2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

some interesting things over at the daily kos from the weekend:

on obama generally outperforming polls (interesting especially in regard to polls' underestimating african-american turnout, which will play a role in both texas/ohio):
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/2/16596/61053/380/467458

on the impact of howard dean's leadership on new grassroots strategies (and how obama has capitalized on those strategies, while clinton has not):
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/2/1530/49441/494/466327

Hillary always ticks up in the closing day or two. She's certainly the favorite in OH, and she might pull TX out.

she will not win tx, and this is the god's truth

she's going to be clobbered in houston, dallas, and austin, and probably the surrounding areas. she will win the valley and el paso, but these are not delegate heavy areas. polls are also probably not capturing the number of republicans voting in the dem primary for obama.

you don't think? i've been expecting it all along. xp

if the early voting tallies, the demographics, the polling trends, and the republican support are anything to go by, i'd say her chances of winning texas are slim. yall can tar and faether me jhoshea-pats style if i'm wrong.

just guessing like everybody else, but it seems likely there will be two complementary themes on wednesday: hillary resurgent (because she will win either ohio or texas, if not both), and "the race goes on!" then two threads breaking off from that: for hillary, a look at how she managed yet another "comeback" -- anonymous campaign staffers talking about how once she put the spotlight on obama, voters started second-guessing their enthusiasm, etc.; for obama, a "challenge": how does he react when he's put on the defensive, what's the campaign doing to reassure their supporters, superdelegates, etc.

the hell of it is, after tuesday there's just wyoming and mississippi -- neither of which will be determinative -- between now and april 22.

how hard is it to say "no"?

she said no in just about every way you can. you are making sh*t up out of thin air because it suits your idea of hillary as a calculating politician who will inflect every response with subtle innuendo. not even the gods are as clever as you imagine her and her campaign to be. seriously, step back and breathe.

I'm assuming she'll lose on the delegate count, but it may be close enough in the vote that she'll claim a tie or victory.

yall can tar and faether me jhoshea-pats style if i'm wrong.

QFT.

eh if she doesnt win both there will be insurmountable pressure for her to just give up

i still think the nomination is obama's to lose, even if hillary pulls out narrow victories tomorrow. i guess what kind of sucks is that all that narrow clinton victories are going to do is prolong this shit when it isn't necessary to prolong it, and (obviously) increase the bitterness of this contest.

a lot really depends on the media play of it. the narrative is stalled, and 'hillary strikes back!' makes for a good next act.

tho maybe not as good as "shes ded!"

she said no in just about every way you can. you are making sh*t up out of thin air because it suits your idea of hillary as a calculating politician who will inflect every response with subtle innuendo. not even the gods are as clever as you imagine her and her campaign to be. seriously, step back and breathe.

what the fuck i just said the exact opposite

btw i spent about two and a half hours yesterday calling texas voters as part of the moveon obama party thing. (mine was in bed-stuy and was hosted by a drag queen.) called about 100 people, talked to about 20. i have absolutely no idea how much good it did, but it was kinda fun.

yeah, I mean *I'm* getting psychologically tired of the whole campaign, but that's not a good enough reason for Clinton to drop out this week. What I am unsure about is whether it would be good for the Dem chances of taking the White House in November to keep the primary going until the convention. Maybe it would be to have people mostly on the same side of issues (as opposed to tactics/strategies) keep going at each other, rather than have the right-wingers get to focus. I just don't know.

a lot really depends on the media play of it. the narrative is stalled, and 'hillary strikes back!' makes for a good next act.

yea, and this will be the narrative for a while if she pulls off narrow victories. but there is a long time before PA, and fortunately i think the delegate numbers will sink deeper and deeper into the media's consciousness, especially because obama will likely net a few more delegates when wyoming and mississippi vote in a week or so. even the clinton campaign has been saying that this is a race for delegates (at least that was their line around 2/5)

between now and april 22.

fuuuuuuuuck

part of the moveon obama party thing. mine was in bed-stuy and was hosted by a drag queen.

SAN FRANCISCO Democrats! (or LUCKY CHENG Democrats!)

Kroft: "But is Hillary Clinton a man?"

Obama: "Of course not. I mean — let me — I have no reason to believe she's a man. She had said she's a woman and I have no reason to doubt her.

Kroft: "And you are willing to go on record REJECTING these charges, or will you merely 'denounce' them? The charges that she is a man."

Obama: "Yes. No. As far as I know. COUGH-PENIS-COUGH."

