A New Thread fot the Current Israel/Palestine/Lebanon mess

(my favorite bit is this line:)
Snow described previous diplomatic sessions with Syria as meetings where U.S. officials drank tea and sat for "five, six, 10 hours listening to polite, but long discourses on greater Syria and at the end of that having gotten nothing."

(Western power unable to grasp or exploit the subtleties of Arab methods of discourse shockah)

Well, NRO World likes swagger. Maybe that's why Newt is an "ideas man."

I have much sympathy for this, to tell you the truth

http://digitalwarfighter.com/wp-content/photos/alhaig.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beggaring_the_question

Russian wire services are now reporting that Lebanese hospitals are receiving strange corpses with no signs of physical trauma other than strangely blackened (but not burned) skin. No cuts, no bruises, just dead. And doctors are speculating that some kind of chemical weapons are being used.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/07/20/korea.north.usa.reut/index.html

http://harpers.org/rapture-ready-20060718001.html

hey I need the word of the Lord too! Who do they think they are, the fuckin Pharisees?

and according to their own index, we've been in "fasten your seat belts" territory for a while.

02 Occult
The lack of activity has downgraded this category.

04 Unemployment:
The US job market shows signs of improvement.

06 Interest Rates:
Federal Reserve raises the core interest rate to 4.75%

oh noes, we're all going to die! praise the lord and pass the smug grin.

this is the best webpage ever.

32 Mark of the Beast:
The U.S. Patriot Act has failed to get enough votes for extension.
33 Beast Government:
The possibility of the EU reforming into a smaller group of
core nations has updated this category.
35 Date Settings
The occurrence of the 06/06/06 date has increased interest in
numerical date speculation.

Yes, I wonder which date will come next? And what about after that???? Who can say? Only the Lord knows for sure!

SATAN'S MINION!!

http://www.sea.fi/foto/total_recall.jpg

-- i'll mitya halfway (mitya_il...), July 20th, 2006.

I wouldn't completely rule it out, but I'll believe it when I see more evidence.

Even Israel's pretty ghastly disregard for civilian life in bombing things like apartment buildings has the rationale that "that's where the Hezbollah offices are, so we drop leaflets and tell people to leave and then bomb, etc." I think Israel is wrong, but I still think it believes its own reasoning. I mean I don't think Israel is deliberately trying to kill as many civilians as possible (if it were there'd be a lot MORE deaths) so much as just showing an abhorrent disregard for civilian life in attempting to achieve their military objectives. Which is why I find it hard to believe they'd use chemical weapons, which seem like their only purpose would be mass death. But again, I'm not ruling it out.

With Hezbollah under attack in Lebanon and Iran unable to send significant reinforcements, there is some possibility that Hezbollah might resort to staging an attack abroad as a way of countering the Israeli assault. If so, it is highly likely that operatives already are on the move; the organization has been known to use "off the shelf" operational plans in the past, and its targeting information and surveillance would need to be updated -- regardless of whether an order to strike is actually issued. It is reasonable to believe that Hezbollah would find it advantageous to coordinate with [Iranian intelligence] again, as in past operations. Whether the Iranians would see events through the same lens, however, is much less clear. Tehran might cooperate in an attack only if it is willing to seriously escalate the current conflict in the Middle East -- which, given its many interests in the region, does not appear so far to be the case.

My Israeli father actually fought in Lebanon and has been very, very hopeful that Israel avoids doing too much on the ground. From experience he said it's terrible territory to fight on and will just get way too ugly for the Israeli side. Hopefully that quoted Israeli official is telling the truth.

-- starke (starke776...), July 20th, 2006.

I think this is the key issue for the way things will play out in the conflict. As the US learned in Iraq (and you think Israel would've learned by now), bombing campaigns are great for taking out state governments but are less effective against terrorists / insurgents. From what I understand, in order for Israel to "move Hezbollah" off the border, they will need to occupy that area. Clearing out their missiles and weapons caches will require door-to-door and cave-to-cave searches, and perhaps quite a bit of dirty fighting.

If they're imagining success through surgical hit-and-runs on selected Hezbollah locations, I suspect that success will be limited. Sounds like they're prepared to fight the war in a way that's preferable rather than the one that's required. Of course, the unpleasant alternative is another "occupied zone" that opens up the Israeli military to the same old IED/suicide bomber/raid attacks. Not to mention all the Lebanese civilians who now want a crack at Israel for killing/maiming their family members.

There's also the possibility that Israel is "softening up" Hezbollah for a UN peacekeeping force that will occupy the region. Who in their right mind would send troops into that snakepit, though?

This comment probably belongs on the "USA, Israel, and national interest" thread; it was scary how quickly the US House and Senate passed support resolutions for Israel's actions in Lebanon. No wonder conspiracy theorists have a field day with Israel; Congress can't agree that the sun is shining but the House vote was a swift 410-8.