I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

Last campaign speech he'll ever give (for himself). ;_;

Of course, he'll be campaigning for future Dems until he drops dead I'm sure.

After 2016, he and Bruce can just tour as a duo act, taking turns as headliner.

proportional map kinda reassuring

w/FL as tossup? maybe not v. reassuring

don't need florida

That's true in general. If we can airlift Alfred out, we can let the rest of it go.

Make the Magic Kingdom a principality, Alfred can be king.

i like the nyt main story headline right now

"Costly, Bitter Race Is Down to the Voters"

don't need florida

is that right? the proportional map above reads like "yes, need florida," doesn't it?

This is a pretty handy graphic of the permutations from the NYT:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html?smid=tw-share

yr eye is misleading you. difficult to judge areas (which is why pie charts are terrible.)

see http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html. give florida to romney and ohio to obama.

ha xp

already way past 271 electoral votes in the proportional map. florida's 50-50 as far as polls go but very unlikely to be decisive as far as the electoral math goes.

Yeah Obama can get to 300+ w/o FL pretty easy. It'd just be icing on the cake.

intrade up to 71.5% potus

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/11/04/tarnished-silver-assessing-the-new-king-of-stats/

ha i forgot about uk 2010 thing. that was major lols.

is there a thread for ppl just to check in to see how it's going or should i start three?

bobby z is all aboard the o-train

http://news.yahoo.com/bob-dylan-predicts-obama-landslide-061628696.html

thats not bobby z

Thought you meant Prince's old drummer for a minute.

the all important carp fishing vote

Darragh: The Choice of a New Denegration: the US Election Day 2012 Thread

"No retreat, no surrender," sang rock icon Bruce Springsteen, warming up Obama's crowd on a frosty morning outside the State Capitol in Madison, Wis.

iirc, this was Mike Dukakis' rallying cry the day before the '88 election.

(also, Springsteen's "Kitty's Back" was written about Kitty Dukakis)

aero, today's princeton map should make u happier

http://election.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/presidential-map-election-eve-2012-500px-lores.jpg

that dude colby cosh gets some stuff wrong about pecota. or at least hes kind of misleading abt it

not that silver isnt probably "overrated" or at least "over-visible" but

this cheered me up, considering the source:

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332590/twilight-or-breaking-dawn-henry-olsen?pg=1

you could say it's olsen being a "mr. me too" re: silver's methodology, but since it's coming from someone who's actively hostile, it's interesting that this rightwinger already sees Romney as toast because of his failure to connect with non-evangelical blue collar midwesterners

http://election.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/presidential-map-election-eve-2012-500px-lores.jpg

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSmeUlU6urmKPpu4I_S_VKRNmxSbEaC7he1YlCA-KYOkiyX1ov4BZPregQ

Uuugh why does the 538 forecast keep going down?

preparation for the big reveal... ROMNEY 400EV

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

Running one last projection based on this AM's polls. Our projected margin in Florida now Obama 49.797, Romney 49.775.

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRp2lhjUQmYye_keBZM2L8RRufdcGb-Yd_lHxTYHgWSw9dU7iU6

plz no florida recount

hi guys!

Obama 49.797, Romney 49.775

FFS

2000:
48.847
48.838

Alfred in...Swing Vote.

not that silver isnt probably "overrated" or at least "over-visible" but

― max, Tuesday, November 6, 2012 10:35 AM (41 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

if youre suggesting that there should be more stats dues in the media then yes, but as per the current situation where theres a million innumerate pundits and like five dudes running numbers id be happy if he was more visible

xxpost Yeah I'm thinking "Wait, how is that surprising, isn't that Florida anyway?"

plz no florida recount

― Mordy, Tuesday, November 6, 2012 11:17 AM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

come on itll be funny because it wont matter

Pretty sure Silver is off by a couple of percentage points. Let me check my math again.

Yeah, should be:

Obama 49.798
Romney 49.774

I would prefer Romney win Florida – just so we avoid a recount.

he won

http://global.fncstatic.com/static/managed/img/Opinion/110512_romney.jpg

Did you know that in IL you can apparently challenge any voter at the poll? It'd be fun to be King Asshole PIA Spoiler and just bounce voting station to voting station going "J'accuse!" all willy-nilly.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v134/tracerhand/igotthis.jpg

(but do vote, seriously)

What's scary to me is how many signs we saw that said 'Vote Pro Choice!' So who cares about policy or the economy??

UK bookmakers have Obama at 1/5 and Romney at 7/2 to win. They're pretty confident.

abortion rights are both a policy AND economic issue! xp

7 out of 2 ppl damn

Romney said he'd overturn Roe V. Wade enough times that i think it's fair game to use that against him

It might seem like a minor issue to those who don't have to worry about choice being taken away.