever's left of the Democratic nominee after this primary is over.

gonna be a long summer

http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

xxxxpost

So is this shit seriously going to destroy the Democrats' chances in the ge, or am I overreacting?

No, you've pretty much got it.

dang, well at least i was right about obama taking dallas, houston, and austin. i got sunburned from being outside all damn day (i think my feet are brokens from standing forevs?) 250 came out to caucus tonight for two precincts, had to address large crowds of actual adults and organize them, precinct 2099: obama 4, clinton 3 delegates YAY too tired for punctuation

now i get to be precinct chair and vote again in 3 weeks. balls.

Surely anyone who Clinton rags on is going to do well from that in a GE, since Clinton herself is so disliked? I can't see this primary doing any lasting damage to Obama that a summer won't cure.

can someone explain to me (with some kind of figures) why hillary seems to be the one (at least on this thread) being accused of hurting the democrats by staying in, and not obama?

It's not just that she's staying in, it's how she's staying in. The attacks she's making on Obama stand a much greater chance of hurting him in the general (should he come out on top) than anything he's throwing back at her.

Of course, the perceived negativity isn't helping her chances in the general either - playing into "what a bitch" rhetoric from the right if she gets the nomination.

I'm more worried about the head start McCain is being given and the general spectacle of the Dems tearing themselves apart.

xpost

doesn't matter who Clinton likes or doesn't like. Building a primary campaign out of "lol he's way too incompetent for this important job" = "EVEN HIS OWN PARTY DIDN'T THINK HE WAS CAPABLE OF LEADING THE FREE WORLD" in October.

Which is the problem with there not being any difference between the two of them, because there are no issues to disagree on so it had to get nasty and personal instead.

Texas primary called for Senator Clinton.

I've disagreed with Daria for most of the two primaries threads, but I'm totally with her on this one.

LOL at this "destroying the Democrats". There are sooo many ways the Dems and GOP can fuck up themselves *after* the conventions. The mudslinging is just a sideshow, dooders.

Because, you know, the GOP is so unified right now, and people will NEVER FORGET SPRING OF 2008 THE ALMOST OBAMA-CLINTON TIE. LOL.

I mean, when popular GOP pundits have to tell their followers to vote for "the weaker Democrat", that's not a good sign for the GOP.

I’m getting closer to predicting a Senator Clinton/Obama ticket. Strange.

I can't imagine that happening.

I wonder how many news outlets are going to completely ignore the Texas caucus.

With this conference call/disenfranchisement thing, probably not many of them.

Also, the idea that Hillary will find more exclusive dirt about Obama than the GOP is kinda a) giving Hillary more credit than she deserves, and b) underestimating even the crippled GOP this year, or more to the point, underestimating politics of negative since, well, Thomas Jefferson's run?

Pictures from a caucus.

gop pundits want dems to win in 2008 so they can blow shit up for 2010 and install the messiah (anti-christ) for 2012.... hillary is the poster child for a coulter/savage make-a-wish foundation book tour (burning) ... just as the dubya-presidency turned jon stewart into the butterfly, so would a hillary presidency for the righty-tighty pundits.

i think some in the gop realize that getting a gop pres, gop congressional control, and alito/roberts wasn't enough... either that or they're really not about hurting gays and killing baby killers. they know nothing actually gets done in congress without crushing your enemies, seeing them driven before you, and hearing the lamentation of their women! it's still the status quo unless they pound a 2/3 majority into congress and then it's elephantitus on parade.

daniel higgs was right when he swilled, "NOTHING IS EASY!" yeah, yeah, yeah.

i half-heartedly made the argument that hillary is hurting the democrats by staying in to a friend and he got real pissed, and i realized i didnt have a reason in particular to believe that hillary should drop out over obama other than that i like obama

-- max, Wednesday, March 5, 2008 5:14 AM

^^ also occurred to me as i drove home this evening

Obama still has a significant lead in pledged delegates and looks to maintain that lead. That should be reason enough to say if one should drop it, it should be Hillary over Obama. No?