Kroft: "Would you describe these charges as scurrilous?"

have the campaigns released their February fundraising totals yet? anyone here have the numbers?

hillary's camp has done a real good job of pushing the media narrative into 'hillary has momentum' mode i think. reading thepage made me all worried again lol

plus shes pretty convincingly making the case that she'll push on past tuesday - implying to her supporters that hope is not lost, dont give up the fight etc, which seems like a good tactic regardless of whether it is true that she will or not (it will of course also inflame the opposition so maybe it will come out as a toss up?)

have the campaigns released their February fundraising totals yet? anyone here have the numbers?

not to my knowledge (you said "campaigns" -- clinton raised $35 million, mccain $12 million, but obama hasn't released them yet)

i thought they would release the number today, but maybe they're holding back in the event that clinton pulls off narrow victories. since they've already said that their number is "considerably more" than hillary's, it'd be a way to interrupt the hillary-comeback narrative, i guess.

it better be more than $50 mil if he really wants that to effectively stop her - thats been the assumed amount since she released her numbers

fundraising numbers:

Obama
Semi-Pro
Clinton
Vantage Point

urmorbs post^

Oh come on, morbs isn't that old

The National Weather Service is looking for freezing rain to cover most of the northern half of the state, which will be under a winter storm through Wednesday morning. The weather service says if temperatures fail to crack the freezing mark on Tuesday, a "significant" coating of ice is possible.

Across most of southern Ohio, there's a threat of heavy rain and flooding. The forecasters expect 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in the region on primary day, with even higher amounts possible in some areas.

maybe the senior citizens will stay home?

(my grandparents are 90 and support hillary, but i think they got absentee ballots)

The Dallas Morning News gets hold of Clinton caucus "training materials," in which supporters are instructed to fight for procedural control of caucuses.

The materials say in part, "DO NOT allow the supporter of another candidate to serve in leadership roles."

It goes on to say, "If our supporters are outnumbered, ask the Temporary Chair if one of our supporters can serve as the Secretary, in the interest of fairness.

"The control of the sign-in sheets and the announcement of the delegates allotted to each candidate are the critical functions of the Chair and Secretary. This is why it is so important that Hillary supporters hold these positions."

Some of the moments on the ground in Nevada showed how crucial technical control can be, particularly when -- there, as expected in Texas -- nobody has any idea what the rules are. Really makes you love the caucus process.

Wow, now that smells disturbingly bad...

gff ok, sorry, so you were saying she f*cked up with her response? alright. i still don't buy that but i respect it.

once again i am shocked, shocked that there is politics going on in this campaign

hey tracer what do you think about this kind of politics?

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/2/201352/0048/265/467565

i mean really, how far does she have to go before you think 'you know, maybe shes being kind of sleazy?'

wow @ using people as signposts

deej i think that's a third-hand comment from a blog, is what i think

let's assume it's all true though - is it sleazy to hire a marketing company to get fake "supporters" out to hold signs for you? dunno

yeah it is, kinda

I mean lolz get some real black supporters

i lean more towards "something every candidate does but which no one is proud of and would be embarrassed by if rumbled" - clinton shoulda paid them more not to say things like "paid for"!!!

xpost well yeah, hard not to draw that conclusion - which makes me question the third-hand "reporting" and sudden vaulting to prominence on the biggest dem activist blog in the world

things which have resonance in people's preconceived narratives are the things which tends to get traction, and i think it's clear that the "liberal blogosphere" has determined that it is in fact hillary clinton who is the antichrist

I'm so glad all of you enlightened white people are out there to pick up on the outrage on things like this; it really does offset my complete and utter apathy/couldn't-possibly-care-less-itude.

(nb I support Obama but getting outraged about Clinton paying some people to hold signs for her is really stupid.)

stuff white people like: sanctimonious outrage

oh I'm not outraged it just seems kinda silly.

Do we notice, though, when a candidate does not stoop to the level of fabricating supporters or distorting facts or smirking? I think many Americans do.

dailykos is outraged

(nb I support Obama but getting outraged about Clinton paying some people to hold signs for her is really stupid.)

yeah i see dudes on the sidewalk every day getting paid to hold signs for men's suit sales and strip clubs and haircuts. not sure where the horror at paid sign-holding comes from.

i bet hillary paid the people who produced her tv ads too.

seems kind of irresponsible to run a word of mouth story like that without doing any research or questioning to prove that the people holding the signs were chosen to do so because they were black.

but i guess that's what blogging is all about.