I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

serious asshole

http://i48.tinypic.com/1f4op.jpg

despite all the cheery poll numbers, i think i'm just go to have this low level anxiety until the election is over....

thinking about signing up for a shift canvassing for obama, at least feel like i've done something i guess

2 possible ways to visualize/make intuitive a 70% chance of winning

-> if there were an election every day for ten days, w/ the result every day independent of that of the previous day obama would win 7 days, and romney 3
[...]

― flopson, Wednesday, October 31, 2012 5:06 PM (2 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

really late to reply to this, but this would only be correct if the election was done by sampling, which it isn't. with actual voting it could be more like a 69% chance of obama either winning all 10 days, a 29% chance of romney winning all 10, and 2% a mix of results.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_VlmHNP9So5Y/S86arf3VhTI/AAAAAAAAFcI/yZ-JaIaYn2o/s1600/mcconnell.jpg

c'mon guys we've been over this re: Senator Blobfish

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01565/blobfish_1565953c.jpg

it's become kind of hilarious watching everyone on ile take a turn at coming up with a shaky analogy about what polls may or may not actually mean

Shakey's pretty good about making analogies himself.

eh, if you follow sports where silver gets most of his methodology from it's not that hard to get`a grasp on

that's why all the pained attempts to overexplain it are funny!

it's like if you put 7 obamas and 3 romneys into a bag....oh nevermind.

if daily elections were held in one hundred alternate universes, the reverse vampires would elect romney πx7 times

I was less trying to come up with an illustration of what 70-30 means--I'm quite sure everyone understands that--then why no one ought to be shocked if the 30% end of it were to happen (and, by extension, why the Republican freak-out of Nate Silver is silly). Surprised, sure, but not shocked.

"of Nate Silver" = "over Nate Silver"

80-20

O'Nate Silverpants.

Yes, up to 80-20 now--if I remember 2008 correctly, it will keep increasing until Tuesday (absent any evidence that it shouldn't).

kinda of excited that this election has lead to a nationwide debate over statistics and probability theory

They should skip the whole election and just roll a d10 every day; if it comes up 2, 6 or 7 Romney gets to be President that day, otherwise Obama gets to be President

xp: 2 or 7 now

Saving throw vs. mind flayers

Future presidents to be exclusively drawn from the worlds of baseball sabermetrics and Texas Hold 'Em champions.

mitt vs. death

daryl morey at head of nasa, depodesta at hud, epstein at treasury, beane at state, bill james attorney general

Would have excellent, but I think he died.

http://wac.450f.edgecastcdn.net/80450F/kicks105.com/files/2012/01/robert-hegyes.jpg

lasorda as henny kissinger

john schuerholz as mitch daniels
joe morgan as rick perry

jose canseco as donald trump

despite all the cheery poll numbers, i think i'm just go to have this low level anxiety until the election is over....

Quite understandable, but seriously, just do what I'm doing and drink a lot and play Xcom. It's doing wonders for my anxiety to blast Sectopods into fragments by like three dudes with plasma sniper rifles.

yeah playing ac3, but it's just...always....there

man, Silver's "there weren't so many assholes in sports journalism" cuts pretty deep

Lol at "mitt v death"

Romney & Ryan's Alternate-Reality Adventure

i don't care what they claim on internet comment sections i refuse to believe any republican has any enthusiasm about voting for romney

Mitt vs. Death by Mitt

Maddow shining spotlight on Florida's attempt to fuck up the voting experience

http://fayobserver.com/articles/2012/11/01/1214384?sac=fo.home

http://americablog.com/2012/11/computer-glitch-votes-black-florida-county-election-fraud.html

kinda of excited that this election has lead to a nationwide debate over statistics and probability theory

― ryan, Friday, November 2, 2012 6:35 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

me, too

How many of this year's Voter Fraud cases involve Republican tampering? I guess if the problem wasn't there much before, they are doing there best to prove it really exists.

so I lost my ID and I was pretty sure that as a registered democrat I'd never be able to get a replacement. I went Friday and they just asked for my social and gave me the card, took 2 or 3 mins, didn't ask for any documentation. Really?!

if the ID card had a photo, they could check it against your appearance and... bob's your uncle

uh-oh - carolina won.

So is AC3 worth it? The podcasty reviews from the last week have been mixed.

http://www.thenation.com/blog/171011/eleventh-hour-gop-voter-suppression-could-swing-ohio#

As a displaced NJ voter, by order of the governor, I can now vote by email. However, this seems to require a printer and a scanner, so it's not quite as easy as it sounds. Not sure if this will invite massive absentee ballot fraud.

That OH story is disgusting

bums me out

http://www.splicetoday.com/politics-and-media/the-smug-vs-the-stupid

Guess what: if the research is correct, up to at least one in five Americans have sociopathic tendencies strong enough to believe that full-on overt fascism would be a great idea and total improvement. There's a reason why Alan Keyes got the numbers he did when he ran against Obama, or why Nixon's approval ratings were nonzero on the day he got on that helicopter to leave office, or why Dubya's numbers never dropped elong a certain point. What do you do, how do you adjust your Enlightenment-era view of the benefits of rationality, reason, and democracy when knowing how fucked up a large enough percentage of people think?

Education, education, education.