I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

it's true in a v limited way of thinking, like maybe it's too close to call but not too close to put a probability on, one tells you something the other nothing

another way of looking at it is one way would help you win at poker, the other not so much

Everyone take a nap for the next 5 days.

Great idea.

gelman's better critique in another post was that as far as these sorta conceptual probabilities go, 538 is probably being *too* precise and rounding to the nearest 10% would be less confusing

xp

omg imagine the seizures when the prediction flipped from 60 to 50%

and in this case the only poker here is intrade or whatever. but as far as just understanding what's going on 72% vs 73% doesn't help people and can be deceiving in a sense.

yeah I thought of that too, when you round to the nearest 10% people misinterpret things in the other direction.

it helps show the movement over time, if maybe not day to day

and it would be way less fun to check every day

I think he should just do it like the homeland security alert system, 5 colors

top threat level soviet red

I'm guessing the actual results will be slightly better for Obama than the raw polls indicate because a lot of them don't include households without a landline -- missing a lot of the under-30 voters, who don't turn out to the polls as much as others, but who lean Democratic. (I believe 538 takes this into account but I'm not sure.)

the odds of Romney winning goes down the more he says things like this:

http://tv.msnbc.com/2012/10/31/romney-compares-sandy-relief-to-cleaning-up-after-high-school-football-game/

I saw that last night while watching Last Word (ugh, Lawrence O'Donnell) because nothing else was on. Was hoping some other media outlet would pick up on it so I don't have to link to his page.

(xpost) I imagine the world Romney carries around in his head looks a lot like this:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/__hspjzfC024/TDLdWOX1uMI/AAAAAAAABd0/FzCfyhWzQYA/s1600/pleasantville-Islam.jpg

Which I sort of understand--the one in my own head looks something like this:

http://s3.amazonaws.com/auteurs_production/images/film/dazed-and-confused/w448/dazed-and-confused.jpg?1337960424

the world in my head looks like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXT6KrX-PF4

"What World Do You Carry Around in Your Head?"

http://www.springfieldfiles.com/albums/food/0229.JPG

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQiZhghc1d3tWt0yjX1EbUYUoM5iaf6istSZIwzWQWaVEjLhw8Q9Q

^^ good idea, but needs its own thread. not here, plz.

Doesn't one big statistically misread involve the overwhelming, almost exclusive support Obama has among blacks and Latinos? I could have sworn I read something about how the various models have trouble with political data that anomalously skewed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxMD02zU9SE

mittens getting ruffled by a (quite conservative, iirc) iowa radio host about his political waffling vis-a-vis the stance of the mormon church on abortion

holy crap

wait what the hell?

would love to see the setup/context for that, it seems like mitt just starts shouting like crazy for no reason but OMG this guy is a basketcase, really bizarre next to that "silent statue of jello while crowd shouts down global warming protester"

O_o Kinda shows why Mitt hasn't really talked religion much on the campaign trail.

OMG this guy is a basketcase

hey how the fuck else are you supposed to hold all that shit together

the pacing!

Video is from 07?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MRbIwshAvU

this is an odd thing to only see NOW

xxpost Really? Wow. Can't believe it hasn't been passed around more, it's just...the blowsy short-tempered bullying quality of it, it's this glimpse into the board-room hardman Mitt that we got teeny little glimpses of in the debates, the total impatience with the person he's arguing with. I really can't wait for the inevitable tell-alls from his campaign staffers.

http://youtu.be/IFkaCji-UDA

20 min director's cut (rage portion starts @ 10:00

7:45 or so gets onto the topic it seems

OK obv he's a dick in this video but it's almost a relief to see some blood flowing here...I think this actually humanizes him. Also relative to his typical convolutions his argument seems (?) rhetorically sound.

yeah I agree, if anything reminds me of romney in debate #1

I mean he's way more likeable getting his panties in a wad like this — w/o simultaneously wearing that shit-eating smirk.

Yeah I'm actually with him insofar as, the question about the church actually is not really fair or germane. What's staggering is just the realization that there's some kind of human being in there who gets angry and goes ham, y'know? That it takes the specific form of this board-room motherfucker is the icing on the cake really.

Christ appears in Jerusalem, splits the mount of olives to stop the war, it's coming to kill all the Jews.

I love his hair when he's angry.

i always took it as a given that the reason his genial campaign trail demeanor is so contrived and 'robotic' was that he has to work so hard to stifle how unappealing his natural human self can be

http://olivemountainrestaurant.com/g/Olive-Mountain-Money-Mailer-Ad.jpg

have to say it really is impressive how little mormonism has come up at all in this campaign though (xpost)

interviewer: talk to me about how crazy your religion is...
romney: [smiles blankly]

He really does remind me of Bob Dole - when ordered by handlers to stifle his natural sarcasm he turned into a imbecile.

yeah I agree, if anything reminds me of romney in debate #1

true but even that Romney couldn't get away w/ "I'm not running as a Mormon!" which I suspect a lot of Christian "centrists" are dying to hear from this guy. It would probably be smart of the Romney Campaign to own this one and get it defined on these terms

i always took it as a given that the reason his genial campaign trail demeanor is so contrived and 'robotic' was that he has to work so hard to stifle how unappealing his natural human self can be

― some dude, Thursday, November 1, 2012 4:01 PM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

nice piece on silver - http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/109495/%E2%80%98predict-nate-silver%E2%80%99s-future-look-the-more-enlightened-sports-world

He really does remind me of Bob Dole - when ordered by handlers to stifle his natural sarcasm he turned into a imbecile.

I'm reminded of this guy:

http://www.supermegamonkey.net/chronocomic/entries/scans8/EA4_KenWind.jpg

Probably late to the party, but the Margaret Sullivan/Nate Silver feud is hilarious.