2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

Bush also carried white, working-class voters in 2000 and 2004:

http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/donkeyrising/2004/12/bushs_reagan_lite_coalition.html

yeah except the reagan figure in this race is obama

Only 126 of the 228 Democratic delegates from Texas will be chosen via election results.

.....Bush failed to capture any of the northeastern or Pacific Coast states that Reagan had won easily in 1980 and '84, and he failed to make dramatic gains nationally among the voting groups that had moved into the Democratic Party in the 1990s. Rather, the key to Bush's victory was reviving Reagan's support among the white working class. According to the post-election survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps/Institute for America's Future, Bush enjoyed a whopping 24-percent edge among non-college-educated whites, compared with a 19-percent advantage in 2000. (Clinton had actually carried this group by a point in each of his election victories.) Insofar as whites still make up 77 percent of the electorate and non-college-educated whites represent a majority of the white vote, that increase alone accounts for most -- perhaps 70 percent -- of Bush's improved performance in 2004.

...

....Barring [successful Republican exploitation of a new terrorist attack], the Republicans' "Reagan-lite" coalition does not appear to have broad enough support to dominate American politics for the rest of the decade. That should open the door to the Democrats and their new coalition -- especially if they can find a way to both mobilize their new center-left and nominate candidates with some comfort level among white working-class voters. The results of the 2004 election suggest that's the right formula. If Democrats want to win and bring their majority into being by the end of the decade, they should adopt it.

-from that Ruy Teixeira article linked above

what will mccain do (WWMD!) on healthcare? will he just be calling any Dem plan commie socialized medicine or have some alternative "reform" proposal or what

gallup tracker for today has Obama ahead for the first time so far, 45% to 44%:

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/021308DailyUpdateGraph1.gif

If nothing else, it makes me a bit skeptical when all of these conservative paragons are so united in their refrain that Obama would be the more fearsome Democratic candidate to face in the general. It starts to have a bit of that "Please don't throw me in that briar patch" ring to it. Head-to-head polls are pretty meaningless. You need to look at the swing states and the key voter demographics. By that measure, it should give us pause that Obama seems to be weakest in the demographic that was key to Bush's victories in '00 and '04. I take some consolation in the fact that some big swing state primaries are yet to come (esp. Ohio). If that state ends up deciding the nomination, I think that would be probably a good thing for the Democrat's general election hopes.

Oversimplified to be sure (and long, be forewarned), but this is an interesting discussion of broad political narratives and Sen. Obama, by former Sec. Labor Robert Reich.

obama camp hits clinton on nafta in an ohio mailer:

http://www.ohiodailyblog.com/images/mailer0002.jpg
http://www.ohiodailyblog.com/images/mailer0003.jpg
http://www.ohiodailyblog.com/images/mailer0004.jpg

http://www.ohiodailyblog.com/content/obama-mailer-slams-clinton-nafta

I can't make that out, can you find a version that's a little bigger...?

THAT MAILER HAS BLINDED ME.

Opposed NAFTA! Really, I haven't heard anything from Obama that I disagree with. Usually I have to ignore a few compromises when I vote for someone.

ugh, sorry, i didn't know the images were so big :(

LOL OBAMA IS HUEG

Really, I haven't heard anything from Obama that I disagree with.

So, the CULT OF OBAMA has fooled you, too. Break free:

That's not hope. . . . . . . That's a platitude

Usually when I join a cult, I notice little things like the Kool-Aid tasting funny. Not with this one.

But this is special, "self-glory," "empty rhetoric" Kool-Aid.

(Damn, too many commas).

FLAVOR aid.

NOT Kool aid.

Hey, is there an election happening this year?

FLAVOR aid.

NOT Kool aid.

-- Mackro Mackro, Wednesday, February 13, 2008 3:14 PM (Wednesday, February 13, 2008 3:14 PM) Bookmark Link

Yeah, yeah,yeah, and Meredith Hunter wasn't really stabbed during "Under My THumb", not "Sympathy for the Devil".

Is now the right time for me to make my "Okay now yr getting REALLY racial" joke?

By that measure, it should give us pause that Obama seems to be weakest in the demographic that was key to Bush's victories in '00 and '04.

o. nate

Yeah. Then again, we can take consolation from the fact that McCain is similarly weak among at least one of Bush's key demographics.

Is now the right time for me to make my "Okay now yr getting REALLY racial" joke?

-- HI DERE, Wednesday, February 13, 2008 3:18 PM (Wednesday, February 13, 2008 3:18 PM) Bookmark Link

Yes. Hopefully it'll be funnier than the Penn Jillette joke.

Though I have to say that cancer is funnier than the Penn Jillette joke.

who wants to start a thread for all the NON-prez elections this year?

It isn't. It was an "oh, all black people drink Kool-Aid??????? thatsracist.gif" lowball.

Rasmussen also has Obama ahead for the first time nationally.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

I think, in hindsight, today will be considered the tipping point in the dem primary race

(omg do you think obama has read gladwell? lol j/k)

Then again, we can take consolation from the fact that McCain is similarly weak among at least one of Bush's key demographics

Sorry if I'm being dense, but what demographic is that?

evangelicals? republicans?

The former is what I meant.

people w/ the last name "bush?"

xp

evangelicals?

Interesting point - but I've seen little evidence that Obama, with his social positions which are considerably more liberal than McCain's, would be able to attract many of them.

the goal is to get them to stay home

not liking David Brooks doesn't mean he's wrong. Ruy Teixeira's saying comforting things doesn't mean he's right.

the fact that Hillary beats Obama among white working class voters in Dem primaries does not necessarily mean that she is ultimately the better candidate to win their votes, and not just because of their trade voting records. such voters are, for instance, less mediated than those carefree, wine-drinking elites who love Barack. they've known and liked Hillary for years and years. that they have to meet the new guy doesn't mean that they're going to vote GOP.

black voters might be more inclined to vote barack, of course, and it took some distancing by bill to push them over, but they've obviously gone huge for obama once they realized they didn't have to be on the clintons' side.

It isn't. It was an "oh, all black people drink Kool-Aid??????? thatsracist.gif" lowball.

Only the blacks in Guyana.

Guyana, Mississippi!

"This is not Bill Clinton's backyard or his plantation."

http://newbrooklynnetwork.typepad.com/brooklyn_ron/2008/02/bill-perkins-sa.html

via Ben Smith:

"First Latina President"

Ken Vogel spots those words in a sign on stage at Clinton's event in Robstown, Texas.

"first interracial co-presidency" am i right?

"Hillary is our friend"

the goal is to get them to stay home

ostensibly by likening McCain's stated positions to Obama's (both against Gay Marriage amendment, pro-choice, pro-stem cell, etc.)

the goal is to get them to stay home

-- Shakey

No joke. 1000% OTM. Hopefully, that'll be McCain's great gift to this election.

McCain is pro-life.

pro-choice

Um, McCain's pro-life.

http://thinkprogress.org/2006/11/19/mccain-abortion/

xpost

Yes, but also pro stem-cell, which to an evangelical is not pro-life at all. (You know, because they're all fucking idiots.)

Robstown, Texas.

wauuu what a campaign stop

In 1999, the “moderate” version of John McCain said that overturning Roe v. Wade would be dangerous for women and he would not support it, even in “the long term.”

flip-flop, etc

here comes the substance

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/02/obama-takes-it.html
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/002855.php

infrastructure is way up there on my list of what gubmint should do in a positive sense