<i>gop pundits want dems to win in 2008 so they can blow shit up for 2010 and install the messiah (anti-christ) for 2012.... hillary is the poster child for a coulter/savage make-a-wish foundation book tour (burning) ... just as the dubya-presidency turned jon stewart into the butterfly, so would a hillary presidency for the righty-tighty pundits.</i>

http://www.abrahamslady.com/items/LinenThreadLg.jpg
http://reneeashleybaker.files.wordpress.com/2007/12/david-lee-roth-jumping.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/57/Streetsharks.jpg

Good night!

Twinerothtoon?

somebody jumproped some bodybuilding hammerheads

thread jump shark

i half-heartedly made the argument that hillary is hurting the democrats by staying in to a friend and he got real pissed, and i realized i didnt have a reason in particular to believe that hillary should drop out over obama other than that i like obama

-- max, Wednesday, March 5, 2008 5:14 AM

^^ also occurred to me as i drove home this evening

-- BIG HOOS aka the steendriver, Wednesday, March 5, 2008 12:21 AM (31 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

uhhhhhhh how about the fact that he has more delegates????

by less than a hundred

and?

i can't wait for the hillary supporters-- those who thought al gore was the rightful president because he won the popular vote-- to start to argue that it would be acceptable for her to win via super delegates if she loses the democratic popular vote

i mean this is going to turn into the dem version of 2000 isn't it?? with florida again as the big controversy state?

would anyone be surprised if the florida/mich thing went to the courts?

also i haven't been reading this thread this week so i apologize if these two things were brought up but:

- why hasn't anyone--dem ppl, media or otherwise-- called out hillary for how distinctly bushian her candidacy has become!? and i'm not talking about her negative ads as much as this mutated persona she's taken on as the "down home" candidate who doesn't have it in her to "inspire" people or make "great" speeches. honestly fuck her for that

- secondly, back to the super delegate thing, are there any staunch dems in this thread who'd consider not voting and/or voting for mccain if hillary wins the nom even if she doesn't win the delegate count? i mean wouldn't it be the dem part saying fuck you to it's constituency? i'd be inclined to say fuck you right back with a vote for mccain (not saying i am or would do this, but i'd give it some serious serious thought) or by not casting a vote at all (or writing in obama) (basically a protest vote i guess)

Jordan, when has a non-incumbent nomination race been civil, polite, and happy happy?

It's like you guys forgot that political races aren't hugglez across the states or something.

Fuck. I just realized that EMP Pop Conference 2008 will have come and gone and people will still be playing with they Politigotchis here talking about Pennsylvania.

Escape!

The Boredoms will commence their U.S. tour, as will Stars Of The Lid.

Meanwhile, Clintobamamemontum on the LOL PRIMARIES THREAD! Again!

Y Eye will announce Obama endorsement.

Isn't the Hillary narrative now going to be, Hillary wins the states that democrats can win in the GE? Especially with she win's PE which seems likely given the similarities with OH?

What is up with all this talk of the "narrative," seriously.

so what's unlikely about this scenario:

clinton and obama spend three more months beating the crap out of each other and thus fueling the GOP smear machine for free with endless delectable word vomit readymade for context switching

it comes down to FLA and MI and clinton does some fucked up shit, manages to win on some technicality/court decision

the GOP, again armed with everything they need courtesy the Clinton/Obama shirfest and with human Democrats dispirited at what petty douchebags their nominal leaders have became, stop showing up at the polls in such numbers, thrash Hilary over all the experience she doesn't have after all and in Spring 2008, we're bombing tehran.

that is, the GOP, now cheery as heck, thrash Hilary for the sheer pent up hate of it

narrative = how the campaign are going to spin it in one easy word.

If this night is like the other surprise nights in the primaries (how many have there been now? 5? 10?), the person who reclaims underdog status and can ride it for a few weeks has the advantage in the next big important vote.

1. I can't believe that 3am ad worked on the stupider Ohioans and Texans that decided to vote, but oh yeah...the masses are asses.
2. Obama's been cocky lately, and it's not attractive.
3. Clinton's been personable and funny, and if it makes me like her, I'm sure it makes normal people like her even more.

Now there's another 7 weeks of this build-up shit, and I want to strangle Chris Matthews, Keith Olbermann and Wolf Blitzer.

Whoever wins will face the consequences of what Monkeyboy and Dr. Evil Grin have been doing:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/04/opinion/04herbert.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Maybe it should be a Rep. who gets to find a way to pay for all of this and explain to his people why they're not getting the health care other developed nations have?

.........